Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

There are more and more rumblings on social media that the Russians have been encircled at the Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha triangle 👀

no confirmed report

[ugabug]

Hoping this is true.

https://twitter.com/LuisHAguilarP/status/1506345747683360785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[Meclazine for Israel]

Don't want to get all Dostoyevskian on you guys, but Vladimir Putin is a very nasty piece of work.

I just have a feeling (from watching bad guys like Slobodan Milosevic) that Vladimir is going to get nasty with some of his larger weapons before this gets any better.

This is rapidly turning into a Bosnian War style disaster at the doorstep of Europe.

[It’s so Joever]

There are more and more rumblings on social media that the Russians have been encircled at the Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha triangle 👀

Don’t get my hopes up.

[jaichind]

Bank of Russia approves trading in stocks on the Moscow Exchange March 24, according to website statement.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1506594877999656963

[jaichind]

IFX reports that Russia will demand that countries it has labeled “unfriendly” must pay in RUB for Russian gas. 

[jaichind]

There are signs that PRC and India relations might be moving toward a thaw since the 2020 border conflict.  You can see media on both sides advocating closer ties to counter what both see as annoying badgering from the USA and the collective West on the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are signs that PRC and India relations might be moving toward a thaw since the 2020 border conflict.  You can see media on both sides advocating closer ties to counter what both see as annoying badgering from the USA and the collective West on the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

Well that in itself is surely good, regardless of the actual reason.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1506601245573849095

[jaichind]

There are signs that PRC and India relations might be moving toward a thaw since the 2020 border conflict.  You can see media on both sides advocating closer ties to counter what both see as annoying badgering from the USA and the collective West on the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

Well that in itself is surely good, regardless of the actual reason.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3171563/china-india-border-chinese-foreign-minister-expected-visit-new

"China-India border: Chinese foreign minister expected to visit New Delhi, a first since deadly clash in 2020"

India's view is that there can be no normalization unless the PRC moves the PLA to a position before the conflict started.   I always felt that on the whole, the PRC is in the wrong in the PRC-India border conflict in 2020 so I hope the PRC accommodates the Indian request.  I continue to support the PRC (and ROC if you look at the official ROC maps of the China-India border) position on where the border should be but clearly now is not the time to have troops settle the issue which should be done at the negciations table.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1506604722744172546?s=20&t=mXtgyu...

All is not sound at the top of the pyramid.

[jaichind]

IFX reports that Russia will demand that countries it has labeled “unfriendly” must pay in RUB for Russian gas. 

RUB surges below 100 on this news.

[Storr]

Even in war, kids will be kids.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1506550982653661189?s=20&t=Vnq3Pd...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1506604722744172546?s=20&t=mXtgyu...

All is not sound at the top of the pyramid.

Possibly notable is that Chubias had a Lithuanian Jewish mother and survived a 2005 assassination attempt by a former Spetsnaz colonel who claimed he did it because Russia was under the occupation of a "Judeo-Masonic mafia".

[Torie]

IFX reports that Russia will demand that countries it has labeled “unfriendly” must pay in RUB for Russian gas. 

RUB surges below 100 on this news.

I am confused as to how this worked economically. Prior to the change in the exchange rate, did Russia change its price for oil when it switched to rubles? Or does it just sell its oil in an auction setting? Is the discount for Russian oil now as compared to the 30% discount that Shell got?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1506632128557113353

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1506602728860094465

[Torie]

The cello is my favorite instrument in the orchestra. My Dad played it.




https://www.yahoo.com/now/kharkiv-cellist-performs-against-backdrop-053159122.html

[jaichind]

IFX reports that Russia will demand that countries it has labeled “unfriendly” must pay in RUB for Russian gas. 

RUB surges below 100 on this news.

I am confused as to how this worked economically. Prior to the change in the exchange rate, did Russia change its price for oil when it switched to rubles? Or does it just sell its oil in an auction setting? Is the discount for Russian oil now as compared to the 30% discount that Shell got?

This is related to the concept of the Petrodollar.  Before the end of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s oil was priced in gold.  After that oil became priced in USD which meant that oil exporters will get tons of USD that then gets reinvested in US treasuries.  Gas and other energy sources pretty much ended up doing the same.  This also means that most foreign reserves of most energy importing states have to be in USD.  All this is a free gift for the US government that can expect spontaneous foreign financing of its deficits.

There were fringe conspiracy theories that the 2003 Iraq war and 2011 Liyba intervention took place because Iraq and Libya were moving toward pricing oil outside of USD.  As much as I opposed those conflicts I never accepted these theories.

Anyway, the decision of the Biden administration to freeze Russia's USD reserves has energy exporters like Saudi Arabia see some risks in the petrodollar system and talking about potential pricing of oil in CNY.  Russia, which is now outside the Matrix, clearly has an incentive to push a shift of the energy trading system to a non-USD mode ergo its deals with India to sell oil in INR terms (using CNY as reference price) and now demanding Russian gas gets priced in RUB.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1506604722744172546?s=20&t=mXtgyu...

All is not sound at the top of the pyramid.

Chubais was hardly at the top of the pyramid, but it will be interesting to see what the other ‘systemic liberals’ like Alexei Kudrin do (not that it will make much difference since the influence of the ‘systemic liberals has been neutered over the last decade)*.

*As a historical note, as far as I’m aware Chubais was the only remaining government official (other than Shoigu) to have been a member of the reforming Gaidar cabinet way back when in 1991.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Talking of Shoigu, it is being reported that he has not been seen in public for nearly two weeks.

[ugabug]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1506604722744172546?s=20&t=mXtgyu...

All is not sound at the top of the pyramid.

Chubais was hardly at the top of the pyramid, but it will be interesting to see what the other ‘systemic liberals’ like Alexei Kudrin do (not that it will make much difference since the influence of the ‘systemic liberals has been neutered over the last decade)*.

*As a historical note, as far as I’m aware Chubais was the only remaining government official (other than Shoigu) to have been a member of the reforming Gaidar cabinet way back when in 1991.

According to wikipedia, your note appears to be correct. Speaking of Gaidar cabinet members, Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrei Kozyrev gave a very good interview a few weeks ago talking about the current conflict.

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/russias-ex-foreign-minister-on-his-totalitarian-country/

Some quotes I found notable:

 “All of these guys, mostly from the KGB, never agreed that the Soviet Union lost the Cold War to the Russian people together with the democratic world outside. They don’t buy it. They want to stop it. And now they think this is their last decisive battle.”

"“The very idea that NATO was the source of trouble is based on the old Soviet enemy image of it, an image which never changed and is now exploited by all the old customers from the KGB.”

“If NATO dissolved tomorrow, they would still claim the West was the enemy of Russia.”"

"“This is not about Putin himself,” Kozyrev corrects me. “It’s not one figure because the personality can be changed. The problem is the character of the regime and that character must be changed.”"

[Torie]

I assume Anatoly Chubais left Russia before resigning, correct?