Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Speaking of fake news...

https://mobile.twitter.com/polizei_nrw_bn/status/1505620541394366469

Police department in the German city of Bonn is warning of a fake video that is being distributed on the Internet about a 16-year-old Russian boy supposedly having been beaten to death by a group of Ukrainian refugees. The police's state protection office has launched an investigation into the video's fabricators.

I suppose the GRU's information warfare department is doing overtime right now, resorting to more direct means ever since RT has been put out of business.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Slovakia has confirmed the Dutch and German deployment of Patriot missiles (for 6 months) is an insufficient replacement for their S-300. The US has said that negotiations are ongoing, but the deal looks to be in a bad place.

Aside from Greece (which has stated its Osa and Tor systems are also necessary for its defence), there has been no mention of transferring the weaker systems. It looks like no one is willing to part with them for whatever Western Europe and the USA are currently offering as replacement.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/1505660843085684738?s=20&t=e4Gc6O0-UrzWJ...

It seems possible that the mall may have been storing munitions. Kyiv police released an image of what looks to be a shell casing. It seems like a terrible place to store munitions, since it is across the street from and directly adjacent to multistory residential towers.

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1505662974790352897?s=20&t=HbaL0m...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Speaking of fake news...

https://mobile.twitter.com/polizei_nrw_bn/status/1505620541394366469

Police department in the German city of Bonn is warning of a fake video that is being distributed on the Internet about a 16-year-old Russian boy supposedly having been beaten to death by a group of Ukrainian refugees. The police's state protection office has launched an investigation into the video's fabricators.

I suppose the GRU's information warfare department is doing overtime right now, resorting to more direct means ever since RT has been put out of business.

I looked up where this fake video was distributed... a German-language channel on Telegram supposedly for "news from Russia" with (Jesus Christ) 103,000 subscribers. Obviously, you'll find a lot of horsesh**t in that channel... "news" about Ukrainian "Nazis", how the Russian military is doing everything in its power to minimize civilian deaths (although those pesky Ukrainians just don't let them), foreign volunteers fighting for Ukraine are generally referred to as "mercenaries" etc. They even made good use of that recent Candace Owens clip.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Any bets on whether the wildfires were caused by one of those TOS-1A thermobaric launchers?

Probably not a lot of fuel on the ground after winter.

Fire season in the Ukraine ~August-September?

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile while everyone on Atlas are pleasuring themselves about the latest deaths of Russian conscripts in the trenches, Russian Hip-Hop artists are calling against the War Machine...

https://hiphopwired.com/1146002/russian-hip-hop-artist-oxxxymiron-organizes-antiwar-concerts/

https://twitter.com/norimyxxxo/status/1502311518242844683?s=21

[AndyHogan14]

Just an incredible video—damn the Ukrainians good at war time propaganda.
https://twitter.com/Nikolay_Nikolov/status/1505586549618008070?s=20&t=f0bw02...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

NYT says stalemate, Russia cannot take Kiyv and Odessa, so Russia is now digging into and fortifying the real estate that it has taken, and is blasting away at the cites from afar, that Ukraine cannot stop.*

*today to add to yesterday's destruction of the theater where 1,300 were taking refuge, it was a drama school were 400 were hiding

"Here are the latest developments in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate after more than three weeks of fighting, with Russia making only marginal gains and increasingly targeting civilians, according to analysts and U.S. officials.

“Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war,” the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research institute, said in an analysis. Russians do not have the manpower or the equipment to seize Kyiv, the capital, or other major cities like Kharkiv and Odessa, the study concluded."

...

"With Mr. Putin determined to pummel Ukraine into submission, Russia’s failure to achieve its initial objectives could presage an even deadlier phase of the war defined by large-scale casualties."

...

"Ukraine continued to effectively hold its airspace, British defense ministry said, forcing Russia to largely rely on weapons launched from the "relative safety of Russian airspace."

Another story farther down in the updates is that Ukrainian opinion is not limited to hating Putin, it is also anti-Russian. They perceive that Russians support this. Whatever Russia holds will be very hard to govern absent mass deportation. And then there is the fleeing of young Russian professionals by the hundreds of thousands, many to Armenia and Georgia, perceiving that their escape window might close at any time.


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/20/world/ukraine-russia-war

Seems more like the Russian will on most front wait out the mud season and launch a new offensive by late May. Seems prudent considering their inability to advance merely on the highways at the moment

I don’t know. All waiting does is allow the Ukrainians to fortify even more and give the west more time to send in more weapons (hopefully offensive weapons too). Also, the political environment in Russia isn’t going to get better over time. In the end, however, Russia may have no choice but to wait it out until May considering how abysmally they have performed thus far.

In fall 1941 the Soviet mud season was a nightmare for the Germans during Barbarossa. It was even worse then the winter because at least the roads were frozen and you could move vehicles along easier.

[Storr]

NYT says stalemate, Russia cannot take Kiyv and Odessa, so Russia is now digging into and fortifying the real estate that it has taken, and is blasting away at the cites from afar, that Ukraine cannot stop.*

*today to add to yesterday's destruction of the theater where 1,300 were taking refuge, it was a drama school were 400 were hiding

"Here are the latest developments in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate after more than three weeks of fighting, with Russia making only marginal gains and increasingly targeting civilians, according to analysts and U.S. officials.

“Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war,” the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research institute, said in an analysis. Russians do not have the manpower or the equipment to seize Kyiv, the capital, or other major cities like Kharkiv and Odessa, the study concluded."

...

"With Mr. Putin determined to pummel Ukraine into submission, Russia’s failure to achieve its initial objectives could presage an even deadlier phase of the war defined by large-scale casualties."

...

"Ukraine continued to effectively hold its airspace, British defense ministry said, forcing Russia to largely rely on weapons launched from the "relative safety of Russian airspace."

Another story farther down in the updates is that Ukrainian opinion is not limited to hating Putin, it is also anti-Russian. They perceive that Russians support this. Whatever Russia holds will be very hard to govern absent mass deportation. And then there is the fleeing of young Russian professionals by the hundreds of thousands, many to Armenia and Georgia, perceiving that their escape window might close at any time.


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/20/world/ukraine-russia-war

Seems more like the Russian will on most front wait out the mud season and launch a new offensive by late May. Seems prudent considering their inability to advance merely on the highways at the moment

I don’t know. All waiting does is allow the Ukrainians to fortify even more and give the west more time to send in more weapons (hopefully offensive weapons too). Also, the political environment in Russia isn’t going to get better over time. In the end, however, Russia may have no choice but to wait it out until May considering how abysmally they have performed thus far.

In fall 1941 the Soviet mud season was a nightmare for the Germans during Barbarossa. It was even worse then the winter because at least the roads were frozen and you could move vehicles along easier.

The Soviet road system was also overwhelmingly unpaved in 1941, further hampering the Germans.

[NOVA Green]

Time to rewind the Russian Hip-Hop Tapes...

All of y'all focusing on the Russian conscript deaths are missing the real story.

Russian censors might be able to shut down international news, but they can't ban Hip-Hop.

Straight from the underground NOVA Green Pirate Radio DJ "In Da House"....

[Logical]

Just an incredible video—damn the Ukrainians good at war time propaganda.
https://twitter.com/Nikolay_Nikolov/status/1505586549618008070?s=20&t=f0bw02CLOYYhWqpykCNiuw

To be fair, it's not difficult to do propaganda when your enemies treat the Geneva Conventions as a checklist.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1505695707742842880

[NOVA Green]

A few more Underground Tracks from NOVA Pirate Radio to be spread throughout all Social Medium Platforms...

We need to widely distribute the Russian Underground Music to throughout the entire global diaspora.

Y'All just sit here content at home and analyze and discuss the latest military glories and defeats, but yet aren't really doing s**t to crack through and engage in the world and not practice real truths that have long been evident from within the Russian Underground.

Gonna' call my Step Mother who spent time in Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland in her Missionary Work right now and see what her perspectives are and if she is able to contact people on the ground.

Atlas sleeps while Ukrainians die.... meanwhile Putin wants to ban Rap.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is wild:

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1505642779795283968

[It’s so Joever]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/598940-psaki-says-biden-will-not-go-to-ukraine-during-europe-trip

[WMS]

Manipulation of Global Opinion; or, Why compucomp and Red Fascist are Totally Wrong About Developing World Support for Russia

https://twitter.com/carljackmiller/status/1504896238826700800?s=21

Read the entire thread.

[AndyHogan14]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/598940-psaki-says-biden-will-not-go-to-ukraine-during-europe-trip

Not surprising that Biden will not be going to Ukraine. With that said, if he does end up going, I assume that no one will know until he is actually there (or even after he has gone and come back).

[Storr]

The "separatists" are really just thugs. These are the same clueless idiots that shot down Malaysian Flight 17. https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1505716936650469376?s=20&t=I3ha7TtHhQE...

[NOVA Green]

Atlas People talk about the "Russian Underground" but yet don't appear to recognize the extent of the repression even among activists who used to able to use a relative form of "freedom of speech".

OVD News straight from the Underground...

Fine ban me if I have quoted in full, but last time I checked this a Russian Human Rights Organization simply trying to get the message out.

On March 18, police continued to detain people in various Russian cities who were suspected of having previously participated in anti-war rallies. The detainees were charged with various articles of the administrative code, resulting in fines and detainments.



In addition, the police meticulously look for any anti-war statements of any kind. This includes personal correspondence on the devices of detainees and even bystanders. While vandalism can be prosecuted regarding anti-war graffiti, arrests and administrative prosecution can be initiated for placing pacifist symbols on clothing or backpacks. We know of a case where a man had his computer confiscated from his workplace because a man had sent drafts of anti-war posters by email.

https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/02/russian-protests-against-war-ukraine-chronicle-events

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile clampdowns are continuing elsewhere in Russia...

https://ovd.news/express-news/2022/03/18/kaluzhskaya-antifashistka-rasskazala-podrobnosti-proshedshego-obyska-i

https://ovd.news/express-news/2022/03/18/svidetelya-iegovy-iz-kurska-etapirovali-v-koloniyu-v-lipecke

https://ovd.news/express-news/2022/03/19/policiya-v-peterburge-zaderzhala-muzhchinu-emu-vmenyayut-statyu-o

https://ovd.news/express-news/2022/03/19/policiya-zaderzhala-sergeya-udalcova-vel-efir-s-oprosom-prohozhih-o-situacii

https://ovd.news/express-news/2022/03/20/v-tule-zaderzhali-mestnogo-zhitelya-po-ugolovnomu-delu-iz-za-antivoennoy

[NOVA Green]

Wait, six generals now? I'm starting to lose count.

I found the names on this list: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/thfqt9/list_of_deadcaptured_russian_officers_march_17/

Just looking at colonel, major, and captain officer losses, it's clear the VDV has been decimated (VDV officers bolded).

Colonels/Lieutenant Colonels:
 
Colonel Viktor Ivanovich Isaikin (killed Mar 2)

Colonel Konstantin Ogiy, Head of Kemerovo SOBR unit, Rosgvardiya (killed Feb 28)

Colonel Konstantin Zizevski, 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment (killed Mar 5)

Colonel Sergey Karasev, Commander, 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade (Ulyanovsk) (Killed Mar 11)

Colonel Andrei Zakharov, Battalion-tactical group Commander, 6th Tank Regiment (Chebarkul) , 90th Tank division (killed Mar 10) (given Order of Courage in 2016)

Colonel Sergei Sukharev, Commander, 331st VDV Guards Airborne Regiment (Kostroma), 98th Airborne Division (killed Mar 17)

Colonel Igor Nikolaev, Commander, 3rd Motor Rifle Division (Valuyki) (killed Mar 16)

Colonel Ruslan Rudnev, Commander, 120th Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment (Donma) (Pilot, Su-34?, killed Mar 1, given Order of Courage)

Colonel Sergei Ivanovich Porokhnya, Commander, 12th Engineering Brigade (killed)

Colonel Nikolai Ovcharenko, Head of Engineer Troops, Western Military District (killed)

Navy Captain (1st Rank) Andrey Nikolaevich Paliy, Deputy Commander, Black Sea Fleet (killed)

Lieutenant Colonel Yuri Agarkov, Commander, 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. (killed Mar

Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Sofronov, Commander of the 61st Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, (killed Mar 5)

Lieutenant Colonel Denis Glebov, Deputy Commander of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade (killed Mar 5, given Order of Courage)

Lieutenant Colonel Okruzhnov Alexander Nikolaevich, Head of Artillery, 104th VDV Regiment, 76th Airborne Division (killed Mar 7)

Lieutenant Colonel Alexey Narzullaevich Khasanov, Deputy Commander, 31st Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment (pilot, Su-30SM, killed Mar 5)

Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Chervov, Deputy Commander, Aviation Regiment (Voronezh) (Pilot, Su-25, killed Mar 7)

Lieutenant Colonel Renat Gaisin (killed)

Lieutenant Colonel Sergey Savvateev, Deputy Commander, SOBR unit (Vladimir), Rosgvardiya (killed)

Majors:

Major Andrei Petrovich Burlakov, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Secret Service, Chief of Intelligence of Regiment, Rosgvardia (killed Mar 10)

Major Ruslan Leonov, Spetsnaz company commander (killed Mar 10)

Major Alexei Ilnitsky, deputy battalion commander, VDV 11th Air Assault Brigade (Ulan-Ude) (killed, given Order of Courage)

Major Bezborodov Dmitry Valeryevich, Rosgvardiya battalion commander (killed)

Major Vorsyuchenko Alexey Vasilyevich, VDV Unit #81430 HQ, 76th Airborne SAM Regiment (killed)

Major Dmity Bezborodov Bezzhizninski, Operational Battalion Commander, Rosgvardia (killed)

Major Alexander Sergeevich Fedorov, Chief of Communications and Deputy Chief of Staff of Unit #47130, 103rd Rocket Brigade (Ulan-Ude, Divizionnaya station) (killed Mar 15)

Major Ruslan Vladimirovich Petrukhin, Deputy Commander, 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army, Eastern Military District (killed Mar 11)

Major Sergei Krylov, Deputy Commander, 331st VDV Guards Airborne Regiment (Kostroma), 98th Airborne Division (killed Mar 17)

Major Sergey Vladimirovich Kashansky, GRU/GU 24th SpetsNaz Brigade? (killed)

Major Dmitry Bukatin, 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade (Baltiysk, Kaliningrad) (killed)

Major Patskalev Oleg Mikhailovich, Deputy Commander, 2nd Battalion, 331st VDV Guards Airborne Regiment (Kostroma), 98th Guards Airborne Division (killed)

Captains:

Captain Maklagin Vyacheslav Vyacheslavovich (killed Feb 25, given Order of Courage)

Captain Aleksey Aleksandrovich Chuchmanov, GRU/GU 3rd SpetsNaz Brigade (Tolyatti) (killed Mar 3, 2022)

Captain Yevgeny Ivanov, platoon commander, Russian 247th Guards Assault Caucasian Cossack Regiment (killed)

Captain Sergei Aleksandrovich Visyach (killed)

Captain Alexey Glushchak, GRU/GU 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade (killed, given Order of Courage)

Captain Ilya Kuptsov, VDV 76th Air Assault Division, Intelligence Department (Pskov) (killed)

Captain Ivan Sergeevich Afanasyev (Pilot, Ka-52?, killed)

Captain Radzhabov Rabazan Gasainievich (Pilot, killed)

Captain Emelyanchik Sergei Stanislavovich (Pilot, Mi-28n?, killed Mar 4)

Captain Alexander Vladimirovich Shokun, Chief of Communications, VDV 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade (Ulan-Ude) (killed)

Captain Nikitin Alexey Nikolaevich, 1141st Guards Artillery Regiment, 7th VDV Guards Mountain Air Assault Division (Novorossiysk) (killed)

Possibly another to add to the list?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-naval-commander-shot-dead-claims-ukraine-btm20qx85

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1505631245220421633

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There's something very Baudrillardian about the apparently quite normal and productive negotiating process chugging merrily along while events in the theater of combat get more and more extreme and the invading forces cross more and more lines that can't be uncrossed. The war is abominable and it isn't. It's being prosecuted rationally and with restraint and it isn't. Putin and Zelenksy don't want a negotiated peace and they do. Welcome to liquid-modern warfare.

[Frodo]

Here is a question:

Who has the upper hand in these negotiations?  Who is negotiating from a 'position of strength'?  Is it Zelenskyy or Putin?  

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Here is a question:

Who has the upper hand in these negotiations?  Who is negotiating from a 'position of strength'?  Is it Zelenskyy or Putin?  

Nobody really knows. The fact that the Russian starting position was surprisingly modest suggests the former, but the fact that talks don't seem to have moved very far away from that starting position (yet) suggests the latter.