Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1499708066681573379

[It’s so Joever]

If we sent troops into West Ukraine and did humanitarian airlifts, Putin would back down or be overthrown.

Sanctions are literally not enough at this point, even JPMorgan projects that it will only be akin to 1998 which just isn’t enough to change things.

[It’s so Joever]

Who here still genuinely thinks letting Russia do whatever they want in Ukraine and hoping sanctions work is the best option?

All of the non-idiots

This fear is literally what enables the Russian war machine to churn along unimpeded. It started when we said we wouldn’t send troops to Ukraine back when this was a hypothetical, and it continues onwards. Russia is only going to face a temporary economic recession from this and will gain Ukraine in the end. Putin is maybe not as mad as I thought, he knows how scared the West is and he is manipulating that fear.
Again, the idea that involvement would immediately result in WW3 and nuclear war is based in the assumption that Russian leadership is composed of robots who do not care if Russia dies and who don’t have human stakes in the game. Ironically, dehumanizing the Russians here has led to irrational calculus.
The truth has always been that Russian generals and leadership are doing this because they can and will get away with this with only a slap on the wrist and a greatly expanded Russia and a public who will come around when Ukraine falls and the Russian empire is restored. They probably calculated that the West would be too scared to act beyond sanctions, and they were right.

[Torie]

Economic Ties Among Nations Spur Peace. Or Do They?


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/business/economy/ukraine-russia-global-economy.html

This article delves into the centuries long debate about whether and when economic interdependence fosters peace or vulnerability. It is a mixed and complicated “bag.”  The bit that I found most arresting in the article was this:

“In terms of the current crisis, Mr. Haass argued, in some ways the economic benefits were not mutual enough. “The Germans needed Russian gas much more than Russia needs exports, because they can make up for lost revenue with higher prices,” he said.

“That’s where Europe handled the relationship all wrong,” Mr. Haass added. “The leverage wasn’t reciprocal.”

Putin may well have underestimated the unity of the West when it came to sanctions and its willingness to endure the economic pain of imposing them, but in the end it does not matter much, because the Russian economy is just not that vulnerable to disruptions from its interdependence. It is easier said than done to stop buying Russian raw materials while in tandem forcing market prices down.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

 Was  Discussed and rejected For obvious reasons.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Microsoft suspends new sales of all products and services in Russia.

(Although it could be argued that this can only help Russia technologically...

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

 Was  Discussed and rejected For obvious reasons.

That's for the best then. Rather not test though theory that Putin isn't rational anymore.

[Storr]

Absolute legends:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499749324187705348?s=20&t=n8WdJBZ...

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Sweden Democrats just did a u-turn and now support NATO membership. There is now a pro-NATO majority in Parliament, with all the Alliance parties + SD.

[Torie]

Anyway, the West clearly appears to be approaching the limits of sanctions. The shift towards seizing the yachts and homes of Russian businessmen abroad clearly smacks of desperation.

I don't see it as desperate at all. Giving the oligarchs a direct personal incentive to get back to the pre-invasion situation (by getting rid of Putin) seems like an obvious move. Many (arguably most) of the playgrounds of the rich are located in Western countries or small island nations dependent on the West, so if those are off limits it becomes a lot less enjoyable to be an oligarch. 

That assumes that Putin needs the oligarchs more than the oligarchs need Putin.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21

Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I laughed hard at this.
Linking it here for sake of anyone else who might find it funny/nice to watch/whatever.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21

Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

Eritrea is a joke country.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

This is a war-crime right?

https://reddit.com/r/2Russophobic4you/comments/t5nhu2/russian_medical_vehicles_transporting_ammunition/

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Setting the stage for the war crimes trials down the line.

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Square root of feck all.

[Splash]

A background briefing with an official from the US Department of Defense just concluded. Here are the highlights:

Russia has committed 92 percent of its pre-invasion force so far, which is up from 90 percent as of yesterday.

The Ukrainian Air Force is still mostly intact.

The Russian siege or Mariupol is ongoing. Other Russian forces seem to be making a land-based push towards Odessa, and the possibility of an amphibious assault near the city still exists.

Here's a Twitter thread with additional information for those interested:

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1499781037139927040

[pppolitics]

Belarusian Forces Will Not Take Part in Ukraine War, Lukashenko Says

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said on Friday that the Belarusian armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine.

A close Russian ally, Lukashenko said he spoke to President Vladimir Putin at length by telephone on Friday. Russia has used Belarusian territory to carry out a multi-pronged invasion of Ukraine.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Setting the stage for the war crimes trials down the line.

Are those to be done in absentia?

[T'Chenka]

Belarusian Forces Will Not Take Part in Ukraine War, Lukashenko Says

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said on Friday that the Belarusian armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine.

A close Russian ally, Lukashenko said he spoke to President Vladimir Putin at length by telephone on Friday. Russia has used Belarusian territory to carry out a multi-pronged invasion of Ukraine.

Did the Belarussian military not already cross the border into Ukraine?

[Cassius]

Of course, despite the fact that any war crimes investigation is going to be purely symbolic because Moscow is not a member of the ICC (just the US funnily enough), the only effect I can see if an attempt to arraign from afar the Russian leadership for war crimes is the strengthening of Vladimir Putin’s position in the Russian government, because if, somehow, a war crimes trial did take place, you’d probably have to arraign all of the other members of the government as well (plus military commanders etc). They, obviously, will not be interested in this happening.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Setting the stage for the war crimes trials down the line.

Are those to be done in absentia?

Realistically, if the war were to escalate & Putin were to be removed/allowed by the usurping oligarchs/generals to be dragged to international court, then he could obviously be tried & sentenced. However, the ICC doesn't conduct trials in absentia, so if Putin isn't removed or is removed but still isn't allowed by those who removed him to be dragged to international court, then the ICC would just issue an arrest warrant, meaning that any country signed onto ICC jurisdiction would have an obligation to immediately arrest him should he enter their jurisdiction. So, his "punishment" would basically be to just never leave Russia or an allied country thereof again for fear of being detained, tried, sentenced, & punished.

Of course, despite the fact that any war crimes investigation is going to be purely symbolic because Moscow is not a member of the ICC

To clarify, the Court does have jurisdiction over actions taken on Ukrainian territory, though, so if Putin commits war crimes in Ukraine *&* the ICC were to somehow successfully detain him, then he could be tried regardless of Russia's status. Of course, however, the latter pre-requisite condition necessary for a trial would obviously be infinitely easier said than done.

[Logical]

Typical Germans lol
https://twitter.com/MKarnitschnig/status/1499538553990168578

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/un_hrc/status/1499696876601462789?s=21
Some familiar voting patterns…

…and some familiar @$$holes in the comments.

What is the practical effect of this?

Setting the stage for the war crimes trials down the line.

Are those to be done in absentia?

Realistically, if the war were to escalate & Putin were to be removed/allowed by the usurping oligarchs/generals to be dragged to international court, then he could obviously be tried & sentenced. However, the ICC doesn't conduct trials in absentia, so if Putin isn't removed or is removed but still isn't allowed by those who removed him to be dragged to international court, then the ICC would just issue an arrest warrant, meaning that any country signed onto ICC jurisdiction would have an obligation to immediately arrest him should he enter their jurisdiction. So, his "punishment" would basically be to just never leave Russia or an allied country thereof again for fear of being detained, tried, sentenced, & punished.

Of course, despite the fact that any war crimes investigation is going to be purely symbolic because Moscow is not a member of the ICC

To clarify, the Court does have jurisdiction over actions taken on Ukrainian territory, though, so if Putin commits war crimes in Ukraine *&* the ICC were to somehow successfully detain him, then he could be tried regardless of Russia's status. Of course, however, the latter pre-requisite condition necessary for a trial would obviously be infinitely easier said than done.

Thank you. So the ICC as a grand jury can conduct a hearing without the defendant and issue an arrest warrant I take it. I was actually pondering the issues in my head last night. Is that what happened to Miloslovic?