Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1499395103957434369?t=f-yAhOUWL77MFl63W...

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1499395103957434369?t=f-yAhOUWL77MFl63W...

Very good chance such a forced soldier would surrender to the Ukranians or attempt to kill his own countrymen.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1499395103957434369?t=f-yAhOUWL77MFl63W...

This is a good recipe for an armed revolt.

[emailking]

In the thread he says it's unlikely to pass.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1499395103957434369?t=f-yAhOUWL77MFl63W...

Almost sounds like some World War I style deal...

Pretty sure there was many an Irish Rebel who fought on the battlefields of Europe under the Union Jack who came back home to Ireland with their military experience and used it liberate their land.

Hell, even look at US Vietnam Vets who came home and joined the Black Liberation Movement as another example.

[NOVA Green]

Argentina declines to sanction Russia.

"Argentina will not sanction Russia for its war on Ukraine, Argentina's foreign minister, Santiago Cafiero, said. “Argentina does not consider unilateral sanctions a mechanism to generate peace, harmony or frank dialogue that serves to save lives,” he said on Thursday. He added that Argentina would not be able to make as much of an impact as Russia’s larger trading partners because “Argentina does not really have such a powerful economic interdependence with Russia.” The foreign minister said, however, that Argentina would accept refugees from Ukraine."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/03/world/russia-ukraine

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Do the Russians just not understand the concept of moral? Insert joke about the stereotypical depressingness of Russian life here, but a third of their army is a bunch of teenagers they told were just doing a joint exercise before throwing them into an invasion and now they want to reenforce with a the even less disciplined Belarusian army coming right off of putting down major unrest and  Russians literally arrested because they don’t want to be in this fight.

Is the strategy here to create so many prisoners the Ukrainians run out of food?

[Meclazine for Israel]

In protest of the Ukrainian invasion, I have removed the font "Vladimir" from my PC for any future work projects.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1499395103957434369?t=f-yAhOUWL77MFl63W...

Crazy legislative proposals in Russia are nothing new. In 2013 or 2014 some Duma member proposed a bill stipulating that gays would be publicly whipped by Cossacks. Didn't go anywhere, but just goes to show that the Overton window in Russia is on a completely different planet than ours.

[Former President tack50]

What do you'll think are the odds that Putin ends up being deposed and who are the most likely candidate's to replace him?

The latest betting odds on  Zelensky being Prez of Ukraine as of April 22nd, 2022 is 54/46.  The odds on Putin being Perz of Russia as of Dec 31 2022 is 78/22.

Worth noting that pre-war at least Zelensky was a mild underdog for reelection, while of course Putin does not have to worry about such unimportant things like elections

[jaichind]

What do you'll think are the odds that Putin ends up being deposed and who are the most likely candidate's to replace him?

The latest betting odds on  Zelensky being Prez of Ukraine as of April 22nd, 2022 is 54/46.  The odds on Putin being Perz of Russia as of Dec 31 2022 is 78/22.

Worth noting that pre-war at least Zelensky was a mild underdog for reelection, while of course Putin does not have to worry about such unimportant things like elections

All may be true but the betting odds are for Zelensky to be Prez on April 22nd, 2022.  The next Ukrainian Prez election is in 2024.  The current 46% betting odds for Zelensky not to be Prez by April 22nd 2022 would be
a) natural death - very unlikely
b) killed by Russin forces
c) removed from power by Russian forces
d) resigned to make way for talks with Russians
e) resigned as part of peace deal with Russians

[Flyersfan232]

What do you'll think are the odds that Putin ends up being deposed and who are the most likely candidate's to replace him?

The latest betting odds on  Zelensky being Prez of Ukraine as of April 22nd, 2022 is 54/46.  The odds on Putin being Perz of Russia as of Dec 31 2022 is 78/22.

Worth noting that pre-war at least Zelensky was a mild underdog for reelection, while of course Putin does not have to worry about such unimportant things like elections

prewar polls were sstarting to turn against him this I mean do remember he didn’t take this whole thing seriously despite every intelligence on the planet warning him that it was they didn’t mobilize the army until the invasion started

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/jpmorgan-shock-russian-gdp-akin-200226623.html

"JPMorgan: Shock to Russian GDP will be akin to 1998 crisis"

JPM projects a peak to bottom GDP hit of around 11% to Russia's GDP which is similar to the 1998 crisis.  Sounds about right.  Very rough but most likely survivable.

[dead0man]

we need to do more then.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1499395103957434369?t=f-yAhOUWL77MFl63W...

Giving them guns? Cool.

[Sol]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1499395103957434369?t=f-yAhOUWL77MFl63W...

Crazy legislative proposals in Russia are nothing new. In 2013 or 2014 some Duma member proposed a bill stipulating that gays would be publicly whipped by Cossacks. Didn't go anywhere, but just goes to show that the Overton window in Russia is on a completely different planet than ours.

I dunno, this kind of sounds like a trollish piece of legislation from Texas or Florida to me!

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1499395103957434369?t=f-yAhOUWL77MFl63W...

Almost sounds like some World War I style deal...

Pretty sure there was many an Irish Rebel who fought on the battlefields of Europe under the Union Jack who came back home to Ireland with their military experience and used it liberate their land.

Hell, even look at US Vietnam Vets who came home and joined the Black Liberation Movement as another example.

If it’s legit it’s probably just a threat. For what it’s worth re Ireland in World War I there was actually no conscription imposed there during the war (although there was a failed attempt in 1918), all of the Irish troops who served were volunteers (many of them drawn from John Redmond’s National Volunteers organisation initially) and only a very small proportion of those made their way into the IRA after the war.

Anyway, the West clearly appears to be approaching the limits of sanctions. The shift towards seizing the yachts and homes of Russian businessmen abroad clearly smacks of desperation.

[Lord Halifax]

Anyway, the West clearly appears to be approaching the limits of sanctions. The shift towards seizing the yachts and homes of Russian businessmen abroad clearly smacks of desperation.

I don't see it as desperate at all. Giving the oligarchs a direct personal incentive to get back to the pre-invasion situation (by getting rid of Putin) seems like an obvious move. Many (arguably most) of the playgrounds of the rich are located in Western countries or small island nations dependent on the West, so if those are off limits it becomes a lot less enjoyable to be an oligarch. 

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

In protest of the Ukrainian invasion, I have removed the font "Vladimir" from my PC for any future work projects.

Just rename it to Volodymyr and keep using it

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

[Cassius]

Anyway, the West clearly appears to be approaching the limits of sanctions. The shift towards seizing the yachts and homes of Russian businessmen abroad clearly smacks of desperation.

I don't see it as desperate at all. Giving the oligarchs a direct personal incentive to get back to the pre-invasion situation (by getting rid of Putin) seems like an obvious move. Many (arguably most) of the playgrounds of the rich are located in Western countries or small island nations dependent on the West, so if those are off limits it becomes a lot less enjoyable to be an oligarch. 

Yeah but the vast majority of these people aren’t important to the decision making process in Russia. They may be wealthy but they’re politically impotent. There are exceptions, like Igor Sechin (CEO of Rosneft), but people like that are fully aligned with Putin’s worldview and their fates are bound together with his.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyway, the West clearly appears to be approaching the limits of sanctions. The shift towards seizing the yachts and homes of Russian businessmen abroad clearly smacks of desperation.

I don't see it as desperate at all. Giving the oligarchs a direct personal incentive to get back to the pre-invasion situation (by getting rid of Putin) seems like an obvious move. Many (arguably most) of the playgrounds of the rich are located in Western countries or small island nations dependent on the West, so if those are off limits it becomes a lot less enjoyable to be an oligarch.  

Yeah but the vast majority of these people aren’t important to the decision making process in Russia. They may be wealthy but they’re politically impotent. There are exceptions, like Igor Sechin (CEO of Rosneft), but people like that are fully aligned with Putin’s worldview and their fates are bound together with his.

Honestly, isn't it a bit rich (forgive the pun) to (rightfully) be critical of Russia's rule of law standards, then seize Russian oligarchs' property just because Russia's involved in this war?
It's one thing to essentially force oligarchs to sell things (see: Abramovich and Chelsea), but just unilaterally seizing things like this undermines property rights, one would think.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Personal impressions from my way home in Berlin: First I came by the extended security zone around the Russian Embassy. Then the buildings with the Ukrainian blue-yellow banners on them. Some public buildings also use projectors insted of banners to light themselves up in blue and yellow. At least aesthetically that has a nice touch at night. Finally a Toyota with Ukranian license plates and a sh**tload of suitcases in the back parking in front of a hotel - mother, grandmother, son, from the looks of it - about to check in there. That's the moment when you ask yourself what the world has come to.

Update: Berlin Central Station has become the main point of disembarkation for Ukrainian refugees in Germany.

From what I've seen this more or less looks like it sounds.

[Angel of Death]

I don't think people are fully appreciating how Putin continues to have the option of scaling down his ambitions while still coming out ahead (at least nominally). What if at one point he decides to settle for modest territorial gains, like enlarging the separatist territories, maybe linking them up with Crimea? How then will the West be able to remain as united and act as forcefully like they're doing now, if the conflict (mostly) goes back to the simmering it was before the invasion?

[Person Man]

I don't think people are fully appreciating how Putin continues to have the option of scaling down his ambitions while still coming out ahead (at least nominally). What if at one point he decides to settle for modest territorial gains, like enlarging the separatist territories, maybe linking them up with Crimea? How then will the West be able to remain as united and act as forcefully like they're doing now, if the conflict (mostly) goes back to the simmering it was before the invasion?

....but he isn't.