Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Judo/status/1497875171008516105

[Silent Hunter]

Historic speech by Olaf Scholz. Germany completely changes its defense policy. It sounded like he would invest 100 billion EURO right here and now in military equipment and from now on spend at least 2% of GDP yearly on defense. This will furthermore have a ripple effect in that other NATO countries - like my own - have been hiding behind Germany in not spending the 2%. That will almost certainly change now.

This could actually be a real turning point. It could also signal a new world order where democratic Europe rises from the pathetic depence on the United States.

It’s worth noting ofc that even at the height of the Cold War the land forces between each side were not hugely outmatched in quality- and that was with a much larger USSR and a number of Warsaw Pact states.

Putin cannot go toe to toe with a U.K. France and Germany at Cold War levels of spending- along with other countries like Poland.

The WP countries had larger and more capable standing armies, but NATO could match them with mobilisation.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1497894578032197635

[Former President tack50]

Really great strategic move by Putin now that he has gotten NATO to pile up defense capabilities by massive amounts.

Yup. Putin has lost his mind. This will be his death sentence.

Ironically, Vladimir Putin was far more effective in getting the defense budget to 2% than Donald Trump ever was.

I remember back a couple years ago when some were questioning NATO's usefulness in the 21st century and when President Trump pulling the US out of NATO, while unlikely, was not seen as completely impossible.

Thank you Vladimir Putin for giving NATO a newly found purpose for the 21st century

[Estrella]

Someone mentioned that the reason for Putin trying to put himself in history books might be that he received a very bad diagnosis and thinks he's dying. IMO that hypothesis seems plausible. The invasion seems like a plan to seize Ukraine right now, consequences be damned, doing it properly be damned, exploiting the opportunities it provides be damned. Both the invasion and the sanctions would be the best opportunity for domestic consumption propaganda since at least 2014, possibly since the fall of USSR. And yet, Russian state media are acting as if nothing is happening. It all comes off as a plan that was hastily tacked together without any thinking while the troops were moving towards Ukrainian borders. Putin just wanted to get this over with.

[jaichind]

These sanctions have one clear medium-long term implication.  Russia will be decoupled from trade with Europe and trade will be more oriented toward PRC and India, especially PRC, and accelerate de-dollarization in Russian trade.   The terms of trade for Russia will get worse as the PRC will support this on their own terms that benefit time.  Long-term Inflation pressure will be higher in both Russia and Europe although clearly Russia will get hit first and harder.

[jaichind]

Russian media indicates that Lukashenko had a call with Zelensky and after that Lukashenko contacted the Russians asking them to not withdraw their negotiations team from Belorus.  The implication here is that Lukashenko thinks, as claimed by the Russians, that Zelensky might be open to talks taking place in Belorus despite his public announcements that he has ruled that out.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Historic speech by Olaf Scholz. Germany completely changes its defense policy. It sounded like he would invest 100 billion EURO right here and now in military equipment and from now on spend at least 2% of GDP yearly on defense. This will furthermore have a ripple effect in that other NATO countries - like my own - have been hiding behind Germany in not spending the 2%. That will almost certainly change now.

This could actually be a real turning point. It could also signal a new world order where democratic Europe rises from the pathetic depence on the United States.

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia. Putin has so catastrophically f**ked up.

Also, just to add some more details to this announcement:

- the annual defense budget will be increased to 2% of GDP, or approximately an additional 22 billion EUR per year, by 2024
- 100 billion EUR to be invested in R&D, equipment, ammunition, upgrades etc. mostly to ensure that the effect of the budget does no longer translate to obsolete gear.
- to put this into perspective, the Bundeswehr in 2021 budgeted 10 billion on equipment procurement and R&D, with a total budget of 47 billion
- NordStream 2 is dead
- Germany will directly arm Ukraine
- European military production will be invested in, in order to become more independent. Heavy cooperation with France is expected
- investing in LNG shipping terminals to diversify away from Russian gas

[jaichind]

https://x99news.com/european-industry-faces-shrink-or-shut-decisions-on-energy-pain/

"European Industry Faces Shrink or Shut Decisions on Energy Pain"

The European leg of the inflation pain from the decoupling of trade with Russia.

[Logical]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-9

Key Takeaways

• Russia has failed to encircle and isolate Kyiv with mechanized and airborne attacks as it had clearly planned to do. Russian forces are now engaging in more straightforward mechanized drives into Kyiv along a narrow front on the west bank of the Dnipro River and on a broad front to the northeast.
• Russian forces temporarily abandoned efforts to seize Chernihiv and Kharkiv to the northeast and east of Kyiv and are bypassing those cities to continue their drive on Kyiv. Failed Russian attacks against both cities were poorly designed and executed and encountered more determined and effective resistance than Russia likely expected.
• Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast.
• Russian forces in eastern Ukraine remain focused on pinning the large concentration of Ukrainian forces arrayed along the former line of contact in the east, likely to prevent them from interfering with Russian drives on Kyiv and to facilitate their encirclement and destruction.
• Ukrainian forces retook the critical city of Kherson and Russian forces halted their drive on Odessa. Some Russian troops remain west of the Dnipro River and are advancing on Mykolaiv, but the main axes of advance have shifted to the north and east toward Zaporizhie and Mariupol respectively.
• Russian forces have taken the critical city of Berdyansk from the west, threatening to encircle Mariupol with Russian forces in Donbas attacking Mariupol from the east, likely to pin defenders in the city.
• Russian troops are facing growing morale and logistics issues, predictable consequences of the poor planning, coordination, and execution of attacks along Ukraine’s northern border.
  
• The United States, Canada, and European allies removed select Russian banks from the SWIFT global financial network and agreed to additional measures that could significantly increase economic pressure on Russia.
• The United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom facilitated a significant expansion of NATO countries’ lethal aid shipments to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began.
• NATO countries began contributing forces to NATO Response Force (NRF) operations in Eastern Europe, reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank.
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is set to displace millions of Ukrainians internally and throughout eastern Europe; at least 150,000 Ukrainians have fled the country as of February 26 as urban fighting intensifies.
• Kremlin censors increased crackdowns on independent media amid growing Russian opposition to the war.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/study-medicine-in-india-not-smaller-foreign-nations-pm-modi-says-amid-ukraine-crisis-1085305.html

"Study medicine in India, not smaller foreign nations, PM Modi says amid Ukraine crisis"

Modi has not really talked about the Ukraine crisis publically since the war started.  The main domestic focus has been how to get Indian citizens, most students, out of Ukraine.  Modi's main message in the meantime "do not study abroad, and study in India instead"

My experience with Indians in the IT field is that they study undergrad in India but try to do grad school abroad to try to get a job in the West afterward.  Of course, my sample set is Indians that ended up working in USA and Europe so it is going to be biased.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that it seems Ukraine deputy foreign minister will go to Belarus for talks

Hopefully, they work out a compromise and the fighting can come to an end.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://mobile.twitter.com/UkraineLegions/status/1497921922914467845

[Hnv1]

The Russian army's expensive rejuvenation plan since 2008 should come under strict scrutiny. I don't see how and why the battalion battle groups are better\more efficient than traditional formations. And the problem of antiquated equipment still stands. The number of cold war tanks and late soviet era aircraft that are still the backbone of the Russian military is a big problem going forward

[jaichind]

Thinking about Russian "nuclear" options to counter these sanctions.  One could be key raw materials for the making of chips.  Obviously, they can cut off the gas saying that what is the point of selling you guys gas when you just freeze the money you pay us for the gas.  Russia also now controls or will control enough of Eastern Ukraine that can cut off critical food exports from that region to Europe.  I think they will most likely hold back these "nuke option" cards to see what else the West could come up with in terms of sanctions.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that it seems Ukraine deputy foreign minister will go to Belarus for talks

Hopefully, they work out a compromise and the fighting can come to an end.

Ukraine came out and said that the Bloomberg report on talks in Belorus is not true.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1497895878253858822?s=21
I’ve now seen multiple sources claim this, including the Governor of Kharkiv Oblast. Some claim that it’s due to a new strategy of the Russian’s of bypassing urban centers to either encircle the heavily fortified Ukrainian units in the Donbas or meet-up with Southern forces in Dnipro/Zaphorizia, but either way, it reeks of poor planning and desperation.

Or maybe that’s just my hope. Either way, I know we’re all praying Putin’s rotten house of cards hopefully comes crashing down ASAP.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Remember when Tucker Carlson and other rwers were saying how Russia’s military is better than ours because they released a recruiting video about how masculine and unpc the troops are? Lol

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But this is speculation on an invasion that isn't even a week old yet. Do people expect all modern wars to be like Israel's Six Day War?

I think the relevant issue, right now, is that it's fairly clear that Russian invasion plans assumed that it would be and that it is interesting that it isn't. But, yes, beyond that we really do need to be careful, though I think we can be sure that the response from the Ukrainian people in general suggests that turning a military victory into a sustainable political one (without which any military victory is not really a victory at all), looks likely to be difficult.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1497929591209529347?s=21
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1497929907195756546?s=21
Huge if true. The source seems reputable, but it’d certainly be a drastic change of events.

[jaichind]

AFP reports that Ukraine agrees to hold talks with Russia at Belarus border

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497927549858590735?t=cG4DlQ1o30LZaNN...

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Zelenskiy's IG confirms the planned talks.

[Person Man]

Historic speech by Olaf Scholz. Germany completely changes its defense policy. It sounded like he would invest 100 billion EURO right here and now in military equipment and from now on spend at least 2% of GDP yearly on defense. This will furthermore have a ripple effect in that other NATO countries - like my own - have been hiding behind Germany in not spending the 2%. That will almost certainly change now.

This could actually be a real turning point. It could also signal a new world order where democratic Europe rises from the pathetic depence on the United States.

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia. Putin has so catastrophically f**ked up.

Also, just to add some more details to this announcement:

- the annual defense budget will be increased to 2% of GDP, or approximately an additional 22 billion EUR per year, by 2024
- 100 billion EUR to be invested in R&D, equipment, ammunition, upgrades etc. mostly to ensure that the effect of the budget does no longer translate to obsolete gear.
- to put this into perspective, the Bundeswehr in 2021 budgeted 10 billion on equipment procurement and R&D, with a total budget of 47 billion
- NordStream 2 is dead
- Germany will directly arm Ukraine
- European military production will be invested in, in order to become more independent. Heavy cooperation with France is expected
- investing in LNG shipping terminals to diversify away from Russian gas

It appears again that Biden succeeded in implementing Trump’s failed policies. This is the right way forward for the world.

[jaichind]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that. 

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation   
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine