Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Omega21]

Kadyrov calling for "change of Tactics", referring to the somewhat refrained Russian approach

Thread below

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497917442508701697

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497920293863448578

[NOVA Green]

Israel is sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine:

"Israel throws its weight behind Ukraine but is wary of provoking Russia

By Shira Rubin
Today at 8:39 a.m. EST

TEL AVIV — Israel is increasingly going public with its support for Ukraine while avoiding public condemnation of Russia, the primary backer of the Syrian regime, which is classified by Israel as an enemy state on its northern border.

“We are praying for the well-being of the citizens of Ukraine and hope that additional bloodshed will be avoided,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Sunday in a statement. “We are conducting a measured and responsible policy.”

He said that over the next two days, Israel will send 100 tons of water purification kits, medical drugs, tents, blankets and other humanitarian equipment for civilians in the combat zones in Ukraine and to Ukrainians attempting to flee.

Bennett also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, said a statement released by Bennett’s office.

....

On Saturday night, thousands of Israelis, mostly of Ukrainian descent, marched through Tel Aviv calling for the end to the Russian assault, as the City Hall was lit with the blue and yellow Ukrainian flag. In Jerusalem, a famous Russian pub named Putin removed its sign, after one of the Russian-Israeli owners said they “want no connection with an occupier.”

...."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/ukraine-israel-russia-negotiations/

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497986324757987338

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497986324757987338

Second Great Northern War when?

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile more impacts to Russian participation in international sporting events--- long article from the Wall Street Journal so this is naturally just a small fraction of the content:

"International Soccer Spent 20 Years Befriending Russia. Now It Has a Russia Problem.

European soccer authorities will strip St. Petersburg of the Champions League final, but longer-term questions remain

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech to a soccer stadium on a warm Moscow afternoon in 2018 had been more than a decade in the making. There had been campaigns behind the scenes, deals in back rooms, and billions of dollars thrown at the project, but the effort had worked: Putin was hosting the first ever World Cup in Russia.

“In our country football is not just the most popular sport,” he told a packed Luzhniki Stadium at the opening match. “Russians love football. And that is what we call love at first sight.”

The feeling was mutual. International soccer has spent much of the 21st century entangling its interests with Russia’s, including major sponsorship deals and the awarding of hosting rights to major matches and tournaments. But following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this week, the game’s authorities are facing urgent choices.

The first will be to strip St. Petersburg of the marquee event of the club soccer calendar, the Champions League final, according to a person familiar with the decision, which is due to be confirmed after an emergency meeting of European soccer’s governing body on Friday. The Russian national team is also due to play a make-or-break World Cup qualifying playoff against Poland in Moscow next month, even as Russian troops shell parts of Ukraine just miles from the Polish border. And more broadly, Gazprom, the Russian state-owned energy company, has had its logo on the prestigious Champions League since 2012.

...."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-ukraine-invasion-champions-league-putin-11645719011?st=myzf952y52dt3s0&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Ukrainians are certainly in a much stronger position for these peace talks than when Zelensky was asking for them two days ago. Still, I don't think he will get status quo ante bellum here. Russian forces have fallen short of expectations for sure but they are still winning in the sense that they hold Ukrainian territory, including some important parts in the South near Crimea.

Zelensky gave in on the location of the talks only after the SWIFT and Central bank sanctions.  That way he will go in knowing that Russia knows time is not on their side.  Of course, he has to be realistic on how much he can get away with no concessions.

Very true. However, if the fighting continues, the median result now is probably that Ukraine will lose its major cities (Kiev, Kharkov in particular) in time after some protracted and destructive fighting. They're also in some danger of having their forces in the Donbass encircled. This is not the Winter War where the Finns held the Soviets at the border for months. While Russia will definitely be weakened by the sanctions, Ukraine and particularly the Ukrainian people are still likely to lose most from continued fighting. So if Ukraine is going for an end to the war now they will likely have to give up something, like swearing non-aligned status.

Down, boys. Zelensky has already said he does not expect the talks to go anywhere.

[NOVA Green]

Fed-Ex and UPS are suspending shipments to Russia:

"51 min ago

UPS, FedEx Halt Shipments Into Russia

By Paul Ziobro

FedEx Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc. have suspended shipments into Russia amid the country's invasion of Ukraine.

The U.S.-based shipping giants had earlier cut off shipments to and from Ukraine and were preparing contingency plans for their Russian operations. Now, both have temporarily stopped delivering shipments bound for Russia.

UPS said that packages en route to Russia and Ukraine will be returned free of charge to the sender if possible.

"Our focus is on the safety of our people, providing continued service and minimizing disruption to our customers," UPS said in a service alert on its website. "UPS continues to closely monitor the situation and will re-establish service as soon as it is practical and safe to do so."

FedEx issued a similar service alert on its website. “We are closely monitoring the situation and have contingency plans in place,” FedEx said.

FEDEX CORP.FDX(U.S.: NYSE)
$220.72 USD
4.80
2.22%
▲
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC. CL BUPS(U.S.: NYSE)
$209.95 USD
2.76
1.33%
▲
1 hour ago

"

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/ups-fedex-halt-shipments-into-russia-gMS7VIk7WuZXVnVxh8Ju

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497986324757987338

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1497990793377681408

[NOVA Green]

Looks like the Turkish anti-tank drones are making an impact at some locations:


"4 hours ago

Ukraine Says It Used Turkish-Made Drones to Hit Russian Targets

By Brett Forrest and Jared Malsin


Ukraine’s air force confirmed two strikes on Russian targets by Turkish-made drones, evidence that Kyiv is using the drones effectively against Moscow’s invading forces.

The chief of Ukraine’s air force, Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk, called the Bayraktar TB2 drones “life-giving” in a Facebook post.

A video posted on Twitter by the Ukrainian Embassy in Ankara showed a convoy of more than a dozen vehicles consumed by a fireball and a plume of smoke. The embassy tweeted two more videos taken out the window of a moving vehicle showing the charred wreckage of military vehicles.

The Ukrainian air force confirmed that one of these videos depicted the result of a TB2 strike in the town of Chornobaivka, in southern Ukraine, an area that has experienced serious fighting over the past couple of days.

“Never a rose without a thorn,” the embassy wrote in one of the tweets. “Russian invaders have to put up with Bayraktar TB2s.”

The embassy called the strike “divine justice” for a Russian airstrike that killed 34 Turkish soldiers in Syria on this date two years ago.

Ukraine began receiving shipments of the Turkish-made drones in 2019 and has been using their high-powered cameras to view the battlefield and laser-correct artillery strikes. The TB2 can stay aloft for 24 hours, with an altitude ceiling of roughly 25,000 feet. A remote pilot can fly the drone from as far away as 185 miles, weather permitting."

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497986324757987338

Second Great Northern War when?

Finland will be ours again!!!!

[Splash]

It amazes me that Ukraine still has the capabilities to launch operations in the air. I think that shows how Russia's war plans were really based on the assumption of minimal resistance and a quick victory, as some here have suggested. I guess they really did think that hitting a couple ammo depots and military bases with missiles and then speed-running to Kyiv with less than a third of their forces would lead to Zelensky capitulating.

[Badger]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Judo/status/1497875171008516105

As a former judoka myself, this development is personally gratifying.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497986324757987338

Second Great Northern War when?

Based but this time we win Poltava.

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways as wonderful as Ukrainian resistance will be, I do think Russia will learn from the mistakes and go all in, which will just be devastating for everyone. The Ukrainian people have shown an insane degree of courage and resilience, but neither can overcome logistical disadvantages in the long term. I will pray for the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian nation, and I hope we do truly stand up to this aggression sooner rather than later.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Anyways as wonderful as Ukrainian resistance will be, I do think Russia will learn from the mistakes and go all in, which will just be devastating for everyone. The Ukrainian people have shown an insane degree of courage and resilience, but neither can overcome logistical disadvantages in the long term. I will pray for the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian nation, and I hope we do truly stand up to this aggression sooner rather than later.

I think it's only a matter of time until they use those "I can't believe it's not a tactical nuke!" thermobarics they used in Chechnya, especially since that monster Kadyrov apparently wants them to.

[It’s so Joever]

Also does appear Russia is going all in on taking Mariupol ASAP, will definitely leave Ukrainian soldiers in Donetsk in a precarious spot.

[Aurelius]

I get that national stereotyping is passé, but Chechens just seem like a peculiarly nasty people. Godspeed to the Ukrainians in giving Kadyrov's thugs a beating.

[Omega21]

Anyways as wonderful as Ukrainian resistance will be, I do think Russia will learn from the mistakes and go all in, which will just be devastating for everyone. The Ukrainian people have shown an insane degree of courage and resilience, but neither can overcome logistical disadvantages in the long term. I will pray for the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian nation, and I hope we do truly stand up to this aggression sooner rather than later.

This is my take as well. Russia is trying tactics that just aren't their thing, i.e. sending in troops piecemeal and trying to avoid collateral damage by using MLRS rather sparingly on urban areas.

The thing is, this has never been their thing. Soviet doctorine has always been:

1. Bomb the area until it's a wasteland
2. Bumrush with men & equipment until the "problem" is solved

Now, with people like Kadyrov calling on a change of tactic as well, we can only hope Putin has some sense left & is not prepared to turn Ukraine into a wasteland.

[Aurelius]

Pro-Russian source, affiliated with my favorite batshlt crazy Russian nationalist Anatoly Karlin. Take with a huge grain of salt. The reports out of Kharkiv have been concerning since last night, and internal Ukrainian propaganda seems like it's been saying a lot in what it doesn't say.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1497986649803968515

From a broader perspective, even Karlin seems to believe Russia's strategy is a bad one, as he retweeted this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/blob_watcher/status/1497993708926431232

Remember that MRDA and its converse are good tools to pierce through the propaganda. If a source says something that goes against its usual biases, it's probably worth giving some credence to.

[It’s so Joever]

I get that national stereotyping is passé, but Chechens just seem like a peculiarly nasty people. Godspeed to the Ukrainians in giving Kadyrov's thugs a beating.

I understand the urge for this given everything that has transpired, but let’s try and refrain from this kind of rhetoric. It is honestly counterproductive.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I get that national stereotyping is passé, but Chechens just seem like a peculiarly nasty people. Godspeed to the Ukrainians in giving Kadyrov's thugs a beating.

I understand the urge for this given everything that has transpired, but let’s try and refrain from this kind of rhetoric. It is honestly counterproductive.

Agreed.  It's very important to keep a separation between the evaluation of military vs. general population.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I get that national stereotyping is passé, but Chechens just seem like a peculiarly nasty people. Godspeed to the Ukrainians in giving Kadyrov's thugs a beating.

I understand the urge for this given everything that has transpired, but let’s try and refrain from this kind of rhetoric. It is honestly counterproductive.

Yes. Chechens are a people with a peculiarly nasty recent history. Not the same thing.

[emailking]

The DEFCON level has moved to 2! The 3rd time that has ever happen. The first time the DEFCON went to level 2 was the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Second Time was during the Persian Gulf War.

Sounds like this is just a guess.

[NOVA Green]

Kharkiv Update: New York Times including some video footage dated 2/27/22:

This appears to perhaps reflect a slightly different interpretation than some of the material posted by others upthread.

" Footage shows fighting drawing closer to the center of Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Russian troops have escalated their assault on Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, according to videos and photographs analyzed by The New York Times.

The imagery from Sunday shows clashes between Russian and Ukrainian troops occurring closer to the city center than was previously seen, suggesting a deeper Russian incursion into Kharkiv, in eastern Ukraine.

In several locations, it appears that these advances may have stalled. Videos show some Russian vehicles burning, and others being ransacked by Ukrainian troops."







https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/26/world/ukraine-russia-war

Washington Post now also verifying the footage of street fighting today in Kharkiv, with some additional analysis:

"Video verified by The Washington Post shows a snapshot of the battle between Ukrainian and Russian forces on Sunday in the city of Kharkiv, about 300 miles east of Kyiv. The battle for control of the country’s second-largest city was marked by intense street fighting

The video shows Ukrainian soldiers, identified by the yellow on their uniforms, taking cover as a rapid gunfire rings out for several seconds. One fighter walks toward the camera, away from the shots, with a cigarette in his mouth and two AR-style rifles in either hand.

Then, about 15 seconds into the video, a Ukrainian fighter fires a high explosive, antitank PG-7 warhead from a shoulder-fired rocket propelled grenade launcher, according to a review of the footage by Mark Hiznay, associate director of the arms division of Human Rights Watch. The soldier fires two additional rockets from the launcher, identified as a RPG-7, over the next 30 seconds.

Other videos verified by The Post show a line of damaged, abandoned Russian military vehicles, identified by the letter Z painted on the back door, in the same area. Smoke engulfs one of the vehicles. Debris and glass from nearby buildings is scattered on the ground. The same group of Ukrainian soldiers are seen inspecting the vehicles and examining the ammunition and supplies that were left behind."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-news/#link-QUYEGEHPWFH3FIW6FT5JYT4UO4

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyways as wonderful as Ukrainian resistance will be, I do think Russia will learn from the mistakes and go all in, which will just be devastating for everyone. The Ukrainian people have shown an insane degree of courage and resilience, but neither can overcome logistical disadvantages in the long term. I will pray for the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian nation, and I hope we do truly stand up to this aggression sooner rather than later.

This is my take as well. Russia is trying tactics that just aren't their thing, i.e. sending in troops piecemeal and trying to avoid collateral damage by using MLRS rather sparingly on urban areas.

The thing is, this has never been their thing. Soviet doctorine has always been:

1. Bomb the area until it's a wasteland
2. Bumrush with men & equipment until the "problem" is solved

Now, with people like Kadyrov calling on a change of tactic as well, we can only hope Putin has some sense left & is not prepared to turn Ukraine into a wasteland.

If even Kadyrov, a Putin loyalist to put all Putin loyalists to shame, is calling for a change in strategy, I would be surprised to see it not happen.