Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497810547059740674?s=20&t=QeszRh...

Hopefully the Ukrainian military can expel the Russians and retake full control of the city.

[Edu]

What was this? it's gone.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497807359170813955?s=20&t=Q6vVElnD...

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/alexeyguzey/status/1497774158578548738

[It’s so Joever]

Sigh, Kharkiv is falling.

[Omega21]

Unconfirmed

Russians disable half a dozen Ukranian fighters on an undisclosed Airport

https://twitter.com/Troubleless_/status/1497812285414428673

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/alexeyguzey/status/1497774158578548738

These are the types of tragic stories that will hopefully lead to Putin losing support amongst the Russian public.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/alexeyguzey/status/1497774158578548738

"It was Sam's first view of a battle of Men against Men and he did not like it much. He was glad he could not see the dead face. He wondered what the man's name was and where he came from; and if he was really evil of heart, or what lies and threats had led him on the long march from his home; and if he would not rather have stayed there in peace."

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/alexeyguzey/status/1497774158578548738

These are the types of tragic stories that will hopefully lead to Putin losing support amongst the Russian public.

 They will be hushed up by Russian state media, and only that poor conscripts family family and friends will know the truth. Is word-of-mouth from them and other Families who lose soldiers won't be nearly enough too counter the government's propaganda machine.

[Velasco]

While I used to be able to sympathize with some of Putin's views on certain issues, now I just can't. Putin is 100% without a doubt a war criminal now and I do not sympathize with war criminals! I still don't support US troops in Ukraine and hope that both sides can find a solution rather quickly, which sadly looks pretty unlikely at this point.

Just thought I'd give my two cents.

 I am trying to restrain myself from hyperbole in asking this, but on what possible issues could one agree with Vladimir Putin on? Serious question.

Bringing stability to your country and raising it up from being an Oligarch dominated disaster zone like Russia in the 1990s or the United States.

Lmao at the idea that Russia is better than the US today . Heck I’d say Jim Crow South USA > Russia has ever been

Russia is by no means better than the US today, but Cassius has a point remarking that (before launching this imperialistic adventure) Putin "raised" his country and brought "stability". The surge of Putin and his brand of nationalism (imperialist, militarist and revanchist) can be better explained considering the ruinous and chaotic state of Russia in the 1990s. While Putin's aggression cannot be justified by any means, the West should have never left a Russia alone snd to its own devices when the USSR collapsed.  That was a gross irresponsibility and now we are suffering the consequences,  in my humble opinion

Also, why billionaires in the US are not labeled as "oligarchs" like their Russian counterparts? If you consider the power amassed by the big business, the US liberal democracy might be well labeled an oligarchy (not unlike Russia today)

[Splash]

Starting to see clips of street fighting in Kharkiv. Seems like the Ukrainians are waiting for the Russians to pass and then ambushing their flanks. This could turn nasty if the Russians decide to use artillery within the city limits.

[brucejoel99]

I'm curious about the possibility of non-nuclear NATO intervention? Say, the Spanish, Canadians, Polish, & Baltics going into Ukraine while the Americans, British, & French just lurk nearby in Poland. After all, Article 5 only exists for defensive initiation, so involving the nuclear card won't be required unless Putin provoked us into it by directly attacking NATO soil.

[John Dule]

Also, why billionaires in the US are not labeled as "ologarchs" like their US counterparts? If you consider the power amassed by the big business, the US liberal democracy might be well considered an oligarchy (not unlike Russia today)

Because our billionaires achieved their status through legitimate enterprise and innovation. Russia's oligarchs were handed huge chunks of the country's economy during the corrupt privatization and they have been suckling from the government teat ever since. There is literally no comparison.

[John Dule]

What was this? it's gone.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497807359170813955?s=20&t=Q6vVElnD...

Putin learned from the woke left that you can label just about anyone a "Nazi" and you'll have a good number of useful idiots nodding their heads dutifully.

[Splash]

Starting to see clips of street fighting in Kharkiv. Seems like the Ukrainians are waiting for the Russians to pass and then ambushing their flanks. This could turn nasty if the Russians decide to use artillery within the city limits.

All the clips seem to be of the same Russian column. It's possible that they just got lost or separated and accidentally ended up in the city.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497817097988104200
...or maybe they're looking for some food and a gas station?  

[Frodo]

I'm curious about the possibility of non-nuclear NATO intervention? Say, the Spanish, Canadians, Polish, & Baltics going into Ukraine while the Americans, British, & French just lurk nearby in Poland. After all, Article 5 only exists for defensive initiation, so involving the nuclear card won't be required unless Putin provoked us into it by directly attacking NATO soil.

I was just thinking about NATO securing western Ukraine (with Lviv as the capital) as a buffer state against the Russians.  

Sort of like the 21st century version of the division of Germany into its eastern and western halves during the Cold War only this time it happens to Ukraine (and maybe Kiev too, taking the place of Berlin). 

[pppolitics]

This is the best analysis that I've read so far:

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-miscalculation/

[Storr]

Sigh, Kharkiv is falling.

Evidently it was likely a Russian convoy that got lost?!?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497817097988104200?s=20&t=Lr5s8mf...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497816336004796417?s=20&t=Lr5s8mf...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497814598443061249?s=20&t=Lr5s8mf...

[pppolitics]

Watching Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine play out, it seems the Russian president has vastly underestimated and misunderstood Ukrainians and their president.

Putin, a one-time KGB operative who in 2004 said “there is no such thing as a former KGB man,” has made clear that he lives in a world of the past. The world that existed before the end of the Cold War, a world in which the territories of the former Soviet Union, potentially even the countries of the former Warsaw Pact, are run out of Moscow. A world he is trying to rebuild today.

But the USSR is not Russia, and when you live in the past, you lose touch with the present.

Putin has lost touch with ordinary Russians, despite exercising immense control over what they watch, listen to and read. But to an even greater degree, Putin has lost touch with what Ukrainians think.

It’s the classic mistake of every tyrant: Surround yourself only with sycophants, suck-ups and yes-men, and you never get a reality check in your echo chamber. Eliminate dissenting politicians, and you assume that means you’ve eliminated dissent.

The decisive moment that sealed Ukraine’s fate may well have been the U.S.-led withdrawal from Afghanistan — a country closely watched by the Kremlin, given its key role in the downfall of the USSR, after the Soviets attempted to invade in 1979, and spent almost a decade fighting a losing battle.

When the West left Afghanistan last year, the speed and success of the Taliban takeover of the country would have delighted Putin. The capitulation of the U.S., the impotence of Europe, and the relative ease with which the militants took control of the Afghan capital within days of the Western retreat made Ukraine seem a tantalizing prospect.

Perhaps Putin thought he’d roll into Kyiv the way the Taliban rolled into Kabul, meeting scant resistance from Ukrainians. He seems to have expected to be welcomed in by Russian-speaking Ukrainians as nostalgic for the Soviet heydays as he is. It seems Putin expected Ukrainians to lay down their arms, and for their pro-Western and NATO President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to flee, making space for one of Moscow’s allies. The Kremlin could roll its tanks back to Russia, taking a sizeable chunk of Ukraine with them, and Putin could declare his bogus “peacekeeping” mission over after a few days. He would take some limited casualties, some painful but not devastating sanctions, and then it would be back to business as usual.

And perhaps if Putin had tried this maneuver during the Ukrainian presidencies of his ally Viktor Yanukovych, or of “chocolate king” billionaire Petro Poroshenko, he might have been able to roll into Kyiv the way the Taliban took Kabul last year.

But Putin underestimated Ukraine. The country’s troops have resisted hard and have largely held their cities against a Russian attempt at blitzkrieg. Kyiv claims that its experienced, motivated soldiers have killed thousands of Russians, downed enemy planes and destroyed hundreds of armored vehicles and tanks.

Putin also underestimated Zelenskiy.

A former comedian and actor with humble roots, Zelenskiy entered politics in 2019 on an anti-corruption campaign, after playing a history teacher elected as president on an anti-corruption platform in the sitcom “Servant of the People.”

Zelenskiy certainly isn’t perfect, but he’s also not cut from the same fabric of oligarchs who made billions in shady business enterprises. His ascent to the presidency seems to have genuinely been driven by a desire to make things better.

Ukraine now has a leader it can believe in, who is vowing to fight on against a military superpower. He’s a democratically elected president who wasn’t a cynical appointee of some other country, who wasn’t someone seeking the presidency to enrich themselves.

Unlike Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani and his government, Zelenskiy didn’t get on the first plane out of Kyiv, despite the clear danger to his life. When Putin talks about decapitating Ukraine’s government, he is not speaking metaphorically. As Zelenskiy himself said in a video posted to social media, the president is Putin’s No. 1 target, and his family the No. 2.

Zelenskiy has stayed in Kyiv, rebuffing reported offers of safety in France and in the U.S. He has donned a khaki T-shirt and jacket.

“We are here. We are in Kyiv. We are defending Ukraine,” Zelenskiy said in a video published on Telegram Friday night and shot in Kyiv. In the clip, he is surrounded by his Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, along with Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the president’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, the head of the office of the president, and the head of the ruling party’s parliamentary faction, David Arakhamia.

With that video, Zelenskiy told Ukrainians: We aren’t running, we’re fighting. Ukrainians are fighting.

So, Putin expected Afghanistan in 2021. But he got Afghanistan in 1979. Ukrainians aren’t rolling over or welcoming back an old friend. They, and their president, are digging in for war. Their army is fighting hard. Harsh Western sanctions are targeting Putin and all his oligarch buddies, who were content to keep him in power while it filled their coffers, but who now stand to lose billions.

The Kremlin isn’t orchestrating a relatively bloodless coup in Ukraine any more. It is instead attempting to become an occupying force. And that is a much more difficult proposition for a country, even a large and wealthy one — you don’t need to look much further than Afghanistan to see the problem with external forces (who will, eventually, have to go home), trying to impose ideologies or governments on a people who don’t want them. Add to that those crippling sanctions, and you’re staring down the barrel of a protracted battle that isn’t easily won.

Or, to put it another way: How do you control a country of 44 million Ukrainians who suddenly have something to believe in? And how do you keep your own people on board?

[...]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-miscalculation/

[OSR stands with Israel]

While I used to be able to sympathize with some of Putin's views on certain issues, now I just can't. Putin is 100% without a doubt a war criminal now and I do not sympathize with war criminals! I still don't support US troops in Ukraine and hope that both sides can find a solution rather quickly, which sadly looks pretty unlikely at this point.

Just thought I'd give my two cents.

 I am trying to restrain myself from hyperbole in asking this, but on what possible issues could one agree with Vladimir Putin on? Serious question.

Bringing stability to your country and raising it up from being an Oligarch dominated disaster zone like Russia in the 1990s or the United States.

Lmao at the idea that Russia is better than the US today . Heck I’d say Jim Crow South USA > Russia has ever been

This is a revolting take, can we just agree they're both sh**tty and move on. Lord.

Why , I’m not saying one is good just that one is worse .


Also do you still stand by calling Iraq morally worse than Russia invading Ukraine or will you admit that it wasn’t 

[AndyHogan14]

Sigh, Kharkiv is falling.

Evidently it was likely a Russian convoy that got lost?!?

They got LOST and entered the city?! Good Lord, if that is the case, it is just further proof that the Russian effort is a mess. They might still end up "winning" (whatever that might be), but it almost seems like they are cartoonishly inept at times.

[It’s so Joever]

While I used to be able to sympathize with some of Putin's views on certain issues, now I just can't. Putin is 100% without a doubt a war criminal now and I do not sympathize with war criminals! I still don't support US troops in Ukraine and hope that both sides can find a solution rather quickly, which sadly looks pretty unlikely at this point.

Just thought I'd give my two cents.

You’re really trying to make yourself the bad guy here aren’t you?

 I am trying to restrain myself from hyperbole in asking this, but on what possible issues could one agree with Vladimir Putin on? Serious question.

Bringing stability to your country and raising it up from being an Oligarch dominated disaster zone like Russia in the 1990s or the United States.

Lmao at the idea that Russia is better than the US today . Heck I’d say Jim Crow South USA > Russia has ever been

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Sigh, Kharkiv is falling.

Evidently it was likely a Russian convoy that got lost?!?

They got LOST and entered the city?! Good Lord, if that is the case, it is just further proof that the Russian effort is a mess. They might still end up "winning" (whatever that might be), but it almost seems like they are cartoonishly inept at times.

I just saw video of another Russian column in Kharkiv, one that had actual infantry with it. So it does seem like they're going in on purpose; it's just a disorganized clusterf**k.

[Storr]

Infantry walking in utterly exposed with a few light vehicles in front, in broad daylight seems like not the best idea. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1497823461510725632?s=20&t=6bRrpIGEe...

[Storr]

Infantry walking in utterly exposed with a few light vehicles in front, in broad daylight seems like not the best idea. <tweet snip>

Russia, what are you even doing?
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497824049354870787?s=20&t=oUl-Jy4...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497824393669582850?s=20&t=oUl-Jy4...

[Hnv1]

Infantry walking in utterly exposed with a few light vehicles in front, in broad daylight seems like not the best idea. <tweet snip>

Russia, what are you even doing?
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497824049354870787?s=20&t=oUl-Jy4...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497824393669582850?s=20&t=oUl-Jy4...

Ukrainian are narrowing into choke points in the cities with ATMs. Going infantry would force them to reveal positions without costing the Russians more pieces.

That’s call a strategy. The Russians lacked it so far.