Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1673951877132701696?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1673031778448158720?s=20

"Better Call Sanya [Lukashenko]"

https://twitter.com/zhgun/status/1674017418727903235?s=20

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1674046808647954433?cxt=HHwWgsCz7f6stLs...

[pppolitics]

Are Russian missiles so inaccurate that they can't hit their intended target or are civilians their target?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1673978458030977024

The twin girls who died in the Kramatorsk restaurant bombing are Julia and the Anna Aksenchenko, the city council of the Ukrainian city announced on Telegram

[CumbrianLefty]

Are Russian missiles so inaccurate that they can't hit their intended target or are civilians their target?

Yes, and yes?

[jaichind]

Biden: Putin losing the war in Iraq
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1674062124245549056

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1674046808647954433?cxt=HHwWgsCz7f6stLs...

Happy Eid to all Muslims, except, those Muslims being conscripted as cannon fodder because Putin values them less than "real" Russians.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1674080451181289474?s=20

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1674080500221202433?s=20

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1674080451181289474?s=20

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1674080500221202433?s=20

The favorite narratives of those who are anti-arming Ukraine or even pro-Russian are that:
1) Russian victory is inevitable and arming Ukraine only prolongs the bloodshed
2) Aiding Ukraine is an escalation which could lead to nuclear war

The Wagner coup, even though it wasn't successful, undermines both because a side that's confident in victory isn't going to have to deal with coup attempts and mutinies, and it shows that Putin is so weak and disrespected that an order from him to launch nukes might not even be obeyed.

[pppolitics]

So the restaurant was the target

https://twitter.com/insidermildef/status/1674094367781339136

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1674136248364027929?s=20

[Virginiá]

I for one am all for Russia arresting and torturing the more competent generals in their military.

[Logical]

The CIA stirring the pot and actively encouraging Putin's paranoia is so funny. May the pit of vipers continue eating itself.

[Torie]

Woody might be well advised to close his real estate office in Bakhmut.

The aim of the offensive towards Bakhmut appears less to enter the city than to surround it. “We can now hit any point in the city and on the approaches…we are working to cut off their logistics,” says Denys Yaroslavksy, a special-forces officer fighting to the north of Bakhmut. Serhiy Cherevaty, a military spokesman, confirmed that a number of brigades advanced around Bakhmut by around 2km on the day of Mr Prigozhin’s mutiny.

And just what specifically should Ukraine be doing that it isn’t given what it has? Too bad there is not some percussion bomb that would detonated all the land mines at once within a mile radius or something. It is annoying to have people aka "Western advisors" bitching at you that your people are not dying at a fast enough rate. These Western advisors should be outed. Would US troops go into the meat grinder without air superiority? I thought not. But the American people per the latest poll are patient. Russia will not be able to afford this war forever. They are going to run out of money.

its initial attacks against well-defended Russian positions, including minefields, have exposed its troops’ limited training. They have taken heavy casualties, according to people familiar with the details.

Ukrainian commanders want to protect their depleted forces; Western advisers retort that a lack of shock and momentum will cost more lives in the longer term. A Ukrainian military-intelligence source complains that the country is moving as fast as it can, given the tools at its disposal. “Let me put this as diplomatically as I can,” he says. “Certain partners are telling us to go forward and fight violently, but they also take their time delivering the hardware and weapons we need.”



https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/28/can-ukraine-capitalise-on-chaos-in-russia

[Storr]

The CIA stirring the pot and actively encouraging Putin's paranoia is so funny. May the pit of vipers continue eating itself.

https://twitter.com/SevaUT/status/1674127541613875226?s=20

[Torrain]

Dmitry Medevdev seems to have dropped off the map since the Wagner mutiny. He missed that big security meeting Putin arranged, and his personal plane seems to still be grounded in Oman.

Wonder what's going on there...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Woody might be well advised to close his real estate office in Bakhmut.

The aim of the offensive towards Bakhmut appears less to enter the city than to surround it. “We can now hit any point in the city and on the approaches…we are working to cut off their logistics,” says Denys Yaroslavksy, a special-forces officer fighting to the north of Bakhmut. Serhiy Cherevaty, a military spokesman, confirmed that a number of brigades advanced around Bakhmut by around 2km on the day of Mr Prigozhin’s mutiny.

And just what specifically should Ukraine be doing that it isn’t given what is has? Too bad there is not some percussion bomb that would detonated all the land mines at once within a mile radius or something. It is annoying to have people aka "Western advisors" bitching at you that your people are not dying at a fast enough rate. These Western advisors should be outed. Would US troops go into the meat grinder without air superiority? I thought not. But the American people per the latest poll are patient. Russia will not be able to afford this war forever. They are going to run out of money.

its initial attacks against well-defended Russian positions, including minefields, have exposed its troops’ limited training. They have taken heavy casualties, according to people familiar with the details.

Ukrainian commanders want to protect their depleted forces; Western advisers retort that a lack of shock and momentum will cost more lives in the longer term. A Ukrainian military-intelligence source complains that the country is moving as fast as it can, given the tools at its disposal. “Let me put this as diplomatically as I can,” he says. “Certain partners are telling us to go forward and fight violently, but they also take their time delivering the hardware and weapons we need.”



https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/28/can-ukraine-capitalise-on-chaos-in-russia

Some elements in regards to the overall way we've treated the Ukrainians are truly awful.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1674142419208503296?s=20

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1674148071888887808?s=20

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1674080557204897795

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

So the restaurant was the target

https://twitter.com/insidermildef/status/1674094367781339136

I am skeptical that Putin's Russia has the technical capability to reliably hit a target the size of a restaurant with a long-range missile strike. 

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1674080557204897795

Our guys get results. People are noticing.

[Red Velvet]

HAHAHAHA RED VELVET IN F@CKING SHAMBLES. GLOBAL SOUTH UNITY CAN GET F@CKING RECKED LMFAO
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1673768815002537986

Lmao. Me right now:



Can’t wait to see people mentioning me whenever a BRICS country doesn’t vote in favor of Russia in some irrelevant UN vote or something.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1674070461221617665?s=12
It is fascinating when these finds drop to put the actual brutality of the fighting in perspective 😕

[NOVA Green]

I don't believe it has been mentioned yet, but it looks like Switzerland blocked a deal which could have led to the transfer of almost (100) Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

Switzerland blocked arms maker Ruag AG from selling almost 100 tanks in a deal that would have seen them used by Ukraine in its war with Russia.

The government said the request is “inconsistent with applicable law,” noting that Switzerland is a neutral country which can’t approve sales of arms bound for an active conflict zone. Ruag said it acknowledged the decision, but declined to comment further when contacted by Bloomberg.

The rejection applies to 96 non-operational Leopard 1 tanks currently stored in Italy, which are property of Ruag. The proposal was for the vehicles to be refurbished in Germany and then sent to Ukraine.

The announcement on Wednesday is unconnected to a separate sale of 25 Leopard 2 tanks of the Swiss army, which are supposed to go to German company Rheinmetall AG.

The latter deal recently won the support of the Swiss government and is expected to go through by next year. In this case, Germany has promised not to send the tanks to Ukraine, but to keep them at home to fill gaps in its own military.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-28/switzerland-rejects-sale-of-leopard-1-tanks-bound-for-ukraine

[NOVA Green]

Looks like satellites are now picking up activity of significant recent construction activities at an abandoned military base, which might lend credence to the theory that a significant number of "no contract" Wagner forces could be housed on Belarus soil.

If so, the obvious question would be what if any of their hardware would come with?

Satellite imagery shows that Belarus is rapidly building what appear to be temporary structures at a deserted military base, revealing a possible location for Wagner fighters who were given the option of relocating to the country after the group’s failed mutiny against President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

The construction was first visible in satellite images taken on Monday by Planet Labs, a private company with a network of shoebox-size satellites, two days after Wagner forces suddenly stopped their march on Moscow.

By Tuesday, the images showed that a sports field covering approximately eight acres within the gated military facility had been transformed, packed with at least six rows of what appear to be temporary structures, like large tents. The satellite imagery also shows similar construction in open areas next to the sports field.

The size, color and layout of the structures are similar to other military tent encampments that have been built in Russia and Belarus since early 2022. The images appear blurry because they were taken by Planet Labs’ medium-resolution Dove satellites. The company’s higher-resolution satellites have so far not been able to take a clear image of the site since construction began.

The base was formerly used by Belarus’s 465th Missile Brigade, which was formed in 1988 and relocated closer to Asipovichy in 2018. The unit is the only such Belarusian brigade to have Russian Iskander missiles, according to William Alberque, a nuclear weapons expert for the defense and security think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies. The Iskanders are capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear warheads.

You will need to log into your NYT account or use up a monthly free article to access the full story and see the grainy satellite footage.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/28/world/russia-ukraine-news