Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Well I’ll be, I thought this was Russian fake offensive to then say was beaten back but it seems Ukraine actually crossed the Dnipro and established a bridgehead
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1673056251234643970?s=12

[Dereich]

Will Wagner launch a campaign in the north?

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672960189920624640

Obviously not. Going against the Kyiv defenses would be suicide, particularly with their attrition in Bakhmut and with the MoD cutting off Wagner's best recruiting methods. And speaking of the Ministry of Defense, if they were shorting Wagner on ammunition and weaponry before they're definitely not going to be more generous to them now.

[Lykaon]

Will Wagner launch a campaign in the north?

While I’m sure the notion of that happening is giving you a woody, if General Wag attempts it, he and his band of murderers and rapists will be in hell meeting comrade Stalin before they see Ivankiv.

It’s forests, swamps, and radioactive soil there not to mention Ukraine probably has cannons and defensive lines trained on that road from Chornobyl. Also if they try it, I’d say that’s enough of a cause to invade Belarus and depose their bootleg Dr. Phil dictator. As Prigozhin showed us, it’s a clear shot to Moscow. Invade Russia through Belarus

[NOVA Green]

Will Wagner launch a campaign in the north?

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672960189920624640

Obviously not. Going against the Kyiv defenses would be suicide, particularly with their attrition in Bakhmut and with the MoD cutting off Wagner's best recruiting methods. And speaking of the Ministry of Defense, if they were shorting Wagner on ammunition and weaponry before they're definitely not going to be more generous to them now.

It is also important to note that so far Ukraine has not observed any significant movement along the Russian-Belarus border.

Ukraine has not seen an increase in equipment or personnel across the border with Belarus, said Lt. Gen. Serhiy Naev, a senior Ukrainian military leader, in a statement on Telegram. Under Russia’s reported agreement with Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader and some of his forces will go to Belarus.

Ukraine’s northern forces are increasing their vigilance as a precaution, Naev said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/25/russia-ukraine-war-wagner-putin-live-updates/

[Hindsight was 2020]

Lol Russia troops are calling in air support from telegram 😭
https://twitter.com/defmon3/status/1673091366304243714?s=12

[Torie]

Hopefully Ukraine Intelligence is wrong on this...


https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1673025433380573189?s=20

To provide a bit more context, the somewhat odd couple of Lindsay Graham and Richard Blumenthal are pushing the Biden administration to consider an attack on that plant by Russia to be an attack on NATO to the extent it releases bad air into NATO real estate. That does not make a whole lot of sense given that the way the planet rotates on its axis creates westerly prevailing winds away from western and central Europe. So the toxic rays most probably would poison those to the east, including some in mother Russia.

[Storr]

Sounds about right:

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1673102644150190083?s=20

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Generally speaking if Lord Dannatt suggests something as a possibility, then it is either entirely implausible or would only occur if the relevant actors were at once extremely drunk and extremely stupid.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672905540710682625?s=20

It would be easy to dismiss the Kadyrovtsy as hilariously ridiculous tik-tok clowns if they didn't have such a long history of torture and murder. After all, they've been arresting and torturing confessions out of anyone suspected of being gay in Chechnya for several years now.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1673074163471228928?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Well I’ll be, I thought this was Russian fake offensive to then say was beaten back but it seems Ukraine actually crossed the Dnipro and established a bridgehead
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1673056251234643970?s=12

Update: Not going well for the orcs 👀
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673111684490076160?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1673031778448158720?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Will Wagner launch a campaign in the north?

While I’m sure the notion of that happening is giving you a woody, if General WagF*g attempts it, he and his band of murderers and rapists will be in hell meeting comrade Stalin before they see Ivankiv.

It’s forests, swamps, and radioactive soil there not to mention Ukraine probably has cannons and defensive lines trained on that road from Chornobyl. Also if they try it, I’d say that’s enough of a cause to invade Belarus and depose their bootleg Dr. Phil dictator. As Prigozhin showed us, it’s a clear shot to Moscow. Invade Russia through Belarus

Not quite sure what the blank is in your post...

To give you the benefit of the doubt as a very new poster, I am assuming it is not an "a", since quite frankly this forum is a safe space, where terms that young middle school students might post while playing their online wargames in "casual conversation", since there is a certain word which many of us who grew up in the 1980s / early 1990s were targeted with, regardless of our sexual orientation.

Many of us regular posters and followers of this thread are well aware of Homophobia within Ukraine, not to mention openly Gay Ukrainians sighing up to fight against the Russian Invaders.

I remember way back decades ago at a punk rock show in Berlin in the early '90s, watching Oi Polloi sing the song "When Two Men Kiss".

This not the actual show, but I do have an Oi Polloi vinyl live in Berlin Album, while I was mosh-pitting when they are singing the song auf Deutsch "wenn sich zwei Männer küssen"...

[Lykaon]

Will Wagner launch a campaign in the north?

While I’m sure the notion of that happening is giving you a woody, if General WagF*g attempts it, he and his band of murderers and rapists will be in hell meeting comrade Stalin before they see Ivankiv.

It’s forests, swamps, and radioactive soil there not to mention Ukraine probably has cannons and defensive lines trained on that road from Chornobyl. Also if they try it, I’d say that’s enough of a cause to invade Belarus and depose their bootleg Dr. Phil dictator. As Prigozhin showed us, it’s a clear shot to Moscow. Invade Russia through Belarus

Not quite sure what the blank is in your post...

To give you the benefit of the doubt as a very new poster, I am assuming it is not an "a", since quite frankly this forum is a safe space, where terms that young middle school students might post while playing their online wargames in "casual conversation", since there is a certain word which many of us who grew up in the 1980s / early 1990s were targeted with, regardless of our sexual orientation.

Many of us regular posters and followers of this thread are well aware of Homophobia within Ukraine, not to mention openly Gay Ukrainians sighing up to fight against the Russian Invaders.

I heard that name from some friends of mine in The Czech Republic and I guess that’s how some people refer to Wagner operatives.

I’m from a much younger generation and I think the South Park episode on that word would help to understand my use of it. By the time I was old enough to hear it (middle school 2007-10) it generally means either a douche bag, ass, or other loser (which describes Wagner and most Russians in general)

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Will Wagner launch a campaign in the north?

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672960189920624640

If Putin gives Prigozhin arms, ammunition, and an army to command that close to Russia after what he just pulled, he might be the stupidest leader in Russian history.

[Virginiá]

Good thread

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1673048859025584128

[CanadianDemocrat]

Hopefully Ukraine Intelligence is wrong on this...


https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1673025433380573189?s=20

The Ukrainians need to push west to Enerhodar and surround the Russian forces occupying the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Stopping Russian nuclear terrorism is more important than taking the land bridge to Crimea.

[MATTROSE94]

Iran and China seem to be the only BRICs powers to be anywhere near competent. As Russia falls further into irrelevance as their capabilities get contracted out to Wagner, the remaining two are going to pick up the pieces. I do not see any way now with the continued failures of Shoigu and Gerasimov along with the head icon change things on the ground in Ukraine. Russian politics will continue to get exceptionally nasty as people take their grievances out into the open now.

The popular support Russia does have in Serbia will continue to degrade at an accelerating pace as they are not relevant enough to give them backup. Wagner might get contracted to another European theater if things escalate in the Balkans. Anything else will be decided by the ballot box in the next year, and if that does not lead to a solid conclusion, the bullet will look increasingly enticing.

Xi Jinping needs to seriously contemplate if he should get involved in Russian politics and work to clean the chaff else risk another tantrum and further economic decline.

I think that China and Iran have strong enough military forces to intervene in Russia on Putin’s behalf if his regime starts to get threatened. Putin is still extremely popular, so the Russian people will welcome Iranian and Chinese intervention if things go south for Putin. The IRGC leadership also mentioned that they will do everything in their ability to support Putin. The Iranian people will also applaud that decision if the IRGC decides to go down that route.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/SevaUT/status/1673136973840629761?s=20

[pppolitics]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-accuses-israel-of-pro-russian-stance-in-blistering-statement/

"In blistering critique, Ukraine accuses Israel of pro-Russian stance"



Another episode in "making friends and influencing people"

He is right though.

Israel hasn't lifted a finger to help Ukraine.

Not surprising since Israel, like Russia, is in the business of stealing land from other countries.

[pppolitics]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-accuses-israel-of-pro-russian-stance-in-blistering-statement/

"In blistering critique, Ukraine accuses Israel of pro-Russian stance"



Another episode in "making friends and influencing people"

Biden really needs to cut the Israelis loose. They have been a thorn in Ukraine's side since the beginning and clearly want to realign with Russia anyways.

Israel is a parasite.

All it does it take and never give.

[Frodo]

How likely is it we are going to see an updated version of this scene from 'Doctor Zhivago' (in real life) as the already low morale of Russian troops stuck in Ukraine continues to deteriorate with mounting losses and a pointless war with no end in sight?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743555624755200?s=20
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743562616684545?s=20
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743569520570371?s=20

The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over

Alas, this relationship is not over. Most likely, the Wagner Group will concentrate all its troops in Belarus and launch an offensive against Kyiv, while the Ukrainians are busy counter-offensive in the South-East. In this way, it will quasi atone for its guilt before Putin in the eyes of the Russian public.

We remains to hope for external obstacles, to which the Russian military is always very sensitive.

An offensive on Kyiv would be suicide, Ukraine well fortified the area since Russia returned and they have a solid army size defending it. On top of that Wagner wouldn’t have enough men as they not only have to take Kyiv but Sumy as well because if they didn’t the troops stationed there would just hit Wagner in the rear

The number of Wagnerites is 50-70 thousand. Plus, they can secretly include Belarusian units in their composition, as supposedly volunteers. Plus, they have the support of the elite units of the Russian army. Plus, they proved to be the most effective part of the Russian troops, so much so that the Ukrainian commanders began to speak of them with respect. I'm not saying they will definitely attack, but brushing off this threat is just blind optimism to the point where it becomes suicidal.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Will Wagner launch a campaign in the north?

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672960189920624640

Obviously not. Going against the Kyiv defenses would be suicide, particularly with their attrition in Bakhmut and with the MoD cutting off Wagner's best recruiting methods. And speaking of the Ministry of Defense, if they were shorting Wagner on ammunition and weaponry before they're definitely not going to be more generous to them now.

Lol, how stubbornly people believe information coming from a notorious bullsh-generator (Prigozhin) and which has already been refuted by many sources independent of each other.

[Storr]

My king is alive:

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1673194620522569728?s=20

Remember that since Shoigu is not an ethnic Russian, he's not a threat to Putin's power. That's probably a key reason why he's been kept around despite being ineffective at best.

[NOVA Green]

My king is alive:

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1673194620522569728?s=20

Remember that since Shoigu is not an ethnic Russian, he's not a threat to Putin's power. That's probably a key reason why he's been kept around despite being ineffective at best.

Yes there is a term within the Corporate business world which is increasingly becoming a common one "Helicopter Boss".

In terms of the business world this is generally seen as a negative character trait these, what with micro-management of skilled employees and all that.

Shoigu is definitely the absolute opposite, to the point that he appears to be more of an "Uber General" who really doesn't do s**t, except perhaps oversee the money and military logistics side of the house, where generally within the Russian top-down command structure, he is most likely involved in the business of stealing thermal underwear destined for Russian troops in Ukraine, ensuring the various tiers of military leaders beneath get their cuts off the take, to the point, where suddenly there are 100,000+ Russian Mobniks that don't even have decent winter gear.

In this sense what Prigo' did was call out the corruption and the rot from the very top of the Russian military command, to the point where the average Russian conscript and even what is left of the "professionalization of the Russian Military" (Basically post '14 initiative) gives out greater credence to what most of the grunts already know.

The fact that he does that street level convict language from the 1980s, perhaps makes it even more authentic when it comes to the critique of the Putin Invasion attempting to "De-nazifi" and "demilitarize" Ukraine.

Still, in some ways, one might argue that the sleeping figures are actually the ethnic minority Russians disproportionally sent off to fight and die in Putin's war.

I suspect there is a ticking timebomb there just waiting.