Canada Federal Representation 2024

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Very exciting!

Kiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk --> So small, but I do understand keeping the Indigenous communities together.  At least this way the entire North is below quotient. Before this, the urban (and white) city of Kenora had it "good" by being in a special consideration riding (below quotient) without having any business being given that special consideration.  So, I tend to agree with this.

I'm personally not a huge fan of having huge variations in population, but it's tradition to have "special consideration" ridings for underrepresented communities, so I get it. This would be the only safe NDP seat in Northern Ontario, so Charlie Angus may prefer to run here - although it might not be a good look for the NDP to run a white man in a specifically majority-indigenous riding.

Cochrane - Timmins - Temiskaming --> This is a great riding. Francophone communities of interest together, these communities have much more in common than they did with the previous ones they were grouped with (James Bay coast, Manitoulin Island). I would move Hornepayne to the Sault riding (and name it Algoma).  Oddly, Hornepayne is grouped in with Timmins at the Far north east for its Public Health (Porcupine), but for everything else, it grouped in with Algoma

No comment here, it's a pretty good riding.

Sault Ste Marie --> Add Hornepayne, rename Algoma. Not sure what to do with Chapleau though.

Yeah, Algoma would make more sense for this riding. Most of the population lives in the Soo, but the area is too large to just name after one city. Alternatively, SSM--Chapleau or SSM--Wawa would also work.

Thunder Bay --> Splitting it in two, it is a little unique in the sense it was traditionally 2 unique villages, right?  Is that why they don't make an urban Thunder Bay Riding, and then have the outer suburbs be one riding with the rest of the vast rural North West? In Sudbury (or Guelph), they chose to make the one urban riding, and have the outer portions grouped in with the more rural areas surrounding it.

The thing is, if you made a "Thunder Bay Centre" type riding, you'd have an enormous leftover riding spanning from Kenora to Marathon. For context, that's about a 770 km or 8.5 hour drive. If you're going to have two ridings in the stretch from Kenora to the north Shore of Lake Superior, it's most logical to split Thunder Bay in half.

Collingwood - Blue Mountains --> I like the name, and don't mind that it crosses the Simcoe / Grey boundary.  In fact, these areas should really be in one county as they are essentially becoming 1 community.

Ehh, I would have preferred Simcoe--Grey, just for continuance. Although in terms of common parlance, Collingwood--Blue Mountains is probably more descriptive than Simcoe--Grey, so it makes sense.

Penetanguishene - Couchiohing --> That's a mouthful. I don't like the grouping of Orillia (and areas east of there) with the MIdland/Penetang communities along Georgian Bay, but I don't see any good alternatives.

Again, I'm not sure why they didn't just keep Simcoe North here, it's essentially the same riding.

Brampton - Mayfield West --> I'm not sure what area Mayfield West is? The South Caledon community in this riding is named Southfields I believe. I would change the name. Brampton - Caledon South, or Brampton - Southfields Village

Mayfield is the road that separates Brampton and Caledon, so it does make sense for the local geography.

Brampton North --> Renamed from East? Weird, the region of Peel uses East - West on a diagonal given its location slanted parallel with Lake Ontario. Everyone in Brampton considers this to be the Eastern part of Brampton, even if technically it is the Northern most position.

I would actually prefer Brampton--Castlemore for this riding. Castlemore is a pretty big neighbourhood and central in this riding. But even Brampton East would make more sense.

Brampton Chinguacousy --> I get the change to Indigenous names, but Springdale I think fits better here.

The problem I have with using "Chinguacousy" here is that Chinguacousy Road is a major connector in Brampton, and is nowhere near this riding. If they wanted to include that name somewhere, it would make more sense for the rather uninspired "Brampton Southwest" riding (which is a terrible name to begin with, considering that riding literally spans to the northern end of Brampton). Both "North" and "Springdale" would be better suffixes here.

Humber --> Interesting riding.  We know they needed to cross the Humber river because Etobicoke is too populated for only 3 ridings, but this is a weird place to do it. The demos are very different, ultra rich Kingsway area of Etobicoke, and the old York/Weston areas.

Yeah this riding has to be re-worked. The CoI's on the two sides of the Humber are vastly different in this part.

Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Why not Etobicoke North--Weston?

Taiaiako'n - High Park --> Parkdale is a meaningful name to what has always been a working class (and lower SES) community, not sure replacing that name does much good. If an indigenous name needs to be included here, then maybe remove the High Park name and just name it Parkdale - Taiaiako'n. The Northern Boundary change is odd to me, although I think it only affects a few dwellings, but I think the railway is a more natural buffer between communities.

Yeah, I get that they're trying to include more indigenous themes, but there are better places to do this. The pre-European village of Taiaiako'n is located west of High Park, which is already in the western part of the riding, so it doesn't make sense to substitute Parkdale for Taiaiako'n. Parkdale-Taiaiako'n would make more sense, although from a purely descriptive POV, Parkdale--High Park remains the best name for this riding.

[adma]

Very exciting!

Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Why not Etobicoke North--Weston?

The trouble with that is that the *actual* former town of Weston is S of the 401, i.e. at the N end of the proposed Humber riding...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Very exciting!

Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Why not Etobicoke North--Weston?

The trouble with that is that the *actual* former town of Weston is S of the 401, i.e. at the N end of the proposed Humber riding...

I was thinking about Weston Rd, which is probably a more relevant geographic reference at this point than the former town of Weston which hasn't existed since 1967.

[adma]

Very exciting!

Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Why not Etobicoke North--Weston?

The trouble with that is that the *actual* former town of Weston is S of the 401, i.e. at the N end of the proposed Humber riding...

I was thinking about Weston Rd, which is probably a more relevant geographic reference at this point than the former town of Weston which hasn't existed since 1967.

But even if it hasn't existed since 1967, the former town still retains a *very* distinct, discrete identity as a neighbourhood--it didn't just dry up and blow away with amalgamation.  (It'd be like last redistribution when they tried giving the name "Oak Ridges" to King-Vaughan, overlooking the fact that while the riding may straddle the namesake moraine, the actual community of Oak Ridges was further to the E--thus Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill.)

The problem is that the E-of-the-Humber neighbourhoods have a relatively weak "name identity"--in municipal-designation terms, there's Humber Summit/Humbermede/Humberlea; though I'd also consider "Emery Village" as a possibility, as that's the historical name for the Weston/Finch crossroads and has gotten a BIA/redevelopment-boosted reboot lately...

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm working on a proposal to the commission. I will probably do a write up of the entire province, but I'm starting with Ottawa. Here is my proposed map. I decided to go with a "least change" map, but kept within their desired 10% of the quotient:



For Eastern Ontario, I am proposing just three changes from the current map:

Smiths Falls to Leeds-Grenville
Glengarry North to Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry (as per the commission)
Kingston east of the Great Cataraqui River and Amherst Island to Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston
(oh, and the western border of Prescott-Russell is shifted as per the above map)

Admittedly, Eastern Ontario's ridings are undersized versus Ottawa's being oversized, but they're all within 10% of the quotient!

[mileslunn]

Anyone able to get the 2021 results for redistribution.  I would be interested in seat count.  Also for 2019 and 2015 interested in seat count but not necessarily details on each.  For 2021 since most recent details should matter.

[Hatman 🍁]

You'll have to use ridingbuilder just like everybody else.

[mileslunn]

You'll have to use ridingbuilder just like everybody else.

Do you have link to it?

[Hatman 🍁]

You'll have to use ridingbuilder just like everybody else.

Do you have link to it?

http://election-atlas.ca/ridingbuilder/

[toaster]

Brampton - Mayfield West --> I'm not sure what area Mayfield West is? The South Caledon community in this riding is named Southfields I believe. I would change the name. Brampton - Caledon South, or Brampton - Southfields Village

Mayfield is the road that separates Brampton and Caledon, so it does make sense for the local geography.

Yes it is, but I don't think there's any precedence in naming ridings based on one of their bordering roads. There's also a part of Brampton that is North of Mayfield. What's weird is adding "West" after Mayfield, when Mayfield runs from one end of Peel to the other (and all is included in this riding).  If it is being named after the new suburban developments in the west (along Mayfield), then the name doesn't cover the communities of Southfields and South Caledon. Just an odd choice.

Yeah, I get that they're trying to include more indigenous themes, but there are better places to do this. The pre-European village of Taiaiako'n is located west of High Park, which is already in the western part of the riding, so it doesn't make sense to substitute Parkdale for Taiaiako'n. Parkdale-Taiaiako'n would make more sense, although from a purely descriptive POV, Parkdale--High Park remains the best name for this riding.

Also noticed this riding now stretches east to include Liberty Village. I'm not sure of a name to represent the western and eastern portions of this riding, but choosing two names that refer to the far western portion of the riding don't make sense.

Arguably no more "weird" a mix than that in the now-former St Paul's riding.  (And one presumes, perfect for Michael Ford to run for provincial re-election next time)

Yes, definitely an easy win for Ford here. I wonder if Frances Nunziata wins this ward municipally (assuming we keep municipal wards the same as federal).  Maybe she'll retire by then.

[adma]

Brampton - Mayfield West --> I'm not sure what area Mayfield West is? The South Caledon community in this riding is named Southfields I believe. I would change the name. Brampton - Caledon South, or Brampton - Southfields Village

Mayfield is the road that separates Brampton and Caledon, so it does make sense for the local geography.

Yes it is, but I don't think there's any precedence in naming ridings based on one of their bordering roads. There's also a part of Brampton that is North of Mayfield. What's weird is adding "West" after Mayfield, when Mayfield runs from one end of Peel to the other (and all is included in this riding).  If it is being named after the new suburban developments in the west (along Mayfield), then the name doesn't cover the communities of Southfields and South Caledon. Just an odd choice.

Actually, Mayfield West has, for Caledon planning purposes, become the official omnibus label for *all* the cross-border subdivisions, Southfields included.  (And remember, too, that "Mayfield West" is named not for the road per se, but relative to the former hamlet which the road is named after--which happens to be east of the subdivisions we're discussing.  And as for the N-of-Mayfield part of Brampton, that's the former hamlet of Snelgrove.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Weird ridingbuilder data glitch:



You're looking at the famous Tory stronghold of...downtown Ottawa???

[the506]

yeah, it was like that for a couple hours. York Region somehow became an NDP haven too.

I was splitting some of the blocks up so they followed all proposed riding boundaries, Excel glitched out while recalculating everything, and I didn't realize til it was too late. All fixed now.

[Krago]

Any thoughts about this proposal for Waterloo Region?

• Cambridge -- 121,261
• Kitchener Centre -- 120,321
• Kitchener South -- 112,979
• Kitchener--Conestoga -- 111,168
• Waterloo -- 121,436

[Krago]

Here are the quotas I used for my Ontario map (https://www.bit.ly/Canada343):

[NOTE: I fixed the chart to indicate that some of the Six Nations and New Credit territory extends into the Census Division of Haldimand-Norfolk.]

[Krago]

I got a fan letter from a guy in rural Middlesex Country who wanted his town to be in a riding with London, not Stratford.  Here is the best that I could come up with.

• Bluewater Shores -- 113,936
• Chatham-Kent--Sun Parlour -- 125,405
• Elgin--Lambeth -- 112,448
• Essex -- 124,676
• London Centre -- 118,744
• London--Fanshawe -- 124,786
• London West -- 123,712
• Middlesex--London North -- 115,625
• Perth--Huron--Bruce -- 119,428
• Sarnia--St. Clair--Kent North -- 115,190
• Windsor--Tecumseh -- 125,699
• Windsor West -- 125,490

[Krago]

I have changed my Northern Ontario ridings to (mostly) conform to what the Commission has proposed.

The differences are:

- I used the southern boundary of the provincial riding of Kiiwetinoong for my proposal, to avoid having different federal and provincial boundaries in the area

- I made a couple of small changes to avoid splitting the municipalities of Conmee and Huron Shores

- There are only 50 people who live along Hwy 60 in Algonquin Park, but it would be easier to service them from Huntsville than North Bay

- I changed some of the riding names so that somebody here would complain about my proposal

• Kiiwetinoong--Mushkegowuk -- 35,900
• Nickel Belt--Manitoulin -- 99,151
• Nipissing -- 99,101
• Parry Sound--Muskoka -- 102,303
• Sault Ste Marie--Algoma -- 97,426
• Sudbury -- 113,608
• Thunder Bay--Lake Nipigon -- 99,036
• Thunder Bay--Lake of the Woods -- 101,521
• Timmins--Cochrane--Timiskaming -- 107,092

[toaster]

Hornepayne should be in Sault Ste Marie.  What's the reasoning for not being with the rest of the Algoma district?

[MB11]

Hornepayne should be in Sault Ste Marie.  What's the reasoning for not being with the rest of the Algoma district?

Speculating the Commission noticed it has a greater percentage of bilingual people than Sault Ste. Marie and wanted to protect that interest by putting it in a more Francophone riding, and/or saw it is slightly closer to Highway 11 than 17.

If neither of those move the community of interest north to the Highway 11 corridor than maybe it was an oversight or something else.

[Philly D.]

I've made a few small changes in Longueuil and Rouville MRC which slightly improve population equality (I'm planning to republish the proposal on a newer page in preparation for the public consultation on the 13th). I also propose a larger change in Mauricie based an existing provincial division of Mékinac MRC (the change is the second photo):





More specifically, they were:

Maskinongé—Saint-Maurice	106,395	-2,39%	Maskinongé MRC, Shawinigan and Trois-Rivières west of A-55.
Portneuf—Champlain	110,234	+1,13%	Portneuf, Les Chenaux, Mékinac MRCs, La Tuque and St-Louis-de-France.
Trois-Rivières	111,949	+2,71%	The bulk of the city not in one of the two neighbouring ridings.

They would be replaced by the following:

Saint-Maurice—Maskinongé	109,450	+0,41%	Maskinongé MRC, Shawinigan, La Tuque, Notre-Dame-du-Mont-Carmel and the part of Mékinac MRC provincially in Saint-Maurice—Laviolette (the latter four pieces precisely constitute Saint-Maurice—Laviolette.)
Portneuf—Champlain	111,321	+2,13%	Portneuf, Les Chenaux and Mékinac MRCs not in previous riding, Trois-Rivières composed of St-Louis-de-France, Ste-Marthe-du-Cap and Cap-de-la-Madeleine north of A-40.
Trois-Rivières	107,807	-1,09%	The bulk of the city not in the previous riding.

The latter proposal is closer in terms of population equality. Saint-Maurice—Maskinongé will tend towards lower electoral quotients, but this makes sense given its size. N.D.-du-Mont-Carmel is in Les Chenaux MRC but before 2002 it was in the same MRC as Shawinigan. It also puts Trois-Rivières in only two ridings (although at the expense of splitting two more MRCs). The main drawback is that the Trois-Rivières riding has a negative quotient and that if it must expand in the future it is trickier (Saint-Maurice—Maskinongé can add Saint-Tite and Hérouxville quite naturally.)

[MB11]

1 small thing I suggested the Commission can do with Burlington-Milton West if they’re doing a 2 riding proposal for Milton is to remove the rural portion of Oakville and Halton Hills and add the area of Milton bounded by Main, Thompson, Ontario, and Steeles. This reduces the municipalities in Burlington-Milton West from 4 to 2 and unifies the sections of Urban Milton built before the 1990s (there was minimal development in the 90s and then a bunch from 2000ish) bounded by Bronte, Thompson, Derry, and Steeles.

A bunch of people will probably also argue for just 1 urban Milton riding which I wouldn’t mind either tbh.

[Krago]

Here's another kick at the Middlesex can, so to speak.  What say the collective wisdom?

• London Centre -- 126,597
• London--Fanshawe -- 126,271
• London West -- 121,802
• Middlesex--Lambeth--Lambton -- 109,621
• Perth--London North -- 116,946
• Sarnia--Lambton -- 109,045

[Philly D.]

London is one of the hardest parts of Ontario to draw due to the municipal boundaries. The London-Middlesex riding could extend slightly more into London, but absent anything exotic with Elgin, Oxford or Norfolk counties this is probably the best we can do. The mere fact that Elgin-Middlesex-Thames could even be proposed, despite the Chair being from London, says quite a bit about the situation (it also says quite a bit about the proposal, but I'll let Hatman post his writeup if he ever gets to it).

I also rejigged the North Shore ridings in Quebec to improve MRC cohesion and put Sainte-Sophie back where it rightfully belongs.

Even with half an extra riding on the North Shore there was little room for manoeuvring. How Krago maintains his proposal for that area of the province, I'll never understand.

The hearings in Québec have started, beginning with Gaspé and Matane. The Bloc seems universally opposed to the whole map everywhere. They're opposed to it in Drummond, Lac-Saint-Jean and even in Prévost. They sent the MP for La Prairie to Gaspé to oppose the map!

[Krago]

Changes to the London-area on my Ontario proposal.

https://bit.ly/Canada343


Nova Scotia Alternative Map


Answer to trivia question:

The Woodlands of Sunset is a long-term care home that lies directly on the Welland/Pelham(Fonthill) municipal border.



Federally, the residents vote in Niagara Centre (Welland).
Poll 505: Lib 13, Cons 7, NDP 5, Green 1

Provincially, the residents vote in Niagara West (Fonthill).
Poll 713: Lib 14, PC 12, NDP 7, Green 3, Libert 2

[Poirot]

The hearings in Québec have started, beginning with Gaspé and Matane. The Bloc seems universally opposed to the whole map everywhere. They're opposed to it in Drummond, Lac-Saint-Jean and even in Prévost. They sent the MP for La Prairie to Gaspé to oppose the map!

Many MRC are opposing proposal in their region. MRC Matane and MRC Matapedia don't like being split, if the region lose a seat at least they want MRC limit to be respected. I don't know why the commission is reckless every redistribution. It's not the same people so they never learn. For some regions MRC is important so take that into account.

MRC Drummond don't want some municipalities to be transfered to Becancour-Saurel.
MRC Vallée-de-la-Gatineau took position against the proposed map.

Maybe the commission needs more time to draw their original proposal.

Was there a reaction to the changes on the island of Montreal?