Canada Federal Representation 2024

[mileslunn]

My guess is in Atlantic Canada only minor changes as same seat count.  But urban or rural areas nearby  see ridings shrink while more remote rural get larger.  Cape Breton-Canso for example I could see taking up even more territory on mainland thus making it less Cape Breton and more mainland which probably helps Tories in that riding. 

For Quebec, this is probably bad news for BQ or Tories as likely rural ridings get bigger although likely hurts BQ most as I believe Gaspesie region is seeing biggest population decline.  Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine probably gets large enough that it will be tough for Liberals to hold.  Greater Montreal area growing so I doubt they take away a seat there.  In fact if anything Greater Montreal area should probably have more not less seats.

Ontario: GTA likely gets new one.  Northern Ontario is seeing biggest population decrease so I wouldn't be surprised if they lose one.  For rural areas, its sort of a mix.  Rural areas near the GTA like Simcoe County are growing but further away declining although in Southwestern Ontario population stagnant so not sure if they lose a seat.  Actually long term, rural areas I could see growing in next redistribution as with more working remotely and high cost of living, I think exodus from cities to countryside for those who can work remotely could happen.  Already seeing it in US as I believe New York City is losing people over this.

Manitoba: Minor changes but nothing too big

Saskatchewan: Saskatoon and Regina getting larger so seat more urban focused and rural larger.  Heck for Scheer's riding, wouldn't be surprised if they lop off a large rural part and it is more urban based.  If he switches to rural one is super safe but runs in urban one might face a tougher fight but still favoured.

Alberta: Calgary and Edmonton gain one while perhaps one in the nearby rural areas as it seems rural areas close to the two cities are growing quite rapidly, but rural areas further away are actually losing people.  So using US term, probably another exurban riding as exurbs of two cities growing fast. 

British Columbia: Lots of places growing so probably Interior loses one while Fraser Valley, South Vancouver Island, and Okanagan Valley see ridings get a bit smaller.  New one probably in Surrey as that is fastest growing part of city.  So good news for Liberals although NDP and Tories have in past been competitive in Surrey.

[mileslunn]

At least we don't have a district the size of Saint Pierre and Miquelon (pop. 6000, 5 times smaller than Nunavut).

Wait, that's your beef with French apportionment, that we let Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon be represented in parliament? What do you want to do with it exactly, disenfranchise them completely? Or put it in the same district as some other island at the other end of the world? Obviously that would be neither fair nor rational. This isn't malapportionment, it's the inevitable result of having a small, remote community that needs to be represented.

Look, you seem really desperate to prove some kind of point here and I don't get why. It's not a national pissing context. It's pretty obvious that the way Canada apportions its seats is seriously f**ked up and should be fixed, for the sake of Canadians themselves. It's not some huge assault on your country's honor or something.

Canada is a massive country and many northern ridings are big enough as is so making them even larger would be silly.  As for apportionment in each province, lots of countries that are federations do this to ensure all regions represented fairly.  Even in Europe, many countries give special seats for minority groups to ensure they have representation.  Its true Canada is imperfect but if you look at provinces now it goes like this:

Alberta, BC, and Ontario underrepresented, but they are also fastest growing so due to lag between census and change in boundaries that will always be an issue to some degree.

Quebec is pretty much bang on while Manitoba is slightly over but not too far off.

Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland definitely get more than warranted but we are talking mostly around 2 seats in each so in big scheme of things doesn't make a huge difference.

Agreed Prince Edward Island is probably the most skewed.  Even if they had only 2 seats would still be over, but changing this requires constitutional amendment.

Territories due to remoteness deserve their own seat much the way French overseas territories even if population doesn't warrant it each get their own.

[mileslunn]

I suspect on throne speech, that will be BQ sub-amendment and probably price BQ requires for support.  Certainly if Trudeau goes along with cutting a seat in Quebec, I suspect Liberals pay next time around in Quebec.  Tories also could have opening if they oppose this although might anger some of the Western base who feel we already give too much to Quebec.

Best solution is keep Quebec at 78 seats and add another seat to BC, Alberta, and Ontario so 2 new for BC and Ontario and 4 new for Alberta and that solves the issue.

[mileslunn]

I like the 100,000 rule per riding and for most of our history ridings have been smaller than that but problem is country has grown much faster and ridings not kept paced.  Sticking with constitution I would do the following:

44 for Alberta
51 for British Columbia
144 for Ontario
85 for Quebec

All other provinces would stay the same as still overrepresented and only get more when grow enough. So house would be 387 seats and while not quite perfect at least closer than it is now.

[mileslunn]

Anyone able to get the 2021 results for redistribution.  I would be interested in seat count.  Also for 2019 and 2015 interested in seat count but not necessarily details on each.  For 2021 since most recent details should matter.

[mileslunn]

You'll have to use ridingbuilder just like everybody else.

Do you have link to it?

[mileslunn]

New Brunswick is now out https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/nb/rprt/nb-fin_e.pdf

[mileslunn]

Here is how each riding went

Acadie-Bathurst

2021

LPC 65%
CPC 14%
NDP 11%
PPC 6%
GPC 3%
OTH 1%

2019

LPC 55%
CPC 21%
NDP 14%
GPC 9%

Beausejour

2021

LPC 56%
CPC 19%
NDP 11%
PPC 8%
GPC 6%
OTH 1%

2019

LPC 46%
GPC 27%
CPC 18%
NDP 7%
PPC 2%

Fredericton-Oromocto

2021

LPC 38%
CPC 34%
NDP 13%
GPC 13%

2019

GPC 33%
LPC 29%
CPC 29%
NDP 6%
PPC 2%

Fundy-Royal

2021

CPC 47%
LPC 25%
NDP 15%
PPC 9%
GPC 5%

2019

CPC 44%
LPC 25%
GPC 16%
NDP 10%
PPC 3%

Madawaska-Restigouche

2021

LPC 52%
CPC 28%
PPC 8%
NDP 6%
GPC 3%

2019

LPC 50%
CPC 30%
GPC 14%
NDP 6%

Miramichi-Grand Lake

2021

CPC 46%
LPC 37%
NDP 8%
PPC 5%
GPC 5%

2019

CPC 37%
LPC 34%
GPC 13%
NDP 8%
PPC 3%

Moncton-Dieppe

2021

LPC 50%
CPC 22%
NDP 17%
PPC 6%
GPC 4%

2019

LPC 44%
CPC 23%
GPC 18%
NDP 12%
PPC 2%

Saint John- St. Croix

2021

CPC 47%
LPC 28%
NDP 13%
PPC  8%
GPC 4%

2019

CPC 47%
LPC 27%
GPC 13%
NDP 9%
PPC 3%

Saint John-Kennebecasis

2021

LPC 43%
CPC 36%
NDP 13%
PPC 5%
GPC 3%

2019

CPC 37%
LPC 36%
NDP 12%
GPC 10%
PPC 2%
OTH 3%

Tobique-Mactaquac

2021

CPC 53%
LPC 22%
NDP 11%
PPC  7%
GPC 5%

2019

CPC 52%
LPC 22%
GPC 15%
NDP 8%
PPC 3%

So in 2021 same results but in 2019, Conservatives would have won 5 seats (gaining Miramichi-Grand Lake and Saint John-Kennebacasis) while Liberals only 4 seats, Greens 1 seat.  Off course possible Tories would have held Saint John-Kennebacasis in 2021 if gained in 2019 as Wayne Long somewhat a maverick so got a fair number of personal votes.  By same token, Liberals only had a 4 point lead in 2019, while 8 point in 2021 (largely thanks to collapse of Greens helping Liberals while rise of PPC hurting Tories).  Much like 2018 provincial, Tories can lose popular vote in New Brunswick and win more seats as their vote more efficient unlike in most provinces or nationally.

[mileslunn]

New Brunswick is now out https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/nb/rprt/nb-fin_e.pdf

St. John remains cracked in 2.

Most of it is in Saint John-Kennebacasis.  Small portion in Saint John-St. Croix, but latter riding largely rural while former mostly urban.

[mileslunn]

Also Riverview now entirely in Fundy-Royal which makes sense.  Riverview being suburban is more competitive than most of Fundy-Royal, but far better for Conservatives than either Moncton or Dieppe are when Tories tend to lose badly.  True Moncton occasionally goes Tory, but more so at provincial than federal level and federally only in 2011 when very strong splits.  Dieppe always goes Liberal.

[mileslunn]

Vancouver West Broadway is also better for the NDP at a similar vote spread 40% LPC 31 NDP; Vancouver Centre also at 41% LPC 30% NDP... is that right? the number being SO similar?  

The NDP have to worry more about the elimination of South Okanagan—West Kootenay; it looks like the new Similkameen-West Kootenay is a razor edge NDP seat, 39% to CPC 37%; Columbia-Kootenay-Southern Rookies is about the same even with added territory, so still worth targetting.  

Keep in mind that these new seats will create very new dynamics. For example, there is a lot of natural NDP territory in Kitsilano (David Eby's provincial seat) in the new Vancouver West Broadway that was not really tapped in the last few elections when it was all part of the totally unwinnable Vancouver-Quadra seat - so the NDP vote in that area is likely a lot higher than last election results would indicate. Similarly, Vancouver South was never a winnable seat for the NDP but the easternmost part of it that is now merged with a chunk of Burnaby is solidly NDP provincially and could all yield more votes than the 2021 poll by poll results in that area would suggest.

I call this the "assimilation effect" - when redistribution puts an area in a new riding with totally different dynamics and all of a sudden the party you might have voted for in the past but didn't because they were not competitive in the seat, is now no longer a wasted vote.

Bang-on; the NDP almost won Van-Granville and this distribution does benefit the NDP in Vancouver. As you say, the NDP can put greater focus on candidate and money, ground-game in three more Vancouver seats (If only Hedy Fry would retire in Van-Centre LOL) all with a path for NDP wins.

Vancouver-Granville was more due to local politics as Liberal candidate caught flipping several homes and with high housing prices that is a good way to lose any Vancouver riding.

Keep in mind that these new seats will create very new dynamics. For example, there is a lot of natural NDP territory in Kitsilano (David Eby's provincial seat) in the new Vancouver West Broadway that was not really tapped in the last few elections when it was all part of the totally unwinnable Vancouver-Quadra seat - so the NDP vote in that area is likely a lot higher than last election results would indicate. Similarly, Vancouver South was never a winnable seat for the NDP but the easternmost part of it that is now merged with a chunk of Burnaby is solidly NDP provincially and could all yield more votes than the 2021 poll by poll results in that area would suggest.

I call this the "assimilation effect" - when redistribution puts an area in a new riding with totally different dynamics and all of a sudden the party you might have voted for in the past but didn't because they were not competitive in the seat, is now no longer a wasted vote.

I don't know you can really use provincial results as you have a lot of federal Liberal-BC NDP voters as BC Liberals seen more as conservatives than liberals and living right next door to Eby's riding, it tends to be more your well to do urban educated liberal types who would only go NDP if Liberals fell to third or disappeared as would take NDP over Conservatives.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have the results by new boundaries for Alberta, BC, and Ontario?

[mileslunn]

Results in terms of numbers are

157 Liberals
126 Conservatives
34  BQ
24  NDP
2    Greens

Atlantic Canada same results

Quebec

BQ 34
Liberals 33
Conservatives 10
NDP 1

Ontario

Liberals 77
Conservatives 40
NDP 4
Greens 1

Manitoba no change

Saskatchewan

Conservatives 13
Liberals          1

Alberta

Conservatives 34
NDP 2
Liberals 1

British Columbia

Liberals 15
Conservatives 14
NDP 13
Greens 1