Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Hatman 🍁]

There are (northern) New Democrats in the north fighting to keep that 10th seat (which I assume is Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin), a riding that makes absolutely no sense in terms of connections, communities of interest, No highway connections, just to keep an extra "safe" NDP seat is way too hyper partisan, sounds of gerrymandering.  And I'm an NDP supporter, usually.  Kap and Hearst should be in a riding with Timmins - these are communities of interest, they have nothing in common with Manitoulin Island, other than the fact that the commission created this absurd riding some time ago.

It shocks me to hear Charlie Angus fight so hard, when the majority of his residents in Timmins, would be better served by someone in a smaller (geographic) riding that could focus on the issues in the community.

No seat in the North is safe anymore, but I am betting Hughes will just run in the new Nickel Belt riding, and may even be favoured. Nickel Belt is usually the NDP's best riding provincially anyway.

Checking in ridingbuilder, the NDP actually might pick up a seat until something makes people stop voting like in 2019 and 2021: the Nickel Belt and Cochrane-Timiskaming (yay for Angus) ridings are NDP and they would be the favourites to make a pickup in the Kiiwetinoong riding but that depends a lot on the candidate.

Come to think of it, Kiiwetinoong would probably remain a fairly safe NDP seat, as long as FNs keep voting NDP. That is not a guarantee though, as there have been cases were they have backed popular Liberal candidates in similar ridings (Keewatinook, MB in 2006 for example), or just stayed home (recent Athabasca, SK by-election).

[Krago]

Thoughts?

[Hatman 🍁]

I would call that Muskoka riding "Muskoka-Almaguin" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almaguin_Highlands)

[Krago]

The Nova Scotia Commission has released its final report.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/ns/rprt/index_e.aspx


Here is the map:  https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/ebv/en/?locale=en-ca&prov=ns


The four Halifax-area seats range in population from +12% to +19% above the provincial quota.

The other seven seats range from -15% to +8%.

There is a new 'post-industrial' seat in Cape Breton called Sydney--Glace Bay.

[Oryxslayer]

The Nova Scotia Commission has released its final report.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/ns/rprt/index_e.aspx


Here is the map:  https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/ebv/en/?locale=en-ca&prov=ns


The four Halifax-area seats range in population from +12% to +19% above the provincial quota.

The other four seats range from -15% to +8%.

There is a new 'post-industrial' seat in Cape Breton called Sydney--Glace Bay.

While the rural/built up split of Cape Breton arguable makes more sense as a seat then the current arrange - that surely has the effect of giving the region a partisan sorting. NDP might be competitive in the built up seat, Cons have to like the rural one.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the partisan breakdowns of the new ridings:



Not much change except the new Sydney riding is no longer a marginal seat.

[adma]

Of course, the Dartmouth notionality's asterisked by the Con candidate pulling out in '21.

[Krago]

The Prince Edward Island Commission has released its report.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/pei/rprt/index_e.aspx

Here's the map.  I don't know why it can't show multiple layers (Current and Report) at the same time.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/ebv/en/?locale=en-ca&prov=pe

[Hatman 🍁]

The Prince Edward Island Commission has released its report.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/pei/rprt/index_e.aspx

Here's the map.  I don't know why it can't show multiple layers (Current and Report) at the same time.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/ebv/en/?locale=en-ca&prov=pe

It can, actually, though it's designed awkwardly.

The only difference from the proposal is a small territory of less than 100 people in the Marshfield area was transferred from Malpeque to Charlottetown. The commission didn't mention this at all in their report, however this was done because the area had been annexed by the City of Charlottetown.

[mileslunn]

New Brunswick is now out https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/nb/rprt/nb-fin_e.pdf

[Oryxslayer]

New Brunswick is now out https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/nb/rprt/nb-fin_e.pdf

St. John remains cracked in 2.

[mileslunn]

Here is how each riding went

Acadie-Bathurst

2021

LPC 65%
CPC 14%
NDP 11%
PPC 6%
GPC 3%
OTH 1%

2019

LPC 55%
CPC 21%
NDP 14%
GPC 9%

Beausejour

2021

LPC 56%
CPC 19%
NDP 11%
PPC 8%
GPC 6%
OTH 1%

2019

LPC 46%
GPC 27%
CPC 18%
NDP 7%
PPC 2%

Fredericton-Oromocto

2021

LPC 38%
CPC 34%
NDP 13%
GPC 13%

2019

GPC 33%
LPC 29%
CPC 29%
NDP 6%
PPC 2%

Fundy-Royal

2021

CPC 47%
LPC 25%
NDP 15%
PPC 9%
GPC 5%

2019

CPC 44%
LPC 25%
GPC 16%
NDP 10%
PPC 3%

Madawaska-Restigouche

2021

LPC 52%
CPC 28%
PPC 8%
NDP 6%
GPC 3%

2019

LPC 50%
CPC 30%
GPC 14%
NDP 6%

Miramichi-Grand Lake

2021

CPC 46%
LPC 37%
NDP 8%
PPC 5%
GPC 5%

2019

CPC 37%
LPC 34%
GPC 13%
NDP 8%
PPC 3%

Moncton-Dieppe

2021

LPC 50%
CPC 22%
NDP 17%
PPC 6%
GPC 4%

2019

LPC 44%
CPC 23%
GPC 18%
NDP 12%
PPC 2%

Saint John- St. Croix

2021

CPC 47%
LPC 28%
NDP 13%
PPC  8%
GPC 4%

2019

CPC 47%
LPC 27%
GPC 13%
NDP 9%
PPC 3%

Saint John-Kennebecasis

2021

LPC 43%
CPC 36%
NDP 13%
PPC 5%
GPC 3%

2019

CPC 37%
LPC 36%
NDP 12%
GPC 10%
PPC 2%
OTH 3%

Tobique-Mactaquac

2021

CPC 53%
LPC 22%
NDP 11%
PPC  7%
GPC 5%

2019

CPC 52%
LPC 22%
GPC 15%
NDP 8%
PPC 3%

So in 2021 same results but in 2019, Conservatives would have won 5 seats (gaining Miramichi-Grand Lake and Saint John-Kennebacasis) while Liberals only 4 seats, Greens 1 seat.  Off course possible Tories would have held Saint John-Kennebacasis in 2021 if gained in 2019 as Wayne Long somewhat a maverick so got a fair number of personal votes.  By same token, Liberals only had a 4 point lead in 2019, while 8 point in 2021 (largely thanks to collapse of Greens helping Liberals while rise of PPC hurting Tories).  Much like 2018 provincial, Tories can lose popular vote in New Brunswick and win more seats as their vote more efficient unlike in most provinces or nationally.

[mileslunn]

New Brunswick is now out https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/nb/rprt/nb-fin_e.pdf

St. John remains cracked in 2.

Most of it is in Saint John-Kennebacasis.  Small portion in Saint John-St. Croix, but latter riding largely rural while former mostly urban.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Brunswick is now out https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/nb/rprt/nb-fin_e.pdf

St. John remains cracked in 2.

Most of it is in Saint John-Kennebacasis.  Small portion in Saint John-St. Croix, but latter riding largely rural while former mostly urban.

Sure, "most" of Saint John is in the Kennebacasis riding, but I would not call the remainder a "small portion". Over a quarter of the city lives in the Saint John-St. Croix riding now.

[Krago]

New Brunswick is now out https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/nb/rprt/nb-fin_e.pdf

This is one of the most thorough boundary reports I've ever read.  It goes into incredible detail about why they made their decisions, and mentions (and rejects) alternative options (including mine).

Here is my favourite paragraph:  "Effective representation can be achieved by various configurations. The Commission's proposal for most ridings was generally well accepted except for these provincial changes. In such circumstances, unless an option proposed by others represented an obvious improvement over the Proposal, substantially changing the redistribution plan suggested in the Proposal, which formed the basis of extensive public consultation and input, could undermine confidence in the electoral boundaries readjustment process. The Commission is of the view that this would be contrary to the spirit and intent of the Act. Public consultation and feedback are integral and essential to the process, and the Act does not provide for a second round of public consultation."

In other words, the Commission decided to split Saint John and any attempt to stick it back together would be illegal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Krago, were you the one that submitted the national map to them?

I'm assuming the "Fredericton resident" that submitted a NB-wide proposal was JP (the 506).

[mileslunn]

Also Riverview now entirely in Fundy-Royal which makes sense.  Riverview being suburban is more competitive than most of Fundy-Royal, but far better for Conservatives than either Moncton or Dieppe are when Tories tend to lose badly.  True Moncton occasionally goes Tory, but more so at provincial than federal level and federally only in 2011 when very strong splits.  Dieppe always goes Liberal.

[Krago]

This is definitely worth your time:

The Writ Podcast - Ep. #71: Canada's changing electoral map

[Krago]

Krago, were you the one that submitted the national map to them?

Always the bridesmaid...


Here are the ideal federal boundaries for Niagara Region.

[lilTommy]

Krago, were you the one that submitted the national map to them?

Always the bridesmaid...


Here are the ideal federal boundaries for Niagara Region.

you mean "how to divide a city of under 20K into 4 ridings" region? LOL

[Njall]

Saskatchewan and Manitoba are out.

Saskatchewan: https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/sk/rprt/index_e.aspx.

Manitoba: https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/mb/rprt/index_e.aspx.

Amongst the changes made from the proposal is removing the recommendation for an NDP-friendly seat in Saskatoon Centre.

[MB11]

Well the new northern riding in Saskatchewan would have gone NDP in 2019 and Liberal in 2021 so that's a pickup for whoever best represents the voice of Saskatchewan's rural mining/hunting/fishing/non-farming communities. Nothing else changes compared to the current map I'd think; marginal Winnipeg West does become very slightly safer for the Conservatives however.

[lilTommy]

While I'm sad to see an NDP-made Saskatoon Centre gone, I am much happier to see 3 urban only seats in Saskatoon.
I think Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River is a more NDP leaning at this point but Candidate plays a big role; in 2021 the Liberals ran a provincial NDP MLA which I think explains why a huge chunk of NDP vote shifted (not enough to win). The NDP held the seat in 2015, and was within 3% of winning in 2011 (funny enough the NDP candidate in 2011 ran for the Liberals in 2015)

In Winnipeg: Elmwood-Transcona loses Winnipeg proper areas to St.Boniface-St.Vital and stretches into rural areas adding Springfield. The proposal had Lagmodiere blvd (hwy 59) as the boundary, its now the city limits and the tracks. This has to favour the Conservatives, but the NDP have posted +40% the last two elections, but the new boundary must make this at least a little more competitive. 

[DL]

FWIW, the new Sask map could make Regina-Lewvan a bit more winnable for the NDP as it shifts a chunk of NDP friendly inner city Regina from Regina-Qu-Appele (where it did no good) to Lewvan

[MB11]

While I'm sad to see an NDP-made Saskatoon Centre gone, I am much happier to see 3 urban only seats in Saskatoon.
I think Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River is a more NDP leaning at this point but Candidate plays a big role; in 2021 the Liberals ran a provincial NDP MLA which I think explains why a huge chunk of NDP vote shifted (not enough to win). The NDP held the seat in 2015, and was within 3% of winning in 2011 (funny enough the NDP candidate in 2011 ran for the Liberals in 2015)

In Winnipeg: Elmwood-Transcona loses Winnipeg proper areas to St.Boniface-St.Vital and stretches into rural areas adding Springfield. The proposal had Lagmodiere blvd (hwy 59) as the boundary, its now the city limits and the tracks. This has to favour the Conservatives, but the NDP have posted +40% the last two elections, but the new boundary must make this at least a little more competitive. 

The rural population of Elmwood-Transcona is like 10K at most so it probably won’t do much other than maybe evaporate the rural voice in that riding since it’s so small.

Also kinda surprised they didn’t seem to consider the Krago (or whoever drew the map for all of Canada) proposal to do 1 urban riding within Circle Drive and 2 suburban ridings completely within city boundaries, 1 on each side of the river.