Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

Quaest, August 11-14
Lula 45% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 33% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 6% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)
According to Quaest, Lula was stable during 2022. Bolsonaro increased at the expense of the other candidates. Here we can see the trend https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1559844455942963200

Poder Data, August 14-16
Lula 44% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)
Ciro Gomes 6% (-1)
Simone Tebet 4% (0)

Is there a useful average of all polling we can follow?

Here https://www.estadao.com.br/politica/eleicoes/agregador-pesquisa-eleitoral-2022/?cargo=presidencial&modalidade=todas&regiao=todas

[buritobr]

Yes, I was wrong. Ipec is showing Belo Horizonte voting slightly on the right of the state of Minas Gerais. However, in 2018, the difference is very small. In 2010, 2014, 2018, Belo Horizonte voted much more on the right than the state of Minas Gerais.
Probably, the countryside is a little bit on the left of the capital because of the low income north, which has the same votting pattern of the neighbor Bahia. The upper income southwest of Minas Gerais, close to São Paulo, votes much more on the right than Belo Horizonte.

[buritobr]

Datafolha, August 16-18th

1st round
Lula 47% (0)
Jair Bolsonaro 32% (+3)
Ciro Gomes 7% (-1)
Simone Tebet 2% (0)
Vera Lúcia 1% (0)

Blank/nullifed/none 6%
Doesn't know 2%

Runoff
Lula 54% (-1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)

[buritobr]

Datafolha August 16-18

São Paulo
Governor: Haddad 38%, Tarcísio 16%, Garcia 11%
President: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 31%

Rio de Janeiro
Governor: Castro 26%, Freixo 23%, Neves 5%
President: Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 35%

Minas Gerais
Governor: Zema 47%, Khalil 23%
President: Lula 49%, Bolsonaro 29%

[Red Velvet]

Some demographic curiosities about the new Datafolha poll…

Segments in which Lula (average of 47%) has his best performance on the 1st round vote:
- Homosexuals and Bisexuals (69%)
- Afro-Brazilians (60%)
- Northeast Region voters (57%)
- People who receive Auxílio Brasil* or who live with someone who does (56%)
- People with no Religion (56%)
- Lowest income group, of 2 minimum wages or less (55%)
- Less educated groups, who only finished Middle School (55%)

*Auxílio Brasil is a government income redistribution program for the ones who need the most. It was created by the Bolsonaro government, substituting the one from the Lula Era (was called Bolsa Família).

Bolsonaro (average of 32%) has his best performance with:
- Evangelical Protestants (49%)
- Higher Middle Class income group, of between 5 and 10 minimum wages (47%)
- Richest income group, of over 10 minimum wages (43%)
- North Region voters (43%)
- Midwest Region voters (42%)
- Lower Middle Class income group, of between 2 and 5 minimum wages (41%)
- South Region voters (39%)
- White Brazilians (38%)

I listed for Lula categories were he does at least 8% better than his average. For Bolsonaro at least 6% over than his average.

[Red Velvet]

Some % for the main candidates by the demographic group here. Just to remind that the average to be compared with is Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 32% and Ciro 7%

GENDER - You’re seeing a depolarizations between the male and female vote now. They’re not significantly different imo

MALE: Lula +11
Lula 46%
Bolsonaro 35%
Ciro 7%

FEMALE: Lula +18
Lula 47%
Bolsonaro 29%
Ciro 7%

INCOME - You actually see depolarization in the richest segment, where the election is basically tied. It’s between the higher middle class segments that Bolsonaro does his best. Which is a group that is pretty distant from benefiting from social programs of the government and could resent lower classes for it, but at the same time resent what they see as more “progressive richer elites”, being vulnerable to different kinds of populist rhetoric.

2 MINIMUM WAGES (MW) OR LESS: Lula +32
Lula 55%
Bolsonaro 23%
Ciro 7%

BETWEEN 2 MW AND 5 MW: Bolsonaro +3
Bolsonaro 41%
Lula 38%
Ciro 8%

BETWEEN 2 MW AND 5 MW: Bolsonaro +13
Bolsonaro 47%
Lula 34%
Ciro 7%

OVER 10 MW: Bolsonaro +3
Bolsonaro 43%
Lula 40%
Ciro 6%

RELIGION - Giant polarization between Evangelicals and everyone else.

CATHOLICS: Lula +25
Lula 52%
Bolsonaro 27%
Ciro 8%

EVANGELICALS: Bolsonaro +17
Bolsonaro 49%
Lula 32%
Ciro 6%

NO RELIGION: Lula +37
Lula 56%
Bolsonaro 19%
Ciro 9%

OTHER RELIGIONS: Lula +10
Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 33%
Ciro 6%

REGION OF THE COUNTRY: Lula wins in the more populated regions that go alongside the coast while Bolsonaro wins in the lesser populated Inland regions of the country.

SOUTHEAST: Lula +12
Lula 44%
Bolsonaro 32%
Ciro 8%

NORTHEAST: Lula +33
Lula 57%
Bolsonaro 24%
Ciro 8%

SOUTH: Lula +4
Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 39%
Ciro 7%

NORTH: Bolsonaro +2
Bolsonaro 43%
Lula 41%
Ciro 6%

MIDWEST: Bolsonaro +6
Bolsonaro 42%
Lula 36%
Ciro 7%

METROPOLITAN REGION OF THE STATE (CAPITAL) VS INTERIOR CITIES - As I pointed before, it basically depends of the region. In the North/Northeast generally the left will do better in the interior, while in most of the South/Southeast (where the heavily populated SP and RJ axis has significant weight) you can already notice a pattern of the left doing better in the capitals. In the end, things are balanced out.

METRO AREAS: Lula +13
Lula 45%
Bolsonaro 32%
Ciro 8%

INTERIOR: Lula +16
Lula 48%
Bolsonaro 32%
Ciro 7%

AGE - Not a polarized demographic, but generally, the younger tend to prefer Lula over Bolsonaro more.

AGE 16-24: Lula +23
Lula 51%
Bolsonaro 28%
Ciro 8%

AGE 25-34: Lula +18
Lula 49%
Bolsonaro 31%
Ciro 8%

AGE 35-44: Lula +12
Lula 46%
Bolsonaro 34%
Ciro 8%

AGE 45-59: Lula +11
Lula 45%
Bolsonaro 34%
Ciro 6%

AGE 60+: Lula +11
Lula 44%
Bolsonaro 33%
Ciro 7%
Tebet 5% (Special mention cause it’s the only category she reaches so high!)

EDUCATION: Lesser education segments prefer Lula while Bolsonaro does better with people who have an university diploma but he still loses to Lula there too!

MIDDLE SCHOOL OR LESS: Lula +28
Lula 55%
Bolsonaro 27%
Ciro 5%

FINISHED HIGH SCHOOL: Lula +10
Lula 44%
Bolsonaro 34%
Ciro 7%

FINISHED COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY: Lula +4
Lula 40%
Bolsonaro 36%
Ciro 11% (Ciro’s only double digit main category!)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Interesting that Ciro's support seems to vary by education but not at all by income.

[CumbrianLefty]

Quaest, August 11-14
Lula 45% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 33% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 6% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)
According to Quaest, Lula was stable during 2022. Bolsonaro increased at the expense of the other candidates. Here we can see the trend https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1559844455942963200

Poder Data, August 14-16
Lula 44% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)
Ciro Gomes 6% (-1)
Simone Tebet 4% (0)

Is there a useful average of all polling we can follow?

Here https://www.estadao.com.br/politica/eleicoes/agregador-pesquisa-eleitoral-2022/?cargo=presidencial&modalidade=todas&regiao=todas

Thank you very much for this, Lula's support really is incredibly stable isn't it?

Unless that changes for some reason, its hard to see him not winning.

[Mike88]

Quaest, August 11-14
Lula 45% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 33% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 6% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)
According to Quaest, Lula was stable during 2022. Bolsonaro increased at the expense of the other candidates. Here we can see the trend https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1559844455942963200

Poder Data, August 14-16
Lula 44% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)
Ciro Gomes 6% (-1)
Simone Tebet 4% (0)

Is there a useful average of all polling we can follow?

Here https://www.estadao.com.br/politica/eleicoes/agregador-pesquisa-eleitoral-2022/?cargo=presidencial&modalidade=todas&regiao=todas

Thank you very much for this, Lula's support really is incredibly stable isn't it?

Unless that changes for some reason, its hard to see him not winning.

The main doubt seems to be more by what margin Lula wins, rather than who will actually win. The current trend suggests that Bolsonaro is slowly closing the gap and could force a second round, but, by then it's basically game over for Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

Quaest, August 11-14
Lula 45% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 33% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 6% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)
According to Quaest, Lula was stable during 2022. Bolsonaro increased at the expense of the other candidates. Here we can see the trend https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1559844455942963200

Poder Data, August 14-16
Lula 44% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)
Ciro Gomes 6% (-1)
Simone Tebet 4% (0)

Is there a useful average of all polling we can follow?

Here https://www.estadao.com.br/politica/eleicoes/agregador-pesquisa-eleitoral-2022/?cargo=presidencial&modalidade=todas&regiao=todas

Thank you very much for this, Lula's support really is incredibly stable isn't it?

Unless that changes for some reason, its hard to see him not winning.

Lula is stable and Bolsonaro is growing by gaining support from former third party voters and former undecided voters. He still could not take votes from Lula. The former president is still the favorite to win, but one can not say that it's already decided.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro small but steady growth is him gradually regaining some of his 2018 voters that drifted away from him during the pandemic because of his response but as election approaches and gets evidenced it’s completely polarized between an “either this or that”, they go towards Bolsonaro as an anti-PT response.

The economic big spending populism Bolsonaro is betting on recently is a strategy to diminish Lula’s lead among the poorest and that apparently had little to no effect. Lula % of the vote is extremely consistent and most of his voters aren’t changing. This is a very unique election in the sense everyone has been discussing or hearing about at least to some level, so people have made up their minds already. The changes will be predictably small so even if Bolsonaro keeps growing like 1%-2% every poll until the election, it won’t be enough to change things in terms of the end result.

Something quite drastic would need to change people’s mentality and the government is betting that the Auxílio Brasil 2nd payment in September will do that. And other unpredictable stuff cannot be counted out, no expected the Bolsonaro stabbing in 2018 and how it helped to get him sympathy and popularity while also being a perfect excuse to not go to debates or participate front and center in the political discussion.

But like, Datafolha says that between both Lula and Bolsonaro voters, more than 80% are confident of their vote and say they will not change it. The way things are NOW, I can’t see drastic shifts from poll to poll.

[Red Velvet]

Datafolha also points out that people who consider that a dictatorship can be the best system reached an all time low since the question started being asked in 1989, just after the redemocratization period:

Overall answers:

Democracy is always the best system - 75%
Doesn’t matter whether it’s a democracy or a dictatorship - 12%
In certain circumstances, a dictatorship is the best system - 7%

Historical divide between the democracy and dictatorship supporters alongside the years, during presidential election years:

1989 - Democracy 43% vs Dictatorship 18%
1994 - Democracy 54% vs Dictatorship 13%
2000 - Democracy 47% vs Dictatorship 18%
2003 - Democracy 59% vs Dictatorship 13%
2008 - Democracy 61% vs Dictatorship 11%
2014 - Democracy 62% vs Dictatorship 14%
2018 - Democracy 57% vs Dictatorship 15%
2021 - Democracy 70% vs Dictatorship 9%
2022 - Democracy 75% vs Dictatorship 7%

[buritobr]

After walking outside the presidential palace in Brasília, Bolsonaro heard some insults from a young youtuber. The boy said that the president was "tchutchuca do centrão". Bolsonaro tried to punch the boy.
International journalists had a hard time to translate "tchutchuca do centrão". "Centrão" is the name of the bloc in the Congress which belongs to the supporting base of every government, since they receive money. Despite the name, many representatives who are members of the "centrão" are much more to the right than to the center.
"Tchutchuca" is a word created in funk parties in Rio de Janeiro and means girls who hang out easily with men.
So, the youtuber wanted to say that Bolsonaro is under control of this group in the Congress which supports every government in exchange of funds.

Some translations for "tchutchuca do centrão"
Le Figaro (France): Putain do Centrao
La Nación (Argentina): Perrita del Centrao
RND (Germany): Liebling politischer Hinterwäldler bezeichnete

https://www.poder360.com.br/governo/imprensa-internacional-traduz-tchutchuca-do-centrao-leia/

[buritobr]

Ipec polls in this week

Some states

Amapá
Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 39%, Ciro Gomes 8%
valid vote 2018: Bolsonaro 41%, Haddad 33%, Ciro Gomes 12%

Tocantins
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 39%, Ciro Gomes 4%
valid vote 2018: Bolsonaro 45%, Haddad 41%, Ciro Gomes 7%

Maranhão
Lula 66%, Bolsonaro 18%, Ciro Gomes 5%
valid vote 2018: Haddad 61%, Bolsonaro 24%, Ciro Gomes 8%

Santa Catarina
Bolsonaro 50%, Lula 25%, Ciro Gomes 6%
valid vote 2018: Bolsonaro 66%, Haddad 15%, Ciro Gomes 7%

Paraná
Bolsonaro 41%, Lula 35%, Ciro Gomes 7%
valid vote 2018: Bolsonaro 57%, Haddad 20%, Ciro Gomes 8%

Piauí
Lula 69%, Bolsonaro 15%, Ciro Gomes 7%
valid vote 2018: Haddad 63%, Bolsonaro 19%, Ciro Gomes 11%

[buritobr]

There won't be important national polls this week. The next important national polls (Ipec, Datafolha) will be conducted next week, after the 40 minute interviews with the 4 biggest candidates in the most important evening news show which are taking place this week. We will see the impact of these interviews in the polls.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lula is only at ~70% with gays/bisexuals? Are the rest scattered or are some actually voting for Bolsonaro?

Anyway, this is the first election I can remember supporting the anti-American socialist.

[Red Velvet]

Lula is only at ~70% with gays/bisexuals? Are the rest scattered or are some actually voting for Bolsonaro?

Probably scattered around. I am gay and I really like Ciro Gomes for example.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s still probably around 10%-20% supporting Bolsonaro or so even among Homosexuals. Especially some upper or middle class ones.

Brazilian elections aren’t as demographically polarized as US elections, where divisions all fall very clearly between demographic grounds with over 90% of some groups (ex: African Americans) often backing the same option on an entire national level.

I mean, now it’s probably the most polarized it has ever been and we still don’t reach those margins nationally. I think the biggest one you would find is if you compared Interior cities of the South Region (ex: from Santa Catarina) with Interior cities of the Northeast Region (ex: from Piauí).

It’s still mindblowing to me how the regional divide between cities of the Interior area of the states can be so huge. Bolsonaro won in some cities of the interior of Santa Catarina with over 80% in 2018, but Haddad had an average of 70% in ALL the Northeast (reaching close or even above to 80% in the interior cities of the region as well)

This time I am suspecting Lula could maybe reach 90% in some interior cities from the Northeast. While Bolsonaro margin in the some of the interior of Santa Catarina falls to a little below to around the 70%-80%, which would still be really high!

It’s so interesting to me how the interior is what defines what we understand as the “stereotypes” of each region. Because the vote from the capitals is mostly moderate even if they still follow the overall regional “rules” (in the South capitals not as Pro-Bolsonaro as their interior and in the Northeast the capitals not as Pro-Lula as their interior).

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Lula is only at ~70% with gays/bisexuals? Are the rest scattered or are some actually voting for Bolsonaro?

Probably scattered around. I am gay and I really like Ciro Gomes for example.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s still probably around 10%-20% supporting Bolsonaro or so even among Homosexuals. Especially some upper or middle class ones.

Brazilian elections aren’t as demographically polarized as US elections, where divisions all fall very clearly between demographic grounds with over 90% of some groups (ex: African Americans) often backing the same option on an entire national level.

I mean, now it’s probably the most polarized it has ever been and we still don’t reach those margins nationally. I think the biggest one you would find is if you compared Interior cities of the South Region (ex: from Santa Catarina) with Interior cities of the Northeast Region (ex: from Piauí).

It’s still mindblowing to me how the regional divide between cities of the Interior area of the states can be so huge. Bolsonaro won in some cities of the interior of Santa Catarina with over 80% in 2018, but Haddad had an average of 70% in ALL the Northeast (reaching close or even above to 80% in the interior cities of the region as well)

This time I am suspecting Lula could maybe reach 90% in some interior cities from the Northeast. While Bolsonaro margin in the some of the interior of Santa Catarina falls to a little below to around the 70%-80%, which would still be really high!

It’s so interesting to me how the interior is what defines what we understand as the “stereotypes” of each region. Because the vote from the capitals is mostly moderate even if they still follow the overall regional “rules” (in the South capitals not as Pro-Bolsonaro as their interior and in the Northeast the capitals not as Pro-Lula as their interior).

With Brazil being heavily Catholic, social issues are less relevant in our politics than economics, thus allowing leftists to sweep the rural northeast

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Keep in mind that, besides black people as you mentioned, the most extremely polarized voting blocs in the US (eg LGBTQ people, white evangelicals) are still only about 70-80% for one side or the other.

[buritobr]

In every place of the world, there is a minority share of the minorities who vote for the right, even if the right-wing candidate and his supporting base has some hostile speeches. Some members of minorities don't consider the fact that they belong to a minority an important issue of their lives.
In Brazil, the share of people who are self-declared gays is bigger in the upper class than in the low class. Even many gays in the upper class are left-wing, since the leftist parties had supported LGBT issues more time ago. But not all of them think like that. Some upper class gays hate the left like other upper class people do.
The former governor of Rio Grande do Sul Eduardo Leite is gay and he endorsed Bolsonaro in the runoff in 2018.

[buritobr]

Lula did very well today in the interview at Globo TV evening news show. The interviews of the candidates had very high audience: ~1/3 of the TV sets in Brazil. He answered very well questions about corruption, economy, coalitions, foreign policy.
Bolsonaro was not bad on Monday: he probably didn't win any vote, but he didn't loose any vote too. Ciro Gomes yesterday and Lula today did much better.
But, probably, these interviews will not change the polls. A large majority of the voters are certain about the candidate they will vote for president.

[Хahar 🤔]

The former governor of Rio Grande do Sul Eduardo Leite is gay and he endorsed Bolsonaro in the runoff in 2018.

With a name like that, one would think that he would be the former governor of Minas Gerais.

[buritobr]

Other Ipec polls in the states

Amazonas
Lula 48%, Jair Bolsonaro 35%, Ciro Gomes 6%
Manaus: Jair Bolsonaro 41%, Lula 37%, Ciro Gomes 7%
countryside: Lula 65%, Jair Bolsonaro 24%, Ciro Gomes 5%
Amazonas in 2018: Jair Bolsonaro 43%, Fernando Haddad 40%, Ciro Gomes 8%
While in the South and in the Southeast many capitals will vote on the left of their states, in Amazonas, the capital votes much on the right of the jungle

Goiás
Jair Bolsonaro 39%, Lula 34%, Ciro Gomes 9%
in 2018: Jair Bolsonaro 57%, Fernando Haddad 22%, Ciro Gomes 9%

Sergipe
Lula 54%, Jair Bolsonaro 26%, Ciro Gomes 6%
in 2018: Fernando Haddad 50%, Jair Bolsonaro 27%, Ciro Gomes 13%

Bahia
Lula 61%, Jair Bolsonaro 20%, Ciro Gomes 7%
in 2018: Fernando Haddad 60%, Jair Bolsonaro 23%, Ciro Gomes 9%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

The former governor of Rio Grande do Sul Eduardo Leite is gay and he endorsed Bolsonaro in the runoff in 2018.

With a name like that, one would think that he would be the former governor of Minas Gerais.

The former governor of Minas Gerais is Aécio Neves, who is from the same party as Eduardo Leite, the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), a center-right party (but which was born as a center-left party in 1988). He ran for president of Brazil in 2014 against incumbent Dilma Rousseff of Worker's Party (PT), Brazil's main left-wing and center-left party.

He lost the presidency by a very narrow margin (Dilma had 51,64% and Aécio 48,36% of the votes in the 2nd round) and he complained of fraud because he was initially leading the vote count (like Trump in 2020), but after an investigation he accepted the result.

Involved in many personal corruption scandals such as Operation Car Wash, he and his party became extremely unpopular nationally, which gave way to the far-right candidacy of Jair Bolsonaro 4 years later.

[Mike88]

Tomorrow, the first debate between the main candidates will be broadcast by Rede Bandeirantes. I believe that there could be a live feed on their Youtube channel, Band Jornalismo.