Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[CumbrianLefty]

The right hate the PT primarily because it stops them being in power more.

Not much more to it than that I think.

[CumbrianLefty]

Let's not forget that the last POTUS election was close - would even Trump have contested his defeat if he had been stomped in the same fashion that the polls currently indicate for Bolsonaro?

[CumbrianLefty]

Quaest, August 11-14
Lula 45% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 33% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 6% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)
According to Quaest, Lula was stable during 2022. Bolsonaro increased at the expense of the other candidates. Here we can see the trend https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1559844455942963200

Poder Data, August 14-16
Lula 44% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)
Ciro Gomes 6% (-1)
Simone Tebet 4% (0)

Is there a useful average of all polling we can follow?

[CumbrianLefty]

Quaest, August 11-14
Lula 45% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 33% (+1)
Ciro Gomes 6% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)
According to Quaest, Lula was stable during 2022. Bolsonaro increased at the expense of the other candidates. Here we can see the trend https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1559844455942963200

Poder Data, August 14-16
Lula 44% (+1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)
Ciro Gomes 6% (-1)
Simone Tebet 4% (0)

Is there a useful average of all polling we can follow?

Here https://www.estadao.com.br/politica/eleicoes/agregador-pesquisa-eleitoral-2022/?cargo=presidencial&modalidade=todas&regiao=todas

Thank you very much for this, Lula's support really is incredibly stable isn't it?

Unless that changes for some reason, its hard to see him not winning.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why has Brazil become so right wing overall? Is it really all down to evangelicals??

[CumbrianLefty]

Looking at the polling trendlines, Lula ended up exactly as expected, while Bolsonaro overperformed by around 7 points. So it seems like he swept the undecideds and got the votes of a few people who said they'd vote third party (Gomes underperformed by 2 points and Tebet by 1). Perhaps because of a social desirability bias against telling pollsters you support Bolsonaro? Brazilian posters let me know if that's a thing.

The final polling average had Lula at 45%. Bolsonaro at 37%. Tebet and Gomez both at 5%. Rest of the parties got 2%. Undecided at 6%

The results were Lula at 48%, Bolso at 45%, Tibet at 4% and Gomez at 3%. The rest of the parties were 2%

Looks like Bolso sweep the undecided vote. Perhaps Brazil also suffers from the “Tory Effect” where voters are wary of telling pollsters they are voting conservative.

The last 2 polls had Lula rising from Gomez voters switching which did happen.

I expect Lula to win 52-55% in round 2. He’ll get the Gomez vote and maybe another point from Tibet. I’m not an expert on Brazil politics so I can’t speak on the 2% between the minor parties

Which hasn't actually been a thing in the UK since the 1990s. But whatever.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but *why* is it so right wing?

[CumbrianLefty]

Not really a surprise, sadly. Maybe the polls weren't actually "wrong" at all?

[CumbrianLefty]

*From a British perspective it reminds me a little of people from families that have been solidly upper middle class for multiple generations liking to be able to point to a branch of the family a bit further back that wasn't. Very different social phenomena and dynamics, yes, but there are some psychological similarities at work

Hence "my *grandad* was the son of a miner" in a recent Labour selection contest

[CumbrianLefty]

Social democracy seems to be becoming a thing of the past.

A comment that maybe had more force 10-15 years ago.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, the "Prosperity Gospel" is truly one of the most repellent things ever devised.

[CumbrianLefty]

The truck already arived to take Bolsonaro's personal objetcts from the Palácio da Alvorada

You do, indeed, love to see it

[CumbrianLefty]

Since another person will live in the Palácio da Alvorada in January 1st 2023, the truck collected Bolsonaro's personal objects. Some of these objects are works produced by artists who support Bolsonaro. Here we can see some of these art works[snip]

I see Bolsonaro only has the best art taste.

He and Trump really are peas in a pod in so many ways.