Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[RicardoCampos]

the G1 has a calculation map of the whole of Brazil by municipality

[skbl17]

the G1 has a calculation map of the whole of Brazil by municipality

Yep: https://especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2022/mapas/mapa-da-apuracao-no-brasil-presidente/2-turno/

[Mike88]

the G1 has a calculation map of the whole of Brazil by municipality

Very good map: https://especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2022/mapas/mapa-da-apuracao-no-brasil-presidente/2-turno/

Surprised to see that Barcelos in Brazil is leftwing, but in Portugal it's rightwing.

[President Johnson]

Bolsonaro takes the lead 52.6 to 47.4 with .3% in

STOP THE COUNT!

[icc]

Distrito Federal (51.7%-36.9% to Bolsonaro in the first round) is currently 59.9%-40.1% with 19.5% in.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Bolsonaro: 971,835 (56.51%)
Lula: 747,796 (43.49%)
1.37% REPORTING

A few minutes ago it went from 0.44 to 0.55 to 0.66. Someone on the Ballsonaro Coup Team has OCD. Anyway, a full percent is in now.

[jaichind]

Distrito Federal (51.7%-36.9% to Bolsonaro in the first round) is currently 59.9%-40.1% with 19.5% in.

I recall that during the count in the first round in DF it continued to shift away from Bolsonaro as more vote came in here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Brazilian Public Security Forum considers 'very serious action by the PRF'

The Brazilian Public Security Forum released a note to ask for a "fast and enlightening" investigation of what it considered to be "a very serious action by the Federal Highway Police, which carried out more than 560 inspection operations on this election Sunday and harmed thousands of people" in the country.

The entity emphasizes that the PRF "is not a government body, which can be manipulated and used at the whim of electoral interests, but a State body, which represents all Brazilians".
Half of PRF's operations were in the Northeast

Throughout the morning and until early afternoon, the PRF failed to comply with an order from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and carried out this Sunday (30), the day of the second round of voting, at least 560 inspection operations against vehicles making public transport for voters. .

The number of manifestations is included in the PRF's internal control. According to details obtained by TV Globo , the first 549 operations registered were distributed as follows throughout the country:

272 operations in the Northeast (49.5% of the total);
122 non-Center-West (22.22%);
59 non-North (10.7%);
48 in the Southeast (8.74%), and
48 in the South (8.74%).

[Comrade Funk]

Traffic police as a means of attempted vote-suppression is... a new one.

Florida police did that in 2000

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Bolsonaro: 1,759,974 (55.82%)
Lula: 1,392,784 (44.18%)
2.56% REPORTING

2.5% in now.

Traffic police as a means of attempted vote-suppression is... a new one.

Florida police did that in 2000

And we know how that turned out

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro starting with 56,4% is in that uncertain area burito mentioned. Who knows what the hell is happening as the vote gets counted!

1st round the count began with Bolsonaro 48% Lula 41%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Distrito Federal (51.7%-36.9% to Bolsonaro in the first round) is currently 59.9%-40.1% with 19.5% in.

I recall that during the count in the first round in DF it continued to shift away from Bolsonaro as more vote came in here.

If we were to crudely extrapolate this to nationwide level, this would result in a 51-49 or 52-48 Lula victory. Probably not a good sign for Bolsonaro here.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

I know is still too early but is Bolsonaro overperforming?

[Sestak]

So per the benchmark earlier we said it would be a tied-ish race if Bolsonaro was at 56 with 4.5% in. We're at 4.4% and he's not even at 54.

Lula looking in the drivers seat at the moment.

[KaiserDave]

I know is still too early but is Bolsonaro overperforming?

Not as of yet no, if anything he's doing poorly.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Bolsonaro: 3,125,350 (53.57%)
Lula: 2,708,858 (46.43%)
4.82% REPORTING

We're coming up on our first benchmark and Lula is where he needs to be for something like 52-48.

[Eraserhead]

Probably going to be painfully close.

[icc]

Certainly looking good for Lula atm.

Crudely, he needs to overperform by 1.7% from the first round to win.

Currently, at 4.4% in, Lula is at 46.1%, in the first round at 4.5% in he was at 42.1%.
In Brasilia he was at 36.9% at the end of the count, he is at 40.9% there now with 3/4 of the vote in.

[KaiserDave]

Probably going to be painfully close.

No indication of that right now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bolsonaro is barely above 70% in Roraima and Acre.

[Hash]

Lula has got this, I think.

[RicardoCampos]

If it follows the pattern of the 1st round, Lula will win. The difference is already starting to drop.

[2952-0-0]

Imagine if there was a needle of doom like in the New York Times.

[Senator Incitatus]

Seems good for Lula so far.

[Duke of York]

Probably going to be painfully close.

no evidence that is going to be the case right now.