Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

New Datafolha poll:

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 49% (=)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 44% (-1)
Blank/null - 5% (+1)
Undecided - 2% (+1)

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 53% (+1)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 47% (-1)

50% of people wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro, 45% wouldn't vote for Lula.

The last gubernatorial debates will happen today, hosted by Globo. Tomorrow, they'll host the last presidential debate.

Lmao now all major polls have Lula 53% Bolsonaro 47%. IPEC probably still a bit off by 1% even after the post-1st round poll adjustment.

That’s around 55% of transfer vote for Lula and 45% transfer for Bolsonaro, as I said in my numbers analysis post. I guess it makes kinda sense tbh, if we expect Simone+Ciro to go around 60-70 to Lula but Bolsonaro still increases turnout by 2M (mostly favorable to him) from people wanting to stop PT or something.

Of the new 12M votes settling in, maybe…

5M that voted for TEBET - 3.5M for Lula, 1.5 for Bolsonaro
3.5M that voted for CIRO - 2M for Lula, 1.5 for Bolsonaro
1.5 that voted for OTHER candidates - 1.3 for Bolsonaro, 0.2 for Lula
2M that ABSTAINED or voted NULL on 1st round - 1.4 for Bolsonaro, 0.6 for Lula

Final result:

Lula 63,3M (52,75%)
Bolsonaro 56,7M (47,25%)

Yeah, I could see final result being 53%. Still probably a little bit less than that though. But maybe more Ciro vote than I’m predicting will go to Lula and make it cross 53%. Or maybe many of these votes will just be null this time and that helps Lula more.

[buritobr]

Most recent Atlas polls in some states

Bahia: Lula 71.2%, Bolsonaro 28.8%
Minas Gerais: Lula 51.7%, Bolsonaro 48.3%
Rio de Janeiro: Bolsonaro 54.8%, Lula 45.2%

[Mike88]

Portuguese newspaper Jornal de Notícias vote compass:

https://www.jn.pt/mundo/reportagens/qual-e-o-candidato-brasileiro-com-que-se-identifica-mais-15293352.html

It's kinda tricky. In some topics, the choices are very similar and also, well, reasonable.

[Pivaru]

Atlas São Paulo poll:

Gubernatorial:
Total votes:
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) - 51.7% (-1.5)
Fernando Haddad (PT) - 44.7% (+2.3)
Undecided/blank/null - 3,6% (-0.9)

Valid votes:
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) - 53.6% (-2)
Fernando Haddad (PT) - 46.4% (+2)

Presidential:
Total votes:
Bolsonaro (PL) - 51.1% (-0.8)
Lula (PT) - 46.6% (+1.9)
Undecided/blank/null - 2,3% (-1.2)

Valid votes:
Bolsonaro (PL) - 52.3% (-1.4)
Lula (PT) - 47.7% (+1.4)


Ipec São Paulo poll: (this one is actually from 2 days ago, but I don't think it was posted here)

Gubernatorial:
Total votes:
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) - 46% (=)
Fernando Haddad (PT) - 43% (+2)
Blank/null - 7% (-2)
Undecided - 4% (=)

Valid votes:
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) - 52% (-1)
Fernando Haddad (PT) - 48% (+1)

Presidential:
Total votes:
Bolsonaro (PL) - 47% (+2)
Lula (PT) - 44% (=)
Blank/null - 6% (-2)
Undecided - 3% (=)

Valid votes:
Bolsonaro (PL) - 52% (+1)
Lula (PT) - 48% (-1)

[Pivaru]

Ipec statewide polls

Rio Grande do Sul:
Gubernatorial
Total votes:
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) - 50% (=)
Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) - 40% (-1)
Blank/null - 5% (=)
Undecided - 5% (+2)

Valid votes:
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) - 56% (+1)
Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) - 44% (-1)

Presidential:
Total votes:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 50% (+1)
Lula (PT) - 42% (=)
Blank/null - 4% (-1)
Undecided - 4% (=)

Valid votes:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 54% (+1)
Lula (PT) - 46% (-1)


Alagoas:
Gubernatorial
Total votes:
Paulo Dantas (MDB) - 46% (-3)
Rodrigo Cunha (UNIÃO) - 42% (+2)
Blank/null - 6% (=)
Undecided - 6% (=)

Valid votes:
Paulo Dantas (MDB) - 52% (-3)
Rodrigo Cunha (UNIÃO) - 48% (+3)

[Red Velvet]

The final debate starts in around 45min

[DaleCooper]

The final debate starts in around 45min

How do you expect it to go?

[Red Velvet]

The final debate starts in around 45min

How do you expect it to go?

So far it’s horrible, they don’t speak the same language and don’t follow what the other brings up. It’s not a debate.

Everything Lula says, Bolsonaro says it’s a lie in order to cop-out and not respond. Everything Bolsonaro says Lula complains it’s nonsense (even if true, feels like a cop out for the viewer). Neither falls on the other trap but don’t say anything meaningful because of that.

If I were average person watching this I would think it’s two old guys trying to hit each other without me understanding any of what’s going on. Very “blocked” debate overall so far. Would be surprised if it caused any movements.

Lula is more sassy and condescending towards Bolsonaro this time which makes him shrug off Bolsonaro cheap attacks better, but maybe also will make him come across as arrogant. It’s hard to debate with someone who is just dumber and extremely one-note.

[DaleCooper]

The final debate starts in around 45min

How do you expect it to go?

So far it’s horrible, they don’t speak the same language and don’t follow what the other brings up. It’s not a debate.

Everything Lula says, Bolsonaro says it’s a lie in order to cop-out and not respond. Everything Bolsonaro says Lula complains it’s nonsense (even if true, feels like a cop out for the viewer). Neither falls on the other trap but don’t say anything meaningful because of that.

If I were average person watching this I would think it’s two old guys trying to hit each other without me understanding any of what’s going on. Very “blocked” debate overall so far. Would be surprised if it caused any movements.

Lula is more sassy and condescending towards Bolsonaro this time which makes him shrug off Bolsonaro cheap attacks better, but maybe also will make him come across as arrogant. It’s hard to debate with someone who is just dumber and extremely one-note.

Thanks.

It's disappointing and bad for the country, but I suppose if it's not causing any movements then that will be viewed as a victory by Lula and his campaign.

[Red Velvet]

The final debate starts in around 45min

How do you expect it to go?

So far it’s horrible, they don’t speak the same language and don’t follow what the other brings up. It’s not a debate.

Everything Lula says, Bolsonaro says it’s a lie in order to cop-out and not respond. Everything Bolsonaro says Lula complains it’s nonsense (even if true, feels like a cop out for the viewer). Neither falls on the other trap but don’t say anything meaningful because of that.

If I were average person watching this I would think it’s two old guys trying to hit each other without me understanding any of what’s going on. Very “blocked” debate overall so far. Would be surprised if it caused any movements.

Lula is more sassy and condescending towards Bolsonaro this time which makes him shrug off Bolsonaro cheap attacks better, but maybe also will make him come across as arrogant. It’s hard to debate with someone who is just dumber and extremely one-note.

Thanks.

It's disappointing and bad for the country, but I suppose if it's not causing any movements then that will be viewed as a victory by Lula and his campaign.

Bolsonaro is worse because he just repeats “you lie” to everything Lula says and feels weaker - probably an attempt of not trying to look aggressive to moderates on the eve of the election - and his attacks are mostly a repeat of stuff already used before.

Lula wins by default, some good moments here and there and has better attack delivery IMO (Bolsonaro often is READING from a paper he brought with him, which makes the attacks not sound as convincing due to the delivery), but also risks coming across as way too negative with his constant complaining of Bolsonaro sometimes which maybe could scary some undecided voters.

Personally, I think all debates this season were this performance show from the candidates, not really something informative at all.

[Red Velvet]

Great response from Lula to the myth of “jobs creation” from Bolsonaro. What kind of precarious underpaid jobs were that?

Best moment IMO, although it’s not hard. Lula’s opening of 1st block regarding the economy and also when he talked about guns were the most noteworthy moments of this debate imo.

[Red Velvet]

Congrats to Lula for focusing on economic topics btw. These themes definitely shaped this debate.

I also really liked that Lula tried talking about foreign relations at the 1st bloc tbh, it’s something that wasn’t talked about this entire campaign in any debate at all! Too bad the conversation didn’t gain any track because Bolsonaro had nothing to say other than Lula was lying when he said the president is alone and isolated in the world stage.

They are currently debating the Environment now. I think the debate is better and less blocked than in the 1st half now.

[Pivaru]

The debate just ended, thankfully Globo decided to hold it during a more reasonable time now. On the first round, their debate ended close to 02:00 AM

[buritobr]

According to the poll conducted by Atlas in the group of voters who didn't decide yet, Lula performed better in the debate


However, except in 1989, TV debates didn't have much impact on the vote. In 2014, polls showed that Aécio Neves performed better than Dilma Rousseff in the last debate. But Dilma had a narrow victory.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

According to the poll conducted by Atlas in the group of voters who didn't decide yet, Lula performed better in the debate


However, except in 1989, TV debates didn't have much impact on the vote. In 2014, polls showed that Aécio Neves performed better than Dilma Rousseff in the last debate. But Dilma had a narrow victory.

I mean does that actually mean it didn't shift things or it just didn't put Neves over the finish line?

[buritobr]

Polls didn't change after the last debate in 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014.
In 2014, polls where showing a narrow lead for Dilma Rousseff before the debate and she had a narrow victoy after that.

In 1989, the impact looked like bigger. In the first poll of the runoff, Collor had a 10 point margin against Lula. But Lula was able to close the gap during the runoff campaign. In the Datafolha poll on December 14th 1989, Collor had a 1 point margin. In the last debate, on that day, Lula didn't perform well. The runoff took place on December 17th. Collor won by a 6 point margin. But there were other factors: although Lula performed worse, in the evening news, Globo TV showed a summary of the debate, in which the best moments of Collor and the worst moments of Lula were selected. Globo was very anti-PT 3 decades ago.
In 2022, Globo is much more anti-Bolsonaro. Today, Globo anchor and moderator of the debate William Bonner was cricticized by Bolsonaro and he answered the criticism. It was the first time we saw a moderator debating against a candidate.

[Red Velvet]

In retrospect, Lula was actually quite good even if he suffered from a blocked debate. Even the complaining about Bolsonaro stuff may have been a strategy to imprint the idea on viewers that Bolsonaro isn’t as presidential as him. Let’s see if that works, I hope people don’t perceive him as arrogant because of that.

The Viagra moment was such a win for Lula lmao. Also very easy to meme, which is better to viralize on the web.

Lula: “You bought 35k boxes of viagra for the Armed Forces. Why did you buy them so much viagra?”

Bolsonaro: “Viagra is proved to also be an effective treatment for Prostate cancer”

Lula: “So why not buy it for entire population then so they can have this treatment? Only the Armed forces have Prostate cancer?”

Bolsonaro: “…”

[buritobr]

This is the map of the impact of the debate on the Twitter. In pink, we can see the pro-Lula influencers. In green, we can see the pro-Bolsonaro influencers. We can see that Lula's influencers had a much larger number of viewers

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1586334004487155712?t=_HKsDWEz5KCiC7D...

[Senator Incitatus]

In retrospect, Lula was actually quite good even if he suffered from a blocked debate. Even the complaining about Bolsonaro stuff may have been a strategy to imprint the idea on viewers that Bolsonaro isn’t as presidential as him. Let’s see if that works, I hope people don’t perceive him as arrogant because of that.

The Viagra moment was such a win for Lula lmao. Also very easy to meme, which is better to viralize on the web.

Lula: “You bought 35k boxes of viagra for the Armed Forces. Why did you buy them so much viagra?”

Bolsonaro: “Viagra is proved to also be an effective treatment for Prostate cancer”

Lula: “So why not buy it for entire population then so they can have this treatment? Only the Armed forces have Prostate cancer?”

Bolsonaro: “…”

I had thought Bolsonaro was the stupid candidate in this race until reading this.

[Red Velvet]

I will post every poll result of today in this post as they get released. Just warning because I will be editing this post alongside the day

Final polls released this Saturday:

Datafolha
Lula 52% (-1)
Bolsonaro 48% (+1)

IPEC
Lula 54% (=)
Bolsonaro 46% (=)

Atlas
Lula 53,4% (+0,2)
Bolsonaro 46,6% (-0,2)

Quaest
Lula 51,4% (-0,7)
Bolsonaro 48,6% (+0,7)

MDA
Lula 51,1% (-2,4)
Bolsonaro 48,9% (+2,4)

Paraná Pesquisas
Lula 50,4% (+0,2)
Bolsonaro 49,6% (-0,2)

[brucejoel99]

One would think USAmerican users would be more familiar with the concept of "mirages"

If I had a nickel for every time a revered elder statesman who had to make a political comeback in order to take down a fascist incumbent after a tragedy prevented them from running in the last election had to watch that fascist incumbent start out with a lead that's destined to shrink & disappear over time, I'd have 2 nickels, which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it's happened twice.

Relevant (now we get "will you shut up, man?" turned up to 100):

https://twitter.com/tomphillipsin/status/1586161603321696256

[buritobr]

MDA is biased to the right

In 2014: Aécio Neves 50.3, Dilma Rousseff 49.7
Actual result: Dilma Roussef 51.6, Aécio Neves 48.4

In 2018: Jair Bolsonaro 56.8, Fernando Haddad 43.2
Acutal result: Jair Bolsonaro 55.1, Fernando Haddad 44.9

[Mike88]

In the first round, the final MDA poll wasn't that off: 40% Bolsonaro, 48% Lula. But, even taking into account the 1.6-1.9% difference between their final runoff polls and the actual results, it gives 52.7% for Lula and 47.3% for Bolsonaro, which is basically what other polling companies are saying.

[buritobr]

Atlas last poll
Lula 53.4
Bolsonaro 46.6

Unlike Ipec and Datafolha, Atlas doesn't underestimate the right