Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Sestak]

God, Atlas somtoehow even worse than usual this evening. What's gotten into you all?

[Sestak]

The updates have been getting a little better for Lula; still think decently good chance he's above 48.

[Sestak]

Yeah Lula should easily break 48 at this point. May not even want to rule out 49 or better.

[Sestak]

Official website:

Eleição matematicamente definida (Segundo turno)

[Sestak]

For comparison, some benchmarks from the first round (lifted somewhat at random from this thread):

4.5% in: Bolsonaro 48.84%, Lula 42.07%
8.1% in: Bolsonaro 48.51%, Lula 42.64%
13.2% in: Bolsonaro 48.02%, Lula 43.24%
25.8% in: Bolsonaro 47.74%, Lula 43.49%
35.5% in: Bolsonaro 47.34%, Lula 43.86%
46.5% in: Bolsonaro 46.69%, Lula 44.47%
54.6% in: Bolsonaro 46.31%, Lula 44.87%
70.0% in: Lula 45.74%, Bolsonaro 45.51%

So this would give an equivalent benchmark of Bolsonaro 56 - Lula 44 at that 4.5%rpt mark for a tied race, then?

[Sestak]

So per the benchmark earlier we said it would be a tied-ish race if Bolsonaro was at 56 with 4.5% in. We're at 4.4% and he's not even at 54.

Lula looking in the drivers seat at the moment.

[Sestak]

Second posted benchmark was that Bolsonaro led by 5.9% with 8.1% in in the first round.


He's leading by 5.9% now with 6.6% in.

[Sestak]

Lula breaks 49.

Current "dumb trendline" would still point to 5-point win; though I agree somewhere closer to 3 is probably the likely outcome.

[Sestak]

Lula breaks 49.5.

[Sestak]

Lula +2 is a reasonable outcome at this point. "Virtually tied" is not.

[Sestak]

LULA LEADS, 50.01 - 49.99


CONGRATULATIONS TO THE PRESIDENT-ELECT!

[Sestak]

Lula's lead is over 1% and over 1M votes.

[Sestak]

What’s the difference between swing and trend?

The former is absolute difference, the latter is relative to the respective national results.