Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)
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  Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)  (Read 151601 times)
Pivaru
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« Reply #1550 on: October 30, 2022, 04:30:00 PM »
Another race called, Renato Casagrande (PSB) has been reelected governor of Espirito Santo, defeating Carlos Manato (PL), an ally of Jair Bolsonaro. Casagrande is in a bit of weird spot, Espirito Santo votes for Bolsonaro, but Casagrande's party supports PT, so during the whole campaign he just kinda ignored Lula. He underperformed by a lot during the first round, but he is a broadly popular governor, which was able to give him enough strenght to win now.

Casagrande has almost 54% of the vote now, Manato has 46%.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1551 on: October 30, 2022, 04:33:16 PM »
Bolsonaro: 32,797,424 (50.19%)
Lula: 32,545,266 (49.81%)
55.39% REPORTING

Within 300k votes now

Quote from: win win on October 30, 2022, 04:28:01 PM
espirto santo is 92% in
bolso won by a margin of 17
he won by a margin of 12 in round 1

so if all of brazil is like espirto santo (a major assumption), where bolso gains 5 on lula, the end result is virtually tied

The amount of copium here is immense
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1552 on: October 30, 2022, 04:33:21 PM »
Quote from: Neoliberal Edgelord on October 30, 2022, 04:29:45 PM
Bolsonaro: 30,179,145 (50.30%)
Lula: 29,821,727 (49.70%)
50.92% REPORTING

50% in.

not looking good for Lula or am I wrong?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1553 on: October 30, 2022, 04:33:38 PM »
Quote from: Duke of York on October 30, 2022, 04:33:21 PM
Quote from: Neoliberal Edgelord on October 30, 2022, 04:29:45 PM
Bolsonaro: 30,179,145 (50.30%)
Lula: 29,821,727 (49.70%)
50.92% REPORTING

50% in.

not looking good for Lula or am I wrong?

You are wrong.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1554 on: October 30, 2022, 04:34:24 PM »
Wrong; the urban areas report later. Like red mirage but disappears faster.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1555 on: October 30, 2022, 04:35:03 PM »
It looks like Lula probably has this, though not by very much. I was wrong, but I wasn't that wrong. I'll admit it.
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VPH
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« Reply #1556 on: October 30, 2022, 04:35:18 PM »
Why is Roraima so strong for Bolsonaro while all the states around it are more left-leaning?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1557 on: October 30, 2022, 04:35:52 PM »
Bolsonaro: 34,075,731 (50.15%)
Lula: 33,875,731 (49.85%)
57.57% REPORTING

Exactly 200k votes.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #1558 on: October 30, 2022, 04:36:31 PM »
Quote from: Silent Hunter on October 30, 2022, 04:34:24 PM
Wrong; the urban areas report later. Like red mirage but disappears faster.
Brazil is Virginia. Honestly, I'm shocked that rains in Northeast Brazil didn't depress Lula's turnout more and give Bolsonaro victory, but there we are.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1559 on: October 30, 2022, 04:36:33 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on October 30, 2022, 04:35:03 PM
It looks like Lula probably has this, though not by very much. I was wrong, but I wasn't that wrong. I'll admit it.

That's the greatest non-admission of wrongness I've ever heard, SnowLab Tongue
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win win
dxu8888
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« Reply #1560 on: October 30, 2022, 04:36:38 PM »
i have no horse in this race
I'm just saying this is a Lula +2 in the end most likely, no massive wipeout as the northeast is about 2/3rd in already
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #1561 on: October 30, 2022, 04:36:55 PM »
Quote from: Silent Hunter on October 30, 2022, 04:34:24 PM
Wrong; the urban areas report later. Like red mirage but disappears faster.

It looks like there's a lot of Bolsonaro areas that have yet to report.

I'll fully admit, I'm out of my element here and if I tried to zoom in and find specific results I wouldn't even know what I was looking for. Lula will obviously take the lead soon, but it would seem premature to assume a steady rate of growth throughout the night, wouldn't it?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #1562 on: October 30, 2022, 04:37:17 PM »
Quote from: VPH on October 30, 2022, 04:35:18 PM
Why is Roraima so strong for Bolsonaro while all the states around it are more left-leaning?
Iirc, a lot of Venezuelans ended up there, and that moved the state significantly to the right.
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Sestak
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« Reply #1563 on: October 30, 2022, 04:38:15 PM »
Lula +2 is a reasonable outcome at this point. "Virtually tied" is not.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1564 on: October 30, 2022, 04:38:33 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on October 30, 2022, 04:38:15 PM
Lula +2 is a reasonable outcome at this point. "Virtually tied" is not.

I wish it was a landslide but we can't have nice things anymore.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1565 on: October 30, 2022, 04:39:03 PM »
Bolsonaro: 36,148,921 (50.10%)
Lula: 36,008,584 (49.90%)
61.06% REPORTING

60% in
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1566 on: October 30, 2022, 04:39:26 PM »
Quote from: Neoliberal Edgelord on October 30, 2022, 04:39:03 PM
Bolsonaro: 36,148,921 (50.10%)
Lula: 36,008,584 (49.90%)
61.06% REPORTING

60% in

when will lead change happen at this rate?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1567 on: October 30, 2022, 04:41:07 PM »
Bolsonaro: 37,530,996 (50.08%)
Lula: 37,415,490 (49.92%)
63.39% REPORTING

Quote from: Duke of York on October 30, 2022, 04:39:26 PM
Quote from: Neoliberal Edgelord on October 30, 2022, 04:39:03 PM
Bolsonaro: 36,148,921 (50.10%)
Lula: 36,008,584 (49.90%)
61.06% REPORTING

60% in

when will lead change happen at this rate?

Assuming the current 0.02-0.05 drop probably about 67% in.
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omar04
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« Reply #1568 on: October 30, 2022, 04:41:18 PM »
Quote from: Duke of York on October 30, 2022, 04:39:26 PM
Quote from: Neoliberal Edgelord on October 30, 2022, 04:39:03 PM
Bolsonaro: 36,148,921 (50.10%)
Lula: 36,008,584 (49.90%)
61.06% REPORTING

60% in

when will lead change happen at this rate?

Probably within a few %. An model created a few days ago predicted Lula would over take at 88% with how the count went in the first round.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1569 on: October 30, 2022, 04:43:08 PM »
Quote from: Duke of York on October 30, 2022, 04:39:26 PM
Quote from: Neoliberal Edgelord on October 30, 2022, 04:39:03 PM
Bolsonaro: 36,148,921 (50.10%)
Lula: 36,008,584 (49.90%)
61.06% REPORTING

60% in

when will lead change happen at this rate?

A couple-to-a few mins.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1570 on: October 30, 2022, 04:44:48 PM »
aaaand Lula leads:
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Sestak
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« Reply #1571 on: October 30, 2022, 04:45:03 PM »
LULA LEADS, 50.01 - 49.99


CONGRATULATIONS TO THE PRESIDENT-ELECT!
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1572 on: October 30, 2022, 04:45:08 PM »
Lula: 40,084,172 (50.01%)
Bolsonaro: 40,075,683 (49.99%)
67.76% REPORTING

THERE WE HAVE IT HAHAHAHA DARK LULA RISING F@CK YOU BOLSONARO
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1573 on: October 30, 2022, 04:46:30 PM »
Quote from: Neoliberal Edgelord on October 30, 2022, 04:45:08 PM
Lula: 40,084,172 (50.01%)
Bolsonaro: 40,075,683 (49.99%)
67.76% REPORTING

THERE WE HAVE IT HAHAHAHA DARK LULA RISING F@CK YOU BOLSONARO

Hopefully this lead grows and he wins.  somehow Dark Lula returned.
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Pivaru
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« Reply #1574 on: October 30, 2022, 04:46:51 PM »
Lol I can hear fireworks from here where I live now that Lula overtook Bolsonaro
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