Los Angeles Mayor 2022: Bass vs Caruso

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I've never understood why the left rails so hard against Mitch. How is what happened at Echo Park Lake any different than Centennial Park in CD11 or the freeway underpasses in CD4?

And now the left is going to be okay with the members elevating CURREN PRICE to Council President? Yikes. Hopefully it ends up being Krekorian.

[coloradocowboi]

I've never understood why the left rails so hard against Mitch. How is what happened at Echo Park Lake any different than Centennial Park in CD11 or the freeway underpasses in CD4?

And now the left is going to be okay with the members elevating CURREN PRICE to Council President? Yikes. Hopefully it ends up being Krekorian.

“The left” is a figment of Fox News’ imagination. A lot of progressives in the city don’t like Mitch because he takes tons of developer cash and has not always been on the side of renters. Kinda like the rest of the city council with whom who voted unanimously for years?

Also the only leftist I’ve heard weigh in on this is Eunisses, and she said Krekorian or Marqueece. Nobody anywhere in any “leftist” forum I’ve seen in LA has proposed Curren Price? Imo it should be Marqueece, but then “the right” which in LA just means rich ppl and their chosen city councilmen like Koretz and Lee would block that

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I've never understood why the left rails so hard against Mitch. How is what happened at Echo Park Lake any different than Centennial Park in CD11 or the freeway underpasses in CD4?

And now the left is going to be okay with the members elevating CURREN PRICE to Council President? Yikes. Hopefully it ends up being Krekorian.

Who is "The Left"?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Clearly, the ideological right, left, and center of the City Council are skewed compared to everywhere else because Republicans barely exist here (i.e. the right is Buscaino and Lee; the left is Bonin, Raman, Hernandez, etc; the center is Krekorian, O'Farrell, Rodriguez, etc).

I'm not talking about what ideas are being fielded on twitter or in other online forums. I'm talking about who can actually make it to 8 votes this Tuesday when only 12 members vote. I'm hoping they can come to a consensus fast otherwise it could get brutal.

It seems to be a race between Price and Krekorian and I am worried about a blunder if Price gets it over Krekorian. If Price becomes Council President there will be hideous digital advertising billboards up on the sides of City Hall within days. (Only half kidding)...

Or, it would be fascinating - since Tuesday's meeting will be virtual - if Kevin and Gil try to show up and vote.

[Canis]

Clearly, the ideological right, left, and center of the City Council are skewed compared to everywhere else because Republicans barely exist here (i.e. the right is Buscaino and Lee; the left is Bonin, Raman, Hernandez, etc; the center is Krekorian, O'Farrell, Rodriguez, etc).

I'm not talking about what ideas are being fielded on twitter or in other online forums. I'm talking about who can actually make it to 8 votes this Tuesday when only 12 members vote. I'm hoping they can come to a consensus fast otherwise it could get brutal.

It seems to be a race between Price and Krekorian and I am worried about a blunder if Price gets it over Krekorian. If Price becomes Council President there will be hideous digital advertising billboards up on the sides of City Hall within days. (Only half kidding)...

Or, it would be fascinating - since Tuesday's meeting will be virtual - if Kevin and Gil try to show up and vote.

MHD would be a much better pick than price IMO and I don't see the current left councilmembers backing price I haven't heard anyone floating him either so I'm curious where you getting that frorm. not that it matters much anyway Los Angele's city council will likely be completely different in January. Hernandez will replace Cedillo Hugo will likely beat Mitch, Darling will probably (Hopefully) beat Park. heck if Sandoval pulls of the upset in 15 we might have the votes to make Nithya council president. Plus we have a chance at electing a progressive in CD 6 now that Nurys is out and theirs gonna be a special election hopefully KDL does the right thing too and resigns as well.

[coloradocowboi]

Clearly, the ideological right, left, and center of the City Council are skewed compared to everywhere else because Republicans barely exist here (i.e. the right is Buscaino and Lee; the left is Bonin, Raman, Hernandez, etc; the center is Krekorian, O'Farrell, Rodriguez, etc).

I'm not talking about what ideas are being fielded on twitter or in other online forums. I'm talking about who can actually make it to 8 votes this Tuesday when only 12 members vote. I'm hoping they can come to a consensus fast otherwise it could get brutal.

It seems to be a race between Price and Krekorian and I am worried about a blunder if Price gets it over Krekorian. If Price becomes Council President there will be hideous digital advertising billboards up on the sides of City Hall within days. (Only half kidding)...

Or, it would be fascinating - since Tuesday's meeting will be virtual - if Kevin and Gil try to show up and vote.

Where are you getting this information? I have not heard anything about Curren Price. Again, Eunisses Hernandez herself said she’d be fine with Koretz as a caretaker. Not that it would matter that much because they both suck.

I really don’t understand your issue with Curren Price tho. Sounds like some weird classist screeching about how he just doesn’t have the same “character” as the also bought and paid for Paul Koretz.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

You both need to think about this council with more agility. The battle lines are way more murky than the characterizations in this thread. Curren Price has literally stated publicly and privately he wants the job, and he is actively lobbying for the job both publicly and privately.

Has anyone seen The Reef at 1933 S. Broadway? You can literally see the digital billboards on it glowing at night driving on the 10 East all the way from La Brea. There are so many layers to the project that are offensive to the City and CD9, but the signage (which required legislative action by the council to be approved) is the most prominent.

The independent expenditure committees supporting Price's campaigns have always been heavily funded by the billboard and advertising industries. He has actively blocked/slowed proposed regulations limiting signage both in his district and citywide (the comprehensive signage ordinance update has been languishing for 15+ years). Signage regulations are a major issue citywide, particularly in less affluent districts where it creates visual blight, adversely affects nearby property values, and can promulgate messages/products that prey on low income/communities of color.

Koretz's fundamental problem is that he is incredibly unintelligent.

Krekorian is widely regarded as the most intelligent current member, although ideologically he is at the center of this council. He is term limited and would be a steady hand for the duration the council is in turmoil (which, sadly, could continue well after even the post-election membership shakeup in December).

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/chadloder/status/1582188116013563909

[coloradocowboi]

You both need to think about this council with more agility. The battle lines are way more murky than the characterizations in this thread. Curren Price has literally stated publicly and privately he wants the job, and he is actively lobbying for the job both publicly and privately.

Has anyone seen The Reef at 1933 S. Broadway? You can literally see the digital billboards on it glowing at night driving on the 10 East all the way from La Brea. There are so many layers to the project that are offensive to the City and CD9, but the signage (which required legislative action by the council to be approved) is the most prominent.

The independent expenditure committees supporting Price's campaigns have always been heavily funded by the billboard and advertising industries. He has actively blocked/slowed proposed regulations limiting signage both in his district and citywide (the comprehensive signage ordinance update has been languishing for 15+ years). Signage regulations are a major issue citywide, particularly in less affluent districts where it creates visual blight, adversely affects nearby property values, and can promulgate messages/products that prey on low income/communities of color.

Koretz's fundamental problem is that he is incredibly unintelligent.

Krekorian is widely regarded as the most intelligent current member, although ideologically he is at the center of this council. He is term limited and would be a steady hand for the duration the council is in turmoil (which, sadly, could continue well after even the post-election membership shakeup in December).

You’re telling me to “think with more agility” when I’m the one citing actual information and you’re citing what exactly?

I read the Politico article this morning and it’s the first I’ve heard about Price and btw I’ve been at city hall three times since this fiasco happened and live down the street.

Meanwhile these IEs that you are talking about are not only not “progressive” but also have spent time defending Price against opponents, including his most recent write in opponent, who are backed by progressives in the city? So again you’re blaming “the left” for an appointment he hasn’t even gotten yet when “the left” is the only political force in the city that has reliably opposed all of his campaigns. It makes no sense. Your actual beef is with the real estate lobbyists, and if so then I have really bad news about both Blumenfield and Krekorian.

I’m also gonna go out on a limb here and say that you are blaming your strawman “the left” because many people, including a large number of centrists, are backing Price merely because he’s black. The unfortunate reality is optics matter, specially to the centrists on the council who definitely won’t be changing their policy outlook anytime soon.

Again, Eunisses said she’d back Krekorian anyway, and I hear that’s also Nithya’s position. Maybe if we had more leftists on the council, we could get Marqueece - who would be better than any of the other options. Also again, I also like Krekorian the most of our three Bad options but he’s still a real estate pawn. We can and must do better

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I don't know what to tell you. Price literally said it at a town hall last week. And David Zahniser at the Times had Price on-the-record over a week ago saying he was going for the council presidency. I think he did have the votes until yesterday-ish, but clearly does not have the votes as of this morning.

The optics do matter, which is why I have been so concerned about the prospect of elevating Price to this position, who was implicated in one of the FBI investigations. But MRod's motion (Price supporter) to delay the vote by a week that did not get a second this morning was confirmation Price's bid has fizzled. 

Earlier in this thread, I defined which clumps of members I'm referring to when I say "the right" or "the center" or "the left." I am not saying "the left" in a nefarious way like Fox News.

I would be shocked if Marqueece ever goes for the council presidency. Fundamentally, he sees himself as a change agent, and I don't think he would ever want to be confined by the processes, rules, and politics that comes with being council president.

If Hugo and Darling both win, I think them (plus MHD, Nithya, and Eunisses) will force a vote for a new council president in December. Regardless, I don't think the other 10 offices will have any appetite to re-litigate this, and if Krekorian wins this morning, the job is his until he is termed out.

[coloradocowboi]

Okay, now I understand.

Here's where I see the post-election situation:

"the left": Nithya, Eunisses, Marqueece, Hugo*, Erin Darling*

the "center left": Krekorian, Yaroslavsky*, Hutt

the "center right:" Rodriguez, Price, Koretz

the "right": Blumenfield, Lee, Yebri*, Park*

w/ KDL/his replacement and Nury's replacement as wildcards. Nobody has an easy path to a majority tho

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I agree with that breakdown. I'm curious where McOsker will land as well. The races for CD5 and CD15 seem completely over. Katy should wipe the floor with Yebri.

Around a dozen callers left in the queue. We should be getting close to deliberations and votes (if they don't lose their bare quorum)...

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

After I was sweating like a dog for days and almost four hours of public comment this morning, Paul Krekorian was elected by a vote of 10-0 to the council presidency (the most powerful job in the City IMO, including Mayor). Good display of faction unity with Harris-Dawson moving and Blumenfield seconding the nomination.

I was really worried about potential Price supporters leaving the meeting and breaking quorum after the conclusion of public comment, since Price and Rodriguez boycotted the meeting themselves. But the 10 of them hung in there until the end.

[coloradocowboi]

A few things...

1. McOsker is the biggest ? on city council. I'm obviously not a fan, but think he is def more principled than Buscaino and maybe even his opponent sadly. He also will represent the most ignored parts of the city, many of which (the Black/Latino sections most likely) won't even be his constituents by the time he runs for re-election if this redistricting package is rly pushed through in 2024. Will be interesting to see whether he becomes a "conservative" on the council or takes a more centrist approach. My guess is the latter because he has designs on being mayor one day and can see clearly from Caruso's example that this city has absolutely no appetite for empowering the "conservative" faction.

2. Rodriguez was honestly v lucky to not be in the room because she is maybe the worst of all Latino reps on city council. On homelessness issues, she is truly heartless. Also in the pocket of big real estate. Wonder where she will go from here, because she is extremely isolated now, losing her allies (Wesson, Nury, Koretz) very quickly. She will be primaried again for sure, but I wonder if she might pivot to the left to head that off. Heather Hutt is her natural ally, because she's in a similar predicament.

3. Yikes. I forgot about Heather Hutt. She should've resigned too tbh and I've heard a good number of Black people in the city say the same thing. She's DOA in a primary, but also a useful tool for Herb Wesson, Caruso, the machine, etc. I actually feel v bad for her. She was loudly and publicly used. But I also expected more from her than "I'm not a tool, let's have redistricting reform." This seat has a lot of potential for progressives and I fully expect a Black progressive to challenge her.

4. Price, also yikes. He and Monica's cynical ploy to use identity politics to keep the city gov't in the hands of big real estate disgusts me. His primary was a huge missed opportunity, but the vote shows he is essentially a nobody on city council. I feel bad for his constituents

5. Mejia vs Koretz is getting nasty, and Koretz is clearly using the same bot source as Rick Caruso because you can't even type Kenneth's name on Twitter or Reddit without attracting trolls. This will be the closest race, I think

6. Because unfortunately, I expect Hydee to thwomp Faisal Gill. Her signs are everywhere. She's running a terrific campaign. I did not vote for her bc I have read literally dozens of empirical studies that show that prosecuting petty misdemeanors is a waste of gov't resources that doesn't make us much safer. But I considered it. I fully expect her to win

7. Caruso seems to have peaked early again, and this week the momentum feels like it's falling out from under him. The LA Times called him out on his bullsh**t this AM, bc he clearly knows more about Tyndall and Kelly than he's letting on. He's a terrible candidate and the problem is that whenever his money shifts the spotlight to him instead of trashing Karen Bass, he still looks bad because he sucks so badly. He's a "political outsider" who actually is just a real estate billionaire who got rich precisely bc he was cozy w/ city hall. He's a "democrat" who is clearly a conservative republican lol. He's a rich guy, which these days is actually a - in most of southern california. He's a terrible candidate for mayor in a place like LA. So, I expect him to go down and prolly by a healthy margin

8. Buttt.... boy Karen Bass is gonna have a lot on her hands: factional city hall, gascon's re-election looming in the background, and really vibrant and growing social movements. Buckle up, LA (I'm also planning to leave lol)

[Canis]

A few things...

1. McOsker is the biggest ? on city council. I'm obviously not a fan, but think he is def more principled than Buscaino and maybe even his opponent sadly. He also will represent the most ignored parts of the city, many of which (the Black/Latino sections most likely) won't even be his constituents by the time he runs for re-election if this redistricting package is rly pushed through in 2024. Will be interesting to see whether he becomes a "conservative" on the council or takes a more centrist approach. My guess is the latter because he has designs on being mayor one day and can see clearly from Caruso's example that this city has absolutely no appetite for empowering the "conservative" faction.

2. Rodriguez was honestly v lucky to not be in the room because she is maybe the worst of all Latino reps on city council. On homelessness issues, she is truly heartless. Also in the pocket of big real estate. Wonder where she will go from here, because she is extremely isolated now, losing her allies (Wesson, Nury, Koretz) very quickly. She will be primaried again for sure, but I wonder if she might pivot to the left to head that off. Heather Hutt is her natural ally, because she's in a similar predicament.

3. Yikes. I forgot about Heather Hutt. She should've resigned too tbh and I've heard a good number of Black people in the city say the same thing. She's DOA in a primary, but also a useful tool for Herb Wesson, Caruso, the machine, etc. I actually feel v bad for her. She was loudly and publicly used. But I also expected more from her than "I'm not a tool, let's have redistricting reform." This seat has a lot of potential for progressives and I fully expect a Black progressive to challenge her.

4. Price, also yikes. He and Monica's cynical ploy to use identity politics to keep the city gov't in the hands of big real estate disgusts me. His primary was a huge missed opportunity, but the vote shows he is essentially a nobody on city council. I feel bad for his constituents

5. Mejia vs Koretz is getting nasty, and Koretz is clearly using the same bot source as Rick Caruso because you can't even type Kenneth's name on Twitter or Reddit without attracting trolls. This will be the closest race, I think

6. Because unfortunately, I expect Hydee to thwomp Faisal Gill. Her signs are everywhere. She's running a terrific campaign. I did not vote for her bc I have read literally dozens of empirical studies that show that prosecuting petty misdemeanors is a waste of gov't resources that doesn't make us much safer. But I considered it. I fully expect her to win

7. Caruso seems to have peaked early again, and this week the momentum feels like it's falling out from under him. The LA Times called him out on his bullsh**t this AM, bc he clearly knows more about Tyndall and Kelly than he's letting on. He's a terrible candidate and the problem is that whenever his money shifts the spotlight to him instead of trashing Karen Bass, he still looks bad because he sucks so badly. He's a "political outsider" who actually is just a real estate billionaire who got rich precisely bc he was cozy w/ city hall. He's a "democrat" who is clearly a conservative republican lol. He's a rich guy, which these days is actually a - in most of southern california. He's a terrible candidate for mayor in a place like LA. So, I expect him to go down and prolly by a healthy margin

8. Buttt.... boy Karen Bass is gonna have a lot on her hands: factional city hall, gascon's re-election looming in the background, and really vibrant and growing social movements. Buckle up, LA (I'm also planning to leave lol)

Meija vs Koretz isn't gonna be close. Koretz is using bots and sending out tons of negative texts to smear Kenneth because hes desperate. Kenneth is wayyyy ahead. trust me as someone working with the campaign, Kenneth got this locked up when he secured the Clements endorsement securing the LA times endorsement again was the cherry on top. Plus they have tons of mailers and canvassing events planned for the last few weeks just to be safe, I don't think theirs anything Koretz can do to win at this point unless Kenneth has a serious scandal hes well ahead. I agree with all of your analysis on the other races though

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

My synopsis of Curren Price's speech after being elevated to President Pro Tem of the City Council:

"I definitely in no universe was invited to that meeting, I never heard of it, and because I had never heard of it, then there’s definitely no way I was invited to that meeting. Wait, what meeting is everyone talking about? I am so unaffiliated with that meeting I don’t even know what meeting we’re talking about anymore.”

[coloradocowboi]

My synopsis of Curren Price's speech after being elevated to President Pro Tem of the City Council:

"I definitely in no universe was invited to that meeting, I never heard of it, and because I had never heard of it, then there’s definitely no way I was invited to that meeting. Wait, what meeting is everyone talking about? I am so unaffiliated with that meeting I don’t even know what meeting we’re talking about anymore.”

He is such a dumb***. Almost got unseated by a write in iirc. Makes me wonder why he didn’t face serious opposition?

[Oppo]

Caruso gets an unlikely endorsement

https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1585332152958214144?s=46&t=T58nzbECglMS...

[coloradocowboi]

Caruso gets an unlikely endorsement

https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1585332152958214144?s=46&t=T58nzbECglMS...

They are all gonna rush to get a tulsi gabbard contract and may very well have been plants to begin with. But sadly I think the more likely answer is even “socialist” internet celebrities will do anything for attention. I will not miss people retweeting that gasbag tho.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Caruso gets an unlikely endorsement

https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1585332152958214144?s=46&t=T58nzbECglMS...

They are all gonna rush to get a tulsi gabbard contract and may very well have been plants to begin with. But sadly I think the more likely answer is even “socialist” internet celebrities will do anything for attention. I will not miss people retweeting that gasbag tho.

GALAXY BRAIN TAKE

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I wanted to make a comment about the mayoral race, which I don't care as much about since the 15 mayors on the City Council are significantly more important.

I expect Bass to win by at least high single digits... a 55-45 win seems about right. But Caruso is not running as bad of a campaign as people here seem to think. Just like how no one cares about the Bass USC degree and MRT thing, no one cares about the Caruso USC Tyndall thing.

Caruso has been spending a ton on Spanish-speaking media in an effort to keep the margins manageable in majority Latino Council Districts. There was a good Arellano column in this morning's LA Times that describes exactly the dynamic unfolding, particularly on the Eastside.

If Caruso can somehow win, it will be because he surged with Latinos and juiced white turnout in the Valley. Again, I don't think it is likely, but a Caruso win would not be shocking.

[Canis]

Looks like I called the local races right on the money.
LA mayor is dead tight but the remaining ballots should favor Karen I expect her to pull it off by 5-6 points in the end. Kenneth won in a landslide and I'm so fricking happy about it all my union's candidates won as well as our ballot measure. its a bright day for Los Angeles. It's crazy how much better Kenneth did than Karen especially when you find out Kenneth was outspent by the same margin as Karen it shows much of a better campaign he ran.

As for the city council races Hugos is ahead narrowly but his lead should widen. CD11 looks like its gonna be razor tight as well I really hope Erin Darling pulls it off.

[Minnesota Mike]

Now that all the vote center ballots have been counted I expect Bass will pull into the lead like she did in the primary. Have to wait until Friday though as that is when LA County has their first update.

[coloradocowboi]

Looks like I called the local races right on the money.
LA mayor is dead tight but the remaining ballots should favor Karen I expect her to pull it off by 5-6 points in the end. Kenneth won in a landslide and I'm so fricking happy about it all my union's candidates won as well as our ballot measure. its a bright day for Los Angeles. It's crazy how much better Kenneth did than Karen especially when you find out Kenneth was outspent by the same margin as Karen it shows much of a better campaign he won.

as for the city council races Hugos is ahead narrowly but his lead should widen. CD11 looks like its gonna be razor tight as well I really hope Erin Darling pulls it off.

I really need someone to explain to me how 1/10th of voters in this city are pulling the lever for both the "eat the rich" guy and a billionaire.

I expect Hugo to win. No idea about Darling, but would be truly appalled and not at all surprised to hear the roidheads on the Westside sent a fash to the city council.

The last big ? for me is whether or not outstanding ballots are blue enough to lift Lindsey Horvath past Bob Hertzberg for City Council. it's weird he's winning on such an anti-establishment occasion. Probably because Horvath is tied to Sheila Kuehl

[Canis]

Looks like I called the local races right on the money.
LA mayor is dead tight but the remaining ballots should favor Karen I expect her to pull it off by 5-6 points in the end. Kenneth won in a landslide and I'm so fricking happy about it all my union's candidates won as well as our ballot measure. its a bright day for Los Angeles. It's crazy how much better Kenneth did than Karen especially when you find out Kenneth was outspent by the same margin as Karen it shows much of a better campaign he won.

as for the city council races Hugos is ahead narrowly but his lead should widen. CD11 looks like its gonna be razor tight as well I really hope Erin Darling pulls it off.

I really need someone to explain to me how 1/10th of voters in this city are pulling the lever for both the "eat the rich" guy and a billionaire.

I expect Hugo to win. No idea about Darling, but would be truly appalled and not at all surprised to hear the roidheads on the Westside sent a fash to the city council.

The last big ? for me is whether or not outstanding ballots are blue enough to lift Lindsey Horvath past Bob Hertzberg for City Council. it's weird he's winning on such an anti-establishment occasion. Probably because Horvath is tied to Sheila Kuehl

I spent over 600 hours in the field and ran into a few of em and they were mostly low-info voters who just liked how Rick and Kenneth both portrayed themselves as outsiders and fell for Caruso's smears about Karen.