Los Angeles Mayor 2022: Bass vs Caruso

[Canis]

New Berkley poll that I was part of just released
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-04-11/karen-bass-rick-caruso-in-dead-heat-mayoral-poll

Rick Caruso 24%
Karen Bass 23%
Kevin De Leon 6%
Gina Viola 2%
Mike Feuer 2%
Joe Buscaino 1%
Alex Grunenfelder 1%
Ramit Varma 1%
Andrew Kim 1% 
Undecided 39%

Second choices

Kevin De Leon 8%
Karen Bass 7%
Mike Feuer 5%
Rick Caruso 4%
Alex Grunenfelder 2%
Gina Viola 2%
Andrew Kim 2%
Craig Grewe 1%
Ramit Varma 1%
Undecided 61%

 
According to the poll 50% of Latinos are undecided of the Lations that are decided its a dead heat between KDL and Buscaino.

The poll also has a geographic breakdown which shows that Caruso is leading Bass 2-1 in the Valley and Bass is leading Caruso in the rest of the city.  Bass also has overwhelming support among black voters and is the highest polling candidate among white liberals.

It's clear that this race will be decided by where the Latino vote goes because of how poorly KDL is polling in all demographics if he wants to win he has to do well among Latino voters to stand a shot at getting into round 2.

At the moment though it looks like the general is very likely to be Bass vs Caruso.

Feuer and Buscaino are also likely done if they're polling this poorly at this point. Since Gina is matching Feuer I wonder if they'll finally invite her to the debate. It'll be interesting to see what she brings to the discussion.

EDIT: Included the full numbers
Im very happy that my candidate Alex is tied with Buscaino, pretty interesting how low Caruso is with second choices also interesting to see KDL doing well their too.
I think that shows it might not be going well for him but he could potentially surge later in the race if he does well with undecideds.

This race is far from over.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Caruso is definitely gaining momentum

[Canis]

After the poll came out theirs been a huge push to include Gina and some of the other candidates in the debate since shes outpolling Buscaino. CBS also got a lof of flak for showing a graphic of the poll and excluding Gina but including Joe. The minor candidates held a protest and were interviewed by the LA times at the beginning of this week including my candidate Alex. This morning Caruso called for them to  be included which is definitely something I didn't expect.
https://twitter.com/RickCarusoLA/status/1514293350500773888

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Curuso has come up, Bass goes down, Bass is seen like a Maxine Waters tyoe too tied to the Establishment just like Newsom is the next Gov in 26 could be STEYER, Newsom is gonna finish his 2T but someone brand new not anymore Newsom is gonna be Gov too

[SevenEleven]

It's nothing short of terrifying how awful all of these candidates seem to be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is an open Gov race in 26 and NEWSOM was lame alot of candidates are auditioning to become Gov and STEYER is probably running too

[NewYorkExpress]

Joe Buscaino drops out, endorses Rick Caruso.

City Councilman Joe Buscaino on Thursday announced he is dropping out of the Los Angeles mayoral race and endorsing billionaire developer Rick Caruso.

"Rick and I agree on the playbook to solve the city's pressing issues," Buscaino said in a statement. "Today's decision did not come easy, but the future of Los Angeles is my priority. Together we will make Los Angeles cleaner and safer for all."

[coloradocowboi]

Joe Buscaino drops out, endorses Rick Caruso.

City Councilman Joe Buscaino on Thursday announced he is dropping out of the Los Angeles mayoral race and endorsing billionaire developer Rick Caruso.

"Rick and I agree on the playbook to solve the city's pressing issues," Buscaino said in a statement. "Today's decision did not come easy, but the future of Los Angeles is my priority. Together we will make Los Angeles cleaner and safer for all."

Hmmm and a week ago, he was insinuating (correctly) that Caruso is a privileged rich kid who can’t solve any of the city’s problems because he epitomizes them. Guess your dignity is easy to sell when you’re polling at 1% and 0% as a second choice. Rick Caruso is running on two things, homelessness and crime, and he is going to have a very hard time explaining why he is qualified to solve these problems when he: 1. Has served on the police board for decades and missed almost half of its meetings; 2. Became a billionaire only through the exact kind of corrupt, city hall agreements that arbitrarily jack up this city’s housing prices. I still think that there are just enough people here who understand the absurdity of his argument that he can’t win.

I don’t see this moving the dial, and I do thankfully see the Caruso momentum sliding. I still expect him to make it into the run off, but I did my duty, held my nose, and voted for Kevin de Leon this weekend to try to prevent that. I fully expect him to overperform his polls, as will Karen Bass and Caruso as undecideds make their moves. 

A few other outstanding, interesting questions for those interested in LA politics:

1. Will Kenneth Mejia continue to cruise in his election for city controller or will the establishment finally turn on him?

2. Who tf goes to round 2 of our sheriff election against Villanueva?

3. How do Gil Cedillo and Mitch O’Farrell’s progressive challengers do in the June primary? If either incumbent is held under 50%, like David Ryu was, they are in deep trouble

4. Will conservadems claim Mike Bonin’s seat? Can they retain Koretz’s and Buscaino’s?

[Canis]

Joe Buscaino drops out, endorses Rick Caruso.

City Councilman Joe Buscaino on Thursday announced he is dropping out of the Los Angeles mayoral race and endorsing billionaire developer Rick Caruso.

"Rick and I agree on the playbook to solve the city's pressing issues," Buscaino said in a statement. "Today's decision did not come easy, but the future of Los Angeles is my priority. Together we will make Los Angeles cleaner and safer for all."

Hmmm and a week ago, he was insinuating (correctly) that Caruso is a privileged rich kid who can’t solve any of the city’s problems because he epitomizes them. Guess your dignity is easy to sell when you’re polling at 1% and 0% as a second choice. Rick Caruso is running on two things, homelessness and crime, and he is going to have a very hard time explaining why he is qualified to solve these problems when he: 1. Has served on the police board for decades and missed almost half of its meetings; 2. Became a billionaire only through the exact kind of corrupt, city hall agreements that arbitrarily jack up this city’s housing prices. I still think that there are just enough people here who understand the absurdity of his argument that he can’t win.

I don’t see this moving the dial, and I do thankfully see the Caruso momentum sliding. I still expect him to make it into the run off, but I did my duty, held my nose, and voted for Kevin de Leon this weekend to try to prevent that. I fully expect him to overperform his polls, as will Karen Bass and Caruso as undecideds make their moves. 

A few other outstanding, interesting questions for those interested in LA politics:

1. Will Kenneth Mejia continue to cruise in his election for city controller or will the establishment finally turn on him?

2. Who tf goes to round 2 of our sheriff election against Villanueva?

3. How do Gil Cedillo and Mitch O’Farrell’s progressive challengers do in the June primary? If either incumbent is held under 50%, like David Ryu was, they are in deep trouble

4. Will conservadems claim Mike Bonin’s seat? Can they retain Koretz’s and Buscaino’s?

1. the Establishment did attack Kenneth after he got the LA times endorsement with that hit piece with all his old tweets. I saw that move some people against Kenneth but IMO it was largely ineffective as Kenneth continues to create positive headlines about himself and pickup big endorsements people have forgotten about his old tweets. I don't think theirs anything else they have left to throw at him Im really confident on him winning.

2. That is a really interesting question which I don't know the answer of I voted for Eric Strong and I hope he makes but if I had to guess id say its Rhambo but Luna and Vera also are decent contenders.

3. Gil is only facing Hernadez so his election will be decided in June. I really hope Mitch gets less than 50 he needs to go down after the Echo Park disaster.

It's interesting you decided for Kevin. I've seen pretty much all the undecided people in the progressive circles I'm in break for Karen and Gina at the last minute. (Interestingly enough its pretty much been all the progressives 30 and under braking for Gina and the older ones breaking for Bass) I voted for Alex proudly in the end as I wanted my ballot to be a statement of my values. I know he's not gonna do great but I think the better he and Gina do the more Karen will realize she can't take the left for granted and continue pursuing these tough-on-crime policies she's been pushing.
Just curious who did you decide to support for city council in?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope they clean up Skid Row and put Apartment complexes there with subsidies that what we need not homeless people

It was okay before COVID now more and more are coming because it never rains and it's tent City

Caruso next Mayor of Los Angeles

[coloradocowboi]

.

It's interesting you decided for Kevin. I've seen pretty much all the undecided people in the progressive circles I'm in break for Karen and Gina at the last minute. (Interestingly enough its pretty much been all the progressives 30 and under braking for Gina and the older ones breaking for Bass) I voted for Alex proudly in the end as I wanted my ballot to be a statement of my values. I know he's not gonna do great but I think the better he and Gina do the more Karen will realize she can't take the left for granted and continue pursuing these tough-on-crime policies she's been pushing.
Just curious who did you decide to support for city council in?

Tbh I’m more afraid of Caruso than I am hopeful about anything. I mean look what olawakandi just wrote, completely contrary to any logical or factual analysis. People aren’t smart anymore in this country, and really will just elect a real estate mogul (who btw could’ve done exactly what his campaign suggesting long ago without running for mayor and never did) because they don’t like having to trip over beggars on the way to work. What makes me so angry though, is that as a longtime downtown resident I can say pretty definitively now that the police raids just send them back this way causing headaches for all of us who live here.

I didn’t vote for city council, but I just realized when I did last time it was actually against Kevin de Leon. So apparently this elections theme is masochism for me

[I’m not Stu]

How's Humboldt and Mendocino's favorite candidate doing in the polls?

[Canis]

.

It's interesting you decided for Kevin. I've seen pretty much all the undecided people in the progressive circles I'm in break for Karen and Gina at the last minute. (Interestingly enough its pretty much been all the progressives 30 and under braking for Gina and the older ones breaking for Bass) I voted for Alex proudly in the end as I wanted my ballot to be a statement of my values. I know he's not gonna do great but I think the better he and Gina do the more Karen will realize she can't take the left for granted and continue pursuing these tough-on-crime policies she's been pushing.
Just curious who did you decide to support for city council in?

Tbh I’m more afraid of Caruso than I am hopeful about anything. I mean look what olawakandi just wrote, completely contrary to any logical or factual analysis. People aren’t smart anymore in this country, and really will just elect a real estate mogul (who btw could’ve done exactly what his campaign suggesting long ago without running for mayor and never did) because they don’t like having to trip over beggars on the way to work. What makes me so angry though, is that as a longtime downtown resident I can say pretty definitively now that the police raids just send them back this way causing headaches for all of us who live here.

I didn’t vote for city council, but I just realized when I did last time it was actually against Kevin de Leon. So apparently this elections theme is masochism for me

Ohhhhhhh I thought you were in the 13th because you said were organizing against O'Farrell. Did you pick a candidate in that race I think its gonna end up being Hugo vs Mitch now Hugo's got all the big endorsements and from what I've heard has been killing it with the ground game.

Speaking of Caruso,
Kenneth and his volunteers have been running into a lot of Caruso/Meija voters. Which is just stunning to me because ideologically their so opposed. Most of their justifications have been they just want outsiders from city and state politics in office because of all the corruption in city hall which is understandable for Kenneth lol but acting like Caruso won't act just as corrupt is bizarre to me he was influencing city politics from the outside for years with his money.

I wonder how large or significant a voting block these Caruso/Meija voters will be. It also sort of reminds me of Bernie/Trump voters who didn't really have any ideology just wanted outsiders in office.

How's Humboldt and Mendocino's favorite candidate doing in the polls?

Not sure who you're referring to but if its KDL not well. The last poll had him at 6%. the bulk of undecided voters is Hispanic though which is his best demographic but in order to make the GE he'd have to get over 60% of undecideds which is incredibly unlikely IMO.

[I’m not Stu]

.

It's interesting you decided for Kevin. I've seen pretty much all the undecided people in the progressive circles I'm in break for Karen and Gina at the last minute. (Interestingly enough its pretty much been all the progressives 30 and under braking for Gina and the older ones breaking for Bass) I voted for Alex proudly in the end as I wanted my ballot to be a statement of my values. I know he's not gonna do great but I think the better he and Gina do the more Karen will realize she can't take the left for granted and continue pursuing these tough-on-crime policies she's been pushing.
Just curious who did you decide to support for city council in?

Tbh I’m more afraid of Caruso than I am hopeful about anything. I mean look what olawakandi just wrote, completely contrary to any logical or factual analysis. People aren’t smart anymore in this country, and really will just elect a real estate mogul (who btw could’ve done exactly what his campaign suggesting long ago without running for mayor and never did) because they don’t like having to trip over beggars on the way to work. What makes me so angry though, is that as a longtime downtown resident I can say pretty definitively now that the police raids just send them back this way causing headaches for all of us who live here.

I didn’t vote for city council, but I just realized when I did last time it was actually against Kevin de Leon. So apparently this elections theme is masochism for me

Ohhhhhhh I thought you were in the 13th because you said were organizing against O'Farrell. Did you pick a candidate in that race I think its gonna end up being Hugo vs Mitch now Hugo's got all the big endorsements and from what I've heard has been killing it with the ground game.

Speaking of Caruso,
Kenneth and his volunteers have been running into a lot of Caruso/Meija voters. Which is just stunning to me because ideologically their so opposed. Most of their justifications have been they just want outsiders from city and state politics in office because of all the corruption in city hall which is understandable for Kenneth lol but acting like Caruso won't act just as corrupt is bizarre to me he was influencing city politics from the outside for years with his money.

I wonder how large or significant a voting block these Caruso/Meija voters will be. It also sort of reminds me of Bernie/Trump voters who didn't really have any ideology just wanted outsiders in office.

How's Humboldt and Mendocino's favorite candidate doing in the polls?

Not sure who you're referring to but if its KDL not well. The last poll had him at 6%. the bulk of undecided voters is Hispanic though which is his best demographic but in order to make the GE he'd have to get over 60% of undecideds which is incredibly unlikely IMO.

6%? He lost all the Hispanic VRA House districts in Los Angeles and Orange County in 2018. He won't get many undecideds.

[Canis]

.

It's interesting you decided for Kevin. I've seen pretty much all the undecided people in the progressive circles I'm in break for Karen and Gina at the last minute. (Interestingly enough its pretty much been all the progressives 30 and under braking for Gina and the older ones breaking for Bass) I voted for Alex proudly in the end as I wanted my ballot to be a statement of my values. I know he's not gonna do great but I think the better he and Gina do the more Karen will realize she can't take the left for granted and continue pursuing these tough-on-crime policies she's been pushing.
Just curious who did you decide to support for city council in?

Tbh I’m more afraid of Caruso than I am hopeful about anything. I mean look what olawakandi just wrote, completely contrary to any logical or factual analysis. People aren’t smart anymore in this country, and really will just elect a real estate mogul (who btw could’ve done exactly what his campaign suggesting long ago without running for mayor and never did) because they don’t like having to trip over beggars on the way to work. What makes me so angry though, is that as a longtime downtown resident I can say pretty definitively now that the police raids just send them back this way causing headaches for all of us who live here.

I didn’t vote for city council, but I just realized when I did last time it was actually against Kevin de Leon. So apparently this elections theme is masochism for me

Ohhhhhhh I thought you were in the 13th because you said were organizing against O'Farrell. Did you pick a candidate in that race I think its gonna end up being Hugo vs Mitch now Hugo's got all the big endorsements and from what I've heard has been killing it with the ground game.

Speaking of Caruso,
Kenneth and his volunteers have been running into a lot of Caruso/Meija voters. Which is just stunning to me because ideologically their so opposed. Most of their justifications have been they just want outsiders from city and state politics in office because of all the corruption in city hall which is understandable for Kenneth lol but acting like Caruso won't act just as corrupt is bizarre to me he was influencing city politics from the outside for years with his money.

I wonder how large or significant a voting block these Caruso/Meija voters will be. It also sort of reminds me of Bernie/Trump voters who didn't really have any ideology just wanted outsiders in office.

How's Humboldt and Mendocino's favorite candidate doing in the polls?

Not sure who you're referring to but if its KDL not well. The last poll had him at 6%. the bulk of undecided voters is Hispanic though which is his best demographic but in order to make the GE he'd have to get over 60% of undecideds which is incredibly unlikely IMO.

6%? He lost all the Hispanic VRA House districts in Los Angeles and Orange County in 2018. He won't get many undecideds.

39% of Los Angeles voters were undecided in that poll and they were mostly his best demographics so he will definitely get a good chunk of them but I think the chance of him getting enough to beat Caruso or Bass is probably less than 1% his campaign is pretty much toast. He did file to run for LG in 2026 so it looks like he knows that too.
ATM id predict the first round results will be something like this
Caruso 26-33%ish
Bass 25-30%ish
Kevin De Leon 15-18%ish
Viola 5-8%ish
Wilson 2-5%
Gruenenfelder 0-2%
Grewe 0-2%

[Alben Barkley]

.

It's interesting you decided for Kevin. I've seen pretty much all the undecided people in the progressive circles I'm in break for Karen and Gina at the last minute. (Interestingly enough its pretty much been all the progressives 30 and under braking for Gina and the older ones breaking for Bass) I voted for Alex proudly in the end as I wanted my ballot to be a statement of my values. I know he's not gonna do great but I think the better he and Gina do the more Karen will realize she can't take the left for granted and continue pursuing these tough-on-crime policies she's been pushing.
Just curious who did you decide to support for city council in?

Tbh I’m more afraid of Caruso than I am hopeful about anything. I mean look what olawakandi just wrote, completely contrary to any logical or factual analysis. People aren’t smart anymore in this country, and really will just elect a real estate mogul (who btw could’ve done exactly what his campaign suggesting long ago without running for mayor and never did) because they don’t like having to trip over beggars on the way to work. What makes me so angry though, is that as a longtime downtown resident I can say pretty definitively now that the police raids just send them back this way causing headaches for all of us who live here.

I didn’t vote for city council, but I just realized when I did last time it was actually against Kevin de Leon. So apparently this elections theme is masochism for me

This is not true if asinine zoning restrictions, insane bureauctratic red tape, and counterproductive rent control laws -- all pusehd by NIMBYs -- hinder development. That is undoubtedly what Caruso has been up against in the most NIMBY state in the country, and what he might be able to change if elected. I hope he wins, would be a sign that maybe California wants to be a livable state again rather than one which virtue signals as "progressive" but does exactly the wrong thing at nearly every turn when it comes to actually helping the poor and the people in general.

Also, based:

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/i-endorse-the-real-snoop-dogg-joins-sweet-alice-backs-rick-caruso-for-l-a-mayor/

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AllestOfficial/status/1530736990345236480

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/NoahJAguirre/status/1531807542715686912?t=NMdT4_2PpZvRcFtjT6...
Hilarious and somewhat true though I doubt Caruso can clear 50%

[LabourJersey]

It seems that Caruso has the big Mo right now--is that correct?

His political background/opportunism aside, he does seem to be running a far better campaign than I'd expect from a billionaire, basically-Republican real estate guy in a major city in 2022.

I assume this is a classic example of how money does effect these races, plus a little bit of Karen Bass not exactly lighting the Democratic voters on fire right now.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It seems that Caruso has the big Mo right now--is that correct?

His political background/opportunism aside, he does seem to be running a far better campaign than I'd expect from a billionaire, basically-Republican real estate guy in a major city in 2022.

I assume this is a classic example of how money does effect these races, plus a little bit of Karen Bass not exactly lighting the Democratic voters on fire right now.

It's hard to tell at the moment. UC Berkeley released a poll in the last week showing Bass leading Caruso 38-32 among likely voters. In a one-on-one race, they have Bass leading 49-35.

Things can certainly change in the next 5 months, but Caruso seems to have a ceiling in the mid-30s that he hasn't cracked yet.


https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/25/02/3bd6c0344da19cac7377d5c6782d/la-q10-12-toplines.pdf

[LabourJersey]

So as it stands Caruso has 42% of the vote to Bass's 37%.

There's still plenty of votes to be counted yet (only 53% in) but it'll be really, really interesting to see how those go.

Does seem that Caruso overperformed at face value, but it's entirely possible that won't be the case once all votes come through.

[Sir Mohamed]

It seems that Caruso has the big Mo right now--is that correct?

His political background/opportunism aside, he does seem to be running a far better campaign than I'd expect from a billionaire, basically-Republican real estate guy in a major city in 2022.

I assume this is a classic example of how money does effect these races, plus a little bit of Karen Bass not exactly lighting the Democratic voters on fire right now.

It's hard to tell at the moment. UC Berkeley released a poll in the last week showing Bass leading Caruso 38-32 among likely voters. In a one-on-one race, they have Bass leading 49-35.

Things can certainly change in the next 5 months, but Caruso seems to have a ceiling in the mid-30s that he hasn't cracked yet.


https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/25/02/3bd6c0344da19cac7377d5c6782d/la-q10-12-toplines.pdf

Not sure, he could easily get 40-42% in the November election. I wouldn't even rule out an upset in the end. I guess a lot depends on how the campaign progresses into the fall.

[Canis]

Its crazy how close the City attorney race is theirs almost a 3-way tie at the top. Hopping Faisal Gill makes it to the GE. Also very happy about Meija crushing it in round 1 let's hope he does the same in the general!  Mitch O'Farrell is also in a lot of trouble in CD13 (only getting 36% as an incumbent in the primary does not bode well for him against Hugo in November) and I'm very glad Erin Darling made it as well.
Overall not a bad night for progressives I'm bummed that it almost certainly didn't work out for Shervin but Angelica and David made the general again and Maebe and Daniel Lee are also very close and could also potentially make the general.

[Barack Oganja]

People in cities are unhappy with the status quo, especially in regards to crime and homelessness, which has opened the door for candidates like Eric Adams and now Caruso. Can't keep sweeping these issues under the rug, people are fed up.

[Canis]

People in cities are unhappy with the status quo, especially in regards to crime and homelessness, which has opened the door for candidates like Eric Adams and now Caruso. Can't keep sweeping these issues under the rug, people are fed up.

The only ones who want to sweep it under the rug are the establishment in Los Angeles the Garcetti, De Leon types. They sweep the unhoused from neighborhood to neighborhood while defunding our social services in favor of the already way too large police budget and placing the unhoused in temporary housing. 
The left wants to build more affordable housing and social housing to lower housing costs and deal with poverty to lower crime. While the right like Caruso wants to increase the criminalization of poverty with measures such as LAMC 41.18 and just remove the homeless from the city and allow black rock and other private equity firms to continue buying property and building single unit housing that is way to expensive for anyone whose not a millionare to afford.