Los Angeles Mayor 2022: Bass vs Caruso

[DrScholl]

Caruso can easily be framed as out of touch in a similar way as Mike Bloomberg in the presidential race. Caruso builds luxury developments and has not even tried to build affordable. Years ago he got a sweetheart deal on taxpayer owned land where he doesn't have to pay the $1 (yes, one dollar) rent on the property unless it earns 12% profit. That threshold has never been reached and the vacancy rate in the retail spaces has always been high. Every space is empty now.

And a couple of months ago he got a deal to buy the property at far below market values to build luxury housing. He didn't offer to build one affordable unit. He's not anti-establishment, but business establishment on the lines of Mitt Romney.

[coloradocowboi]

People in cities are unhappy with the status quo, especially in regards to crime and homelessness, which has opened the door for candidates like Eric Adams and now Caruso. Can't keep sweeping these issues under the rug, people are fed up.

The only ones who want to sweep it under the rug are the establishment in Los Angeles the Garcetti, De Leon types. They sweep the unhoused from neighborhood to neighborhood while defunding our social services in favor of the already way too large police budget and placing the unhoused in temporary housing. 
The left wants to build more affordable housing and social housing to lower housing costs and deal with poverty to lower crime. While the right like Caruso wants to increase the criminalization of poverty with measures such as LAMC 41.18 and just remove the homeless from the city and allow black rock and other private equity firms to continue buying property and building single unit housing that is way to expensive for anyone whose not a millionare to afford.

Caruso can easily be framed as out of touch in a similar way as Mike Bloomberg in the presidential race. Caruso builds luxury developments and has not even tried to build affordable. Years ago he got a sweetheart deal on taxpayer owned land where he doesn't have to pay the $1 (yes, one dollar) rent on the property unless it earns 12% profit. That threshold has never been reached and the vacancy rate in the retail spaces has always been high. Every space is empty now.

And a couple of months ago he got a deal to buy the property at far below market values to build luxury housing. He didn't offer to build one affordable unit. He's not anti-establishment, but business establishment on the lines of Mitt Romney.

Based and based.

But it's a really dark moment for democracy and this city. Caruso was given tons of free positive media and spent $40 million on the rest.

[Alben Barkley]

Caruso is gonna win in November, BASED.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

https://twitter.com/LACountyRRCC/status/1534693577044815872

400k VBM outstanding and ~1k provisionals.

Looks like a blue shift is incoming.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/reporterliz/status/1535391620819890176
Mitch is in big big trouble thank god

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Since Wednesday afternoon:


Caruso        155,929   40.5   ( - 1.6 )   (+ 22,420 votes)
Bass           149,104   38.8  ( + 1.8 )   (+ 32,416 votes)

[wbrocks67]

Given that there still appears to be like 350K ballots remaining in LA, would not be surprised to see Bass take a considerable lead.

[Oryxslayer]

Bass now leads by 3%.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that ballots are accepted if they arrived after poll closing is insane imo. At least in Oregon they are not accepted

[Holmes]

The fact that ballots are accepted if they arrived after poll closing is insane imo. At least in Oregon they are not accepted

I've been voting every day since the polls closed.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Since Wednesday afternoon:


Caruso        155,929   40.5   ( - 1.6 )   (+ 22,420 votes)
Bass           149,104   38.8  ( + 1.8 )   (+ 32,416 votes)

Since Friday afternoon:

Bass           202,818   41.1  ( + 2.3 )   (+ 53,714 votes)
Caruso        189,178   38.3   ( - 2.2 )   (+ 33,249 votes)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also, it ain't a true California elections thread unless folks complain about California's ballot counting process

[coloradocowboi]

It’s actually outrageous how centrist media outlets like the NYT and Atlantic cited this election as a sign “progressives have gone too far” when the real story has been that progressives won big in LA.

Eunice’s Hernandez is now leading Gil Cedillo. There is a movement underway here that elite media is completely ignoring. And, yes, Snitch O’Farrell is next.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It’s actually outrageous how centrist media outlets like the NYT and Atlantic cited this election as a sign “progressives have gone too far” when the real story has been that progressives won big in LA.

Eunice’s Hernandez is now leading Gil Cedillo. There is a movement underway here that elite media is completely ignoring. And, yes, Snitch O’Farrell is next.

Funny enough, the LA Times wrote an editorial a few days ago pretty much reiterating your points

Editorial: Election night results are a thing of the past

[...]Just look at the June 7 primary. In the hours after the first results were posted online by county and state officials, there were plenty of declarations that the election was a “progressive backlash” and an “urban revolt” because the recall of San Francisco Dist. Atty. Chesa Boudin, a criminal justice reform champion, appeared to have overwhelming support and Rick Caruso, the once-Republican, now tougher-on-crime candidate for Los Angeles mayor, had a strong lead in the race.

A week later, the portion of votes in favor of recalling Boudin had shrunk from 60% to 55%; he’s still out of the job but it’s not a landslide. And Karen Bass, the more progressive candidate for L.A. mayor, is now leading in the race — and the results in that race could change again. Los Angeles County still has 365,000 ballots left to count.

And there have been other big shifts too. Last week it looked as though Los Angeles City Councilmember Gil Cedillo would win reelection. This week policy advocate Eunisses Hernandez is leading the race by nearly 300 votes. Whoever wins the primary, wins the seat. In the San Fernando Valley’s 20th state Senate District, the early returns suggested Daniel Hertzberg — son of the current holder of the seat, his father Bob Hertzberg — would face Republican Ely De La Cruz Ayao and most likely coast to an easy victory. As more votes were counted, Democrat Caroline Menjivar rose to second place, which would mean a more competitive Democract-vs.-Democrat runoff in November. Each batch of votes counted has brought big changes in key races, and there are still more batches to come.[...]

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-06-16/election-night-results-california-voting

[Babeuf]

Bass now up 42.87%-36.33% after the latest ballots. She won today’s drop around 50%-29%.

Mejia up to 42.8%. Cedillo has now all but lost to his DSA challenger and Hugo expanded his lead over Mitch in the other DSA race.

[Holmes]

Good thing I haven't stopped voting daily.

[PSOL]

I think Caruso is going to edge out in the runoff, but progressives won today a hard earned victory.

[Minnesota Mike]

The fact that ballots are accepted if they arrived after poll closing is insane imo. At least in Oregon they are not accepted

Not true. Any absentee postmarked before election day and arriving within 7 days is counted in Oregon. Law was changed in 2021.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that ballots are accepted if they arrived after poll closing is insane imo. At least in Oregon they are not accepted

Not true. Any absentee postmarked before election day and arriving within 7 days is counted in Oregon. Law was changed in 2021.

Ugh

[wbrocks67]

I think Caruso is going to edge out in the runoff, but progressives won today a hard earned victory.

The progressive total vote is like 20% more than Caruso's #.

[wbrocks67]

It’s actually outrageous how centrist media outlets like the NYT and Atlantic cited this election as a sign “progressives have gone too far” when the real story has been that progressives won big in LA.

Eunice’s Hernandez is now leading Gil Cedillo. There is a movement underway here that elite media is completely ignoring. And, yes, Snitch O’Farrell is next.

Not just that - but press reporters like Hotline Josh are actively blaming CA's slow process for their bad hot takes. It's parody.

[DrScholl]

I think Caruso is going to edge out in the runoff, but progressives won today a hard earned victory.

The progressive total vote is like 20% more than Caruso's #.

That part. It's hard to see Caruso pulling many votes from de León or Viola voters. He's going to be framed as a billionaire trying to by the mayoralty and that's a message that will resonate with progressives even if Bass wasn't their choice in the primary.

[coloradocowboi]

I think Caruso is going to edge out in the runoff, but progressives won today a hard earned victory.

The progressive total vote is like 20% more than Caruso's #.

That part. It's hard to see Caruso pulling many votes from de León or Viola voters. He's going to be framed as a billionaire trying to by the mayoralty and that's a message that will resonate with progressives even if Bass wasn't their choice in the primary.

It's more likely imo that he barely improves on his percentage and loses like 65-35 in the fall. He spent an ungodly sum already leveraging a v divisive issue. What else can he do?

[DrScholl]

Not much else he can do. His best chance was to win the primary outright but he didn't even get close with all that spending. He probably will become the valley candidate since the council districts he got 50% in are all in the San Fernando Valley. The valley has always felt a disconnect from the rest of the city and is more conservative (well, conservative by Los Angeles standards). For anyone interested this is how Bass vs. Caruso shaped up by council district.

Caruso   30.84%   1. Northeast Los Angeles, Pico Union
Bass   29.68%   
Caruso   40.84%   2. North Hollywood, Valley Glen, Valley Village
Bass   37.01%   
Caruso   53.58%   3. Canoga Park, Winnetka, Woodland Hills
Bass   29.02%   
Caruso   41.87%   4. Encino, Laurel Canyon, Sherman Oaks
Bass   43.01%   
Caruso   45.00%   5. Bel Air, Fairfax, Westwood
Bass   43.11%   
Caruso   48.40%   6. Lake Balboa, Van Nuys, Sun Valley
Bass   24.25%   
Caruso   53.40%   7. Paicoma, Sunland-Tujunga, Sylmar
Bass   21.80%   
Caruso   22.02%   8. South Los Angeles
Bass   61.57%   
Caruso   30.53%   9. South Los Angeles
Bass   34.92%   
Caruso   27.54%   10. Baldwin Hills, Crenshaw, Leimert Park
Bass   49.96%   
Caruso   46.72%   11. Brentwood, Pacific Palisades, Venice
Bass   42.56%   
Caruso   57.76%   12. Chatsworth, Granada Hills, Northridge
Bass   26.65%   
Caruso   31.37%   13. Atwater Village, Hollywood, Silverlake
Bass   38.79%   
Caruso   32.26%   14. Boyle Heights, Downtown Los Angeles, Eagle Rock
Bass   31.87%   
Caruso   47.30%   15. San Pedro, Watts
Bass   26.99%   

The weaker performances for Caruso in 5 and 11 are indicative of the problem he will have. Fairfax has been hit hard by robberies and Venice overwhelmed by homelessness yet his message didn't get him the really big numbers he needed there.

[pikachu]

The LA Times has a map.

(Some old maps for comparison.)