Los Angeles Mayor 2022: Bass vs Caruso

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Since last Tuesday:

Bass           277,459   43.1  ( + 2.0 )   (+ 74,641 votes)
Caruso        231,419   36.0   ( - 2.3 )   (+ 42,241 votes)


Caruso is right around the mid-30s range he's maxed out at in the polls.


Also, since the morning after election day;

Bass           +160,771 votes   +6.1%
Caruso          +98,360 votes   -6.1%

[DrScholl]

Something interesting that I just noticed is that Bass has the endorsement of Steve Soboroff who is the last Republican to run a serious campaign for Mayor. He might not be a Republican anymore though.

And the council district numbers I posted are actually from post election night and haven't been updated since then so Caruso probably has won fewer districts than those numbers indicate.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

And the council district numbers I posted are actually from post election night and haven't been updated since then so Caruso probably has won fewer districts than those numbers indicate.

You'd be right!

LA County uploaded, what looks to be, the final vote count. Underlined districts are those that flipped from Caruso to Bass since Election Day.

DISTRICT 1 (Northeast Los Angeles, Pico Union)
Caruso    24.6% (-6.2% from E-Day)
Bass       37.2% (+7.5%)

DISTRICT 2 (North Hollywood, Valley Glen, Valley Village)
Caruso    33.0% (-7.8%)
Bass       44.1% (+7.1%)

DISTRICT 3 (Canoga Park, Winnetka, Woodland Hills)
Caruso    47.2% (-6.4%)
Bass       35.0% (+6.0%)

DISTRICT 4 (Encino, Laurel Canyon, Sherman Oaks)
Caruso    35.2% (-6.7%)
Bass       49.3% (+6.3%)

DISTRICT 5 (Bel Air, Fairfax, Westwood)
Caruso    38.9% (-6.1%)
Bass       48.6% (+5.5%)

DISTRICT 6 (Lake Balboa, Van Nuys, Sun Valley)
Caruso    41.0% (-7.4%)
Bass       31.3% (+7.1%)

DISTRICT 7 (Palcoma, Sunland-Tujunga, Sylmar)
Caruso    47.9% (-5.5%)
Bass       27.0% (+5.2%)

DISTRICT 8 (South Los Angeles)
Caruso    19.1% (-2.9%)
Bass       64.5% (+2.9%)

DISTRICT 9 (South Los Angeles)
Caruso    26.2% (-4.4%)
Bass       37.8% (+2.9%)

DISTRICT 10 (Baldwin Hills, Crenshaw, Leimert Park)
Caruso    22.2% (-5.3%)
Bass       55.8% (+5.8%)

DISTRICT 11 (Brentwood, Pacific Palisades, Venice)
Caruso    41.0% (-5.7%)
Bass       48.1% (+5.5%)

DISTRICT 12 (Chatsworth, Granada Hills, Northridge)
Caruso    52.4% (-5.3%)
Bass       31.7% (+5.1%)

DISTRICT 13 (Atwater Village, Hollywood, Silverlake)
Caruso    24.5% (-6.8%)
Bass       45.8% (+7.0%)

DISTRICT 14 (Boyle Heights, Downtown Los Angeles, Eagle Rock)
Caruso    26.1% (-6.1%)
Bass       39.6% (+7.7%)

DISTRICT 15 (San Pedro, Watts)
Caruso    43.3%   (-4.0%)
Bass       32.0% (+5.0%)



https://content.lavote.gov/docs/rrcc/svc/4269_final_svc_citycouncil_zbc.pdf?v=2

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1543761954233204737
Primary results make it look like a giant uphill climb for Caruso, between right and left leaning candidates the left leaning candidates got about 60% of the vote. Caruo's only hope is to aggressively pursue Latino voters which he won in the primary but I'm sure most Latino voters who voted for KDL will go to Bass.
https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1543695711509680129

[ottermax]

Looks like it was a really strong performance from the left in LA this primary. I am curious how the other council races will play out in the fall.

[Canis]

Looks like it was a really strong performance from the left in LA this primary. I am curious how the other council races will play out in the fall.

I am as well. I think Hugo will likely win in 13 thankfully. But 15 and 11 are guaranteed to be close I really hope Erin Darling and Danielle pull it off so the reactionaries cannot claim victory thief

[NewYorkExpress]

We've got a poll of the closely watched Los Angeles County Sheriff's race from UC Berkeley.

Retired Long Beach Police Chief Robert Luna has an early edge over incumbent Alex Villanueva in the runoff for Los Angeles County sheriff, with support for the candidates falling largely along political lines, according to a new poll by UC Berkeley co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

Luna is favored strongly by liberals and Democrats, with 46% of voters who identify as strongly liberal saying they’d choose him and only 7% supporting Villanueva.

The sheriff, meanwhile, is more popular among conservative and Republican voters: 54% of voters who described themselves as strongly conservative said they’d vote to re-elect Villanueva if the election were held today. Only 13% said they’d select Luna.

“The question then, is where would you rather be?” said Mark DiCamillo, who directed the poll for Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and has been surveying California voters for decades.

“In L.A. County, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 3 to 1. Villanueva is not doing well among that huge constituency. That’s why I think in the early stages here, he’s got some problems.”

Overall, 31% of L.A. County voters support Luna, while 27% support Villanueva, poll results show.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I hope the LA Times ordered a poll for the Mayoral race. Outside of Biden/Harris endorsing Bass earlier this month, that race has been dead quiet since the primary.

[Canis]

I hope the LA Times ordered a poll for the Mayoral race. Outside of Biden/Harris endorsing Bass earlier this month, that race has been dead quiet since the primary.

Caruso is saving his money for a big ad blitz next month and October and Bass is husbanding her resources and doing outreach to voters who supported Gina Alex and KDL.

Though some have been angry with her spending limited amounts of time at these listening events her campaign has been set up, People were most angered when Bass issued her support of the expansion of 41.18 which caused city hall to be shut down when the council voted on it by protestors.
https://twitter.com/KateCagle/status/1557461065214021633
Many in Gina's camp have been advocating voters to leave the mayors race blank or write in Gina if Karen doesn't Reverse her position on the issue.

Also, Caruso was endorsed by corrupt and recently defeated city councilman Gil Cedillo who lost a close race to left-wing Challenger Euniess in the June Primary despite Gil being endorsed by Bernie. (Though Bernie only endorsed him to return the favor of Gil being the only city councilman to back him in 2016 and 2020 many activists and former Bernie staff begged Bernie to recind his endorsement and he ignored it)https://twitter.com/RickCarusoLA/status/1558196765760917511
I doubt this endorsement will have much impact especially because of Gil's recent Defeat.

Karen was endorsed by some local west valley Dems last week City Councilman Bob Blummenfield, State Senator Henry Stern, and Congressman Brad Sherman. Caruso ran it up in the West Valley in the primary these endorsements will have little impact but it shows the local dem machine is fully behind Karen at this point https://twitter.com/HenrySternCA/status/1560752862879256576

[NewYorkExpress]

UC Berkeley has released a poll of the Mayor's race.

Rep. Karen Bass has built a double-digit lead in the Los Angeles mayor’s race with a little over two months to go until election day, firming up her base among the city’s Democratic voters and eroding Rick Caruso’s margin in the San Fernando Valley, a new poll shows.

Since beating Caruso in the June primary by 7 points, Bass has widened her advantage over the businessman to 43%-31%, with 24% undecided, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

Bass has consolidated support among liberal and Democratic voters, picking up the lion’s share of those who went for other candidates in the primary. She leads Caruso by nearly 2 to 1 among former supporters of Councilmember Kevin de León, who came in third in the primary, and wins overwhelmingly among backers of Gina Viola, the progressive activist who came in fourth.



Bass has also significantly narrowed the lead Caruso enjoyed in the Valley, the one region of the city the businessman won in the primary. The Valley accounted for 38% of ballots cast in the primary, and he won there by 7.5 percentage points. Now he’s up by just 2 points, according to the poll.

[Progressive Pessimist]

UC Berkeley has released a poll of the Mayor's race.

Rep. Karen Bass has built a double-digit lead in the Los Angeles mayor’s race with a little over two months to go until election day, firming up her base among the city’s Democratic voters and eroding Rick Caruso’s margin in the San Fernando Valley, a new poll shows.

Since beating Caruso in the June primary by 7 points, Bass has widened her advantage over the businessman to 43%-31%, with 24% undecided, according to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

Bass has consolidated support among liberal and Democratic voters, picking up the lion’s share of those who went for other candidates in the primary. She leads Caruso by nearly 2 to 1 among former supporters of Councilmember Kevin de León, who came in third in the primary, and wins overwhelmingly among backers of Gina Viola, the progressive activist who came in fourth.



Bass has also significantly narrowed the lead Caruso enjoyed in the Valley, the one region of the city the businessman won in the primary. The Valley accounted for 38% of ballots cast in the primary, and he won there by 7.5 percentage points. Now he’s up by just 2 points, according to the poll.

That's a bit of a relief right there. Hopefully it stays this way or gets better.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It really feels like the air has been let out of the balloon in regards to Caruso.

Before the primary, I noted that he hadn't cracked the mid-30s ceiling in polling and I'm still pretty confident that he's not gonna eclipse that in November. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up getting around the same 36% he got in the primary.

[Canis]

This threads been quite for a while
Bass has extended her lead in the polls until recently with Caruso's ad wave bombing has begun and the race has tightened up.
Caruso's also sent out ads attacking her for the Scientology speech and USC bribery scandal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G14hewuMBFo&ab_channel=FOX11LosAngeles
However Bass has returned fire with ads about Caruso covering up sexual assault during his time as a Trustee for USC.
https://twitter.com/KarenBassLA/status/1578179874828603392
Their was a debate tonight and Bass took Caruso down.

In other LA city news Kenneth Meija has essentially locked up his race for city controller with the endorsements of Stephanie Clements and J. Carolan O'Gabhann
https://twitter.com/kennethmejiaLA/status/1575551047233200128
Koretz's campaign is still desperately attacking Kenneth with new billboards to counter Kenneth's with his previous statements about Biden and the Police and no mention of Koretz lol. Most recently a new TV ad comparing Kenneth to Jan 6th Rioters
https://twitter.com/UnrigLA/status/1577719016272994304

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I really hope Meijia pulls it out. I’d love to see him Tim stateside or even for governor one day.

[Canis]

I really hope Meijia pulls it out. I’d love to see him Tim stateside or even for governor one day.

Me too hes really charismatic and a very good dude with a good heart. Rick Cole compared him to Bobby Kennedy for a reason he could even run for president down the line.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I really hope Meijia pulls it out. I’d love to see him Tim stateside or even for governor one day.

Me too hes really charismatic and a very good dude with a good heart. Rick Cole compared him to Bobby Kennedy for a reason he could even run for president down the line.

What would be the best move after Controller? Governor or another statewide office?

[Canis]

I really hope Meijia pulls it out. I’d love to see him Tim stateside or even for governor one day.

Me too hes really charismatic and a very good dude with a good heart. Rick Cole compared him to Bobby Kennedy for a reason he could even run for president down the line.

What would be the best move after Controller? Governor or another statewide office?

Maybe state controller or treasurer and then Gov.

[SevenEleven]

Who else here is not surprised that Kevin de Leon has outed himself as a racist POS?

[coloradocowboi]

Who else here is not surprised that Kevin de Leon has outed himself as a racist POS?

He and Martinez need to resign now. Absolutely disgraceful.

[wbrocks67]

Who else here is not surprised that Kevin de Leon has outed himself as a racist POS?

He and Martinez need to resign now. Absolutely disgraceful.

Yeah, I don't see how these two continue on at this point.

[Not Me, Us]

Who else here is not surprised that Kevin de Leon has outed himself as a racist POS?

https://knock-la.com/nury-martinez-city-council-president-leaked-racist-audio/

A link to an article with audio clips for anyone who's unaware. This stuff is unbelievably bad, cartoonishly so. I regret supporting De Leon for Senate in 2018, this is completely disqualifying for any public official.

[Canis]

Who else here is not surprised that Kevin de Leon has outed himself as a racist POS?

https://knock-la.com/nury-martinez-city-council-president-leaked-racist-audio/

A link to an article with audio clips for anyone who's unaware. This stuff is unbelievably bad, cartoonishly so. I regret supporting De Leon for Senate in 2018, this is completely disqualifying for any public official.

This audio proved everything I knew about la city politics but couldn't prove correct. During redistricting last year I was on a city council campaign and we saw how renter populations were targeted and packed and cracked to weaken their voting power and we fought it as best we could with our limited resources. In the audio, they openly discuss doing this as well as weakening African Americans voting power while making fun of a council person's black son. As well as creating districts for people to run in and win and that will be loyal to them Our citys government is deeply racist and corrupt and Nury KDL and Cedillo need to resign. If not they will be recalled theirs a massive protest in city hall today. Nury announced a leave of absence an hour before the meeting to avoid the heat like a coward.

[coloradocowboi]

Who else here is not surprised that Kevin de Leon has outed himself as a racist POS?

https://knock-la.com/nury-martinez-city-council-president-leaked-racist-audio/

A link to an article with audio clips for anyone who's unaware. This stuff is unbelievably bad, cartoonishly so. I regret supporting De Leon for Senate in 2018, this is completely disqualifying for any public official.

This audio proved everything I knew about la city politics but couldn't prove correct. During redistricting last year I was on a city council campaign and we saw how renter populations were targeted and packed and cracked to weaken their voting power and we fought it as best we could with our limited resources. In the audio, they openly discuss doing this as well as weakening African Americans voting power while making fun of a council person's black son. As well as creating districts for people to run in and win and that will be loyal to them Our citys government is deeply racist and corrupt and Nury KDL and Cedillo need to resign. If not they will be recalled theirs a massive protest in city hall today. Nury announced a leave of absence an hour before the meeting to avoid the heat like a coward.

I was just over there. It's just really sad.

I'm watching live rn. O'Farrell is a crook like the other three, but he is playing this moment beautifully.

He just announced support for expanding the City Council, which is a rly big deal... and would almost guarantee his comeback when he loses re-election to Hugo Soto-Martinez this November.

He also just announced that Nury, Kevin, and Gil should resign, which is the death knell and maybe also a revitalization moment for his own campaign.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/ib2_real/status/1579933930106458112

Who else here is not surprised that Kevin de Leon has outed himself as a racist POS?

https://knock-la.com/nury-martinez-city-council-president-leaked-racist-audio/

A link to an article with audio clips for anyone who's unaware. This stuff is unbelievably bad, cartoonishly so. I regret supporting De Leon for Senate in 2018, this is completely disqualifying for any public official.

This audio proved everything I knew about la city politics but couldn't prove correct. During redistricting last year I was on a city council campaign and we saw how renter populations were targeted and packed and cracked to weaken their voting power and we fought it as best we could with our limited resources. In the audio, they openly discuss doing this as well as weakening African Americans voting power while making fun of a council person's black son. As well as creating districts for people to run in and win and that will be loyal to them Our citys government is deeply racist and corrupt and Nury KDL and Cedillo need to resign. If not they will be recalled theirs a massive protest in city hall today. Nury announced a leave of absence an hour before the meeting to avoid the heat like a coward.

I was just over there. It's just really sad.

I'm watching live rn. O'Farrell is a crook like the other three, but he is playing this moment beautifully.

He just announced support for expanding the City Council, which is a rly big deal... and would almost guarantee his comeback when he loses re-election to Hugo Soto-Martinez this November.

He also just announced that Nury, Kevin, and Gil should resign, which is the death knell and maybe also a revitalization moment for his own campaign.

I don't think it will revitalize his campaign every la politician including Villanueva and Caruso has called on their resignation at this point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRlnk0xgP_c&ab_channel=ABC7
https://twitter.com/ib2_real/status/1579919924729851904
Mike Bonin and Isaac Bryans speeches were amazing btw and definitely worth a watch

[NewYorkExpress]

Caruso under fire for claiming he's not White because he's Italian.

Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso insisted he's not white, but really Italian — and thus "Latin" — during an awkward debate moment Tuesday in the nation's second-largest city.

The billionaire real estate developer Caruso is facing off against U.S. Rep. Karen Bass, a Democrat seeking to become the city's first Black woman mayor.

Next month's election comes in the wake of the L.A. City Council President Nury Martinez resigned from her position Wednesday after an audio recording of her making racist remarks surfaced.


In bringing up the ongoing scandal, Telemundo anchor Dunia Elvir stated: “The next mayor of Los Angeles will be either an African-American woman or a white man."

“I’m Italian,” Caruso interjected.

Elvir responded, “Italian American," as Caruso insisted that his racial identification be stated on his terms.

“That’s Latin, thank you,” Caruso said.

This has gotten panned on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/aretana/status/1580019103040823296

https://twitter.com/Pappiness/status/1580039939026083840