Ontario Election 2022

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Paul Miller will run as an independent in Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, wonder if this will split the vote at all.

Would be very surprising if he polled well enough for it to matter afaict.

[DL]

Paul Miller will run as an independent in Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, wonder if this will split the vote at all.

There have been a number of cases of MPPs or MPs being dumped by their party and then running as an independent. In that vast, vast majority of cases they get a couple of hundred votes and learn the hard way that 99% of the people who voted for them in the past only voted for them because of the party they represented and their personal vote was negligible.

Once in a blue moon you get an exception like in the case of Judy Wilson-Raybouldt. But those cases are very rare   

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Paul Miller will run as an independent in Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, wonder if this will split the vote at all.

Would be very surprising if he polled well enough for it to matter afaict.

The riding voted NDP by a 22 point margin over the Tories in 2018. It's a competitive riding on the federal level, but the provincial NDP is more popular generally across Ontario and especially in Hamilton. Even if Miller gets 10% of the vote (and not all of these would have otherwise voted NDP), it's still a major uphill battle for anyone to flip.

Put it this way: if the NDP's numbers in HE-SC are low enough for an independent vote splitter to make a difference, they're absolutely screwed.

[King of Kensington]

Hard to say what will happen in this election - none of the leaders are particularly liked or are inspiring Ontarians.  Most likely NDP ends up in third though.

[DL]

Hard to say what will happen in this election - none of the leaders are particularly liked or are inspiring Ontarians.  Most likely NDP ends up in third though.

I'm pretty sure the Liberals will come in third. The NDP has 36 incumbents running for re-election, the Liberals have 5. the NDP has something like triple the money that the Liberals have. Also, Liberal candidate recruitment has been very unimpressive. If they are to have any hope at all of making a comeback and overtaking the NDP they need to reclaim the three downtown Toronto seats they lost in 2018 - and in all three: University-Rosedale, Toronto Centre and Spadina-Fort York the Liberals are running totally unknown people with no name recognition of any kind

To the extent that people are saying they would vote fore the Ontario Liberals in any polls - its because they think they are voting for Justin Trudeau. The moment people see Steven Del Duca on a stage their vote will collapse. He has totally devoid of any appeal and as much as i hate to dwell on physical appearances - the guy is incredibly ugly and has a weird facial twitch that will be a major turn off.

[King of Kensington]

NDP really screwed up in Ajax, arguably the most winnable non-Brampton/Oshawa 905 suburb.

[DL]

NDP really screwed up in Ajax, arguably the most winnable non-Brampton/Oshawa 905 suburb.

I agree, but you can point to at least one riding where each party has "screwed up". I doubt very much that Ajax will be the difference between the NDP coming in second or third - or for that matter be the difference between the PC majority or hung legislature

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

NDP really screwed up in Ajax, arguably the most winnable non-Brampton/Oshawa 905 suburb.

What happened in Ajax?

[King of Kensington]

Looks like NDP ahead of Liberals probably entails a PC majority and disastrous Liberal campaign, NDP could end up ahead of Libs in seat count but with fewer seats.  

Trying to imagine minority situation with NDP ahead of Liberals.  That would mean NDP more or less holds it own while Liberals take away suburban PC seats.  But I can't really foresee a situation where an increase in Liberal vote share only hurts the Tories.

[DL]

I could see the following scenario - week one of the campaign people see Del Duca in living colour and turn up their noses at him like a cat being served a flavour of cat food it doesn't like. Then polls come out showing the Liberals firmly in third place it becomes clear that the NDP is the main opposition to the PCs - that accelerates the flow of "promiscuous progressives" to the NDP.

Obviously if the PCs are over 40% in the popular vote they will win a majority no matter what. But if they are down in the 35-36 range and the NDP is low 30s and the Liberals are low 20s...I got see the Liberals winning back some upscale exurban seats from the PCs like Oakville or Burlington or Vaughan-Woodbridge (where del Duca will run) and if the NDP has a good campaign they could win some seats where they were very close in 2018 and get the PCs under 65 seats. So I could see a scenario where the PCs get 60 seats, the NDP 45 and the Liberals 20 or so. The Liberal vote is very inefficient in Ontario so even if the Liberal and NDP had identical vote shares (which they won't), the NDP would likely get more seats. I think back to the 2011 federal election when the NDP and Liberals each had 25% of the vote in Ontario and that yielded 22 NDP seats and 11 Liberal seats

I just find it hard to see the Ontario Liberals gaining much ground when they are flat broke, have a repulsive leader and a conspicuous lack of "star candidates". Who knows maybe I'm wrong and Del Duca-mania will sweep the province, but I doubt it.

[adma]

NDP really screwed up in Ajax, arguably the most winnable non-Brampton/Oshawa 905 suburb.

What happened in Ajax?

https://www.durhamradionews.com/archives/150460

[adma]

Paul Miller will run as an independent in Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, wonder if this will split the vote at all.

Would be very surprising if he polled well enough for it to matter afaict.

The riding voted NDP by a 22 point margin over the Tories in 2018. It's a competitive riding on the federal level, but the provincial NDP is more popular generally across Ontario and especially in Hamilton. Even if Miller gets 10% of the vote (and not all of these would have otherwise voted NDP), it's still a major uphill battle for anyone to flip.

Put it this way: if the NDP's numbers in HE-SC are low enough for an independent vote splitter to make a difference, they're absolutely screwed.

Actually, I'm seriously wondering if the vote split gives the *Tories* a chance in HESC--remember that the just-plain-Stoney-Creek seat went Harris Tory in '99, and the demos of Hamilton East aren't un-amenable to Obama/Trump dynamics; that is, vulnerable in the same way that seats like Oshawa and Essex and Niagara Centre are vulnerable.

Indeed, maybe we *should* start considering the possibility that for all of Doug Ford's "loathsomeness", the Cons *might* be poised to *build* on their caucus, yea, even at the expense of the NDP.  In which case, I might look not just at Oshawa/Essex/Niagara Centre (or HESC), but...

--Windsor-Tecumseh: open seat, reports that NDP "under-nominated" and the Tories are playing to win--though we've been hearing buzz about Cons being potentially provincially competitive in urban Windsor for ages and it's never concretely come to pass; still, in a "Red Wall Labour breakdown" age, we ought to be prepared.

--The other Niagara seats, likewise for Obama/Trump or Labour/Leave reasons--though Wayne Gates in NF seems formidable, but if *he* retired, etc.  And St Kitts in a post-Jim Bradley era, if the ONDP's still perceived to be "waning" relative to '18 and the Libs still not ready for prime time...

--At least 2 if not all 3 of the Brampton NDP seats, in case '18 is viewed as an anomaly

--*Maybe* a post-Wynne, Mark Saunders-guided DVW; but I'd also look to HRBC & YSW for an odd Ford-ethnoburban twist on "Red Wall Labour" logic

--And surely at least a couple of seats in the N--Thunder Bay-Atikokan; and really, who knows about Gilles Bisson in Timmins anymore (particularly as the city of Timmins has underperformed for Charlie Angus federally over time).

Of course, it doesn't mean they all *are* endangered, or even the only ones endangered--just that they're worth watching...

[King of Kensington]

The PCs are making a serious play for Timmins-James Bay.  Running the mayor of Timmins there.

[King of Kensington]

While Horwath is fairly "WWC"-amenable, she's not immune to the broader trend of the non-metropolitan working class shift to the right.  And the PCs are reorienting their politics toward blue collar populism. 

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

While Horwath is fairly "WWC"-amenable, she's not immune to the broader trend of the non-metropolitan working class shift to the right.  And the PCs are reorienting their politics toward blue collar populism. 

I don't think Ford helps the Tories in Timmin-James Bay, he's perceived as far too Toronto centered.

[adma]

While Horwath is fairly "WWC"-amenable, she's not immune to the broader trend of the non-metropolitan working class shift to the right.  And the PCs are reorienting their politics toward blue collar populism. 

I don't think Ford helps the Tories in Timmin-James Bay, he's perceived as far too Toronto centered.

Actually, the danger is more in the *NDP* being seen as "far too Toronto centered"--by comparison, Ford populism has a certain cross-provincial "universality" about it.  And besides, his form of "Toronto centered", whether through cutting city council in half or plowing through with half-baked and potentially destructive schemes for Ontario Place and the Ontario Line, is more a form of suburban-yahoo "sticking it to the lefties and urban elites".  And those out in the hinterland appreciate that kind of "sticking it".  Plus, there's the matter of broader hinterland rightward trending, as evidenced by Charlie Angus's weak federal share last time and the surprisingly strong PPC share in TJB--and furthermore, provincially speaking, thanks to the "splicing-out" of the far-north ridings this is no longer TJB, but just plain Timmins, so there's no longer a reserve vote to counteract rightward tendencies...

[King of Kensington]

Plus, there's the matter of broader hinterland rightward trending, as evidenced by Charlie Angus's weak federal share last time and the surprisingly strong PPC share in TJB--and furthermore, provincially speaking, thanks to the "splicing-out" of the far-north ridings this is no longer TJB, but just plain Timmins, so there's no longer a reserve vote to counteract rightward tendencies...

Forgot about that.  That makes Timmins much more winnable for the PCs.

[King of Kensington]

If the NDP is going to make gains, they'll have to take votes from PCs.  It seems like "rust belt" Ontario is going the other way.  And in the GTA they'll need to appeal to "Ford Liberals" - who seem more likely to go Liberal if they abandon Ford.  A difficult situation.   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Politicians have agency and it is their job to try to understand society and to try to use that knowledge to build support for their parties and for their policies.* If they aren't capable of at least trying to do that, if they would rather raise their hands up in surrender and bewail how hard it is to push against 'trends' beyond their control, then they were lousy politicians anyway and not worth crying over.

_{*Whatever else you can say of the Ford Brothers, they have been very good at doing that - are multi-ethnic industrial suburbs and sink estates natural territory for conservative politics? Certainly not, and yet just look.}

[toaster]

Plus, there's the matter of broader hinterland rightward trending, as evidenced by Charlie Angus's weak federal share last time and the surprisingly strong PPC share in TJB--and furthermore, provincially speaking, thanks to the "splicing-out" of the far-north ridings this is no longer TJB, but just plain Timmins, so there's no longer a reserve vote to counteract rightward tendencies...

Forgot about that.  That makes Timmins much more winnable for the PCs.

Bisson and Angus are not comparable.  Angus doesn't even live in Timmins-James Bay, is not Francophone either. Liberals tend to do better in Timmins proper federally (in the western and Northern portions of the City of Timmins), but both those areas tend to vote for Bisson provincially. Also, the anglophones in Timmins tend to be white-ethnics (large Italian, Irish populations), who historically voted Liberal as well. The demographics aren't there for a PC win: Francophone + Union Town + White Ethnics = Lib/NDP. The PCs nominated Timmins Mayor, but he is in his first term as mayor (and has no other elected experience prior), not as well-liked in the City as people may think. The only thing here that makes it an "easy" riding to flip is how small of a riding it is (40k) in a small geographic area (Timmins boundaries), makes it maybe the easiest riding to campaign in.

[King of Kensington]

I have no idea if it's "easy" but I do think the PCs are seriously targeting Timmins.  Also Ford has no problem at all with "white ethnics."

[King of Kensington]

Politicians have agency and it is their job to try to understand society and to try to use that knowledge to build support for their parties and for their policies.* If they aren't capable of at least trying to do that, if they would rather raise their hands up in surrender and bewail how hard it is to push against 'trends' beyond their control, then they were lousy politicians anyway and not worth crying over.

_{*Whatever else you can say of the Ford Brothers, they have been very good at doing that - are multi-ethnic industrial suburbs and sink estates natural territory for conservative politics? Certainly not, and yet just look.}

Yup, the Fords have developed a populist conservatism that works in Ontario. 

[adma]

I have no idea if it's "easy" but I do think the PCs are seriously targeting Timmins.  Also Ford has no problem at all with "white ethnics."

Plus, even in a place like Timmins, Lib-leaning/NDP-conditional "white ethnics" don't necessarily have a problem defaulting their votes w/the Tories if they see the Libs as not a viable option--which given the present state of the OLP, is a likelihood not to be discounted, like 2018 all over again...

[King of Kensington]

Re: "white ethnics" Italian Canadians are one of the most pro-Ford demographics around.  Del Duca winning Woodbridge isn't even a guarantee - though it helps that the current MPP hasn't exactly distinguished himself and he gets a leadership boost he didn't have before.  And hard to see King-Vaughan with its high income Italian demographic fall given Stephen Lecce's profile and that it went Conservative in the last federal election (with a bit of an assist from Russian Jews).  It's not your "Brahmin-liberal" demographic.

(Of course York Region is radically different from Northern Ontario).

[adma]

Politicians have agency and it is their job to try to understand society and to try to use that knowledge to build support for their parties and for their policies.* If they aren't capable of at least trying to do that, if they would rather raise their hands up in surrender and bewail how hard it is to push against 'trends' beyond their control, then they were lousy politicians anyway and not worth crying over.

_{*Whatever else you can say of the Ford Brothers, they have been very good at doing that - are multi-ethnic industrial suburbs and sink estates natural territory for conservative politics? Certainly not, and yet just look.}

As was the Fords, so was Jack Layton, relative to Quebec in 2011.

In that light, if the ONDP had that kind of fire in their belly, simply on grounds of 2018 precedent they'd be viewing Ajax as targetable/winnable even in the absence of Steve Parish.