Ontario Election 2022

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Durham, Halton, Peel and York are Toronto's "collar counties."

Aren't the collar counties very white?

Definitely much more so than the four "collar regions" of the GTA, but race isn't as much of a decisive factor in OnPoli.

And keep in mind, too, that some of the most Conservative parts are also the most ethno-racialized--especially the Jewish and Chinese element in York Region...

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On the left the battle seems to be between between the OLP's credibility as a traditional governing party despite perceived corruption, incompetence and a lack of grassroots support or fundraising and the NDP's actual status as the opposition despite Horwath failing to even come close when conditions were much more favourable last time. Of course the OLP doesn't exactly have strong leadership either, and the end result of this stoppable force meeting a movable object is a statistical tie, the only scenario that could give Ford a second term with less than 35% of the vote.

Considering how Horwath got 33.59% vs Ford's 40.50% and earned 40 seats (the most for *any* official opposition party in modern times, save the '85 dead-heat), "failing to even come close" is a bit of an overstatement, particularly for a hitherto perennial-3rd party (save fleeting intervals in 43/45/75/87/90) with the lingering stigma of the Rae years and without big corporate donors or a galvanized MSM machine behind it.  However, the ONDP *still* doesn't have big corporate donors or a galvanized MSM machine behind it (all of that is still hardwired t/w the Libs); plus, Doug Ford's gaslighting tendencies haven't given the ONDP the official opposition profile or oxygen necessary--thus the various signals that Team Horwath might be reverting to 3rd-party form.  (And as for the Libs, the perceived corruption/incompetence as anything terminally fatal was basically a hyped-up '18 thing.  But they still have the infrastructure of their federal siblings as backup, in case their present lack of official party status is crippling in and of itself.)

In fact, the way she's positioned, I'd argue that Horwath is at least as much of a to-be-watched sleeper factor in '22 as she was in '18--and she's always been more broadly "attractive" and "popular" among the electorate than naysayers (who almost invariably tend to be male) would have it.  But again: her party's always had that "infrastructure problem".  (I remember, surprisingly close to e-day, venturing into ridings like Scarborough Centre where the NDP finished a very competitive 2nd, and seeing nothing but Liberal and PC signage on the main streets as if the old status quo still held.)

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Angus Reid has the ONDP ahead today

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022.01.20_provincial_politics_vote.pdf

36% NDP, 33% PCO, 19% LIB
These 3 leaders are so unlikeable. If I had to choose one to "have a drink with" it would probably be Ford, even though I disagree with him on almost everything.  Del Duca is so unlikeable, unattractive (I think this does matter), not to mention the pool-gate and Kirby GO stuff, people won't embrace him.  Andrea needs to lay down on the angry yelling in Queens park.  Not every issue needs to be a yelling/screaming thing.  I'll probably vote for Schreiner.  I wish we could have PEI type politics, kind, respectful, people who happen to disagree, instead of this vile kind of mudslinging that has become Ontario politics.

This is really going to be the "lesser of 3 evils" type of election.

To repeat: while she isn't a bundle of electrifying charisma the way that Le Bon Jack was federally, Andrea's not nearly the party liability that naysayers claim her to be.  And a lot of her present "angry yelling" impression has to do with her working against a gaslighting, nails-on-chalkboard-labelling stacked deck in the form of Doug Ford.

Once again:  she's always been more broadly "attractive" and "popular" among the electorate than naysayers (who almost invariably tend to be male) would have it.  (And of course, said almost-invariably-male naysayers put off by her "shrillness"--yeah, the same old "shrill woman" electoral pigeonhole--very often like to declare their "principled" support for conveniently-male Mike Schreiner instead.  Who isn't exactly any more Mr. Charisma, except to political nerds.  And I know, because I witnessed them declaring such intent in '18 as well, and would probably spin Schreiner winning his own seat as being more of a political victory than the shrill-Andrea wave landing the NDP in a wet dream of a solid official opposition position but Still Not Winning).

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I think the fact that she's been around for ages has worsened her appeal. For better or worse, Canadians are used to seeing frequent changes in leadership (unless the leader is a premier/PM), and Horwath's star seems to have burned out after 2018.

Though I'd argue that some of the burnout is an induced condition thanks to Doug Ford--hate to say it, but as opposition leader, she's a gift to a bully-boy leader like the Premier, someone he can gaslight and treat condescendingly to no end because he won and she lost, so there, nyaah.  No parliamentary oxygen to you, loser with the "nails on chalkboard" voice.  So the NDP's been reduced to bark-bark-barking like Barnyard Dawg while Foghorn Leghorn Ford sits comfortably on his side of the "Rope Limit" sign.

Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

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Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

Do you think she'll get another writ period though? She's been NDP leader for nearly 13 years now and 2022 will be her fourth election, and that kind of leadership longevity is very rare, even by NDP standards. Unless the NDP wins this election (or forms government with some deal with the Liberals), it's hard to imagine her getting a fifth kick at the can.

By "next", I mean "this", i.e. 2022, as opposed to 2026 (or earlier).

And of course, the *other* factor that could give oxygen to the so-called "split" NDP/Lib opposition: a split in the *right*, in case forces like Randy Hillier's Ontario First gain momentum...

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Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

Do you think she'll get another writ period though? She's been NDP leader for nearly 13 years now and 2022 will be her fourth election, and that kind of leadership longevity is very rare, even by NDP standards. Unless the NDP wins this election (or forms government with some deal with the Liberals), it's hard to imagine her getting a fifth kick at the can.

By "next", I mean "this", i.e. 2022, as opposed to 2026 (or earlier).

And of course, the *other* factor that could give oxygen to the so-called "split" NDP/Lib opposition: a split in the *right*, in case forces like Randy Hillier's Ontario First gain momentum...

Possibly, but but the right-of-Tories is significantly more divided in Ontario, than they were federally. Instead of the right wing criticism of the Tories uniting around the PPC with a couple sideshows, we have three squabbling pygmies duking it out. I have a hard time seeing someone break out of that mess to challenge Ford.

Perhaps, but there's a reason why I singled out Hillier among the bunch--essentially, he's already by far the most familiar and galvanizing provincial PPC-proxy figurehead.  The Sloan & Karahalios entities are likelier to be marginal reruns of Jack MacLaren and the Trillium Party in '18.

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Yeah, I don't really see the right-of-Tories taking much oxygen out of the PCs. If the PPC is any indicator of the strength of this brand of politics, it suggests that any "right-of-tory" surge will happen in either:

1. Very right-wing places, particularly in rural Southwestern Ontario. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Haldimand-Norfolk are good examples where the PPC got 14% and 11% respectively, but barring some major change, these aren't places the PCs have to worry about. I guess Hillier brings Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston into this column, but again, Tory margins are high and the centre-left is not very competitive there.

2. "Left-populist" areas, like Windsor-Tecumseh, London Fanshawe, Nickel Belt, and most famously, Timmins-James Bay where not only did the PPC get 13%, but this mainly came at Charlie Angus' expense (whether this was due to lower indigenous turnout, etc, that is to be seen after the poll-by-polls come out). In any case, these are places that the Tories need not worry about.

And those two sort of intersect when it comes to a Chatham-Kent-Leamington type of seat--someplace where the "Horwath Democrats" made significant inroads in '14 vs Tim Hudak's tin-eared 2nd run, only to see dreams of taking-it-all trashed in '18.  That is, how much is it in fact '14-style Horwath populism that's poised to be hollowed out by the fringe right?  (And that goes even more so for the neighbouring, newly-open NDP seat of Essex).

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I'm not sure what the knock against Horwath is. I mostly hear complaints about her from NDP members. I think she is actually a lot more popular with voters than she is with members of her own party. The people within the NDP who don't like her seem to fall into two slightly overlapping categories:

1) Highly educated party members from downtown Toronto - the types who like to think of themselves as "activists" and who are often "professors of social work" or who are members of think tanks etc... they have never been comfortable with Horwath largely for reasons of social class. She is from Hamilton and is from a very working class background and the self-styled "smart people" in the NDP tend to be more middle/upper middle class and they find her a bit too "common"

IOW those who would have chosen Tabuns over Horwath for the leadership in '09, or Lankin over Hampton in '96.

2) People from the very small but very vocal lunatic fringe far left who can't forgive her for not being some sort of female Canadian version of Jeremy Corbyn.

At times like this, one wishes somebody like Peter Kormos were still with us to bridge the gap btw/the fringe left, Horwath, and even Ford Nation.

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Essex will be a weird one. PCs seem to have the advantage because Natyshak is leaving, it voted CPC federally twice, and the margin was small in 2018. But this is a fringe-right-friendly kind of place, so a lot of it will depend on whether they primarily split the right (thus helping the NDP), or primarily split the populist bloc (thus helping the PCs, who have governed in basically a mainstream Conservative way despite Ford's early reputation). My hunch is that, in a place like Essex, this might benefit the NDP more. Unlike C-K-L where the NDP still saw an increase in 2018 at the Liberals' expense, in Essex, the NDP lost quite a bit of support to the PCs. This seems to suggest that there is a larger constituency of these "Horwath 2014-Ford 2018" voters who go for the most populist option, and saw Ford as that guy. Ford has largely been a disappointment to these voters, having governed in a more "GTA Conservative" manner, which is more true to the PC Party's constituency and ideology than the rhetorical populism of 2018. So I think Essex might stay NDP if they can get past or near 30% - if the NDP finishes in the mid-20s or below, they're not winning here.

"Mid-20s or below" would be sinking to Howard Hampton-era levels--under the present leadership circumstance, even 30% would count as sore underperformance.

But the real question is: how much Tory-*to*-NDP swing vote is there remaining?  In our time of Obama/Trump or the UK Red Wall being breached, something feels strangely terminal for the NDP's "attractiveness" to that populist crowd; but who knows...

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Essex will be a weird one. PCs seem to have the advantage because Natyshak is leaving, it voted CPC federally twice, and the margin was small in 2018. But this is a fringe-right-friendly kind of place, so a lot of it will depend on whether they primarily split the right (thus helping the NDP), or primarily split the populist bloc (thus helping the PCs, who have governed in basically a mainstream Conservative way despite Ford's early reputation). My hunch is that, in a place like Essex, this might benefit the NDP more. Unlike C-K-L where the NDP still saw an increase in 2018 at the Liberals' expense, in Essex, the NDP lost quite a bit of support to the PCs. This seems to suggest that there is a larger constituency of these "Horwath 2014-Ford 2018" voters who go for the most populist option, and saw Ford as that guy. Ford has largely been a disappointment to these voters, having governed in a more "GTA Conservative" manner, which is more true to the PC Party's constituency and ideology than the rhetorical populism of 2018. So I think Essex might stay NDP if they can get past or near 30% - if the NDP finishes in the mid-20s or below, they're not winning here.

"Mid-20s or below" would be sinking to Howard Hampton-era levels--under the present leadership circumstance, even 30% would count as sore underperformance.

Mid-20s or below would not be "Howard Hampton levels", that's essentially how Horwath did in 2011 and 2014, and Hampton never crossed 20%. Based on the current polls at least, the NDP is averaging in the mid-20s, and 30% would not be an underperformance - according to every pollster other than Angus Reid, it would actually be an overperformance. Now I think we both subscribe to the theory that the NDP will end up outperforming current polls once the campaign kicks off, because the Ontario Liberals are much weaker than the Liberal brand, but that's just speculation, we don't really know.

I was referriing to mid-20s and below in *Essex*, not province-wide, i.e. I misconstrued your point (though yes, the idea of winning w/only 30% of the vote *is* a bit out-in-left-field, even w/all the opposition splits on the right imaginable)

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Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

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Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

anti-lockdown sentiment is starting to spread beyond the far-right, especially now that almost everyone is vaccinated and rhetoric has increasingly become that vaccine passes will be require boosters.

Agreed. Plenty of normal youngish people who aren't anyone's idea of "far right" are increasingly irritated with the status quo. They might not be protesting, but they're increasingly rolling their eyes at the latest round of restrictions or ignoring them outright. In my province, we're supposed to keep our social group to a consistent group of ten. Does anyone seriously believe most of the kids at Dalhousie University are actually sticking to a ten person bubble? I know I don't.

Applying that to the election, there's a risk to the progressive parties if their rhetoric on the biggest issue of the day is out of step with a large portion of their base. That's not a prediction of realignment or a far-right surge, but it might hurt their chances of getting the youth turnout needed to defeat Ford.

But *that* kind of normal-youngish cohort might be the sort that might as well have *already* been in the Ford PC camp in '18, or part of Ford Nation at any time before that.  The party-party TikTokkers  who grew up in McMansions, IOW.

Otherwise: sure, there's young folk irritated at said "status quo".  But then they look the other way at such things as the Freedom Convoy and those who participate in the same, and if they are in *any* way at all thoughtful or culturally astute, realize how fellow travellers like that poison the anti-status-quo well.  And it'd be *that* which they'd be impelled to vote against, if they're impelled to vote progressive at all...

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Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

anti-lockdown sentiment is starting to spread beyond the far-right, especially now that almost everyone is vaccinated and rhetoric has increasingly become that vaccine passes will be require boosters.

Agreed. Plenty of normal youngish people who aren't anyone's idea of "far right" are increasingly irritated with the status quo. They might not be protesting, but they're increasingly rolling their eyes at the latest round of restrictions or ignoring them outright. In my province, we're supposed to keep our social group to a consistent group of ten. Does anyone seriously believe most of the kids at Dalhousie University are actually sticking to a ten person bubble? I know I don't.

Applying that to the election, there's a risk to the progressive parties if their rhetoric on the biggest issue of the day is out of step with a large portion of their base. That's not a prediction of realignment or a far-right surge, but it might hurt their chances of getting the youth turnout needed to defeat Ford.

Absolutely.  Things like restaurant closures or theatre closures hurt young people most in jobs.  And likewise 2 years seems like a lot longer when young than old and if young chances of getting really sick or dying of COVID-19 much lower than when older.  Still risk, but usually when younger, you tend to feel invincible, especially amongst young males.

On young people and restrictions, two recent examples are FDP in Germany and Liberal Initiative in Portugal.  Both classical liberal and latter more libertarian and their support heavily skewed younger.  While FDP normally part for well to do, many younger working class voted for them just because they wanted restrictions ended.

Though when it comes to younger people and their restlessness about lockdowns, it really depends on which direction they'd seek to pass the blame--that is, especially in the case of Canada & Ontario, it's a little more complicated than simple "libertarian" restlessness w/status quo.  Or as w/the present protests, their ire could just as well be directed at the freedom-yahoos who drag the pandemic out and force the restriction issue.  IOW an irritation that's not so much migrating *beyond* the far right, as it's being directed *at* the far right.

And that's something which progressive parties can take advantage of, together w/exploiting the notion that Doug Ford's somehow bungled the lockdown issue.  Of course, at the opposite right-libertarian end, the Ontario Proud forces that swayed '18 to Ford could try and make that option once again attractive for millennial voters...

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That is not to say most young people support the libertarian Randy Hillier types of no restrictions.  Its more a lot wondering why still having them 2 years after.  Randy Hillier libertarian types wanted none from beginning.  And also a lot are fine with some restrictions like vaccine passports, masks, and even capacity limits so its not a binary choice of full lockdown or drop all rules, there is lots in between.

And again, that "lots in between" might for many be paradoxically directed more *at* the Hillier types, i.e. they know why we're still having them, and it's because of the Hillierites and Bernierites and the yahoos overrunning Ottawa this weekend.

And those who *are* still restless-but-not-far-right-restless were probably already in some way or another within the longer-term Ford-amenable camp, and the kind targeted by Jeff Ballingall & Ontario Proud in '18.  But otherwise, one'd be painting youth w/too broad a "Neil & Joni = old squares; Joe Rogan = hip and with-it" Spotifygate brush.

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Another way to look at it: the cultural infrastructure for a youth-friendly "classical liberal" political force in Ontario isn't particularly strong, or else it's been more high-minded wishful think among its proponents.  And if we're talking about FDP-type entities, the fact that we're dealing w/an FPTP electoral system doesn't help matters.  I mean, what would we be talking about at this point?  Jeff Ballingall setting up a "Post Millennial" party for the self-professed freedom-loving-but-not-far-right kiddies?  Sure, Ontario Proud's tactics worked in '18, but that was by placing the emphasis upon Wynne and downplaying its own right-of-centre connections--sort of like how it was "Labour Isn't Working" that elected Thatcher more than raw Thatcherism.  But subsequent "Prouds", national and provincial, have met with mixed success, mainly because they got a little too cocky w/their conservativism, not unlike how the "boys in short pants" wrecked Harper's chance of reelection in '15...

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I'm not sure I understand how people being frustrated with Covid related restrictions is good for Doug Ford when he is the one who has imposed all the restrictions on ontario and Ontario has had the longest strictest lockdowns of any jurisdiction in North America. the anti lockdown vote will go for rightwing fringe parties. Those people see Ford as a traitor and sell-out!

It demobilizes young left-wing voters who are fatigued by the restrictions

Young leftwing voters in Ontario have never been "mobilized" about whether or not to lockdown in the first place and in any case, barring an unknown new variant, by the time the campaign begins in late April chances are there will be very few, if any, restrictions left in Ontario

And beyond that, you cannot pigeonhole said fatigued young voters as "left-wing".  More likely, they're mushy free agents who *might* be generically *available* to the left wing w/the proper pitch.  (And the proper pitch on the left could indeed be "we're fatigued, too, and this could all be handled better than under the present regime".)

In fact, in practice, the young, *truly* left-wing voters are probably *most* mobilized, and know perfectly well why things are so rather than being lazily "restrictions suck, everything sucks, I think I won't vote".  (And given what I said about that mushy-free-agent youth vote being "available" to the provincial PCs in '18--yes, maybe it *isn't* necessarily the left of centre most affected by said fatigue.)

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I think this here supports my point, 43% of Canadians approved of the protest, including 33% of Liberals and 29% of NDP voters. There is a partisan divide on easing restrictions but not one nearly as strong as you would expect given the current rhetoric on the issue.

It could be approving of *a* protest, or at least of the easing-restrictions principle behind it; however, it's also possible that not all of those polled were fully engaged to, well, the form said protest took.  (And given the tenuous engagement a lot of people have to "deep" news media these days, I wouldn't be surprised if that number diminishes once the focus accentuates.)

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Also, the more commonly-shared Abacus stat is the "how much do you have in common with the protestors" stat, which went, re "a lot" vs "a little":  82% PPC, 57% Green, 46% Con, 25% Lib, 23% NDP, 19% Bloc.

https://abacusdata.ca/freedom-convoy-public-reaction-february-2022/

And with *that* in mind, perhaps if it were about exploiting the lockdown-restless youth demo w/a garnish of "left" about it, on paper maybe Mike Schreiner & the Greens would be well positioned to benefit in the upcoming election.  (Except that Schreiner himself is too sensible-middle to be riding the anti-vaxx conspirituality train that a lot of Green supporters do)

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Interestingly there are 4 MPPs from the class of 2018 who are not running again, one term and they are like "nope, not for me" LOL

All 4 are young and 3 are women, that does not look good for politics. 3 PCs and 1 NDPer, most in competitive ridings:
Kitchener South--Hespeler (mostly PC/ONDP, but i'd wager OLP will be in this one too), Durham (mostly PC/ONDP fight), Kingston and the Islands (probably ONDP/OLP fight), Scarborough Centre (all three parties)

So far 15 MPPs not running again; 9 PCs, 4 NDP, 1 OLP, 2 Indies (both elected PCs)

Though each of the 3 women have had chequered histories (Amy Fee due to domestic issues, Christina Mitas & Lindsey due to Covid issues)

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and now it IS 4 NDP MPPs not running again. Rima Berns-McGown has announced she will not reoffer in Beaches-East York.

I think this could actually be an opportunity for the ONDP to trade up. Nothing against Rima but she was very passionate a bit of a flakey academic social justice warrior type who got the nomination unopposed in 2018 when the conventional wisdom was that the NDP would have a hard time winning back that seat. I suspect this could be a good opportunity for the NDP to run someone high profile who would be seen as "cabinet minister material"

Matthew Kellway?

Though given how the seat's been generically gentrifying away from the NDP federally and arguably even municipally, I could see that 2018-era conventional wisdom returning to haunt the party, particularly if the Libs are in any way poised to push the ONDP back into third-party status, and given that former councillor Mary-Margaret McMahon's their candidate...

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and now it IS 4 NDP MPPs not running again. Rima Berns-McGown has announced she will not reoffer in Beaches-East York.

I think this could actually be an opportunity for the ONDP to trade up. Nothing against Rima but she was very passionate a bit of a flakey academic social justice warrior type who got the nomination unopposed in 2018 when the conventional wisdom was that the NDP would have a hard time winning back that seat. I suspect this could be a good opportunity for the NDP to run someone high profile who would be seen as "cabinet minister material"

From a distance, as unpopular as the Ford P.Cs were in their first year in government, the NDP seemed to be even more unpopular as the official opposition.  A large amount of this seemed to stem from Rima Berns-McGown being the Deputy Leader and her promoting a very left wing 'social justice warrior' agenda.  The NDP seems to have shifted away from that since her demotion.

I really think people weren't all that engaged to notice or be swayed by any such shift in agenda.  The "unpopularity" has more to do with Ontario's MSM still hard-wired t/w a Lib/Con binary w/NDP as eternal 3rd party, and Doug Ford's own tendency to gaslight and marginalize the Official Opposition: "we won, you lost, so, nyaaah".  So, they had negligible oxygen--they weren't unpopular so much as they were "unnoticed".

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Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

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Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

I think more woke types help NDP in downtown Toronto, but hurt them in more blue collar ridings like Oshawa, Niagara Centre, Essex and target ones like Sault Ste Marie, Kenora-Rainy River, and Brantford-Brant.  Now perhaps based on global trends, these type are shifting away anyways so there is not much they can do about shift and they need to like BC NDP offset this by winning in upper middle class urban ridings to cancel loss of blue collar smaller communities.  With high cost of living, that may be possible as historically if you made six figure salaries, you didn't have to worry about financial difficulties so you voted for a party that would give you a tax cut.

But now with housing so expensive, even many with six figure salaries struggle on affordability front and things like more affordable housing, better public transit, a universal childcare program which are all traditional NDP ideas can be appealing to people in past who would have been too wealthy to vote NDP.  And this group is sort of a meh on SJW stuff unlike many in blue collar areas who find it a huge turnoff. 

It also depends on how much *voters*--even blue-collar ones--put SJW issues (or dislike of the same) on the front burner, or are even prone to noticing.  Most Ontarians aren't Queen's Park nerds.  Whether from within or from without, it's "invisibility" that's presently the ONDP's enemy, more than wokeness per se...

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Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

Like I said, I'm from a distance from Ontario and don't see a lot, but I did see opinion polls in Ontario around 2019 that showed the NDP as the official NDP even more unpopular than the government and I saw news stories and tweets quoting people saying the NDP was obsessed with SJW type stuff, and I believe the name most often mentioned with that was Sara Singh who was then the Attorney General critic.  She was then removed from that role and support for the NDP seemed to steadily rise after that.

I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong about this and obviously memory is a strange thing.

If you're thinking of "even more unpopular" strictly in raw terms of voting-choice opinion polls, that is true; the Tories remained at the top of the polls.  But again, that's more due to lack of media/parliamentary oxygen, and due to a more generic lingering skepticism re the ONDP as any kind of "natural governing party"--that is, the Orange Wave in '18 was conditional, the left-end version of Liberal rejection rather than something reflective of a more significant and enduring paradigm shift.  It was a "parked vote" that was *always* going to have a problem with baked-in NDP "wokeishness", and which was prepared to pivot back to the Libs at the earliest opportune moment.  And which is why "the left" (i.e. the anti-Tories) has remained split.  Anything deeper re "news stories and tweets" (or fixation upon Sara Singh) is right/libertarian silo stuff--most non-constituent voters didn't or don't even know Sara Singh enough to care, because her party's not in government, it's in opposition, and particularly in our fragmented/segmented media era that's insufficient to get people to "engage"--for one thing, I don't know if I've *ever* seen her depicted in a political cartoon (though maybe I *might* if I followed that particular twittersphere).

Besides, any polling doldrums circa 2019 and subsequent steady rise in support could well be the reflected glory of another Singh: federal leader Jagmeet, who spent most of that year as apparent Dead Leader Walking of a Dead Party Walking until "proving himself" in the election that fall.  (The inverse of declared provincial Lib support being the reflected glory of the federal brand--particularly during a period when the OLP was practically leaderless.)

[adma]

The NDP and Liberals have once again lept on a political landmine, they've come out against Doug Ford's lifting of the mask mandate and vaccine passport scheme which will almost certainly drive all anti-covid restriction voters back into doug ford's camp, despite him having implemented some of the strictest restrictions of any judristction.

How many of those kinds of, shall we say, electorally militant anti-restriction voters are there?  If anything'll drive them back into Doug Ford's camp, it's Randy Hillier (the most "charismatic" of the anti-restriction dissidents) opting to retire rather than to lead a provincial version of PPC.