Ontario Election 2022

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Angus Reid has the ONDP ahead today

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022.01.20_provincial_politics_vote.pdf

36% NDP, 33% PCO, 19% LIB
These 3 leaders are so unlikeable. If I had to choose one to "have a drink with" it would probably be Ford, even though I disagree with him on almost everything.  Del Duca is so unlikeable, unattractive (I think this does matter), not to mention the pool-gate and Kirby GO stuff, people won't embrace him.  Andrea needs to lay down on the angry yelling in Queens park.  Not every issue needs to be a yelling/screaming thing.  I'll probably vote for Schreiner.  I wish we could have PEI type politics, kind, respectful, people who happen to disagree, instead of this vile kind of mudslinging that has become Ontario politics.

This is really going to be the "lesser of 3 evils" type of election.

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Horwath's persona isn't limited to being in opposition against Ford, like one of the posts above mentions.  Watch the Queens Park tapes from when she was the Leader of the 3rd party, in opposition to Kathleen Wynne's Liberals. Much the same type of questioning, I think when every single Queen's Park speech is hyperbolic, and "outrageous", it takes away from things that Ford is doing that are truly awful. Anyway, if that's how she chooses to engage in debate, that's fine. I don't think anyone is saying she shouldn't be allowed to.  I think for me, it's just not something that I'm attracted to as a voter. I've voted for Andrea's ONDP in each of the elections I've been able to vote (She's been there THAT long), so maybe there's fatigue. I do agree that the last election was probably her best chance. I hope she wins, because her policies would benefit the most Ontarians, and for the most part I think she does do what is "Right" (except for some reason she still believes Catholics should have their own discriminatory Education system). I'm someone who moved from one of those small union towns to Toronto, and what it means to be an NDP supporter is very different, whereas what it means to be a Liberal or OPC supporter is pretty similar no matter where in the province you are. So I'm curious to see how she will navigate that.

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The extra 2 week, as I understand it, is to ensure all the March Break related travel doesn't have an impact on kids in school.  Students/staff have never returned after a prolonged break without going online.  March Break (x2), Winter Break (x2), it's always been straight to online learning.  Now kids finally can return to school after a break, and let's just be cautious and keep the masks for 2 weeks.  That's what sensible people are saying, and why 2 more weeks is being suggested.

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I've never seen it either, and I tend to watch Question Period quite often. Perhaps the original poster here is mistaken.  Of all of the new class of ONDP MPPs,  Suze and Jill (and to a lesser extent Rima, Laura Mae and Jessica Bell) are the "woke" group, not Sara Singh. But it's Suze and Jill who, to me, come off as the uninformed SJW warrior types. Sarah Singh has been one of the most visible and effective additions to the ONDP caucus.

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Former Toronto Police Chief, Mark Saunders, is running for the Ontario PCs in Don Valley West (Kathleen Wynne's riding).

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Interesting that in Kathleen Wynne's old riding of Don Valley West - the PCs are running the black former police chief of Toronto, the NDP is running the Jewish former Child Advocate of Ontario and the Ontario Liberals are running a generic corporate executive who no one has ever heard of. 

Kind of surprised that she didn't resign as an MP during her term. What has she been doing for the last four years?

I think a big part of that was because the Liberals didn't want to chance losing the seat to the PCs (it was one of the closest ridings in the last election), and it also put the Liberals out of official party status (which is 8 seats in Ontario, they had 7 for a while I think had 8 for a time as well when Simard joined?).

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Paul Miller will run as an independent in Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, wonder if this will split the vote at all.

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Plus, there's the matter of broader hinterland rightward trending, as evidenced by Charlie Angus's weak federal share last time and the surprisingly strong PPC share in TJB--and furthermore, provincially speaking, thanks to the "splicing-out" of the far-north ridings this is no longer TJB, but just plain Timmins, so there's no longer a reserve vote to counteract rightward tendencies...

Forgot about that.  That makes Timmins much more winnable for the PCs.

Bisson and Angus are not comparable.  Angus doesn't even live in Timmins-James Bay, is not Francophone either. Liberals tend to do better in Timmins proper federally (in the western and Northern portions of the City of Timmins), but both those areas tend to vote for Bisson provincially. Also, the anglophones in Timmins tend to be white-ethnics (large Italian, Irish populations), who historically voted Liberal as well. The demographics aren't there for a PC win: Francophone + Union Town + White Ethnics = Lib/NDP. The PCs nominated Timmins Mayor, but he is in his first term as mayor (and has no other elected experience prior), not as well-liked in the City as people may think. The only thing here that makes it an "easy" riding to flip is how small of a riding it is (40k) in a small geographic area (Timmins boundaries), makes it maybe the easiest riding to campaign in.

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Any news on who the ONDP is running in Beaches - East York?  Berns-Mcgown is not running again.  Might we see Matthew Kellway?  Not sure who else would run here, but B-EY loves their youngish straight white men (Brad, Nathaniel) who campaign on the left but govern/vote on the right.

Also curious to know if Kevin Yarde is seeking re-election in Brampton North?  I don't think that has been announced yet.

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Nate Erskine-Smith votes on the right? He's pretty much as left as you can go as a Liberal before hitting NDP territory

A lot of NDP partisans really dislike NES because he's eaten their lunch in Beaches-East York.  He gets a higher share of the vote than Maria Minna did in the Chretien days.  His personal popularity and the "Brahmin Liberal-ization" of the Beaches has put the federal NDP out of contention there.  And I'm not sure if the seat can be held provincially either.

I think it's the faux liberalism approach for me. I think it's weird for you to mention that NDP partisans would be upset because 'he's eaten their lunch', Who would expect any different?  Wealthy white people vote for someone just like them to represent them. That's like saying Liberal partisans in Lanark-Frontenac dislike Randy Hillier for eating their lunch?  The demographics are quite clearly there for him to win. White rich Liberals who want to keep their wealth, don't want to help out those in lower income tax brackets if it means they have to pay.  Campaign on being compassionate, open, wanting to help others, but don't do anything to create pathways to equity (financial or otherwise). The way I see it, that is the unspoken NES and Brad Bradford brand. Understand that it's relevant and beneficial to remain liberal for optics, but to maintain wealth, govern different.

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I think it's the faux liberalism approach for me. I think it's weird for you to mention that NDP partisans would be upset because 'he's eaten their lunch', Who would expect any different?  Wealthy white people vote for someone just like them to represent them. That's like saying Liberal partisans in Lanark-Frontenac dislike Randy Hillier for eating their lunch?  The demographics are quite clearly there for him to win. White rich Liberals who want to keep their wealth, don't want to help out those in lower income tax brackets if it means they have to pay.  Campaign on being compassionate, open, wanting to help others, but don't do anything to create pathways to equity (financial or otherwise). The way I see it, that is the unspoken NES and Brad Bradford brand. Understand that it's relevant and beneficial to remain liberal for optics, but to maintain wealth, govern different.

Don't really get the Randy Hillier comparison.  NES appeals to a lot of people who might be open to voting NDP, I don't think Hillier had an appeal to Liberal voters whatsoever.  

Was being facetious, the point being that it's not a shock to anyone (including NDPers) that BEY votes Liberal given the demographics of the riding.

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Michael Ford is running for the PCs in York South-Weston.  Doug Ford made it a three-way race last time.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8732227/toronto-michael-ford-election-york-south-weston/

Bad news for the ONDP here.  No way they will keep it with Ford running, although this is not the area he represents on Toronto council. Wonder if Frances Nunziata will endorse.

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I did not know Yarde doesn't live in the riding.  Where does he live, weird that he would have contested the riding in the first place, no?  Brampton North is a little less demographically "South Asian" than Brampton East, so I don't think there is as big of a need for a South Asian candidate as there would be in Brampton East. I find the optics don't look great, even if it may help the ONDP maintain the riding. For the rest of us looking in, a competent Black man was essentially "booted" from the party, and Andrea felt no need to intervene.  Not great optics.

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The ONDP numbers in Don Valley West were artificially high last time after it was clear Kathleen would be stepping down and admitted defeat before the election, many thought she might even resign the seat after the election.  The NDP is usually below 10% in this riding which helps OLP.

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ONDP at 23% isn't great, but also not so bad for them, it's probably the same number of seats as the OLP would get at 28-29%. The thing is, the ONDP could be at 0% in places like the Don Valleys, Etobicoke Centre, all of York Region, and much of rural-central Ontario, etc, which makes that 23% more like 30%+ in the rest of the province. The Liberals/PCs don't really have that "advantage", even in the Downtown Toronto ridings the PCs pull in more in the 15-20% range rather than the 0-10% the ONDP gets in the regions I listed.

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What in the current curriculum pushes that?  Yes, please provide examples so we can engage in discussion about something concrete.

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Should we play the shocking predictions game?

I'll go first..  Del Duca loses in his riding of Vaughan-Woodbridge.

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Shocking in the sense that even Kathleen Wynne won her seat as Liberal leader in the last election despite the party's dismal finish.  Has there ever been an Ontario Liberal leader (provincially) who has not won their own riding?  That would be pretty remarkable, at least historic. I would call those things shocking, but guess we all interpret things differently.

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The Liberals still have not nominated a full slate of candidates, only 116, less than the Greens even (120).  The PC and ONDP both have candidates in all 124 ridings.  Some of the ridings you would think would at least be competitive Liberal ridings, like Barrie-Innisfil, Liberal Ann Hoggarth's riding prior to the last election I believe, no Liberal candidate yet.

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The Liberals still have not nominated a full slate of candidates, only 116, less than the Greens even (120).  The PC and ONDP both have candidates in all 124 ridings.  Some of the ridings you would think would at least be competitive Liberal ridings, like Barrie-Innisfil, Liberal Ann Hoggarth's riding prior to the last election I believe, no Liberal candidate yet.

Hah, I lived in what's now Barrie-Innisfil for a couple of years when I was a kid, I should give the OLP a call.

It wasn't so much Hoggarth's riding prior to the last election as it contained half of her old riding (the old coterminous Barrie riding having been split into two rurban entities), it was actually the less Lib-congenial of the two, and she only ran there under the presumption that Patrick Brown was running in the other one.  And in the process, she became the only Lib incumbent to lose her deposit.  (Still, given the 2nd place polling, one'd expect better than a Manitoban incomplete slate for the OLP--though yes, it's less than a week into the campaign)

I'd say the demographics of South Barrie have changed the riding's political leanings a bit, and I think make it more competitive than when Hoggarth won.  It's a lot of former GTA and Toronto dwellers who moved out for affordability, but want to be able to commute. Regardless this is not the place I would expect no Liberal candidate, they are at least somewhat competitive.

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Is there a way to watch the Northern Debate online?  I believe it starts at 1pm this afternoon.

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Looking like with the PCs ahead in Northern Ontario, and places Timmins, Mushkegowuk-James Bay, Algoma-Manitoulin, Kiwentinoon are learning PC, we are headed to super majority status.  Looks like it could be only Gélinas and Vanthof who will be back from the Northern ONDP caucus. I think these areas have voted for Andrea for the past 3-4 elections, it's almost like the "change" vote here is Doug.  

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Controversy in Etobicoke-Centre.  Will DelDuca remove the Liberal candidate here for the homophobic comments (like he did in the other Non-winnable ridings)?  Or because they have a shot here, will he keep the candidate?

Also, did the Liberals re-nominate in Parry Sound Muskoka?  If not, could the Greens have a shot here?

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Re Timmins & Parry Sound-Muskoka

Timmins --> Easiest riding to campaign in the province since it's relatively small geographically AND in terms of population (40k ish) after the 2 New Northern ridings were created.  Any remaining Liberals are pretty much die hards (only got 8% of the vote last time), most would have jumped to NDP/Con in the last election.  Despite that even if you give those 8% of voters to the PCs, they still fall short. It's more about how much of an ONDP --> PC swing happens, might happen. Still too hard to say.

Parry Sound-Muskoka --> I think it's the perfect storm here for the Greens.  Not only will the Liberal voters change to Green, it might actually also have an effect on would-be NDP voters to swap to Green seeing as now there's one clear alternative. The PC Candidate is not an incumbent, so there's an opportunity to get former PC voters too. The new PC Candidate is also not the most attractive guy, this shouldn't matter, but these things do tend to affect voters.  If you look at Graydon Smith, and then Matt Richter, the people of Muskoka especially the skiers, wakeboarder, under 40s who are all about active lifestyles, will not be moving for Smith.

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DelDuca using Layton's line was a little odd too, it was such a memorable quote that we all recognized it right away.  Stealing from such a well liked dead man.  Either reference it, "Just as Jack once said.." I would have kind of understood, okay, but to just verbatim steal the line? Also, when Steven repeatedly said "Respectfully" to Andrea about 5-6x times to get her to not engage in debate (and shut her up) really did not look good, either. I was so confused by that, it was a 1 vs 1. debate time , they are supposed to engage in debate.

Anyway,  I think Schreiner did best, the rest didn't do well at all. Not happy with any of the choices, though.