Ontario Election 2022

[toaster]

Angus Reid has the ONDP ahead today

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022.01.20_provincial_politics_vote.pdf

36% NDP, 33% PCO, 19% LIB
These 3 leaders are so unlikeable. If I had to choose one to "have a drink with" it would probably be Ford, even though I disagree with him on almost everything.  Del Duca is so unlikeable, unattractive (I think this does matter), not to mention the pool-gate and Kirby GO stuff, people won't embrace him.  Andrea needs to lay down on the angry yelling in Queens park.  Not every issue needs to be a yelling/screaming thing.  I'll probably vote for Schreiner.  I wish we could have PEI type politics, kind, respectful, people who happen to disagree, instead of this vile kind of mudslinging that has become Ontario politics.

This is really going to be the "lesser of 3 evils" type of election.

[adma]

Angus Reid has the ONDP ahead today

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022.01.20_provincial_politics_vote.pdf

36% NDP, 33% PCO, 19% LIB
These 3 leaders are so unlikeable. If I had to choose one to "have a drink with" it would probably be Ford, even though I disagree with him on almost everything.  Del Duca is so unlikeable, unattractive (I think this does matter), not to mention the pool-gate and Kirby GO stuff, people won't embrace him.  Andrea needs to lay down on the angry yelling in Queens park.  Not every issue needs to be a yelling/screaming thing.  I'll probably vote for Schreiner.  I wish we could have PEI type politics, kind, respectful, people who happen to disagree, instead of this vile kind of mudslinging that has become Ontario politics.

This is really going to be the "lesser of 3 evils" type of election.

To repeat: while she isn't a bundle of electrifying charisma the way that Le Bon Jack was federally, Andrea's not nearly the party liability that naysayers claim her to be.  And a lot of her present "angry yelling" impression has to do with her working against a gaslighting, nails-on-chalkboard-labelling stacked deck in the form of Doug Ford.

Once again:  she's always been more broadly "attractive" and "popular" among the electorate than naysayers (who almost invariably tend to be male) would have it.  (And of course, said almost-invariably-male naysayers put off by her "shrillness"--yeah, the same old "shrill woman" electoral pigeonhole--very often like to declare their "principled" support for conveniently-male Mike Schreiner instead.  Who isn't exactly any more Mr. Charisma, except to political nerds.  And I know, because I witnessed them declaring such intent in '18 as well, and would probably spin Schreiner winning his own seat as being more of a political victory than the shrill-Andrea wave landing the NDP in a wet dream of a solid official opposition position but Still Not Winning).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Angus Reid has the ONDP ahead today

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022.01.20_provincial_politics_vote.pdf

36% NDP, 33% PCO, 19% LIB
These 3 leaders are so unlikeable. If I had to choose one to "have a drink with" it would probably be Ford, even though I disagree with him on almost everything.  Del Duca is so unlikeable, unattractive (I think this does matter), not to mention the pool-gate and Kirby GO stuff, people won't embrace him.  Andrea needs to lay down on the angry yelling in Queens park.  Not every issue needs to be a yelling/screaming thing.  I'll probably vote for Schreiner.  I wish we could have PEI type politics, kind, respectful, people who happen to disagree, instead of this vile kind of mudslinging that has become Ontario politics.

This is really going to be the "lesser of 3 evils" type of election.

To repeat: while she isn't a bundle of electrifying charisma the way that Le Bon Jack was federally, Andrea's not nearly the party liability that naysayers claim her to be.  And a lot of her present "angry yelling" impression has to do with her working against a gaslighting, nails-on-chalkboard-labelling stacked deck in the form of Doug Ford.

Once again:  she's always been more broadly "attractive" and "popular" among the electorate than naysayers (who almost invariably tend to be male) would have it.  (And of course, said almost-invariably-male naysayers put off by her "shrillness"--yeah, the same old "shrill woman" electoral pigeonhole--very often like to declare their "principled" support for conveniently-male Mike Schreiner instead.  Who isn't exactly any more Mr. Charisma, except to political nerds.  And I know, because I witnessed them declaring such intent in '18 as well, and would probably spin Schreiner winning his own seat as being more of a political victory than the shrill-Andrea wave landing the NDP in a wet dream of a solid official opposition position but Still Not Winning).

I agree that people are overly critical of Horwath. Even her biggest supporters have to admit that she's pretty boring and a thoroughly average politician at best, but some of the criticism levied against her go too far. Taking a hostile tone towards Ford is probably not even a liability if her goal is to unite the anti-Ford vote, who easily outnumber the pro-Ford vote. Maybe she can tone it down a bit, but for a leader of a centre-left party in Ontario, being too critical of Ford is far better than not being critical enough.

I think her being a woman definitely lends itself to these "shrill" accusations, but for a more gender-neutral criticism, I think the fact that she's been around for ages has worsened her appeal. For better or worse, Canadians are used to seeing frequent changes in leadership (unless the leader is a premier/PM), and Horwath's star seems to have burned out after 2018. But she's not a completely ineffective leader, and frankly far better than Del Duca who is even more uncharismatic and has not been able to build up the OLP to the extent required if they want to go from 7 seats to government in one cycle.

[adma]

I think the fact that she's been around for ages has worsened her appeal. For better or worse, Canadians are used to seeing frequent changes in leadership (unless the leader is a premier/PM), and Horwath's star seems to have burned out after 2018.

Though I'd argue that some of the burnout is an induced condition thanks to Doug Ford--hate to say it, but as opposition leader, she's a gift to a bully-boy leader like the Premier, someone he can gaslight and treat condescendingly to no end because he won and she lost, so there, nyaah.  No parliamentary oxygen to you, loser with the "nails on chalkboard" voice.  So the NDP's been reduced to bark-bark-barking like Barnyard Dawg while Foghorn Leghorn Ford sits comfortably on his side of the "Rope Limit" sign.

Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

Do you think she'll get another writ period though? She's been NDP leader for nearly 13 years now and 2022 will be her fourth election, and that kind of leadership longevity is very rare, even by NDP standards. Unless the NDP wins this election (or forms government with some deal with the Liberals), it's hard to imagine her getting a fifth kick at the can.

[King of Kensington]

The OLP seems to be picking up "Doug Ford Liberals" and strategic voters.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

On the left the battle seems to be between between the OLP's credibility as a traditional governing party despite perceived corruption, incompetence and a lack of grassroots support or fundraising and the NDP's actual status as the opposition despite Horwath failing to even come close when conditions were much more favourable last time. Of course the OLP doesn't exactly have strong leadership either, and the end result of this stoppable force meeting a movable object is a statistical tie, the only scenario that could give Ford a second term with less than 35% of the vote.

Considering how Horwath got 33.59% vs Ford's 40.50% and earned 40 seats (the most for *any* official opposition party in modern times, save the '85 dead-heat), "failing to even come close" is a bit of an overstatement, particularly for a hitherto perennial-3rd party (save fleeting intervals in 43/45/75/87/90) with the lingering stigma of the Rae years and without big corporate donors or a galvanized MSM machine behind it.  However, the ONDP *still* doesn't have big corporate donors or a galvanized MSM machine behind it (all of that is still hardwired t/w the Libs); plus, Doug Ford's gaslighting tendencies haven't given the ONDP the official opposition profile or oxygen necessary--thus the various signals that Team Horwath might be reverting to 3rd-party form.  (And as for the Libs, the perceived corruption/incompetence as anything terminally fatal was basically a hyped-up '18 thing.  But they still have the infrastructure of their federal siblings as backup, in case their present lack of official party status is crippling in and of itself.)

In fact, the way she's positioned, I'd argue that Horwath is at least as much of a to-be-watched sleeper factor in '22 as she was in '18--and she's always been more broadly "attractive" and "popular" among the electorate than naysayers (who almost invariably tend to be male) would have it.  But again: her party's always had that "infrastructure problem".  (I remember, surprisingly close to e-day, venturing into ridings like Scarborough Centre where the NDP finished a very competitive 2nd, and seeing nothing but Liberal and PC signage on the main streets as if the old status quo still held.)

In 2018 the stars were basically aligned for Horwath to win: the credible left of center alternative was in total disarray and the Tories nominated the world famous crack smoking mayor's brother, Canadian Trump. This time around she has to convince voters that she's a more credible alternative than the party that's actually been in government for most of the past several decades.

To be fair, I don't think it's necessarily just an issue of leadership, and there are basically no ONDP members I can think of that would do any better. Maybe Natyshak, but he's retiring because going by the Federal results he'd have an uphill battle just holding on. The real problem is that the NDP's brand is toxic in the Toronto suburbs that traditionally determine the Premiership while the dominance of the downtown Toronto base reduces their support in rural Eastern and Southern ridings they used to be able to compete in.

So if the NDP isn't competitive in the now safe Tory ridings that gave Bob Rae his premiership and it isn't competitive in the suburban ridings the PCs and Liberals always prioritize then they don't have a path to the Premiership based on their own capabilities. She's basically counting on significant right wing defection or abstention and Del Duca falling flat. If she makes it a 2 horse race again but Ford's base sticks with him then she'll lose just like 2018 and if Del Duca keeps it competitive then Ford could win a majority even with a far smaller percentage of the vote, as low as 33% in an NDP-LPC dead heat.

Also, the "Horwath didn't win because misogyny" seems pretty silly in a world where Wynne won. Her problem isn't misogyny, it's that her party is bound by stereotypes and she's too afraid of her own base to break them. She was practically forced into a struggle session for being insufficiently enthusiastic about vaccine mandates.

Its not even like there isn't any precedent, Notley running in a province with a far stronger anti-NDP bias managed to win once and right now is easily to the favourite to win next time too. Somehow she's able to navigate between being viewed credibly by the electorate and winning the support of the base by picking her battles despite "misogyny".

[adma]

Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

Do you think she'll get another writ period though? She's been NDP leader for nearly 13 years now and 2022 will be her fourth election, and that kind of leadership longevity is very rare, even by NDP standards. Unless the NDP wins this election (or forms government with some deal with the Liberals), it's hard to imagine her getting a fifth kick at the can.

By "next", I mean "this", i.e. 2022, as opposed to 2026 (or earlier).

And of course, the *other* factor that could give oxygen to the so-called "split" NDP/Lib opposition: a split in the *right*, in case forces like Randy Hillier's Ontario First gain momentum...

[DC Al Fine]

Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

Do you think she'll get another writ period though? She's been NDP leader for nearly 13 years now and 2022 will be her fourth election, and that kind of leadership longevity is very rare, even by NDP standards. Unless the NDP wins this election (or forms government with some deal with the Liberals), it's hard to imagine her getting a fifth kick at the can.

By "next", I mean "this", i.e. 2022, as opposed to 2026 (or earlier).

And of course, the *other* factor that could give oxygen to the so-called "split" NDP/Lib opposition: a split in the *right*, in case forces like Randy Hillier's Ontario First gain momentum...

Possibly, but but the right-of-Tories is significantly more divided in Ontario, than they were federally. Instead of the right wing criticism of the Tories uniting around the PPC with a couple sideshows, we have three squabbling pygmies duking it out. I have a hard time seeing someone break out of that mess to challenge Ford.

[adma]

Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

Do you think she'll get another writ period though? She's been NDP leader for nearly 13 years now and 2022 will be her fourth election, and that kind of leadership longevity is very rare, even by NDP standards. Unless the NDP wins this election (or forms government with some deal with the Liberals), it's hard to imagine her getting a fifth kick at the can.

By "next", I mean "this", i.e. 2022, as opposed to 2026 (or earlier).

And of course, the *other* factor that could give oxygen to the so-called "split" NDP/Lib opposition: a split in the *right*, in case forces like Randy Hillier's Ontario First gain momentum...

Possibly, but but the right-of-Tories is significantly more divided in Ontario, than they were federally. Instead of the right wing criticism of the Tories uniting around the PPC with a couple sideshows, we have three squabbling pygmies duking it out. I have a hard time seeing someone break out of that mess to challenge Ford.

Perhaps, but there's a reason why I singled out Hillier among the bunch--essentially, he's already by far the most familiar and galvanizing provincial PPC-proxy figurehead.  The Sloan & Karahalios entities are likelier to be marginal reruns of Jack MacLaren and the Trillium Party in '18.

[DL]

I'm not sure what the knock against Horwath is. I mostly hear complaints about her from NDP members. I think she is actually a lot more popular with voters than she is with members of her own party. The people within the NDP who don't like her seem to fall into two slightly overlapping categories:

1) Highly educated party members from downtown Toronto - the types who like to think of themselves as "activists" and who are often "professors of social work" or who are members of think tanks etc... they have never been comfortable with Horwath largely for reasons of social class. She is from Hamilton and is from a very working class background and the self-styled "smart people" in the NDP tend to be more middle/upper middle class and they find her a bit too "common"

2) People from the very small but very vocal lunatic fringe far left who can't forgive her for not being some sort of female Canadian version of Jeremy Corbyn.

For all the criticism of her, she has to have done something right. She took over the leadership of the Ontario NDP after it had lost official party status in three consecutive elections and had just 9 seats - she took the party from 9 seats to 17 seats to 20 seats to 40 seats. She won more seats and a larger vote share than past leaders who are considered great icons like Stephen Lewis and Donald C. McDonald.

I don't think she is the greatest thing since sliced bread and there are other people in that caucus who could maybe do as well or even better (Marit Stiles or Catherine Fife come to mind) - but I think she has been OK and after taking the party to its second best performance ever in 2018 she deserves one more kick at the can

[DL]

These 3 leaders are so unlikeable. If I had to choose one to "have a drink with" it would probably be Ford, even though I disagree with him on almost everything.  Del Duca is so unlikeable, unattractive (I think this does matter), not to mention the pool-gate and Kirby GO stuff, people won't embrace him.  Andrea needs to lay down on the angry yelling in Queens park.  Not every issue needs to be a yelling/screaming thing.  I'll probably vote for Schreiner.  I wish we could have PEI type politics, kind, respectful, people who happen to disagree, instead of this vile kind of mudslinging that has become Ontario politics.

This is really going to be the "lesser of 3 evils" type of election.

I find people are very hard on female opposition leaders. Anytime they do their job and criticize the government, they get attacked for being "shrill" and negative in a way that a male politician would never be attacked. I've met Horwath a few times in more informal settings, she is actually pretty personable and seems like the kind of gal who likes to drink a few glasses of chardonnay and kid around with people. Even if I was not an NDP supporter I'd find her fun.

PS: You cannot have a drink with Doug Ford. He is a teetotaler and does not drink at all - given his past as a drug dealer and all the substance abuse in the Ford family, it would not surprise me if he is a recovering alcoholic.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

Do you think she'll get another writ period though? She's been NDP leader for nearly 13 years now and 2022 will be her fourth election, and that kind of leadership longevity is very rare, even by NDP standards. Unless the NDP wins this election (or forms government with some deal with the Liberals), it's hard to imagine her getting a fifth kick at the can.

By "next", I mean "this", i.e. 2022, as opposed to 2026 (or earlier).

And of course, the *other* factor that could give oxygen to the so-called "split" NDP/Lib opposition: a split in the *right*, in case forces like Randy Hillier's Ontario First gain momentum...

Possibly, but but the right-of-Tories is significantly more divided in Ontario, than they were federally. Instead of the right wing criticism of the Tories uniting around the PPC with a couple sideshows, we have three squabbling pygmies duking it out. I have a hard time seeing someone break out of that mess to challenge Ford.

Yeah, I don't really see the right-of-Tories taking much oxygen out of the PCs. If the PPC is any indicator of the strength of this brand of politics, it suggests that any "right-of-tory" surge will happen in either:

1. Very right-wing places, particularly in rural Southwestern Ontario. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Haldimand-Norfolk are good examples where the PPC got 14% and 11% respectively, but barring some major change, these aren't places the PCs have to worry about. I guess Hillier brings Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston into this column, but again, Tory margins are high and the centre-left is not very competitive there.

2. "Left-populist" areas, like Windsor-Tecumseh, London Fanshawe, Nickel Belt, and most famously, Timmins-James Bay where not only did the PPC get 13%, but this mainly came at Charlie Angus' expense (whether this was due to lower indigenous turnout, etc, that is to be seen after the poll-by-polls come out). In any case, these are places that the Tories need not worry about.

The part of Ontario that the Tories will absolutely need to worry about holding onto is the 905 and the outskirts of the 416. Broadly speaking, this area saw the PPC's worst performance in the province.

Essentially, the places that saw the biggest surge in PPC support were either places the Tories just won't win, or places where they just won't lose. The places where the Ford PCs could actually lose seats, are not very conducive to the PPC. So while I wouldn't completely write off these fringe movements on the right, it's not clear to me that this is going to be Ford's biggest problem.

[adma]

Yeah, I don't really see the right-of-Tories taking much oxygen out of the PCs. If the PPC is any indicator of the strength of this brand of politics, it suggests that any "right-of-tory" surge will happen in either:

1. Very right-wing places, particularly in rural Southwestern Ontario. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Haldimand-Norfolk are good examples where the PPC got 14% and 11% respectively, but barring some major change, these aren't places the PCs have to worry about. I guess Hillier brings Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston into this column, but again, Tory margins are high and the centre-left is not very competitive there.

2. "Left-populist" areas, like Windsor-Tecumseh, London Fanshawe, Nickel Belt, and most famously, Timmins-James Bay where not only did the PPC get 13%, but this mainly came at Charlie Angus' expense (whether this was due to lower indigenous turnout, etc, that is to be seen after the poll-by-polls come out). In any case, these are places that the Tories need not worry about.

And those two sort of intersect when it comes to a Chatham-Kent-Leamington type of seat--someplace where the "Horwath Democrats" made significant inroads in '14 vs Tim Hudak's tin-eared 2nd run, only to see dreams of taking-it-all trashed in '18.  That is, how much is it in fact '14-style Horwath populism that's poised to be hollowed out by the fringe right?  (And that goes even more so for the neighbouring, newly-open NDP seat of Essex).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Yeah, I don't really see the right-of-Tories taking much oxygen out of the PCs. If the PPC is any indicator of the strength of this brand of politics, it suggests that any "right-of-tory" surge will happen in either:

1. Very right-wing places, particularly in rural Southwestern Ontario. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Haldimand-Norfolk are good examples where the PPC got 14% and 11% respectively, but barring some major change, these aren't places the PCs have to worry about. I guess Hillier brings Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston into this column, but again, Tory margins are high and the centre-left is not very competitive there.

2. "Left-populist" areas, like Windsor-Tecumseh, London Fanshawe, Nickel Belt, and most famously, Timmins-James Bay where not only did the PPC get 13%, but this mainly came at Charlie Angus' expense (whether this was due to lower indigenous turnout, etc, that is to be seen after the poll-by-polls come out). In any case, these are places that the Tories need not worry about.

And those two sort of intersect when it comes to a Chatham-Kent-Leamington type of seat--someplace where the "Horwath Democrats" made significant inroads in '14 vs Tim Hudak's tin-eared 2nd run, only to see dreams of taking-it-all trashed in '18.  That is, how much is it in fact '14-style Horwath populism that's poised to be hollowed out by the fringe right?  (And that goes even more so for the neighbouring, newly-open NDP seat of Essex).

"Horwath Democrats" made gains in C-K-L in part because of the traditional Liberal base of southwestern Ontario leaving the party in droves during the latter stages of the McGuinty-Wynne era. In 2003 and 2007, the Liberal incumbent Pat Hoy (who was an anti-abortion Liberal, unthinkable these days) won over 50% of the vote, and the Tories failed to cross 30. In comparison to that, even Hudak's terrible 2014 campaign did better, and NDP gains in 2014 seemed to come more from the OLP than PCs. Both the PCs and NDP gained a stronger foothold in this riding by picking up Liberal voters, who went from 59% support in 2003 to 8% in 2018.

The anti-PC vote is pretty damn united in C-K-L under the NDP at this point, the Liberals probably won't fall below last election's abysmal 8% showing. But Rick Nicholls' defection to the Ontario Party could bring it into play. If the NDP can hold onto their 2018 supporters, and Nicholls splits the right-wing vote by drawing about 16% support away from the PCs (not a far cry, as the PPC got 14%), then C-K-L is tied and the NDP could win. But of course, things aren't quite so simple. Nicholls won't only win over former Tories, as I mentioned earlier, these fringe right parties can also attract populist NDPers. Also, if the Liberals make gains at the NDP's expense, that leaves some breathing room for the PCs. A riding to watch for sure, but probably still Tory.

Essex will be a weird one. PCs seem to have the advantage because Natyshak is leaving, it voted CPC federally twice, and the margin was small in 2018. But this is a fringe-right-friendly kind of place, so a lot of it will depend on whether they primarily split the right (thus helping the NDP), or primarily split the populist bloc (thus helping the PCs, who have governed in basically a mainstream Conservative way despite Ford's early reputation). My hunch is that, in a place like Essex, this might benefit the NDP more. Unlike C-K-L where the NDP still saw an increase in 2018 at the Liberals' expense, in Essex, the NDP lost quite a bit of support to the PCs. This seems to suggest that there is a larger constituency of these "Horwath 2014-Ford 2018" voters who go for the most populist option, and saw Ford as that guy. Ford has largely been a disappointment to these voters, having governed in a more "GTA Conservative" manner, which is more true to the PC Party's constituency and ideology than the rhetorical populism of 2018. So I think Essex might stay NDP if they can get past or near 30% - if the NDP finishes in the mid-20s or below, they're not winning here.

[VPH]

Why did the Liberals collapse so quickly in SW Ontario?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Why did the Liberals collapse so quickly in SW Ontario?

In short: Ancestral Liberalism and realignment.

Rural farmers in SW Ontario, many of whom were Catholic or Methodist, were historically some of the biggest opponents of the Anglican/Presbytarian- dominated Tory elite. Beyond religion, there was also a Jackson/Whig kinda divide, where the Tories were the Whiggish party of industry and tariffs, while the Liberals were the more Jacksonian party. But this is way back, like pre-depression era. But the ancestral vote remained all the way until the early-2000s.

This religious, socially-conservative base of Liberal farmers (makes no sense in today's climate, lol) were helped by the fact that unions had a strong presence in many of the small industrial cities of Southern Ontario. And while most unions preferred the NDP, they'd be happy to back Liberals to defeat Tories.

By the early 2000s, it became clear that this socially conservative, rural, agrarian base was offside with the new, metropolitan-dominated Liberal Party. But incumbents kept hanging on, as they were "one of the good ones." However, as these incumbents retired, Conservatives swept in and appealed more to the sensibilities of formerly-Liberal rural voters. And in the small urban centres, a weakening labour base could no longer keep the Tories out.

Today, southwestern Ontario is the worst fit for the Liberal brand in Ontario. Rural areas no longer care about sectarian divides, but they hate social liberalism and "big government". While the post-industrial centres of southwest Ontario are a much better fit for the NDP than the Liberals for class reasons.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Also worth noting that a lot of the Liberal MPs and MPPs that got elected in SW ON were essentially the blue-dog Democrats of Canada. As recently as the Chretien/Martin years, the Liberals had a group of MPs dubbed the "God Squad", who were quite socially conservative and often offside with the leadership. If ancestral Liberalism wasn't a thing, I bet many of them would have run as Conservatives.

[VPH]

Fascinating--thanks! Tbh it seems like the Liberals in SW Ontario today are stronger where there are middle-class suburbs and/or universities.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Fascinating--thanks! Tbh it seems like the Liberals in SW Ontario today are stronger where there are middle-class suburbs and/or universities.

Oh for sure, "professional class" presence gives the Liberals an immediate boost. Pretty much any riding in Ontario with this university/middle class combination is automatically more Liberal-friendly than its surroundings or non university/middle class counterparts.

[adma]

I'm not sure what the knock against Horwath is. I mostly hear complaints about her from NDP members. I think she is actually a lot more popular with voters than she is with members of her own party. The people within the NDP who don't like her seem to fall into two slightly overlapping categories:

1) Highly educated party members from downtown Toronto - the types who like to think of themselves as "activists" and who are often "professors of social work" or who are members of think tanks etc... they have never been comfortable with Horwath largely for reasons of social class. She is from Hamilton and is from a very working class background and the self-styled "smart people" in the NDP tend to be more middle/upper middle class and they find her a bit too "common"

IOW those who would have chosen Tabuns over Horwath for the leadership in '09, or Lankin over Hampton in '96.

2) People from the very small but very vocal lunatic fringe far left who can't forgive her for not being some sort of female Canadian version of Jeremy Corbyn.

At times like this, one wishes somebody like Peter Kormos were still with us to bridge the gap btw/the fringe left, Horwath, and even Ford Nation.

[adma]

Essex will be a weird one. PCs seem to have the advantage because Natyshak is leaving, it voted CPC federally twice, and the margin was small in 2018. But this is a fringe-right-friendly kind of place, so a lot of it will depend on whether they primarily split the right (thus helping the NDP), or primarily split the populist bloc (thus helping the PCs, who have governed in basically a mainstream Conservative way despite Ford's early reputation). My hunch is that, in a place like Essex, this might benefit the NDP more. Unlike C-K-L where the NDP still saw an increase in 2018 at the Liberals' expense, in Essex, the NDP lost quite a bit of support to the PCs. This seems to suggest that there is a larger constituency of these "Horwath 2014-Ford 2018" voters who go for the most populist option, and saw Ford as that guy. Ford has largely been a disappointment to these voters, having governed in a more "GTA Conservative" manner, which is more true to the PC Party's constituency and ideology than the rhetorical populism of 2018. So I think Essex might stay NDP if they can get past or near 30% - if the NDP finishes in the mid-20s or below, they're not winning here.

"Mid-20s or below" would be sinking to Howard Hampton-era levels--under the present leadership circumstance, even 30% would count as sore underperformance.

But the real question is: how much Tory-*to*-NDP swing vote is there remaining?  In our time of Obama/Trump or the UK Red Wall being breached, something feels strangely terminal for the NDP's "attractiveness" to that populist crowd; but who knows...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Essex will be a weird one. PCs seem to have the advantage because Natyshak is leaving, it voted CPC federally twice, and the margin was small in 2018. But this is a fringe-right-friendly kind of place, so a lot of it will depend on whether they primarily split the right (thus helping the NDP), or primarily split the populist bloc (thus helping the PCs, who have governed in basically a mainstream Conservative way despite Ford's early reputation). My hunch is that, in a place like Essex, this might benefit the NDP more. Unlike C-K-L where the NDP still saw an increase in 2018 at the Liberals' expense, in Essex, the NDP lost quite a bit of support to the PCs. This seems to suggest that there is a larger constituency of these "Horwath 2014-Ford 2018" voters who go for the most populist option, and saw Ford as that guy. Ford has largely been a disappointment to these voters, having governed in a more "GTA Conservative" manner, which is more true to the PC Party's constituency and ideology than the rhetorical populism of 2018. So I think Essex might stay NDP if they can get past or near 30% - if the NDP finishes in the mid-20s or below, they're not winning here.

"Mid-20s or below" would be sinking to Howard Hampton-era levels--under the present leadership circumstance, even 30% would count as sore underperformance.

Mid-20s or below would not be "Howard Hampton levels", that's essentially how Horwath did in 2011 and 2014, and Hampton never crossed 20%. Based on the current polls at least, the NDP is averaging in the mid-20s, and 30% would not be an underperformance - according to every pollster other than Angus Reid, it would actually be an overperformance. Now I think we both subscribe to the theory that the NDP will end up outperforming current polls once the campaign kicks off, because the Ontario Liberals are much weaker than the Liberal brand, but that's just speculation, we don't really know.

[DL]

Now I think we both subscribe to the theory that the NDP will end up outperforming current polls once the campaign kicks off, because the Ontario Liberals are much weaker than the Liberal brand, but that's just speculation, we don't really know.

The Ontario NDP also has MUCH more money than do the Ontario Liberals which means that once the official campaign gets started the NDP will likely blow the Liberals out of the water with advertising etc...

[toaster]

Horwath's persona isn't limited to being in opposition against Ford, like one of the posts above mentions.  Watch the Queens Park tapes from when she was the Leader of the 3rd party, in opposition to Kathleen Wynne's Liberals. Much the same type of questioning, I think when every single Queen's Park speech is hyperbolic, and "outrageous", it takes away from things that Ford is doing that are truly awful. Anyway, if that's how she chooses to engage in debate, that's fine. I don't think anyone is saying she shouldn't be allowed to.  I think for me, it's just not something that I'm attracted to as a voter. I've voted for Andrea's ONDP in each of the elections I've been able to vote (She's been there THAT long), so maybe there's fatigue. I do agree that the last election was probably her best chance. I hope she wins, because her policies would benefit the most Ontarians, and for the most part I think she does do what is "Right" (except for some reason she still believes Catholics should have their own discriminatory Education system). I'm someone who moved from one of those small union towns to Toronto, and what it means to be an NDP supporter is very different, whereas what it means to be a Liberal or OPC supporter is pretty similar no matter where in the province you are. So I'm curious to see how she will navigate that.