Ontario Election 2022

[mileslunn]

In less than a year from now, Ontario votes.  At this point seems all three parties have a path to victory and a very real chance of a minority government, but all three have path to majority as well.  Below are my thoughts on the main three.  Yes Greens will get some votes, but they aren't going to form government and at best might win a second seat.

PCs:  Were struggling pre-pandemic, but Ford's strong handling at first led to a big rebound and strong lead.  However mistakes along the way and mishandling of third wave caused his approval to turn negative and poll numbers to fall.  Still most recent polls show PCs in lead although largely due to strong splits on left.  For Ford to win a second term, he needs a strong recovery and slight uptick in support.  One positive is strongest amongst older voters who are most likely to show up.  Biggest weakness is few have PCs as second choice so if there is a lot of strategic voting, he is very vulnerable.  Also if only wins a plurality of seats, good chance he gets defeated on throne speech.  NDP already made clear they won't prop up Tories.  Liberals said wouldn't prop up a Ford led government but seemed to leave open possibility of propping up a PC lead by another leader.

NDP: Depending on which poll you believe they are around 25%.  To win they need to unite progressive vote.  In their favour, Howarth scores higher on personal approval than Del Duca while against her is Liberal brand scores higher than NDP one.  In particular, very few NDP supporters have PCs as second choice, but while far more Liberals have NDP as second choice than PCs, enough have PCs as second choice that in a two way race that could push them over top.  She is strong amongst millennials while weak amongst older voters, so high turnout much like Trudeau had in 2015 will be essential if she wants to win.

Liberals: After falling to third, many polls show them competitive once again.  Much of that is strong brand image as by nature more Ontarioans identify as Liberals than PCs or NDP.  However Del Duca's approval ratings are not great and that could be his weakness.  Good news is a lot don't know him so if he runs a good campaign can improve that.  Support is fairly even across age groups so doesn't skew heavily towards young like NDP or heavily old like PCs.  Likewise Liberal vote far more efficient than NDP and more importantly better chances of gaining in 905.  Likewise if progressives coalesce around one party, few NDPers will defect to PCs whereas a sizeable minority of Liberals would go PC in an NDP-PC race.  On other hand, leadership matters a lot and polls show he has lowest of three leaders so lots going for him if he can improve leadership #'s.  But if cannot, will be tough to win.

[mileslunn]

Not much provincial polling but be interested how federal election plays out.  Will Ontario follow its history of voting opposites so if Trudeau as expected wins a majority or strong minority, then helps Ford.  Or is public turning against conservatism meaning Ford is in trouble.

[lilTommy]

We've had some polling since May, about 5 of them...but fairly "all over the place"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

From May4th to June 7th
PC:  32%, 36%, 33%, 34%, 37%
NDP:  22%, 25%, 28%, 25%, 33%
OLP:  36%, 28%, 27%, 26%, 22%

The PC base looks to be about 30%, at 37% they "could" win re-election with the vote split on the left/centre. But it would be close since the OLP (using most recent poll) are pulling from the PCs almost exclusively (NDP won 33% in 2018). It's obvious the "liberal" brand is strong, and that's because in Ontario the federal Liberals and provincial Liberals are pretty synonymous, unlike out west. It's fairly easy for someone to just sit with the OLP if they are not committed. Del Duca is a terribly boring and uncharismatic leader and does not have the "progressive" pull that Wynne did, add that to both Wynne and Coteau not running again in 2022; OLP fundraising has been pretty terrible. But we know the OLP base is 20%. Will centre/CR OLP-PC voters move back to the OLP? maybe in some urban ridings I could see that, the NDP could be hoping for that... a shift of say 2-5% from the PCs to the OLP would flip about a dozen seats to the NDP I suspect. Or could we see a rallying of the anti-ford vote moving to the NDP, rather then being a ideological vote we could see an anti-ford vote coalesce around the NDP (if Del Duca and OLP again are seen as too weak, not able to win, etc). Both is what the NDP want, a tack-to-the-right for the OLP, rally progressive/urban/young/minority/anti-ford voters.
It's still too early since the Province just moved into stage 2... it may come down to the fall/winter when the PCs will start to push an austerity agenda to "get back into the fiscal good books" (I just can not see them going any other way) and how the province reacts to what their plans are.   

[mileslunn]

We've had some polling since May, about 5 of them...but fairly "all over the place"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

From May4th to June 7th
PC:  32%, 36%, 33%, 34%, 37%
NDP:  22%, 25%, 28%, 25%, 33%
OLP:  36%, 28%, 27%, 26%, 22%

The PC base looks to be about 30%, at 37% they "could" win re-election with the vote split on the left/centre. But it would be close since the OLP (using most recent poll) are pulling from the PCs almost exclusively (NDP won 33% in 2018). It's obvious the "liberal" brand is strong, and that's because in Ontario the federal Liberals and provincial Liberals are pretty synonymous, unlike out west. It's fairly easy for someone to just sit with the OLP if they are not committed. Del Duca is a terribly boring and uncharismatic leader and does not have the "progressive" pull that Wynne did, add that to both Wynne and Coteau not running again in 2022; OLP fundraising has been pretty terrible. But we know the OLP base is 20%. Will centre/CR OLP-PC voters move back to the OLP? maybe in some urban ridings I could see that, the NDP could be hoping for that... a shift of say 2-5% from the PCs to the OLP would flip about a dozen seats to the NDP I suspect. Or could we see a rallying of the anti-ford vote moving to the NDP, rather then being a ideological vote we could see an anti-ford vote coalesce around the NDP (if Del Duca and OLP again are seen as too weak, not able to win, etc). Both is what the NDP want, a tack-to-the-right for the OLP, rally progressive/urban/young/minority/anti-ford voters.
It's still too early since the Province just moved into stage 2... it may come down to the fall/winter when the PCs will start to push an austerity agenda to "get back into the fiscal good books" (I just can not see them going any other way) and how the province reacts to what their plans are.   

Also while polls will change, I do think PCs are more likely to overperform polls than under for simple reason their vote skews heavily towards older voters who are more likely to show up.  By contrast NDP more likely to underperform for exact same reason.  Liberal support though should be close to accurate as support pretty even across age groups.  At same time Ford is pretty hated by left so I think you will see left coalesce to some degree.  OLP probably the better as they have an easier time winning in 905 than NDP does as well as almost no NDP supporters have PCs as second choice, whereas a minority of OLP supporters would go PC in an NDP-PC race.  At same time Howarth is a lot more popular than Del Duca and often leadership #'s are lead indicators so reason to believe Howarth will improve and Del Duca fall.  By same token OLP has higher ceiling as most NDP supporters would be willing to go for them if that is what it takes to get rid of Ford and OLP probably more acceptable to soft PC supporters than NDP is.

Still I think as explained above, all three parties do have a path to majority.  PCs probably favoured to win most seats but not certain.  By same token its majority or bust for Ford and good chance he falls short of a majority meaning very real possibility it is 1985 all over again where PCs win most seats, but NDP-Liberals form an agreement and defeat him on throne speech.

[lilTommy]

We've had some polling since May, about 5 of them...but fairly "all over the place"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

From May4th to June 7th
PC:  32%, 36%, 33%, 34%, 37%
NDP:  22%, 25%, 28%, 25%, 33%
OLP:  36%, 28%, 27%, 26%, 22%

The PC base looks to be about 30%, at 37% they "could" win re-election with the vote split on the left/centre. But it would be close since the OLP (using most recent poll) are pulling from the PCs almost exclusively (NDP won 33% in 2018). It's obvious the "liberal" brand is strong, and that's because in Ontario the federal Liberals and provincial Liberals are pretty synonymous, unlike out west. It's fairly easy for someone to just sit with the OLP if they are not committed. Del Duca is a terribly boring and uncharismatic leader and does not have the "progressive" pull that Wynne did, add that to both Wynne and Coteau not running again in 2022; OLP fundraising has been pretty terrible. But we know the OLP base is 20%. Will centre/CR OLP-PC voters move back to the OLP? maybe in some urban ridings I could see that, the NDP could be hoping for that... a shift of say 2-5% from the PCs to the OLP would flip about a dozen seats to the NDP I suspect. Or could we see a rallying of the anti-ford vote moving to the NDP, rather then being a ideological vote we could see an anti-ford vote coalesce around the NDP (if Del Duca and OLP again are seen as too weak, not able to win, etc). Both is what the NDP want, a tack-to-the-right for the OLP, rally progressive/urban/young/minority/anti-ford voters.
It's still too early since the Province just moved into stage 2... it may come down to the fall/winter when the PCs will start to push an austerity agenda to "get back into the fiscal good books" (I just can not see them going any other way) and how the province reacts to what their plans are.  

Also while polls will change, I do think PCs are more likely to overperform polls than under for simple reason their vote skews heavily towards older voters who are more likely to show up.  By contrast NDP more likely to underperform for exact same reason.  Liberal support though should be close to accurate as support pretty even across age groups.  At same time Ford is pretty hated by left so I think you will see left coalesce to some degree.  OLP probably the better as they have an easier time winning in 905 than NDP does as well as almost no NDP supporters have PCs as second choice, whereas a minority of OLP supporters would go PC in an NDP-PC race.  At same time Howarth is a lot more popular than Del Duca and often leadership #'s are lead indicators so reason to believe Howarth will improve and Del Duca fall.  By same token OLP has higher ceiling as most NDP supporters would be willing to go for them if that is what it takes to get rid of Ford and OLP probably more acceptable to soft PC supporters than NDP is.

Still I think as explained above, all three parties do have a path to majority.  PCs probably favoured to win most seats but not certain.  By same token its majority or bust for Ford and good chance he falls short of a majority meaning very real possibility it is 1985 all over again where PCs win most seats, but NDP-Liberals form an agreement and defeat him on throne speech.

I think the take so far is pretty spot-on.

Here's my take on the "905", I really dislike this term to describe a region of voters. The 905 stretches from west of Belleville along the lake/401 up into York and Barrie, then south into Hamilton/Niagara. This is a huge area that actually votes rather differently depending on the Region within.
York - pretty OLP-PC swingy; in 2014 the OLP won all but 1 seat, in 2018 the PCs won them all. This is an NDP dead zone for the most part, they came second in two seats, 1 was a tie (23% for both the NDP and OLP, the other both the OLP and NDP were below 20%)
Durham - in 2018 the PCs won all but 1, that 1 being NDP Oshawa. the NDP moved into the clear second place choice though, pulling at least 30% in each riding. This region is much more mixed, and a three-way battle then many think. In 2014 the OLP held 3, PCs 1 NDP 1. The NDP tended to be the spoiler vote here too, where they pull from usually leads to the other party winning. That might change this election to the OLP being the spoiler. If the OLP starts to pull from the PCs. Ajax "could be" winnable for the NDP, they were less the 4000 votes away from beleaguered Rob Phillips (the former Finance minister who called it in from a tropical vacation during the travel ban). Still a very working class, unionized suburb, but diversifying away with more professionals to the benefit of Progressive parties as Torontonians move here for cheaper, larger housing.  
Peel - stark divide between Brampton and Mississauga; the NDP won 3 of the 5 Brampton seats and was less then 500 votes from winning Brampton West where they are running a "star" candidate this time. On the other hand Mississauga swings en-mass with the government. in 2014 the OLP won every seat, in 2018 the PCs won every seat. The only serious NDP winnable seat is M-Malton, it's the Brampton effect I think and that before the 2018 redistribution parts of this seat were in the seats held by Jagmeet Singh when he was an MPP.
Halton- similar to York, it's an OLP-PC swing region.
Hamilton-Niagara - of the 11 (ish) seats the NDP hold 7 and the PCs 4; the urban, industrial seats going NDP (Hamilton, St. Catharines, NFs) while the largely rural or suburban/xurban seats going PC. Brantford-Brant was only about 600 votes from being NDP won.

When people usually think "905" what they are typically thinking of is Halton/Peel/York, which is generally the OLP/PC battle (minus Brampton now provincially) and maybe Durham.

[mileslunn]

In general I would describe 905 belt like the following.  Obviously not all of province, but is most swingy and important.  416 tends to go Liberal and only in meltdown do Tories breakthrough while NDP usually except in Liberal meltdown limited to a few Downtown core.  Southwestern and Eastern Ontario have more your classical rural/urban divides with Tories more or less having a lock on rural ridings while urban NDP/Liberal and only battlegrounds are the few suburban and few mixed urban/rural ones.  Northern Ontario more Liberal/NDP, but your traditional blue collar type so quite distinct from your downtown progressives.  But due to heavy reliance on government funding, tend to dislike Tories less over populism but more worried about austerity which is very unpopular there.

Durham: A mix of rural in Eastern and northern parts, more blue collar white working class around Oshawa while more diverse middle class suburbs in western parts.  Tories dominate rural parts while closer you get to city, weaker they get.  NDP strong in Oshawa and some spillover but Oshawa is more traditional blue collar so they win when focus on pocket book issues and avoid woke SJW stuff.  Oshawa somewhat like Red Wall seats Boris Johnson won and Obama-Trump post industrial towns in Midwest.  NDP should hold it as Jennifer French good MPP, but its one Tories certainly can win in right circumstances.  Liberals tend to be stronger as you get closer to city.

York: Very much a centre-right area.  Little tolerance for right wing populism, but Liberals here tend to usually come from the fiscally conservative wing of party.  Thus Tory/Liberal battleground and NDP very weak.  Has large Jewish, Italian, Iranian, and Chinese community and each of those tend to lean right but be fairly moderate.  This probably the worst part of the province for NDP.  Probably best for Tories in 905 percentage wise, but unlike other parts, lack the splits on left while in Durham Tories don't need as high a share of the popular vote to win as they do here.

Peel: Brampton has large Sikh community so very influenced by politics there and all parties can under right conditions win there.  Mississauga is essentially Liberal first, Tory second, NDP third.  Thus in Liberal-Tory races, Liberals usually dominate it, even when they lose (see federally 2008).  But in Tory-NDP races, then usually goes Tory (see 2011 federally and 2018 provincially) so if Liberals win or move up to opposition, they likely take back all the seats.  Tories only hold them if they keep Liberals in third place while NDP only flips any if they are in majority territory.  Since Tories have much higher floor than NDP, when Liberals implode, more may swing NDP, but enough Blue Liberals go Tory to put them over the top. 

Halton: More your fiscally conservative but socially progressive.  Fairly white although less so than in past.  Generally most affluent and most educated.  In many ways it is more like Tory remain areas in London and your Romney-Biden suburbs in US.  Ford's populism probably a liability here while Del Duca being a Blue Liberal likely helps him so long as party stays ahead of NDP.  Kind of area where Tories like Caroline Mulroney provincially or Michael Chong federally would do well. 

Hamilton: NDP wins big in inner city, suburbs more three way split while Tories dominate rural parts but even there, Flamborough-Glanbrook is vulnerable as its a lot more suburban than it was even a decade ago.

Niagara: Liberals have mile wide, inch deep support so if winning a majority, competitive here, but if they implode do poorly.  Tories strongest in rural parts but can under right conditions win urban.  Niagara Falls is more a Wayne Gates rather than NDP riding.  Niagara Falls big on tourism so all three parties normally competitive.  Fort Erie more blue collar populists so good for NDP historically but more for right today.  Niagara on the Lake more rural and large senior population thus used to be solidly conservative, but as many boomers retire there, becoming more Liberal friendly.  St. Catharines probably stays NDP, but it did go Tory federally under Harper, but not sure how winnable it is today.  Niagara Centre I could actually see Tories winning some day.  Very much a working class area so again much like Red Wall seats Johnson in UK won and Obama-Trump areas.  Long term I wouldn't be surprised if Tories do better in Niagara Centre than Burlington due to current re-alignments

[King of Kensington]

Durham, Halton, Peel and York are Toronto's "collar counties."

[MaxQue]

Durham, Halton, Peel and York are Toronto's "collar counties."

Aren't the collar counties very white?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Durham, Halton, Peel and York are Toronto's "collar counties."

Aren't the collar counties very white?

Definitely much more so than the four "collar regions" of the GTA, but race isn't as much of a decisive factor in OnPoli.

[mileslunn]

Durham, Halton, Peel and York are Toronto's "collar counties."

Aren't the collar counties very white?

Not as much as they used to be.  Its about an 80/20 split now while used to 95/5.  Not a lot of African-Americans, but large Hispanic and Asian in pockets and you have a few communities right on border with large African-American community.

For 905 belt, Peel is most diverse, York not far behind.  Durham and Halton were in past fairly white, but in last decade have changed a lot so much less white than past.  Milton interesting one as when Lisa Raitt was first elected in 2008, her riding was 85% white, when she lost in 2019, only 55% white.

[Holmes]

I wouldn't call them African-Americans in Canada.

[mileslunn]

I wouldn't call them African-Americans in Canada.

First paragraph was in relation to Chicago collar counties not 905 belt as one earlier was comparing them to 905 and another saying how they are different.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I wouldn't call them African-Americans in Canada.

Reminds me of when some American newsreader called Nelson Mandela an "African-American."

[beesley]

I wouldn't call them African-Americans in Canada.

Reminds me of when some American newsreader called Nelson Mandela an "African-American."

There was one black (Ghanaian British) girl at my school, and she was definitely referred to as African-American (amongst other things) on multiple occasions.

[adma]

Durham, Halton, Peel and York are Toronto's "collar counties."

Aren't the collar counties very white?

Definitely much more so than the four "collar regions" of the GTA, but race isn't as much of a decisive factor in OnPoli.

And keep in mind, too, that some of the most Conservative parts are also the most ethno-racialized--especially the Jewish and Chinese element in York Region...

[King of Kensington]

"Collar regions" or just the regions is just an attempt to come with an alternative name.

Durham and Halton seem the most "North American"-like in terms of suburbs, while Peel and southern York Region feel the most distinctly GTA/Canadian.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

"Collar regions" or just the regions is just an attempt to come with an alternative name.

Durham and Halton seem the most "North American"-like in terms of suburbs, while Peel and southern York Region feel the most distinctly GTA/Canadian.

Durham and Halton are rapidly-changing too. Oakville and especially Milton have seen a huge influx of South Asians in recent years, while Ajax has been majority-minority for a while now. The GTA doesn't have the same "white flight suburbia" phenomenon as many parts of the US, in fact recent immigrants are increasingly likely to settle in the suburbs in the first place nowadays instead of taking the old "move to Toronto and branch out" path

[mileslunn]

Haven't seen a lot of polls recently so be interesting if Ford still down from bungling third wave or as things open up if he has rebounded?  I know in approval from Leger its been a mix.  Was in low 50s prior to third wave while fell to 30s during it and now back in 40s.  I would think right now as people get vaccinated and economy re-opens, it will be good for incumbents everywhere but probably the excitement on this will largely have died off by next June.

[lilTommy]

Just saw the Q2 fundraising numbers in Ontario:
https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1417180940246388741

PCPO: $2,100,000
ONDP: $1,160,000
OLP: $206,000

Highest-ever second quarter in a non-election year for ONDP (pulled that from an NDP twitter guy!)

Have zero idea of the impact but yikes for the OLP! I did see that Q2 is generally not a huge Q for fundraising, nor is it the most "important". Still...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Time to bump this thread

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Three ON polls out recently:

EKOS: 34.8, 26.6, 26.3, 4.9, 7.5 (Other)
Abacus: 37, 28, 25, 5, 2.5
Innovative: 36, 35, 22, 5, 2

Innovative is clearly the outlier here, they do tend to have a Liberal house effect. But overall, the PCs in the mid-30s with the Liberals having a slight edge over the NDP has been the recent trend. Ford's handling of COVID in the next few months could end up being decisive.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Add another one from Mainstreet.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1483935643147321351?cxt=HHwWjoCy9d3m_...

It's looking like the election will come down pretty much entirely to vote splitting.

On the left the battle seems to be between between the OLP's credibility as a traditional governing party despite perceived corruption, incompetence and a lack of grassroots support or fundraising and the NDP's actual status as the opposition despite Horwath failing to even come close when conditions were much more favourable last time. Of course the OLP doesn't exactly have strong leadership either, and the end result of this stoppable force meeting a movable object is a statistical tie, the only scenario that could give Ford a second term with less than 35% of the vote.

But Doug Ford has splitting of his own to worry about this time, with no less than three new parties to his flank: the New Blue Party, the Ontario Party and the Ontario First Party. Of the three theoretically the OFP has the biggest base of support since it's led by Randy Hillier, probably the most famous of the expelled PC MPPs, and is officially supported by Maxime Bernier and the PPC. But it isn't officially registered yet so it's the farthest from actually running candidates.

The OP is Derek Sloan's latest attempt to get back into Parliament. Fat chance. But they actually managed to pick up Chatham-Leamington MPP Rick Nicholls, which could make the riding interesting since he's probably the most locally popular of the expelled MPPs and C-L was one of the best ridings for the PPC at almost 15%.

NBP is run by political activist Jim Karahelios and his MPP wife Belinda. They've been around the longest (well, technically the OP has been around longer but it was hijacked by Sloan more recently) and probably have the most EDAs but also the least notable candidates.

If they worked together they might even do well but instead it looks like they'll pull a BC Conservatives and collapse due to discoordination and infighting. But if they did coordinate, or if one of them rose above the rest and was able to get candidates in most of the province, then Doug Ford would have a big problem. He's lucky COVID (probably) won't be the #1 issue when the election rolls around, and my guess is that he's going to make a big deal of declaring Mission Accomplished and ending restrictions before then to defuse the anti-lockdown energy on his flank.

[Pericles]

So am I right to think the left-wing vote is very volatile? So it would all come down to the campaign, how the leaders do and particularly how they stand up against each other in events like debates.

[adma]

On the left the battle seems to be between between the OLP's credibility as a traditional governing party despite perceived corruption, incompetence and a lack of grassroots support or fundraising and the NDP's actual status as the opposition despite Horwath failing to even come close when conditions were much more favourable last time. Of course the OLP doesn't exactly have strong leadership either, and the end result of this stoppable force meeting a movable object is a statistical tie, the only scenario that could give Ford a second term with less than 35% of the vote.

Considering how Horwath got 33.59% vs Ford's 40.50% and earned 40 seats (the most for *any* official opposition party in modern times, save the '85 dead-heat), "failing to even come close" is a bit of an overstatement, particularly for a hitherto perennial-3rd party (save fleeting intervals in 43/45/75/87/90) with the lingering stigma of the Rae years and without big corporate donors or a galvanized MSM machine behind it.  However, the ONDP *still* doesn't have big corporate donors or a galvanized MSM machine behind it (all of that is still hardwired t/w the Libs); plus, Doug Ford's gaslighting tendencies haven't given the ONDP the official opposition profile or oxygen necessary--thus the various signals that Team Horwath might be reverting to 3rd-party form.  (And as for the Libs, the perceived corruption/incompetence as anything terminally fatal was basically a hyped-up '18 thing.  But they still have the infrastructure of their federal siblings as backup, in case their present lack of official party status is crippling in and of itself.)

In fact, the way she's positioned, I'd argue that Horwath is at least as much of a to-be-watched sleeper factor in '22 as she was in '18--and she's always been more broadly "attractive" and "popular" among the electorate than naysayers (who almost invariably tend to be male) would have it.  But again: her party's always had that "infrastructure problem".  (I remember, surprisingly close to e-day, venturing into ridings like Scarborough Centre where the NDP finished a very competitive 2nd, and seeing nothing but Liberal and PC signage on the main streets as if the old status quo still held.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So am I right to think the left-wing vote is very volatile? So it would all come down to the campaign, how the leaders do and particularly how they stand up against each other in events like debates.

Pretty much, yeah. The Liberal brand is stronger in Ontario by default, when Ontarians want to kick out a Tory government, they have always gone to the Liberals (the NDP did win an election in 1990, but they unseated an incumbent Liberal government, not PC). So that's what they have going for themselves. But the other fundamentals suggest that the NDP is stronger - they got more votes and vastly more seats in 2018, their fundraising is better, and the NDP leader is more well-known and popular (though neither she nor the new Liberal leader are exactly political dynamite).

The Tories will try to hold on to the 35ish percent support they have - the Mainstreet poll is an outlier, all others have them in the mid-30s. Barring a catastrophe, I don't think anyone who supports them now is likely to change their minds. The key will be whether one centre-left party can unite the anti-Tory vote - and in the event of a minority, an anti-Tory coalition.