Ontario Election 2022

[adma]

Most recent Mainstreet Poll: https://www.ipolitics.ca/dashboards/ontario

PC: 39.2
OLP: 25.8
NDP: 24.1
OTH: 7.5
GPO: 3.4

Seat projections:
PC: 76
NDP: 24
OLP: 9
GPO: 1
Toss-up: 14

I think the projections are a little too harsh on the Liberals, because as I've said before, 2018 isn't a good baseline year to project numbers from. But yeah, if the PCs are able to keep this much daylight between themselves and their opponents, a majority won't be a huge challenge.

Remember, though, that superficial "harsh on the Liberals" appearances are likely subsumed within the tossup column (though even there, I agree that straight projection methodology doesn't quite illuminate things).

Also, we're so far absent a campaign where voters can really *engage* to the leaders and what they have to offer.  But a forewarning about Ford being a notoriously gaslighty politician--that is, in his personal races or those involving his family (municially, at least), he can have a knack of making challengers look utterly irrelevant, like flies to be swatted away.  By that measure, you can picture him building on his seat lead so that inner-city rumps are all that are remaining of the opposition--that is, that entire toss-up number (if not the specific seats deemed toss-up) collapsing into the PC camp, and what's left is "cities gonna city", a little like Austin relative to the rest of Texas...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Most recent Mainstreet Poll: https://www.ipolitics.ca/dashboards/ontario

PC: 39.2
OLP: 25.8
NDP: 24.1
OTH: 7.5
GPO: 3.4

Seat projections:
PC: 76
NDP: 24
OLP: 9
GPO: 1
Toss-up: 14

I think the projections are a little too harsh on the Liberals, because as I've said before, 2018 isn't a good baseline year to project numbers from. But yeah, if the PCs are able to keep this much daylight between themselves and their opponents, a majority won't be a huge challenge.

Remember, though, that superficial "harsh on the Liberals" appearances are likely subsumed within the tossup column (though even there, I agree that straight projection methodology doesn't quite illuminate things).

Also, we're so far absent a campaign where voters can really *engage* to the leaders and what they have to offer.  But a forewarning about Ford being a notoriously gaslighty politician--that is, in his personal races or those involving his family (municially, at least), he can have a knack of making challengers look utterly irrelevant, like flies to be swatted away.  By that measure, you can picture him building on his seat lead so that inner-city rumps are all that are remaining of the opposition--that is, that entire toss-up number (if not the specific seats deemed toss-up) collapsing into the PC camp, and what's left is "cities gonna city", a little like Austin relative to the rest of Texas...

All very good points, although I think the Ford brand's ability to dominate opponents will be a little more muted in this election compared to 2018, let alone during the municipal days.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

In the 2011 federal election, the NDP and Liberals were basically tied in the popular vote in Ontario (25-26% each) but the NDP ended up with twice as many seats.

I guess you're right, although I noticed a few examples where local factors may make a bigger impact on riding results than their model suggests. For example, the incumbent NDP MPPs in Beaches--East York and Kingston and the Islands are retiring, and the Liberals are running strong candidates in Mary-Margaret McMahon and Ted Hsu, respectively - yet their riding projections put the NDP ahead by 5-12 pts respectively.

I think their projections are done through general swing + regional and demographic numbers. Considering how wacky regional polling tends to be in these elections, that might also be impacting their projections.

[beesley]

A quirk of that projection is that Toronto-St. Paul's becomes the Liberals' only safe seat in Toronto: Scarborough-Guildwood is a Tossup and the two Don Valley seats are shaded lighter.

Their methodology also means that Thunder Bay-Atikokan is listed as safe, which in theory ought to be a  tougher fight than either Don Valley riding, but we'll see.

[King of Kensington]

It was remarkable to see Jill Andrew pull off a win in St. Paul's.  And there actually is a pretty solid NDP base in the western half of the riding.  But it's almost impossible to see her holding on unless the OLP really tanks and really under-performs among urban progressives.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

A quirk of that projection is that Toronto-St. Paul's becomes the Liberals' only safe seat in Toronto: Scarborough-Guildwood is a Tossup and the two Don Valley seats are shaded lighter.

Their methodology also means that Thunder Bay-Atikokan is listed as safe, which in theory ought to be a  tougher fight than either Don Valley riding, but we'll see.

Don Valley West at least should be a decent Tory pickup opportunity given the current numbers. In 2014 and 2018, it was a leader's seat, which gave the Liberals a boost there. But Wynne isn't running for re-election, Tories have a star candidate in Mark Saunders, and DVW is consistently one of the more Tory-friendly 416 seats in federal elections.

[beesley]

A quirk of that projection is that Toronto-St. Paul's becomes the Liberals' only safe seat in Toronto: Scarborough-Guildwood is a Tossup and the two Don Valley seats are shaded lighter.

Their methodology also means that Thunder Bay-Atikokan is listed as safe, which in theory ought to be a  tougher fight than either Don Valley riding, but we'll see.

Don Valley West at least should be a decent Tory pickup opportunity given the current numbers. In 2014 and 2018, it was a leader's seat, which gave the Liberals a boost there. But Wynne isn't running for re-election, Tories have a star candidate in Mark Saunders, and DVW is consistently one of the more Tory-friendly 416 seats in federal elections.

Thanks for filling me in.

[toaster]

The ONDP numbers in Don Valley West were artificially high last time after it was clear Kathleen would be stepping down and admitted defeat before the election, many thought she might even resign the seat after the election.  The NDP is usually below 10% in this riding which helps OLP.

[jaichind]

The polling looks pretty good for PC but what are the chances of OLP-NDP tactical voting denying PC a majority?

[DL]

The ONDP numbers in Don Valley West were artificially high last time after it was clear Kathleen would be stepping down and admitted defeat before the election, many thought she might even resign the seat after the election.  The NDP is usually below 10% in this riding which helps OLP.

On the other hand in 2018 the NDP just ran a "paper candidate" in DVW and spent no money and put no resources in. This time the NDP is running Irwin Elman the former Ontario Child Advocate and they seem to be prioritizing the riding. Interesting that both the PCs and NDP are running and star candidates while the Liberals a running a complete nobody in that seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That could easily just be a hubristic waste of resources though - not unknown in Canada!

[DL]

I'm not suggesting the ONDP will win Don valley West - just that they may do better than would be expected based on a pure extrapolation of a province-wide swing would indicate. Contrary to stereotypes DVW has a lot of low income heavily ethnic areas that are not unlike areas where the NDP is very competitive in places like Scarborough...with no pressure to vote strategically to save Kathleen Wynne and with the NDP making more of an effort - i could see them maintaining a decent vote share there

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP targetted Eglinton Lawrence in 2015, how did that work out?

[adma]

The ONDP numbers in Don Valley West were artificially high last time after it was clear Kathleen would be stepping down and admitted defeat before the election, many thought she might even resign the seat after the election.  The NDP is usually below 10% in this riding which helps OLP.

On the other hand in 2018 the NDP just ran a "paper candidate" in DVW and spent no money and put no resources in. This time the NDP is running Irwin Elman the former Ontario Child Advocate and they seem to be prioritizing the riding. Interesting that both the PCs and NDP are running and star candidates while the Liberals a running a complete nobody in that seat.

Actually, Amara Possian did run a reasonably "visible" campaign within a no-hope riding in '18.  However, in the federal Orange Crush in '11, their candidate genuinely was paper/invisible and a talking point for the fact...

[DL]

The NDP targetted Eglinton Lawrence in 2015, how did that work out?

You know at the start of the campaign in 2015 polling had the NDP in the high 20s in Eglinton-Lawrence...then when the Trudeau Liberal tide rose it collapsed the NDP vote to 7% on election day.

Don Valley West has VASTLY better demographics for the NDP than does Eglinton-Lawrence. If Steven del Duca finds a way to duplicate what Trudeau did federally in 2015 and the Ontario NDP vote collapses to less than 20% (both very unlikely IMHO), the Liberals will win the Ontario Liberals win DVW easily and the NDP will be lucky to get over 10%. If on the other hand the NDP stays in second place and the Liberals only get a bit of a dead cat bounce compared to 2018 - the NDP vote in DVW will likely be respectable, though likely not enough to win....In an NDP surge context almost every Liberal vote could go NDP - but it would take a "wave election" to win DVW

[adma]

The NDP targetted Eglinton Lawrence in 2015, how did that work out?

You know at the start of the campaign in 2015 polling had the NDP in the high 20s in Eglinton-Lawrence...then when the Trudeau Liberal tide rose it collapsed the NDP vote to 7% on election day.

Don Valley West has VASTLY better demographics for the NDP than does Eglinton-Lawrence. If Steven del Duca finds a way to duplicate what Trudeau did federally in 2015 and the Ontario NDP vote collapses to less than 20% (both very unlikely IMHO), the Liberals will win the Ontario Liberals win DVW easily and the NDP will be lucky to get over 10%. If on the other hand the NDP stays in second place and the Liberals only get a bit of a dead cat bounce compared to 2018 - the NDP vote in DVW will likely be respectable, though likely not enough to win....In an NDP surge context almost every Liberal vote could go NDP - but it would take a "wave election" to win DVW

I wouldn't say "vastly"; in fact, I'd call it a bit of a draw.  However, DVW *does* have a super-node of NDPish demographics: Thorncliffe--but that isn't enough to elect a social democratic party riding-wide; in UK terms, it's more like a token council-housing vote-sink Labour ward within an otherwise solidly Tory/Lib Dem council.

Eg-Law has no such super-node; or, the more proletarian-ethnoburban NDP-compatible places are generically W of the Allen Rd S of Lawrence and W of Bathurst N of Lawrence (places which arch-Dipper Howard Moscoe long ruled on municipal council.)  And conversely, the *super-super* rich neighbourhoods which cover most of the N part of DVW (i.e. those where NDP typically polls 0-5% other than within a few isolated Carluke Cres-type apartment nodes, and which cancel out any NDP-demo ballast Thorncliffe might carry) are comparatively limited in Eg-Law, mainly in the Armour Heights far NE...

[King of Kensington]

The difference between Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence isn't exactly Westmount vs. Mount Royal (both of which the orange wave "missed" in 2011 - but by rather different degrees).

It's hard to imagine an NDP wave taking in DVW under any circumstances.*  Maybe if they win 100 seats or something.

*Westmount is in a riding more comparable to St. Paul's - and the ONDP already won that in 2018.  DVW has a lot less NDP-compatible territory than either.

[DL]

I would say that demographically Don Valley East is much more fertile ground for the NDP than is Don Valley West

[adma]

I would say that demographically Don Valley East is much more fertile ground for the NDP than is Don Valley West

Absolutely there; and it *was* more authentically a 3-way, or at worst 2 1/2-way, race in '18 (and federally in '11).

[King of Kensington]

I wouldn't say "vastly"; in fact, I'd call it a bit of a draw.  However, DVW *does* have a super-node of NDPish demographics: Thorncliffe--but that isn't enough to elect a social democratic party riding-wide; in UK terms, it's more like a token council-housing vote-sink Labour ward within an otherwise solidly Tory/Lib Dem council.

I'm not even sure if DVW being the Premier's own seat made much of a difference in 2018, given that Eglinton-Lawrence was also a Liberal/Tory race and the NDP got 18% of the vote in both.  DVW is the wealthiest riding in Ontario by most measures (highest average income, highest share of households in the top decile etc.)  While it does have Thorncliffe it's on the edge of the riding, it's offset by upper middle class to super-wealthy territory that dominates the riding.  An argument that the "NDP can win because of Thorncliffe Park" isn't really going to convince the Brahmin liberals of North Toronto and Leaside.

[King of Kensington]

I suppose one could argue that ridings like King-Vaughan and Carleton are "wealthier" than DVW or St. Paul's because they have higher median HH incomes.  But that's more due to a higher floor or a smaller share in the bottom 50% of the income distribution, few apartments or renters, no social housing etc. 

[King of Kensington]

Average HH income

Don Valley West  $216,158
Oakville  $177,283
University-Rosedale  $170,832
Eglinton-Lawrence  $162,674
St. Paul's  $155,470
Oakville North-Burlington  $146,529
King-Vaughan  $145,923
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill  $137,070
Carleton  $134,517
Mississauga-Lakeshore  $130,832

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The polling looks pretty good for PC but what are the chances of OLP-NDP tactical voting denying PC a majority?

Not very likely. Tactical voting (or strategic voting, as Canadians call it) isn't as sophisticated on this side of the pond. Most strategic left-wing voters tend to just back whichever of the Liberals or the NDP seem more likely to win provincewide, with riding-specific dynamics not playing as big a role as in the UK.

There's definitely a progressive dream scenario where the strategic vote goes NDP in NDP-favourable areas and Liberal in Liberal-favourable areas, reducing Ford to a minority and allowing a coalition to defeat him. In some parts of the province, it's pretty obvious who an anti-Tory voter should back, but there are also a lot of three-way races, and even Liberal-NDP races (and unlike in the UK where Tories in Lib-Lab constituencies might back the Libs, Canadian Tories don't necessarily prefer the Libs over NDP). This complicates strategic voting a lot.

The other thing is, while many NDP/Liberal voters don't see much difference between the parties and are often willing to switch over (the "promiscuous progressive" phenomenon), the party establishment and machinery hate each other. This election is likely to be particularly vicious, because the NDP is terrified of falling back into third place and the Libs are terrified of staying in third place. Neither party has any incentive to encourage strategic voting or "give up" ridings where they could at least finish second, because this election has the potential of determining which of the anti-Tory parties emerges as the more dominant one in Ontario.

[adma]

The polling looks pretty good for PC but what are the chances of OLP-NDP tactical voting denying PC a majority?

Not very likely. Tactical voting (or strategic voting, as Canadians call it) isn't as sophisticated on this side of the pond. Most strategic left-wing voters tend to just back whichever of the Liberals or the NDP seem more likely to win provincewide, with riding-specific dynamics not playing as big a role as in the UK.

Well, riding-specific dynamics *can* play a part, as the aforementioned discussion of seats like Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence demonstrates.  However, much as in the UK, it'd only work in the event that the NDP gained the upper hand.

There's definitely a progressive dream scenario where the strategic vote goes NDP in NDP-favourable areas and Liberal in Liberal-favourable areas, reducing Ford to a minority and allowing a coalition to defeat him. In some parts of the province, it's pretty obvious who an anti-Tory voter should back, but there are also a lot of three-way races, and even Liberal-NDP races (and unlike in the UK where Tories in Lib-Lab constituencies might back the Libs, Canadian Tories don't necessarily prefer the Libs over NDP). This complicates strategic voting a lot.

The other thing is, while many NDP/Liberal voters don't see much difference between the parties and are often willing to switch over (the "promiscuous progressive" phenomenon), the party establishment and machinery hate each other. This election is likely to be particularly vicious, because the NDP is terrified of falling back into third place and the Libs are terrified of staying in third place. Neither party has any incentive to encourage strategic voting or "give up" ridings where they could at least finish second, because this election has the potential of determining which of the anti-Tory parties emerges as the more dominant one in Ontario.

And in that crossfire, a critical point is all too often forgotten--the matter of subtracting *Conservative* votes, as opposed to the votes of one another.  Thus all that bickering while the ruling party chortles.  (Indeed, going back to '99, there were cases when second-term Harris Tory incumbents probably had their shares *elevated* thanks to voters rolling their eyes at the strategic-opposition crossfire--sort of like, "you're both goofs, we're sticking with the devil we know".)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Well, riding-specific dynamics *can* play a part, as the aforementioned discussion of seats like Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence demonstrates.  However, much as in the UK, it'd only work in the event that the NDP gained the upper hand.

For sure. Eglinton--Lawrence would be the perfect example of a riding where a strategic anti-Tory voter should back the Grits. The opposite would be the case somewhere like Essex or Oshawa where the NDP is naturally stronger than the Liberals - and for some really riding-specific cases, Waterloo and Niagara Falls, where the popularity of NDP incumbents Catherine Fife and Wayne Gates is a bigger factor than demographic predictors.

Then we also get weird ones like all the Brampton ridings, which are "naturally" Liberal, but the NDP made significant gains in 2018 (really, going back to Jagmeet Singh's provincial win in 2011), yet the Ford brand has a lot of resonance. Or perhaps somewhere like Ottawa West--Nepean, where all three parties could make a case for being the favourites to win - although given Ford's particular unpopularity in Ottawa and the general anti-Tory shift of the city in recent years, it may not be so. In ridings like those, strategic voting is really tricky and with strong PC numbers it could easily backfire for a large number of strategic left-wing voters.