When will the next British general election be held?

[brucejoel99]

I'll guess that the Tories replace Truss with Rishi by the end of the month & that if the unrest for an election call hasn't forced one by the end of the year, then they limp on to a mid-Oct. 2024 election. (Ofc, I'd expect the Tories to be Tories & limp on to the last possible Thurs. in Jan. 2025 if they could, but they can't since winter elections suck.)

[Horus]

Gut says late next year.

[Aurelius]

June or July 2023

[TheSaint250]

Going to guess next year

[Coldstream]

2024, the Tories won’t call an election they know they are going to lose - and they will want memories of the last few months of catastrophe to fade.

[CumbrianLefty]

June or July 2023

Calling one *just* before the new boundaries are due to take effect makes little sense (on the current schedule they might become law at the very end of the summer 2023 parliamentary session)

If we don't get one fairly soon, its probably not happening until 2024 - however many might demand an election before then.

[Senator Incitatus]

2024, the Tories won’t call an election they know they are going to lose - and they will want memories of the last few months of catastrophe to fade.

I think this is a far riskier and stupider approach than they realize, and therefore the one they will take.

[Coldstream]

2024, the Tories won’t call an election they know they are going to lose - and they will want memories of the last few months of catastrophe to fade.

I think this is a far riskier and stupider approach than they realize, and therefore the one they will take.

Eh, current polling shows them getting wiped out. I’m not sure there’s much of a risk to waiting at this point, I don’t think people can get any angrier at them than they are now.

On the doorstep the only people they have left are the very elderly who’ve voted for them their whole lives, and even they are pretty disenchanted.

Sure it could get better…but I don’t see any thing they’ve done so far that would bring people back.

[Senator Incitatus]

2024, the Tories won’t call an election they know they are going to lose - and they will want memories of the last few months of catastrophe to fade.

I think this is a far riskier and stupider approach than they realize, and therefore the one they will take.

Eh, current polling shows them getting wiped out. I’m not sure there’s much of a risk to waiting at this point, I don’t think people can get any angrier at them than they are now.

On the doorstep the only people they have left are the very elderly who’ve voted for them their whole lives, and even they are pretty disenchanted.

Sure it could get better…but I don’t see any thing they’ve done so far that would bring people back.

Current polling does show them getting wiped out, and that's without needlessly and selfishly delaying a popularly-demanded election (and a bunch of those very elderly dying off).

The main danger I foresee is a more credible party to their right emerging on the argument that the Tories and their economics have flatly failed. If they're polling low enough for long enough, that proposition suddenly has wings. And if a global crisis is on the doorstep, the low polling will start to look rosy.

[Coldstream]

2024, the Tories won’t call an election they know they are going to lose - and they will want memories of the last few months of catastrophe to fade.

I think this is a far riskier and stupider approach than they realize, and therefore the one they will take.

Eh, current polling shows them getting wiped out. I’m not sure there’s much of a risk to waiting at this point, I don’t think people can get any angrier at them than they are now.

On the doorstep the only people they have left are the very elderly who’ve voted for them their whole lives, and even they are pretty disenchanted.

Sure it could get better…but I don’t see any thing they’ve done so far that would bring people back.

Current polling does show them getting wiped out, and that's without needlessly and selfishly delaying a popularly-demanded election (and a bunch of those very elderly dying off).

The main danger I foresee is a more credible party to their right emerging on the argument that the Tories and their economics have flatly failed. If they're polling low enough for long enough, that proposition suddenly has wings. And if a global crisis is on the doorstep, the low polling will start to look rosy.

100% agreed that this is a major danger for them going forward if they continue to poll so lowly. Whilst 56% of the country would rather a Labour government than a Tory government, I don’t believe 56% wants a left of centre government so a new credible right wing party could (theoretically) be a threat a la Reform in Canada 1993. I was actually having this discussion at CLP this evening!

Although until/unless a credible right wing challenger emerges I think it’s a risk worth taking (delay). I don’t think Farage has the will to come back, and without him I don’t see Richard Tice, Lawrence Fox or Continuity SDP making the breakthrough - though I’d agree it’s possible.

Also paradoxically I’m not convinced people do want a general election/will care it’s being delayed. The 3 elections 2015-19 really annoyed people and although it’s been 3 years it’s not exactly been a politics free 3 years and I think the fatigue is still there - so I’m not 100% convinced delaying will hurt them (though I agree it’s certainly possible).

[Senator Incitatus]

-snip-

I agree with most or all of what you say and I'm only speculating about the hypothetical world in which the election is actively delayed against popular will rather than simply passively not called.

[icc]

-snip-

I agree with most or all of what you say and I'm only speculating about the hypothetical world in which the election is actively delayed against popular will rather than simply passively not called.

And what is the difference between those two things in your mind?

[Senator Incitatus]

-snip-

I agree with most or all of what you say and I'm only speculating about the hypothetical world in which the election is actively delayed against popular will rather than simply passively not called.

And what is the difference between those two things in your mind?

Whether or not the public actually does demand an election to remove the Tories from power.

[icc]

-snip-

I agree with most or all of what you say and I'm only speculating about the hypothetical world in which the election is actively delayed against popular will rather than simply passively not called.

And what is the difference between those two things in your mind?

Whether or not the public actually does demand an election to remove the Tories from power.

The public has no mechanism to 'demand' an election.

[CumbrianLefty]

-snip-

I agree with most or all of what you say and I'm only speculating about the hypothetical world in which the election is actively delayed against popular will rather than simply passively not called.

And what is the difference between those two things in your mind?

Whether or not the public actually does demand an election to remove the Tories from power.

The public has no mechanism to 'demand' an election.

And people almost always say they want an early election when asked that question by polls.

(same with hypothetical referendums)