Ontario Election 2022

[adma]

Essex will be a weird one. PCs seem to have the advantage because Natyshak is leaving, it voted CPC federally twice, and the margin was small in 2018. But this is a fringe-right-friendly kind of place, so a lot of it will depend on whether they primarily split the right (thus helping the NDP), or primarily split the populist bloc (thus helping the PCs, who have governed in basically a mainstream Conservative way despite Ford's early reputation). My hunch is that, in a place like Essex, this might benefit the NDP more. Unlike C-K-L where the NDP still saw an increase in 2018 at the Liberals' expense, in Essex, the NDP lost quite a bit of support to the PCs. This seems to suggest that there is a larger constituency of these "Horwath 2014-Ford 2018" voters who go for the most populist option, and saw Ford as that guy. Ford has largely been a disappointment to these voters, having governed in a more "GTA Conservative" manner, which is more true to the PC Party's constituency and ideology than the rhetorical populism of 2018. So I think Essex might stay NDP if they can get past or near 30% - if the NDP finishes in the mid-20s or below, they're not winning here.

"Mid-20s or below" would be sinking to Howard Hampton-era levels--under the present leadership circumstance, even 30% would count as sore underperformance.

Mid-20s or below would not be "Howard Hampton levels", that's essentially how Horwath did in 2011 and 2014, and Hampton never crossed 20%. Based on the current polls at least, the NDP is averaging in the mid-20s, and 30% would not be an underperformance - according to every pollster other than Angus Reid, it would actually be an overperformance. Now I think we both subscribe to the theory that the NDP will end up outperforming current polls once the campaign kicks off, because the Ontario Liberals are much weaker than the Liberal brand, but that's just speculation, we don't really know.

I was referriing to mid-20s and below in *Essex*, not province-wide, i.e. I misconstrued your point (though yes, the idea of winning w/only 30% of the vote *is* a bit out-in-left-field, even w/all the opposition splits on the right imaginable)

[lilTommy]

Horwath's persona isn't limited to being in opposition against Ford, like one of the posts above mentions.  Watch the Queens Park tapes from when she was the Leader of the 3rd party, in opposition to Kathleen Wynne's Liberals. Much the same type of questioning, I think when every single Queen's Park speech is hyperbolic, and "outrageous", it takes away from things that Ford is doing that are truly awful. Anyway, if that's how she chooses to engage in debate, that's fine. I don't think anyone is saying she shouldn't be allowed to.  I think for me, it's just not something that I'm attracted to as a voter. I've voted for Andrea's ONDP in each of the elections I've been able to vote (She's been there THAT long), so maybe there's fatigue. I do agree that the last election was probably her best chance. I hope she wins, because her policies would benefit the most Ontarians, and for the most part I think she does do what is "Right" (except for some reason she still believes Catholics should have their own discriminatory Education system). I'm someone who moved from one of those small union towns to Toronto, and what it means to be an NDP supporter is very different, whereas what it means to be a Liberal or OPC supporter is pretty similar no matter where in the province you are. So I'm curious to see how she will navigate that.

100% agree, (especially on the separate school boards) AND that I moved from a small non-union town to Toronto (oddly from a riding that voted in only 1 ONDP MPP from 75-81, guess which riding LOL).
Anyway, the point is true, Andrea and the ONDP got a lot of heat from urban/professional/leftists when the party took a more populist-left approach in 2014. BUT that style of campaigning targets smaller town, union workers, bread-an-butter issues over the more urban big policy professionals. The ONDP has to straddle this policy line to attract those PC-ONDP voters in places like SWOntario and the North, as well as in the 905. The urban/professional vote has mostly gone ONDP since 2018 (think places like KW, Kingston, London along with Toronto, Hamilton, Windsor. The last two are union cities that have always favoured the ONDP, but are more and more professional cities now. Ottawa is the only hold out where the OLP are still a strong force in the urban ridings. Chalk this to what, federal Liberals/civil service voting? Francophone voting history? The ONDP has maybe 1 or 2 potential gains here, maybe) 
I do think right now there is a huge parked vote with the OLP, it's always been a safe spot for voters to park and there is a lot of Federal Liberal sentiment, especially in ON where the two parties are the most similar.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Essex will be a weird one. PCs seem to have the advantage because Natyshak is leaving, it voted CPC federally twice, and the margin was small in 2018. But this is a fringe-right-friendly kind of place, so a lot of it will depend on whether they primarily split the right (thus helping the NDP), or primarily split the populist bloc (thus helping the PCs, who have governed in basically a mainstream Conservative way despite Ford's early reputation). My hunch is that, in a place like Essex, this might benefit the NDP more. Unlike C-K-L where the NDP still saw an increase in 2018 at the Liberals' expense, in Essex, the NDP lost quite a bit of support to the PCs. This seems to suggest that there is a larger constituency of these "Horwath 2014-Ford 2018" voters who go for the most populist option, and saw Ford as that guy. Ford has largely been a disappointment to these voters, having governed in a more "GTA Conservative" manner, which is more true to the PC Party's constituency and ideology than the rhetorical populism of 2018. So I think Essex might stay NDP if they can get past or near 30% - if the NDP finishes in the mid-20s or below, they're not winning here.

"Mid-20s or below" would be sinking to Howard Hampton-era levels--under the present leadership circumstance, even 30% would count as sore underperformance.

Mid-20s or below would not be "Howard Hampton levels", that's essentially how Horwath did in 2011 and 2014, and Hampton never crossed 20%. Based on the current polls at least, the NDP is averaging in the mid-20s, and 30% would not be an underperformance - according to every pollster other than Angus Reid, it would actually be an overperformance. Now I think we both subscribe to the theory that the NDP will end up outperforming current polls once the campaign kicks off, because the Ontario Liberals are much weaker than the Liberal brand, but that's just speculation, we don't really know.

I was referriing to mid-20s and below in *Essex*, not province-wide, i.e. I misconstrued your point (though yes, the idea of winning w/only 30% of the vote *is* a bit out-in-left-field, even w/all the opposition splits on the right imaginable)

Ah yeah that makes sense. For sure, in Essex, there's just no way the NDP will drop below 30%, even with weird splits.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The urban/professional vote has mostly gone ONDP since 2018 (think places like KW, Kingston, London along with Toronto, Hamilton, Windsor. The last two are union cities that have always favoured the ONDP, but are more and more professional cities now. Ottawa is the only hold out where the OLP are still a strong force in the urban ridings. Chalk this to what, federal Liberals/civil service voting? Francophone voting history? The ONDP has maybe 1 or 2 potential gains here, maybe)  

I mean, when you say the "urban/professional vote has mostly gone ONDP since 2018", you're really only talking about one election, and a historically bad one for the Liberals at that. I think the urban left goes to whichever party has a better chance of beating the Tories, but not all of these ridings are the same. Like, Toronto-St Paul's and Spadina-Fort York are more "naturally Liberal" than Toronto-Danforth or Parkdale-High Park.

You're spot-on about Ottawa. Lots of Francophones, highly educated and white-collar, dominated by the civil service and the tech sector, and I'd add my anecdotal evidence from living there that Ottawa has a distinctly big-L Liberal "vibe" that other cities in Ontario don't have as much of. The ONDP can pick up Ottawa West-Nepean if the Liberals struggle, but that's about it. Carleton, Kanata-Carleton, Nepean and Orleans are too suburban and well-off to vote NDP, and Ottawa South and Vanier were literally the most Liberal seats in 2018, with the OLP winning both by 10pt+ margins in their worst ever election. I don't think they can blow these.

I do think right now there is a huge parked vote with the OLP, it's always been a safe spot for voters to park and there is a lot of Federal Liberal sentiment, especially in ON where the two parties are the most similar.

Yeah this is probably the reason the OLP is outpolling the ONDP. Ontarians tend to default to federal brands in the off-season, but when the writ drops, they can distinguish between them. Case in point - the OLP was outpolling the ONDP as late as April 2018, before collapsing during the writ

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Today's Leger poll basically represents the best-case scenario for the Tories. 37% support isn't hugely impressive, but the opposition is split almost evenly. Although, the Liberals' 31% and 33% support in the 416 and 905 respectively is pretty good for them, even if they don't rebound elsewhere in the province, just having a decent showing in the GTA could prevent a PC majority and put the Liberals in the driver's seat of an anti-Tory alliance.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

[King of Kensington]

While the post-industrial centres of southwest Ontario are a much better fit for the NDP than the Liberals for class reasons.

Not just the blue collar cities.  The ONDP was making inroads among the white collar/middle class vote in SW Ontario before the 2018 Liberal collapse - think of by-election wins in Waterloo and London West.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

While the post-industrial centres of southwest Ontario are a much better fit for the NDP than the Liberals for class reasons.

Not just the blue collar cities.  The ONDP was making inroads among the white collar/middle class vote in SW Ontario before the 2018 Liberal collapse - think of by-election wins in Waterloo and London West.

This is a good point, I think we're seeing a broader split among progressive voters, where the Liberals remain the preferred centre-left provincial party in Toronto/GTA (except for the most left-wing parts of Toronto + Singh coattails in Brampton) and Ottawa, while the ONDP is taking over that vote in the rest of the province, both the blue-collar/working class vote (Windsor, Hamilton etc) and the more white collar/uni-educated areas (Waterloo, London North-Centre and West, etc).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

[adma]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

anti-lockdown sentiment is starting to spread beyond the far-right, especially now that almost everyone is vaccinated and rhetoric has increasingly become that vaccine passes will be require boosters.

[DC Al Fine]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

anti-lockdown sentiment is starting to spread beyond the far-right, especially now that almost everyone is vaccinated and rhetoric has increasingly become that vaccine passes will be require boosters.

Agreed. Plenty of normal youngish people who aren't anyone's idea of "far right" are increasingly irritated with the status quo. They might not be protesting, but they're increasingly rolling their eyes at the latest round of restrictions or ignoring them outright. In my province, we're supposed to keep our social group to a consistent group of ten. Does anyone seriously believe most of the kids at Dalhousie University are actually sticking to a ten person bubble? I know I don't.

Applying that to the election, there's a risk to the progressive parties if their rhetoric on the biggest issue of the day is out of step with a large portion of their base. That's not a prediction of realignment or a far-right surge, but it might hurt their chances of getting the youth turnout needed to defeat Ford.

[adma]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

anti-lockdown sentiment is starting to spread beyond the far-right, especially now that almost everyone is vaccinated and rhetoric has increasingly become that vaccine passes will be require boosters.

Agreed. Plenty of normal youngish people who aren't anyone's idea of "far right" are increasingly irritated with the status quo. They might not be protesting, but they're increasingly rolling their eyes at the latest round of restrictions or ignoring them outright. In my province, we're supposed to keep our social group to a consistent group of ten. Does anyone seriously believe most of the kids at Dalhousie University are actually sticking to a ten person bubble? I know I don't.

Applying that to the election, there's a risk to the progressive parties if their rhetoric on the biggest issue of the day is out of step with a large portion of their base. That's not a prediction of realignment or a far-right surge, but it might hurt their chances of getting the youth turnout needed to defeat Ford.

But *that* kind of normal-youngish cohort might be the sort that might as well have *already* been in the Ford PC camp in '18, or part of Ford Nation at any time before that.  The party-party TikTokkers  who grew up in McMansions, IOW.

Otherwise: sure, there's young folk irritated at said "status quo".  But then they look the other way at such things as the Freedom Convoy and those who participate in the same, and if they are in *any* way at all thoughtful or culturally astute, realize how fellow travellers like that poison the anti-status-quo well.  And it'd be *that* which they'd be impelled to vote against, if they're impelled to vote progressive at all...

[mileslunn]

Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

Do you think she'll get another writ period though? She's been NDP leader for nearly 13 years now and 2022 will be her fourth election, and that kind of leadership longevity is very rare, even by NDP standards. Unless the NDP wins this election (or forms government with some deal with the Liberals), it's hard to imagine her getting a fifth kick at the can.

By "next", I mean "this", i.e. 2022, as opposed to 2026 (or earlier).

And of course, the *other* factor that could give oxygen to the so-called "split" NDP/Lib opposition: a split in the *right*, in case forces like Randy Hillier's Ontario First gain momentum...

Possibly, but but the right-of-Tories is significantly more divided in Ontario, than they were federally. Instead of the right wing criticism of the Tories uniting around the PPC with a couple sideshows, we have three squabbling pygmies duking it out. I have a hard time seeing someone break out of that mess to challenge Ford.

Yeah, I don't really see the right-of-Tories taking much oxygen out of the PCs. If the PPC is any indicator of the strength of this brand of politics, it suggests that any "right-of-tory" surge will happen in either:

1. Very right-wing places, particularly in rural Southwestern Ontario. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Haldimand-Norfolk are good examples where the PPC got 14% and 11% respectively, but barring some major change, these aren't places the PCs have to worry about. I guess Hillier brings Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston into this column, but again, Tory margins are high and the centre-left is not very competitive there.

2. "Left-populist" areas, like Windsor-Tecumseh, London Fanshawe, Nickel Belt, and most famously, Timmins-James Bay where not only did the PPC get 13%, but this mainly came at Charlie Angus' expense (whether this was due to lower indigenous turnout, etc, that is to be seen after the poll-by-polls come out). In any case, these are places that the Tories need not worry about.

The part of Ontario that the Tories will absolutely need to worry about holding onto is the 905 and the outskirts of the 416. Broadly speaking, this area saw the PPC's worst performance in the province.

Essentially, the places that saw the biggest surge in PPC support were either places the Tories just won't win, or places where they just won't lose. The places where the Ford PCs could actually lose seats, are not very conducive to the PPC. So while I wouldn't completely write off these fringe movements on the right, it's not clear to me that this is going to be Ford's biggest problem.

Largely true, but I can think of a few where could be deciding factors.  Again only if election close will these matter.  Right split could cost PCs Niagara Centre, Essex, Oshawa, Brantford-Brant, and Cambridge.  First three they don't have but have been trending rightward so potential pickups while latter two were marginals.

But in 905 belt, agree PPC is irrelevant and same in 416 suburbs or suburban Ottawa.  In rural Southwestern Ontario, PCs will win those no matter what while Northern Ontario and a few urban industrial ones like Windsor-Tecumseh aren't going PC irrespective of splits on right.

[mileslunn]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

anti-lockdown sentiment is starting to spread beyond the far-right, especially now that almost everyone is vaccinated and rhetoric has increasingly become that vaccine passes will be require boosters.

Agreed. Plenty of normal youngish people who aren't anyone's idea of "far right" are increasingly irritated with the status quo. They might not be protesting, but they're increasingly rolling their eyes at the latest round of restrictions or ignoring them outright. In my province, we're supposed to keep our social group to a consistent group of ten. Does anyone seriously believe most of the kids at Dalhousie University are actually sticking to a ten person bubble? I know I don't.

Applying that to the election, there's a risk to the progressive parties if their rhetoric on the biggest issue of the day is out of step with a large portion of their base. That's not a prediction of realignment or a far-right surge, but it might hurt their chances of getting the youth turnout needed to defeat Ford.

Absolutely.  Things like restaurant closures or theatre closures hurt young people most in jobs.  And likewise 2 years seems like a lot longer when young than old and if young chances of getting really sick or dying of COVID-19 much lower than when older.  Still risk, but usually when younger, you tend to feel invincible, especially amongst young males.

On young people and restrictions, two recent examples are FDP in Germany and Liberal Initiative in Portugal.  Both classical liberal and latter more libertarian and their support heavily skewed younger.  While FDP normally part for well to do, many younger working class voted for them just because they wanted restrictions ended.

At same time people have short term memories so as long as no more lockdowns between now and election, I doubt except for your hardcore anti-lockdown types will this be a big issue.  Off course if a new variant arrives, puts Ford in horrible position.  Either lockdown or staying open will anger some so needs to hope no new major variants pop up before election.  And based on past, good chance are next variant doesn't come until Summer or Fall but who knows with the virus.  Likewise I think death rates in places with no restrictions will be key to watch.  If they are no higher than places with many, then easy to run on drop them all.  Before Omicron, generally places with most restrictions did better in preventing deaths than those with relatively few.  But with Omicron, correlation seems much weaker.  In Europe, England is least restrictive while Netherlands most restrictive yet results not much different.  Here in Canada, Western provinces not doing much worse than Eastern whereas with Delta wave you saw impact of restrictions as Alberta & Saskatchewan hit hardest and they were by far the loosest.

[beesley]

Who are the big star candidates this election? I know they are often announced late, but there seems to be a lack of them, barring existing political and civic figures like Ted Hsu and Irwin Elman.

[DL]

Who are the big star candidates this election? I know they are often announced late, but there seems to be a lack of them, barring existing political and civic figures like Ted Hsu and Irwin Elman.

What constitutes bieng a "star candidate" these days? There have been a few other semi "stars" - the NDP had former longtime Ajax mayor Steve Parish in Ajax (he was dumped as candidate today) and  Harvey Bischoff the President of OSSTF (high school teachers union) is running in for the NDP in Brantford-Brant and Irwin Elman the former child advocate of Ontario in Don Valley West.

The Green are running former Environmental Commissioner Dianne Saxe in University-Rosedale but i doubt she gets more than 5% of the vote...

The Liberals are running some low profile ex-city councillors here and there...but not much in the way of "supernovas" - part of the problem is that really talented accomplished people are realizing what grueling, thankless job it is to be an MPP and they just don't want to do it!  

[adma]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

anti-lockdown sentiment is starting to spread beyond the far-right, especially now that almost everyone is vaccinated and rhetoric has increasingly become that vaccine passes will be require boosters.

Agreed. Plenty of normal youngish people who aren't anyone's idea of "far right" are increasingly irritated with the status quo. They might not be protesting, but they're increasingly rolling their eyes at the latest round of restrictions or ignoring them outright. In my province, we're supposed to keep our social group to a consistent group of ten. Does anyone seriously believe most of the kids at Dalhousie University are actually sticking to a ten person bubble? I know I don't.

Applying that to the election, there's a risk to the progressive parties if their rhetoric on the biggest issue of the day is out of step with a large portion of their base. That's not a prediction of realignment or a far-right surge, but it might hurt their chances of getting the youth turnout needed to defeat Ford.

Absolutely.  Things like restaurant closures or theatre closures hurt young people most in jobs.  And likewise 2 years seems like a lot longer when young than old and if young chances of getting really sick or dying of COVID-19 much lower than when older.  Still risk, but usually when younger, you tend to feel invincible, especially amongst young males.

On young people and restrictions, two recent examples are FDP in Germany and Liberal Initiative in Portugal.  Both classical liberal and latter more libertarian and their support heavily skewed younger.  While FDP normally part for well to do, many younger working class voted for them just because they wanted restrictions ended.

Though when it comes to younger people and their restlessness about lockdowns, it really depends on which direction they'd seek to pass the blame--that is, especially in the case of Canada & Ontario, it's a little more complicated than simple "libertarian" restlessness w/status quo.  Or as w/the present protests, their ire could just as well be directed at the freedom-yahoos who drag the pandemic out and force the restriction issue.  IOW an irritation that's not so much migrating *beyond* the far right, as it's being directed *at* the far right.

And that's something which progressive parties can take advantage of, together w/exploiting the notion that Doug Ford's somehow bungled the lockdown issue.  Of course, at the opposite right-libertarian end, the Ontario Proud forces that swayed '18 to Ford could try and make that option once again attractive for millennial voters...

[mileslunn]

I think on lockdowns, it will be tough to put full blame on Ford as opposed to a year ago as if you look at jurisdictions globally, there aren't many that have done better than Ontario or at least by significant margin.  Virtually everywhere in Europe and Americas has done worse.  Even Australia is now worse for cases per capita although not deaths.  I think if Ontario was like UK or US being one of the worst, that would work much more effectively.

That is not to say most young people support the libertarian Randy Hillier types of no restrictions.  Its more a lot wondering why still having them 2 years after.  Randy Hillier libertarian types wanted none from beginning.  And also a lot are fine with some restrictions like vaccine passports, masks, and even capacity limits so its not a binary choice of full lockdown or drop all rules, there is lots in between.

[adma]

That is not to say most young people support the libertarian Randy Hillier types of no restrictions.  Its more a lot wondering why still having them 2 years after.  Randy Hillier libertarian types wanted none from beginning.  And also a lot are fine with some restrictions like vaccine passports, masks, and even capacity limits so its not a binary choice of full lockdown or drop all rules, there is lots in between.

And again, that "lots in between" might for many be paradoxically directed more *at* the Hillier types, i.e. they know why we're still having them, and it's because of the Hillierites and Bernierites and the yahoos overrunning Ottawa this weekend.

And those who *are* still restless-but-not-far-right-restless were probably already in some way or another within the longer-term Ford-amenable camp, and the kind targeted by Jeff Ballingall & Ontario Proud in '18.  But otherwise, one'd be painting youth w/too broad a "Neil & Joni = old squares; Joe Rogan = hip and with-it" Spotifygate brush.

[adma]

Another way to look at it: the cultural infrastructure for a youth-friendly "classical liberal" political force in Ontario isn't particularly strong, or else it's been more high-minded wishful think among its proponents.  And if we're talking about FDP-type entities, the fact that we're dealing w/an FPTP electoral system doesn't help matters.  I mean, what would we be talking about at this point?  Jeff Ballingall setting up a "Post Millennial" party for the self-professed freedom-loving-but-not-far-right kiddies?  Sure, Ontario Proud's tactics worked in '18, but that was by placing the emphasis upon Wynne and downplaying its own right-of-centre connections--sort of like how it was "Labour Isn't Working" that elected Thatcher more than raw Thatcherism.  But subsequent "Prouds", national and provincial, have met with mixed success, mainly because they got a little too cocky w/their conservativism, not unlike how the "boys in short pants" wrecked Harper's chance of reelection in '15...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Another way to look at it: the cultural infrastructure for a youth-friendly "classical liberal" political force in Ontario isn't particularly strong, or else it's been more high-minded wishful think among its proponents.  And if we're talking about FDP-type entities, the fact that we're dealing w/an FPTP electoral system doesn't help matters.  I mean, what would we be talking about at this point?  Jeff Ballingall setting up a "Post Millennial" party for the self-professed freedom-loving-but-not-far-right kiddies?  Sure, Ontario Proud's tactics worked in '18, but that was by placing the emphasis upon Wynne and downplaying its own right-of-centre connections--sort of like how it was "Labour Isn't Working" that elected Thatcher more than raw Thatcherism.  But subsequent "Prouds", national and provincial, have met with mixed success, mainly because they got a little too cocky w/their conservativism, not unlike how the "boys in short pants" wrecked Harper's chance of reelection in '15...

Nobody is arguing there's going to be some massive surge of support for moderate conservatism or adoration of Doug Ford by mainstream youth* but the youth vote is famous for low turnout. In particular, I think the more low-frequency youth votes normally political apethtics are probably the most fatigued by restrictions right now. If both the NDP and Liberals are perceived as taking a stance on countinuing the restrictions that migh dampen youth voters turnout and maybe lead to an unexpected quarter of support of Ford from a normally apathetic portion of the populace.

People might think that the truck proters are whackos but still ultimatley be fatigued by the restrictions.


*outside of the ususal weirdos who make-up the youth wing of right-wing parties.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah Adma, I think you're over politicizing this. Here's some recent COVID polling from Angus Reid:



This probably isn't the best wording to measure support for "end all restrictions" but it seems like a perfectly reasonable measure of "I'm tired of and frustrated with restrictions". This poll has half of young women frustrated with restrictions. If half of young women are at all amenable to Doug Ford, he's winning 100+/124 seats next election

The much more plausible interpretation is that there is a large chunk of people in Canada who aren't in any way, shape, or form right wing, but are nevertheless frustrated with the current COVID hawk approach of most Canadian governments.

[DL]

I'm not sure I understand how people being frustrated with Covid related restrictions is good for Doug Ford when he is the one who has imposed all the restrictions on ontario and Ontario has had the longest strictest lockdowns of any jurisdiction in North America. the anti lockdown vote will go for rightwing fringe parties. Those people see Ford as a traitor and sell-out!

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm not sure I understand how people being frustrated with Covid related restrictions is good for Doug Ford when he is the one who has imposed all the restrictions on ontario and Ontario has had the longest strictest lockdowns of any jurisdiction in North America. the anti lockdown vote will go for rightwing fringe parties. Those people see Ford as a traitor and sell-out!

It demobilizes young left-wing voters who are fatigued by the restrictions