Ontario Election 2022

[DC Al Fine]

Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

Do you think she'll get another writ period though? She's been NDP leader for nearly 13 years now and 2022 will be her fourth election, and that kind of leadership longevity is very rare, even by NDP standards. Unless the NDP wins this election (or forms government with some deal with the Liberals), it's hard to imagine her getting a fifth kick at the can.

By "next", I mean "this", i.e. 2022, as opposed to 2026 (or earlier).

And of course, the *other* factor that could give oxygen to the so-called "split" NDP/Lib opposition: a split in the *right*, in case forces like Randy Hillier's Ontario First gain momentum...

Possibly, but but the right-of-Tories is significantly more divided in Ontario, than they were federally. Instead of the right wing criticism of the Tories uniting around the PPC with a couple sideshows, we have three squabbling pygmies duking it out. I have a hard time seeing someone break out of that mess to challenge Ford.

[DC Al Fine]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

anti-lockdown sentiment is starting to spread beyond the far-right, especially now that almost everyone is vaccinated and rhetoric has increasingly become that vaccine passes will be require boosters.

Agreed. Plenty of normal youngish people who aren't anyone's idea of "far right" are increasingly irritated with the status quo. They might not be protesting, but they're increasingly rolling their eyes at the latest round of restrictions or ignoring them outright. In my province, we're supposed to keep our social group to a consistent group of ten. Does anyone seriously believe most of the kids at Dalhousie University are actually sticking to a ten person bubble? I know I don't.

Applying that to the election, there's a risk to the progressive parties if their rhetoric on the biggest issue of the day is out of step with a large portion of their base. That's not a prediction of realignment or a far-right surge, but it might hurt their chances of getting the youth turnout needed to defeat Ford.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah Adma, I think you're over politicizing this. Here's some recent COVID polling from Angus Reid:



This probably isn't the best wording to measure support for "end all restrictions" but it seems like a perfectly reasonable measure of "I'm tired of and frustrated with restrictions". This poll has half of young women frustrated with restrictions. If half of young women are at all amenable to Doug Ford, he's winning 100+/124 seats next election

The much more plausible interpretation is that there is a large chunk of people in Canada who aren't in any way, shape, or form right wing, but are nevertheless frustrated with the current COVID hawk approach of most Canadian governments.

[DC Al Fine]

Adma, if you're referring to a party's COVID position as "pro-sensible" complaining about the Ford Tories using politically motivated labels for their opponents' positions is a bit much.

[DC Al Fine]

How much of a problem are New Blue Party and Ontario Party for PC?    Namely are they stronger in PC strongholds (which would mean no problem for PC) or are they stronger in marginal districts (which would mean plenty of problems for PC)?

We don't have a ton to go on for polling. Many pollsters are still including them under "Other". I'd use PPC results as a rough proxy. I.e. the right of Tory parties will likely do best in rural southwestern Ontario (safe Tory) and northern Ontario (could potentially cost them Parry Sound-Muskoka and some pickups from the NDP).

[DC Al Fine]

FPTP is a fickle mistress for the Liberals.

[DC Al Fine]

Surprised to see the Liberals barely even budge from their 2018 seat count, let alone not reach official party status. Especially if they're leading the NDP in the popular vote.

Also, who's Bobbi Ann Brady? Equally surprised to see an independent victory.

Employee of the long-term retiring PC MPP. He supports her, as Ford imposed a candidate instead of letting the association choose.

Should also note that the PC candidate was active in the local Liberal association until shortly before being appointed as the PC candidate and had a failed run at the Liberal nomination some years back. That race was ripe territory for an Indy win.