Ontario Election 2022

[mileslunn]

In less than a year from now, Ontario votes.  At this point seems all three parties have a path to victory and a very real chance of a minority government, but all three have path to majority as well.  Below are my thoughts on the main three.  Yes Greens will get some votes, but they aren't going to form government and at best might win a second seat.

PCs:  Were struggling pre-pandemic, but Ford's strong handling at first led to a big rebound and strong lead.  However mistakes along the way and mishandling of third wave caused his approval to turn negative and poll numbers to fall.  Still most recent polls show PCs in lead although largely due to strong splits on left.  For Ford to win a second term, he needs a strong recovery and slight uptick in support.  One positive is strongest amongst older voters who are most likely to show up.  Biggest weakness is few have PCs as second choice so if there is a lot of strategic voting, he is very vulnerable.  Also if only wins a plurality of seats, good chance he gets defeated on throne speech.  NDP already made clear they won't prop up Tories.  Liberals said wouldn't prop up a Ford led government but seemed to leave open possibility of propping up a PC lead by another leader.

NDP: Depending on which poll you believe they are around 25%.  To win they need to unite progressive vote.  In their favour, Howarth scores higher on personal approval than Del Duca while against her is Liberal brand scores higher than NDP one.  In particular, very few NDP supporters have PCs as second choice, but while far more Liberals have NDP as second choice than PCs, enough have PCs as second choice that in a two way race that could push them over top.  She is strong amongst millennials while weak amongst older voters, so high turnout much like Trudeau had in 2015 will be essential if she wants to win.

Liberals: After falling to third, many polls show them competitive once again.  Much of that is strong brand image as by nature more Ontarioans identify as Liberals than PCs or NDP.  However Del Duca's approval ratings are not great and that could be his weakness.  Good news is a lot don't know him so if he runs a good campaign can improve that.  Support is fairly even across age groups so doesn't skew heavily towards young like NDP or heavily old like PCs.  Likewise Liberal vote far more efficient than NDP and more importantly better chances of gaining in 905.  Likewise if progressives coalesce around one party, few NDPers will defect to PCs whereas a sizeable minority of Liberals would go PC in an NDP-PC race.  On other hand, leadership matters a lot and polls show he has lowest of three leaders so lots going for him if he can improve leadership #'s.  But if cannot, will be tough to win.

[mileslunn]

Not much provincial polling but be interested how federal election plays out.  Will Ontario follow its history of voting opposites so if Trudeau as expected wins a majority or strong minority, then helps Ford.  Or is public turning against conservatism meaning Ford is in trouble.

[mileslunn]

We've had some polling since May, about 5 of them...but fairly "all over the place"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

From May4th to June 7th
PC:  32%, 36%, 33%, 34%, 37%
NDP:  22%, 25%, 28%, 25%, 33%
OLP:  36%, 28%, 27%, 26%, 22%

The PC base looks to be about 30%, at 37% they "could" win re-election with the vote split on the left/centre. But it would be close since the OLP (using most recent poll) are pulling from the PCs almost exclusively (NDP won 33% in 2018). It's obvious the "liberal" brand is strong, and that's because in Ontario the federal Liberals and provincial Liberals are pretty synonymous, unlike out west. It's fairly easy for someone to just sit with the OLP if they are not committed. Del Duca is a terribly boring and uncharismatic leader and does not have the "progressive" pull that Wynne did, add that to both Wynne and Coteau not running again in 2022; OLP fundraising has been pretty terrible. But we know the OLP base is 20%. Will centre/CR OLP-PC voters move back to the OLP? maybe in some urban ridings I could see that, the NDP could be hoping for that... a shift of say 2-5% from the PCs to the OLP would flip about a dozen seats to the NDP I suspect. Or could we see a rallying of the anti-ford vote moving to the NDP, rather then being a ideological vote we could see an anti-ford vote coalesce around the NDP (if Del Duca and OLP again are seen as too weak, not able to win, etc). Both is what the NDP want, a tack-to-the-right for the OLP, rally progressive/urban/young/minority/anti-ford voters.
It's still too early since the Province just moved into stage 2... it may come down to the fall/winter when the PCs will start to push an austerity agenda to "get back into the fiscal good books" (I just can not see them going any other way) and how the province reacts to what their plans are.   

Also while polls will change, I do think PCs are more likely to overperform polls than under for simple reason their vote skews heavily towards older voters who are more likely to show up.  By contrast NDP more likely to underperform for exact same reason.  Liberal support though should be close to accurate as support pretty even across age groups.  At same time Ford is pretty hated by left so I think you will see left coalesce to some degree.  OLP probably the better as they have an easier time winning in 905 than NDP does as well as almost no NDP supporters have PCs as second choice, whereas a minority of OLP supporters would go PC in an NDP-PC race.  At same time Howarth is a lot more popular than Del Duca and often leadership #'s are lead indicators so reason to believe Howarth will improve and Del Duca fall.  By same token OLP has higher ceiling as most NDP supporters would be willing to go for them if that is what it takes to get rid of Ford and OLP probably more acceptable to soft PC supporters than NDP is.

Still I think as explained above, all three parties do have a path to majority.  PCs probably favoured to win most seats but not certain.  By same token its majority or bust for Ford and good chance he falls short of a majority meaning very real possibility it is 1985 all over again where PCs win most seats, but NDP-Liberals form an agreement and defeat him on throne speech.

[mileslunn]

In general I would describe 905 belt like the following.  Obviously not all of province, but is most swingy and important.  416 tends to go Liberal and only in meltdown do Tories breakthrough while NDP usually except in Liberal meltdown limited to a few Downtown core.  Southwestern and Eastern Ontario have more your classical rural/urban divides with Tories more or less having a lock on rural ridings while urban NDP/Liberal and only battlegrounds are the few suburban and few mixed urban/rural ones.  Northern Ontario more Liberal/NDP, but your traditional blue collar type so quite distinct from your downtown progressives.  But due to heavy reliance on government funding, tend to dislike Tories less over populism but more worried about austerity which is very unpopular there.

Durham: A mix of rural in Eastern and northern parts, more blue collar white working class around Oshawa while more diverse middle class suburbs in western parts.  Tories dominate rural parts while closer you get to city, weaker they get.  NDP strong in Oshawa and some spillover but Oshawa is more traditional blue collar so they win when focus on pocket book issues and avoid woke SJW stuff.  Oshawa somewhat like Red Wall seats Boris Johnson won and Obama-Trump post industrial towns in Midwest.  NDP should hold it as Jennifer French good MPP, but its one Tories certainly can win in right circumstances.  Liberals tend to be stronger as you get closer to city.

York: Very much a centre-right area.  Little tolerance for right wing populism, but Liberals here tend to usually come from the fiscally conservative wing of party.  Thus Tory/Liberal battleground and NDP very weak.  Has large Jewish, Italian, Iranian, and Chinese community and each of those tend to lean right but be fairly moderate.  This probably the worst part of the province for NDP.  Probably best for Tories in 905 percentage wise, but unlike other parts, lack the splits on left while in Durham Tories don't need as high a share of the popular vote to win as they do here.

Peel: Brampton has large Sikh community so very influenced by politics there and all parties can under right conditions win there.  Mississauga is essentially Liberal first, Tory second, NDP third.  Thus in Liberal-Tory races, Liberals usually dominate it, even when they lose (see federally 2008).  But in Tory-NDP races, then usually goes Tory (see 2011 federally and 2018 provincially) so if Liberals win or move up to opposition, they likely take back all the seats.  Tories only hold them if they keep Liberals in third place while NDP only flips any if they are in majority territory.  Since Tories have much higher floor than NDP, when Liberals implode, more may swing NDP, but enough Blue Liberals go Tory to put them over the top. 

Halton: More your fiscally conservative but socially progressive.  Fairly white although less so than in past.  Generally most affluent and most educated.  In many ways it is more like Tory remain areas in London and your Romney-Biden suburbs in US.  Ford's populism probably a liability here while Del Duca being a Blue Liberal likely helps him so long as party stays ahead of NDP.  Kind of area where Tories like Caroline Mulroney provincially or Michael Chong federally would do well. 

Hamilton: NDP wins big in inner city, suburbs more three way split while Tories dominate rural parts but even there, Flamborough-Glanbrook is vulnerable as its a lot more suburban than it was even a decade ago.

Niagara: Liberals have mile wide, inch deep support so if winning a majority, competitive here, but if they implode do poorly.  Tories strongest in rural parts but can under right conditions win urban.  Niagara Falls is more a Wayne Gates rather than NDP riding.  Niagara Falls big on tourism so all three parties normally competitive.  Fort Erie more blue collar populists so good for NDP historically but more for right today.  Niagara on the Lake more rural and large senior population thus used to be solidly conservative, but as many boomers retire there, becoming more Liberal friendly.  St. Catharines probably stays NDP, but it did go Tory federally under Harper, but not sure how winnable it is today.  Niagara Centre I could actually see Tories winning some day.  Very much a working class area so again much like Red Wall seats Johnson in UK won and Obama-Trump areas.  Long term I wouldn't be surprised if Tories do better in Niagara Centre than Burlington due to current re-alignments

[mileslunn]

Durham, Halton, Peel and York are Toronto's "collar counties."

Aren't the collar counties very white?

Not as much as they used to be.  Its about an 80/20 split now while used to 95/5.  Not a lot of African-Americans, but large Hispanic and Asian in pockets and you have a few communities right on border with large African-American community.

For 905 belt, Peel is most diverse, York not far behind.  Durham and Halton were in past fairly white, but in last decade have changed a lot so much less white than past.  Milton interesting one as when Lisa Raitt was first elected in 2008, her riding was 85% white, when she lost in 2019, only 55% white.

[mileslunn]

I wouldn't call them African-Americans in Canada.

First paragraph was in relation to Chicago collar counties not 905 belt as one earlier was comparing them to 905 and another saying how they are different.

[mileslunn]

Haven't seen a lot of polls recently so be interesting if Ford still down from bungling third wave or as things open up if he has rebounded?  I know in approval from Leger its been a mix.  Was in low 50s prior to third wave while fell to 30s during it and now back in 40s.  I would think right now as people get vaccinated and economy re-opens, it will be good for incumbents everywhere but probably the excitement on this will largely have died off by next June.

[mileslunn]

Under that circumstance, I'm not sure whether her star's burned out or just placed under a deep freeze until the next writ period.

Do you think she'll get another writ period though? She's been NDP leader for nearly 13 years now and 2022 will be her fourth election, and that kind of leadership longevity is very rare, even by NDP standards. Unless the NDP wins this election (or forms government with some deal with the Liberals), it's hard to imagine her getting a fifth kick at the can.

By "next", I mean "this", i.e. 2022, as opposed to 2026 (or earlier).

And of course, the *other* factor that could give oxygen to the so-called "split" NDP/Lib opposition: a split in the *right*, in case forces like Randy Hillier's Ontario First gain momentum...

Possibly, but but the right-of-Tories is significantly more divided in Ontario, than they were federally. Instead of the right wing criticism of the Tories uniting around the PPC with a couple sideshows, we have three squabbling pygmies duking it out. I have a hard time seeing someone break out of that mess to challenge Ford.

Yeah, I don't really see the right-of-Tories taking much oxygen out of the PCs. If the PPC is any indicator of the strength of this brand of politics, it suggests that any "right-of-tory" surge will happen in either:

1. Very right-wing places, particularly in rural Southwestern Ontario. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Haldimand-Norfolk are good examples where the PPC got 14% and 11% respectively, but barring some major change, these aren't places the PCs have to worry about. I guess Hillier brings Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston into this column, but again, Tory margins are high and the centre-left is not very competitive there.

2. "Left-populist" areas, like Windsor-Tecumseh, London Fanshawe, Nickel Belt, and most famously, Timmins-James Bay where not only did the PPC get 13%, but this mainly came at Charlie Angus' expense (whether this was due to lower indigenous turnout, etc, that is to be seen after the poll-by-polls come out). In any case, these are places that the Tories need not worry about.

The part of Ontario that the Tories will absolutely need to worry about holding onto is the 905 and the outskirts of the 416. Broadly speaking, this area saw the PPC's worst performance in the province.

Essentially, the places that saw the biggest surge in PPC support were either places the Tories just won't win, or places where they just won't lose. The places where the Ford PCs could actually lose seats, are not very conducive to the PPC. So while I wouldn't completely write off these fringe movements on the right, it's not clear to me that this is going to be Ford's biggest problem.

Largely true, but I can think of a few where could be deciding factors.  Again only if election close will these matter.  Right split could cost PCs Niagara Centre, Essex, Oshawa, Brantford-Brant, and Cambridge.  First three they don't have but have been trending rightward so potential pickups while latter two were marginals.

But in 905 belt, agree PPC is irrelevant and same in 416 suburbs or suburban Ottawa.  In rural Southwestern Ontario, PCs will win those no matter what while Northern Ontario and a few urban industrial ones like Windsor-Tecumseh aren't going PC irrespective of splits on right.

[mileslunn]

Youth turnout (or lack thereof) could be decisive, however. Unlike in the federal election where the Liberals were pretty strong with older voters, most polls including the most recent Leger show the 50+ crowd solidly in the PCPO column. Young voters are strongly opposed to Ford, but older voters are pretty consistently polling in the high-40s for the Tories.

I do think that the liberals and NDP might have a problem in terms of campaning, if they run on Ford not being harsh enough that might make inroads among the older crowds but risks alienating youth voters who view the restrctions as increasinlgy unnesecary and vice versa if they run in the opposite direction.

There isn't really that strong an Ontario younger-voter contingent that views such restrictions in election-breaking terms as "increasingly unnecessary".  Or if it exists, it'd likelier be among previous Ford supporters straying into the Hillier et al camp, a la young Bernier supporters federally--the "Krista Haynes" demographic...

anti-lockdown sentiment is starting to spread beyond the far-right, especially now that almost everyone is vaccinated and rhetoric has increasingly become that vaccine passes will be require boosters.

Agreed. Plenty of normal youngish people who aren't anyone's idea of "far right" are increasingly irritated with the status quo. They might not be protesting, but they're increasingly rolling their eyes at the latest round of restrictions or ignoring them outright. In my province, we're supposed to keep our social group to a consistent group of ten. Does anyone seriously believe most of the kids at Dalhousie University are actually sticking to a ten person bubble? I know I don't.

Applying that to the election, there's a risk to the progressive parties if their rhetoric on the biggest issue of the day is out of step with a large portion of their base. That's not a prediction of realignment or a far-right surge, but it might hurt their chances of getting the youth turnout needed to defeat Ford.

Absolutely.  Things like restaurant closures or theatre closures hurt young people most in jobs.  And likewise 2 years seems like a lot longer when young than old and if young chances of getting really sick or dying of COVID-19 much lower than when older.  Still risk, but usually when younger, you tend to feel invincible, especially amongst young males.

On young people and restrictions, two recent examples are FDP in Germany and Liberal Initiative in Portugal.  Both classical liberal and latter more libertarian and their support heavily skewed younger.  While FDP normally part for well to do, many younger working class voted for them just because they wanted restrictions ended.

At same time people have short term memories so as long as no more lockdowns between now and election, I doubt except for your hardcore anti-lockdown types will this be a big issue.  Off course if a new variant arrives, puts Ford in horrible position.  Either lockdown or staying open will anger some so needs to hope no new major variants pop up before election.  And based on past, good chance are next variant doesn't come until Summer or Fall but who knows with the virus.  Likewise I think death rates in places with no restrictions will be key to watch.  If they are no higher than places with many, then easy to run on drop them all.  Before Omicron, generally places with most restrictions did better in preventing deaths than those with relatively few.  But with Omicron, correlation seems much weaker.  In Europe, England is least restrictive while Netherlands most restrictive yet results not much different.  Here in Canada, Western provinces not doing much worse than Eastern whereas with Delta wave you saw impact of restrictions as Alberta & Saskatchewan hit hardest and they were by far the loosest.

[mileslunn]

I think on lockdowns, it will be tough to put full blame on Ford as opposed to a year ago as if you look at jurisdictions globally, there aren't many that have done better than Ontario or at least by significant margin.  Virtually everywhere in Europe and Americas has done worse.  Even Australia is now worse for cases per capita although not deaths.  I think if Ontario was like UK or US being one of the worst, that would work much more effectively.

That is not to say most young people support the libertarian Randy Hillier types of no restrictions.  Its more a lot wondering why still having them 2 years after.  Randy Hillier libertarian types wanted none from beginning.  And also a lot are fine with some restrictions like vaccine passports, masks, and even capacity limits so its not a binary choice of full lockdown or drop all rules, there is lots in between.

[mileslunn]

I think on restrictions, no one who has getting rid of them as top priority will go for Ford as he has had some of the toughest anywhere in Western world.  But Liberals and NDP have to be careful not to overplay.  Much of their public sector base is pro-lockdown whenever there is a spike (no one wants lockdowns forever), but a lot of millennials are done with them.  Risk is lower and when young, you tend to have a larger social circle so restrictions harder emotionally than when older and have a family so can turn to them for support.  Also its simply risk vs. benefits and for many older people, lockdowns emotionally hard, but they also don't want to get very sick and/or die.  For young people, risk of either is much lower so many feel its worth taking the risk.

I think danger more for OLP and NDP is if seen as too pro-restrictions, many younger voters will just stay home and not vote at all, not go PC or for further right parties.  Further right parties have too many crazies never mind I am not sure most want no restrictions.  I think most just want to lead a largely normal life so are fine with minor ones like indoor masks, vaccine passports, and maybe in some cases capacity limits, but don't like not being able to do things they enjoy or being limited on who they can see.

[mileslunn]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

I think more woke types help NDP in downtown Toronto, but hurt them in more blue collar ridings like Oshawa, Niagara Centre, Essex and target ones like Sault Ste Marie, Kenora-Rainy River, and Brantford-Brant.  Now perhaps based on global trends, these type are shifting away anyways so there is not much they can do about shift and they need to like BC NDP offset this by winning in upper middle class urban ridings to cancel loss of blue collar smaller communities.  With high cost of living, that may be possible as historically if you made six figure salaries, you didn't have to worry about financial difficulties so you voted for a party that would give you a tax cut.

But now with housing so expensive, even many with six figure salaries struggle on affordability front and things like more affordable housing, better public transit, a universal childcare program which are all traditional NDP ideas can be appealing to people in past who would have been too wealthy to vote NDP.  And this group is sort of a meh on SJW stuff unlike many in blue collar areas who find it a huge turnoff. 

[mileslunn]

I think COVID restrictions only a major issue if we see another spike.  If cases continue to fall, it will be largely a non-issue as people have short term memories so in that case people will have largely forgotten ones in past and won't be a huge push for more.  However if things spike, then it could get interesting.  I also think on COVID fatigue its probably more lockdowns or closures of certain businesses and restrictions on activities people oppose as opposed to masks and especially vaccine passports.  Some accept that masks and vaccine passports are way to keep things open.  If OLP and NDP were smart, they would emphasize this and make clear they are against further lockdowns and they favour these so things can stay open.

Still COVID is a tricky one and no one knows what the situation will look like in June either.

[mileslunn]

I would say governing party dropping in polls during elections is really a mixed bag.  In BC, its usually been opposite.  In 2020, 2017 and 2013, governing party went up, flat in 2009 and 2005 while up in 2001 (yes lost badly but NDP started at 15% and finished at 21%).  For federal its a mix too.  Yes went down in 2021, but flat or up slightly in 2019.  Even 2015, most polls put Tories under 30% at beginning and ended up with 32%.  Yes did worse than at beginning in terms of seats, but better in terms of votes and only down in seats in that split on left largely dissipated by election day but with how unpopular Harper was, it was pretty clear progressives would coalesce, just a question of who.

In 2011 and 2008 largely flat and 2006 dropped a fair bit when 2004 dropped a lot in first week but recovered to starting point on final weekend.

For Ontario, governing party went up during campaign in 1999, 2007, 2011, and 2014.  So I would say correlation of which way governing party goes is weak at best.  Now yes Ford could fall, especially if BA2 takes off and things get worse on covid front.

[mileslunn]

What did Paul Miller do anyways to lead to not being able to run?

[mileslunn]

Former Toronto Police Chief, Mark Saunders, is running for the Ontario PCs in Don Valley West (Kathleen Wynne's riding).

Highly doubt he wins as if Wynne wasn't candidate may have won in 2018 (she was fairly popular MPP despite being not so popular elsewhere).  Any PC pick ups more likely to be blue collar ridings like Oshawa, Niagara Centre, and Essex.  Not saying PCs will gain those, but at least have a chance.  This might go for your Bay Street type Tory, but Ford is still seen as too populist even if he toned it down to win here.

[mileslunn]

Nate Erskine-Smith votes on the right? He's pretty much as left as you can go as a Liberal before hitting NDP territory

A lot of NDP partisans really dislike NES because he's eaten their lunch in Beaches-East York.  He gets a higher share of the vote than Maria Minna did in the Chretien days.  His personal popularity and the "Brahmin Liberal-ization" of the Beaches has put the federal NDP out of contention there.  And I'm not sure if the seat can be held provincially either.

People also like him because he speaks his mind and is willing to disagree with his party from time to time.  Parties hate people like that, but voters like it.  Same reason Wayne Long has held Tories close to 2015 levels in Saint John-Rothesay unlike rest of Atlantic Canada where big rebound.

[mileslunn]

A better comparison for NES might actually be Ralph Goodale. The guy just kept winning and winning in a province where being a Liberal candidate usually only wins you a participation trophy. Of course, he kept winning until he lost. Being in Trudeau's cabinet did him no favours in Regina.

Anyway, back to OnPoli. An interesting by-product of the 2018 election is that universal swings are gonna be really bad at predicting Liberal strength. In 2018, personal brand played a big role in the few ridings where the Liberals didn't get absolutely humiliated.

For example, 338Canada says Eglinton-Lawrence will be the 5th most Liberal-friendly seat in the 416, that Mississauga-Lakeshore is the most Liberal-friendly seat in Mississauga, and that Oakville is more likely to go Liberal than Ajax.

Obviously, universal swings are never perfect, but the ridings I mentioned are typically much less Liberal than their surroundings. Expect to see some really bad riding projections this time out.

I think looking at history of riding and demographics as well as issues of day probably a better predictor than uniform swing.  Uniform swing largely a British thing anyways where it seemed to work in past although they now use a thing called MRP, but those polls are expensive and usually survey 10K to 20K thus why they can accurately call ridings.  I don't believe anyone is willing to pay a pollster that much.  They probably do this for parties, which cost a lot of money, but never public.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1529590077961142273?s=20&t=TSU6MhOOK1_K...
Speaking of the 905...

Holy s--- that's a lead. I don't think the PCs even got 50% in the 905 in 2018, in fact I'm pretty sure of it, they didn't cross 50% in most GTA ridings (York Region being an exception).

We could see a pattern this election, where the Liberals gain support in Toronto, Ottawa, and other major cities, the Tories lose support in rural Ontario (to New Blue), but gain support in the 905. Strategically, that's like the dream scenario in a "PCs lose support" election, as this one will likely be unless Ford somehow clears 40. You lose support overall, but gain where it matters most.

It seems big difference in support between Ontario PCs and federal Tories is amongst ethnic communities.  Ford does very well in immigrant communities unlike federal Tories and big reason why in suburban 416 and 905 belt he should win more seats.

Elsewhere I could see PCs gaining some working class seats like Oshawa, Niagara Centre, and Essex which sort of similar to your Obama-Trump areas in US and Red Wall in UK.  Not just in Ontario, but nationally and in other English speaking countries, right has been gaining in traditional working class areas, but this is offset by loss of support in upper middle class areas which are swinging leftward.  Its why Eglinton-Lawrence and maybe Mississauga-Lakeshore and Milton could go Liberal. 

[mileslunn]

If the OLP can't get past 30% they won't even make Official Opposition even if they get more votes than the ONDP.

OLP vote unlike NDP is very spread out which is good when ahead thus as we saw federally, can win vast majority of seats with only a relatively modest lead.  But bad when behind as means fewer areas of concentration.  NDP vote much more concentrated thus can get several seats even in a bad election, but means if get competitive overall, have trouble translating into seats as just run up margins in areas already winning while not enough to flip areas they need to.

[mileslunn]

According to the final it seems like the PCs have been gaining and the Liberals have been trending down in the homestretch and the NDP trending up just a tad.

Final poll by Ipsos says its PC 40, NDP 25, Libs 24.
Nanos says its PC 38, Libs 26, NDP 25.
Mainstreet has it PC 35, Libs 26, NDP 24
Leger has it PC 40 Libs 25 and NDP 24
Frank Graves of Ekos has tweeted that he also has the PCs way ahead with the NDP and Liberals deadlocked at 25% each.

The NDP vote tends to be much more efficient than the Liberal vote (e.g. in the 2011 federal election when Harper won big the NDP and Liberals each took 25% in Ontario but that gave the NDP 22 seats and the Liberals just 11.

I would say Liberal vote is more evenly spread out so when leading in the polls they are more efficient.  Its why they can get over 75 seats with as little as a 5 point lead.  But when behind especially sub 30%, then really bad for them.  NDP at least has enough core areas that even if sub 20% they can still get 15-20 seats whereas Liberals at 20% fall to single digits and even at 25% only in teens not 20s. 

[mileslunn]

Mine are:

PC - 80 (42%)
NDP - 26 (22%)
OLP - 17 (27%)
Greens - 1 (5%)
Others - 0 - 3%

[mileslunn]

Forum’s seat projection model is totally nuts they say the Liberals will win just 6 seats!

Agreed silly, but Liberals could do really bad.  I think Liberals getting in low teens is a very real possibility.  Problem with Liberals in Ontario is support mile wide, inch deep so when ahead they do really well, but when behind, lack of strongholds unlike PCs and NDP means they fall much further.  PCs have a floor around 30 seats, NDP around 15 seats, while OLP floor is single digits.  By contrast PC ceiling is probably in low 80s, NDP 50s, while OLP around 100 seats.  Off course I am talking just in general not any specific election.  Also being to right of NDP but left of Tories means more potential of votes to pick up, but also can lose on both sides not just one like other two.  Yes you have New Blue and Ontario Party to PCs right, but they are so irrelevant at most shaves a few points off.

[mileslunn]

Anyone have breakdown of how regions voted?

I was thinking for main regions

416 - Toronto
905 belt
Hamilton-Niagara
Central Ontario
Southwestern Ontario
Northern Ontario
Eastern Ontario

For sub-regions

Durham
York
Peel
Halton
Hamilton
Niagara
Waterloo
London
Essex County
Ottawa
Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa

[mileslunn]

Anyone have breakdown of how regions voted?

I was thinking for main regions

416 - Toronto
905 belt
Hamilton-Niagara
Central Ontario
Southwestern Ontario
Northern Ontario
Eastern Ontario

For sub-regions

Durham
York
Peel
Halton
Hamilton
Niagara
Waterloo
London
Essex County
Ottawa
Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa

I have figures for some of those:

Metro Toronto (416)
PC - 12 MPPs (+1), 32.2% (-0.6%)
NDP - 9 MPPs (-2), 27.9% (-8.6%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.9% (+5.7%)

Rest of GTA (905)
PC - 29 MPPs (+3), 46.8% (+1.1%)
NDP - 1 MPP (-3), 14.4% (-12.3%)
Lib - 30.3% (+7.6%)

Eastern
PC - 13 MPPs (-1), 41.2% (-1.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 26.8% (+3.7%)
NDP - 2 MPPs, 21.9% (-6.6%)

Northern
NDP - 7 MPPs (-1), 33.4% (-10.9%)
PC - 6 MPPs (+2), 40.5% (+8.3%)
Lib - 11.4% (-4.2%)

The Tory vote dropped the most in Eastern Ontario, as Ottawa continues to drift away from them and the New Blue & Ontario Parties took a bite out of their rural vote.

The Tory vote rose the most in Northern Ontario; in 2018 they went up more than the provincial average (though not the most of any region), illustrating the trend that I've discussed on federal-themed threads here about that region beginning to trend towards the Tories after many years of being weak for them.


Looking at the two biggest blocs, the GTA and the rest, they break down thus:

GTA
PC - 41 MPPs (+4), 40.5% (+0.4%)
NDP - 10 MPPs (-5), 20.2% (-10.7%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.0% (+6.8%)

Rest of Ontario
PC - 42 MPPs (+3), 41.1% (+0.3%)
NDP - 21 MPPs (-4), 26.3% (-9.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs, 18.6% (+2.6%)

What was Southwestern Ontario?