French presidential election, 2022

[Hindsight was 2020]

Apparently French citizens abroad are voting about 90% for Macron

Where are you seeing that?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Macron 60 Le Pen 40

[PSOL]

Blank ballot for me. Both of them can go to hell

Strange choice in a competive election.

This is not a competitive election lol.

[Double Carpet]

Blank ballot for me. Both of them can go to hell

Btw what's the difference between a blank vote and a nul vote?

Thanks

[Mike88]

Blank ballot for me. Both of them can go to hell

Btw what's the difference between a blank vote and a nul vote?

Thanks

Because in France there isn't a ballot but rather voters pick a piece of paper with the candidates name and insert it in an envelope, I assume that a blank vote is just a piece of white paper and a null vote is when a voter puts more than one candidate in the envelope or scribbles something in the paper. However, I'm not sure what happens if a voter casts an empty envelope, maybe that also a blank vote.

[Oryxslayer]

With the 5pm turnout figures, IPSOS is projecting a 72% turnout rate, the lowest since the 1969 Presidential election.

Remind me what the turnout was in round 1? Wasn’t it something like 77% or thereabouts? You would expect some drop off when we know that at least a third of the 22% who voted for Melenchon will not vote

How do we know that? People always sulk and claim not to vote... blah... but in the end they still do it.

Not unless you view it as a choice between getting shot or poisoned. To take a example from a completely different environment: many times the GOP voters who turned out to vote in a California November election don't bother if the contest is D v D and the position is sufficiently minor, if it is major then some will cast protest votes against the incumbent.

Apparently French citizens abroad are voting about 90% for Macron

Where are you seeing that?

This is also getting revealed on the twitter-verse like the overseas department vote. It should not be surprising.

https://twitter.com/LukeFritz64/status/1518085084133220355?s=20&t=_l-3_yUjei...

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1518254330377289729?s=20&t=_l-3_yUjeiUp2cn...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1518251021549686784?s=20&t=_l-3_yUje...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1518252920621383680?s=20&t=_l-3_yUje...

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/athe_red/status/1518259516529332231

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1518251021549686784?s=20&t=_l-3_yUje...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1518252920621383680?s=20&t=_l-3_yUje...

Looks like stronger turnout in the Southwest and weaker in the Northeast, which seems good for Macron. Lots of noise elsewhere though, and of course the drop in IdF is rather noticeable.

A map of the evolution of turnout from the first round would probably be more helpful.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Cmon Macron…..

[Del Tachi]

Vive Le Pen!

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m definitely not a expert on French politics by any means but just skimming through the the turnout map and keeping in mind France does not have a the pure urban-rural divide the US does there really doesn’t look like anything different than what the polls are predicting as Macron areas in the west are turning out for him. Le Pen best chance is to get ungodly levels of blank or protest voting

[Mike88]

Macron's election night party will be in front of the Eiffel Tower.

[Oryxslayer]

Overseas from La Libre:

Venezuela: Macron: 88%, Le Pen : 12%, Participation : 16%

Panama & Jamaica: Macron : 76%, Le Pen : 24%, Participation : 33%

USA Macron Percentages:
- Atlanta: 87,1%, 29.4% Participation
- Boston: 95.5%, 39.2% Participation
- Houston: 86.1%, 36.8% Participation
- Los Angeles: 87.4%, 25.9% Participation
- New York: 93.5%, 40% Participation
- San Francisco: 93.7%, 41.2% Participation
- Washington: 91.3%, 37.1% Participation
- Miami: 76%, 29.2% Participation

Canada Macron Percentages:

- Montreal: 87.7%, 37.9% Participation
- Toronto: 89.6%, 38.7% Participation
- Québec: 74.5%, 39% Participation

Overall, minus Vancouver, including small places like Moncton: Macron : 86%, Le Pen : 14%, Participation : 41%

[MaxQue]

Overseas from La Libre:

Venezuela: Macron: 88%, Le Pen : 12%, Participation : 16%

Panama & Jamaica: Macron : 76%, Le Pen : 24%, Participation : 33%

USA Macron Percentages:
- Atlanta: 87,1%, 29.4% Participation
- Boston: 95.5%, 39.2% Participation
- Houston: 86.1%, 36.8% Participation
- Los Angeles: 87.4%, 25.9% Participation
- New York: 93.5%, 40% Participation
- San Francisco: 93.7%, 41.2% Participation
- Washington: 91.3%, 37.1% Participation
- Miami: 76%, 29.2% Participation

Canada Macron Percentages:

- Montreal: 87.7%, 37.9% Participation
- Toronto: 89.6%, 38.7% Participation
- Québec: 74.5%, 39% Participation

Quebec City is working overtime to become the Canadian version of Miami.

[Umengus]

from la libre, 3 "exit polls" give Macron between 55-58 %.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Vive Macron

[Middle-aged Europe]

Dooomers gonna doom.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Vote for the rich bastard; not the fascist.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

from la libre, 3 "exit polls" give Macron between 55-58 %.

Je prédis quelque chose comme 57-43

[Oryxslayer]

The polls in smaller Commune's have now closed, the larger ones remain open for another hour. The early count will be fed into projection models over the coming hour, for the 8pm projections.

Ipsos projecting  72% turnout/28% abstention, in addition to a significant Blanc vote.

[MABA 2020]

So they release a projection at 8 pm? Is that usually pretty accurate to what the end result ends up being?

[Double Carpet]

So they release a projection at 8 pm? Is that usually pretty accurate to what the end result ends up being?

Normally yes.

[Mike88]

So they release a projection at 8 pm? Is that usually pretty accurate to what the end result ends up being?

Yes, it's a projection based on exit polls and votes counted after 7pm.

[Double Carpet]

So they release a projection at 8 pm? Is that usually pretty accurate to what the end result ends up being?

Yes, it's a projection based on exit polls and votes counted after 7pm.

I think it's just based on a sample of votes counted.