French presidential election, 2022

[PSOL]

The NPA factional struggle is finally going to result in a split as several member organizations leave to back FI and Melenchon. It wholly won’t matter much, but any extra support now means the wider left will have better chances at a microscopic bump in retaining seats.

Don’t bother reading the article, it’s the soon-to-be rump NPA whining about it.

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The LO and NPA candidates have gained like 1% in the polls, well within the margin of error, but possible for them to gain voters since Melenchon is going nowhere and there isn’t enough pressure for tactical voting. Overall there’s like three active campaigns by the lesser known Trotsky-influenced Left; those mentioned and Kassim Esab of the RCC.

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The next decade will be a very rough one for the Francophone world.

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It's very hard to have a favorite candidate in this election.
There are Macron, the far-right candidates, and the best performing left-wing candidate, Melenchon, supported protests against the vaccine pass.

You could just split the ticket and vote LFI for parliament, which is more varied as it is a coalition of collectives, and vote for better candidates like Kasib, Potou, or Arthaud.

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A significant amount of the LR vote around Angela Thatcher will break towards Macron if Zemour or Le Pen makes the runoff, as will a good chunk of Melenchon’s, and and almost all of the PCF vote and social liberal candidate supporters (Taubira, Hidalgo, Jadot).

Macron will be elected again no problem.

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What is the status of Poutou and Kazib?

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Collard's pathway to the Right was pretty unique but recently there has been an influx of the equivalent of concern trolls who are nominally Left but are at this point adverts for the left to extreme Right vote.  Michel Onfray for example basically all but endorsing Zemmour at this point, Brice Couturier and his insane obsession with wokism, Caroline Fourest...there should be a sociological study into these people.

One figure I can't discern is whether Roussel basically wants to incarnate that movement or if he is a more serious communist candidate...

The PCF hasn’t been for communism since the 60s when they complicity endorsed France’s imperialism in Algeria.

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Is Macron basically guaranteed to win?

Yes

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Hollande only takes votes away from Hidalgo, so he’s sinking both of their campaigns and PS’s existence.

I approve wholeheartedly.

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Or, more to the point, the multiplication of left candidates and the mediocre polling both individually and collectively points to one thing in particular - the weakness of the left wing candidates who are standing. The reason they're all floundering in the single figures is that none of them has a message, a line, an anything that is unifying enough or frankly good enough to go beyond that.

Which of course is a endless issue in and of itself. If "The Left" collectively does not think it can get into round 2 against Macron, then all the candidates who actually could excite people stay out and the overall quality lowers. Since nobody dynamic is consolidating the field, other 'B listers' see the B listers that are running floundering and think "well I'm as good as them, I can save us!" And so the field multiplies.

Who are?
IMO fundamental problem is that there aren't enough left-of center voters in France.

That is purely the fault of the centre-left being nonexistent and a joke in France ever since PS’s implosion.

[PSOL]

Or, more to the point, the multiplication of left candidates and the mediocre polling both individually and collectively points to one thing in particular - the weakness of the left wing candidates who are standing. The reason they're all floundering in the single figures is that none of them has a message, a line, an anything that is unifying enough or frankly good enough to go beyond that.

Which of course is a endless issue in and of itself. If "The Left" collectively does not think it can get into round 2 against Macron, then all the candidates who actually could excite people stay out and the overall quality lowers. Since nobody dynamic is consolidating the field, other 'B listers' see the B listers that are running floundering and think "well I'm as good as them, I can save us!" And so the field multiplies.

Who are?
IMO fundamental problem is that there aren't enough left-of center voters in France.

That is purely the fault of the centre-left being nonexistent and a joke in France ever since PS’s implosion.

Yep and Melenchon is the poor victim who makes attempts to build bridges with the left-wing voters he needs, gotchya!

Why allow perpetual losers and wreckers into your party? Melenchon already took several PS machines propped up by reformists, he already has most of the working class vote and it’s not like adding yuppies, trust fund bleeding heart types, and wannabes would do much for him.

Also, Melenchon is the major force of the French centre-left, and boy while he has problems, bottom feeders and turncoats he knows to repel.

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Given that Jadot and Melenchon both did not endorse the primary, would it really matter?

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Unless she has a really good plan to turn things around very quickly, then I really don't see the point in Hidalgo staying in the race. Doing so otherwise will - unless we're seeing a serious case of polling failure - only further damage her image and that of the remnants of her party. She was always a curious choice of candidate given the general field: given that Macron is the incumbent and that there was always going to be a Green candidate, what exactly is the purpose of her candidacy? Other sorts of PS politician could maybe justify themselves under these circumstances, but not her sort. There's no room.

Hidalgo should have waited for 2027, with open seat, Mélenchon rejected after three defeats and with Olympics visibility.

Reading this makes me angry at PS strategists. The PS could have nominated a no-name, then withdrawn to back the EELV (and claimed they were being responsible after 2017), concentrated on the assembly elections then have an untainted and elevated Hidalgo ready to go. It was so obviously a better idea than keeping going now.

if she is a bit of a careerst cadre, the thought was that at least she did have a certain degree of popularity coming out the anti-car stuff in Paris and having a certain degree of an enthusiastic, plus getting comfortably re-elected, that would make that possible.

In a post-Gilet Jaunes France, how is supporting regressive policies like forcing the public transit-deprived exurban dwellers the lack of movement to their jobs a winning electoral strategy. In Francophone Belgium, such policies just led to a collapse of the liberal and machine “left” parties in favor of PTB-PVDA.

The problem outside of espousing bad policies and being unlikable is that the ability for PS to gaslight their opponents and take up all the oxygen is gone with the removal of the PS electoral machinery to Macron, hell, Melenchon, and Taubira in that very order. The average French person does not like for some powerless rando from the Ecolé De bull•••• talk down on them as an election strategy.

The few that are smart here in PS might as well sell themselves to the highest bidder to the eventual woke coalition around Taubira and hope the EELV pays well afterwards.

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What ties do Zemmour and Tariq Ramadan have exactly?

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Why the f••• can’t Melenchon get any good endorsements.

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I think most people would regard Arthaud’s party as a cult, that in mind, can anyone explain why they’ve got more nominees than established party’s like Melenchon, Jadot or Le Pen?

LO most likely contracts its support base on a local level to serve these mayors somehow, either electorally or otherwise.

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I wonder if the Russian invasion of Ukraine could be a factor in France. It could lead to more scrutiny of how LePen, Zemmour and Melenchon support Putin and presumably will cheer on the invasion. There will also be more stories about how Putin funds various far right and far left political parties in France

I'm not a Mélenchon fan but even he condemned the invasion in Ukraine. And which parties of the far left8 are funded by Putin exactly, where did you get this idea ?

We know for a fact that Putin funds LePen's Ralliement Nationale - and its common knowledge that the Russians will funnel money to any politicians or parties in the west that oppose liberal democracy and parrot Putin's talking points - so its hard to belive that he wouldn't be sending money to Melanchon and co

I have my doubts such a conservative government is sending money to Melenchon’s party, a person whose contacts in Russia entirely consist of the social democrats in the Left Bloc who are incredibly opposed to the war in Ukraine and have several mid-level party leaders in jail. Melenchon’s party, made up of social democrats who were previously aligned with parties that backed Trotsky, who established a tradition of #bothsides critiques of the USSR and NATO, would leave en masse if this was discovered by the upper echelons given LFI’s highly democratic and fractured structure.

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It’s obviously going to be Jadot she endorses here.

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I’m interested if there are any financial businessmen who would vote for the likes of Melenchon or Roussel. That 16% for both of them can’t just be professors.

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Melenchon will eventually die or remained infirmed in old age, but the remnants of LFI is quite literally France’s only hope. Do it for the movement.

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I think while Melenchon will outdo polling, he won’t get past 17-18% as the left he could pull is pretty much locked on to their respective pillars. Those wanting to engage in tactical voting over voting for Potou, Roussel, and especially LO have already done so two weeks ago. Meanwhile, I think LO will do not that badly in polling compared to their previous result.

Macron will win easily, albeit it will be close, and to say otherwise is ludicrous.

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Perhaps if someone had Melenchon's campaign skill and Hamon's positions and demeanor, they would have made the 2nd round, and given us a real runoff based on economics. This is really upsetting actually.

Roussel on domestic policy, Hidalgo on foreign policy.

Gross

Anyway, glad that Meluche prevailed in the end and is set to be the undisputed choice in parliament among the French Left™️. He did so by realizing who he should be talking to, and who would reliably support him, and that isn’t appealing to the s•••lib twitterati. He has a good chance to make a mark in 2027 now that he didn’t disappoint his base by sinking with Macron.

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Pls stop disrupting the thread with this crap. thx

At some point the Americans will colonize everything when they have an opening in English to do so, the signs were there for years now.

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Meluche won’t get in second place. Sadly the media attacks dampened things.

Tbh, I don’t even think even himself cares about the race anymore, I’m guessing he’s working on the parliamentary race now.

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Melenchon did the best he could given the circumstances, and anyone not critiquing his campaign in good faith, ie from the real left™️, is wrong. I’m not going to add more because doing it here is frankly a waste of energy best used elsewhere.