UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Blair]

TUSC are celebrating though.

[Blair]

I hear houses are nice in Somerton.

[Blair]

The seat has quite an interesting history; it’s not one of the seats Thatcher won in 1983 (see Darlington, Batley etc) nor is it one of the ones that had huge Labour majorities in say 2010 or 2015.

I suppose the question is whether they would like to get a likely loss* out of the way or to drag things out in the hope that multiple electoral blows don't land in quick succession.

_{*By-elections are inherently unpredictable things but the combination of a) the circumstances b) the national climate and nature of the seat and c) the state of the local Conservative Association is certainly not... ideal from a government perspective, one would assume.}

And (I could be proved wrong on May 5th!) the Labour led council for the city is relatively popular, enough for the deputy leader to run for the seat and not be well shouted down.

[Blair]

Reports that the Tories are struggling to find anyone good- this has actually been a v interesting trend over all their by-elections.

You can get away with it when doing well nationally but in conditions like this…

[Blair]

Ed Balls not standing in Wakefield.

[Blair]

Hahah.

To think two weeks ago they thought it was good politics to bash the bishop.

[Blair]

Yes this is more of a Lib Dem one just based on the type of seat and the ceiling Labour have. I imagine like Shropshire it’s a CLP with 6 members who all hate each other.

I would say the Tories will win it but they lost Shropshire easily which had even less of a liberal tradition and an even stronger history. I’d guess they both have a similar leave vote too..

The hidden story will be the anger among the farming community that is spreading- they’ve been not only ignored but shat on by the Government several times.

[Blair]

The trick was always that enough people in those bits did. Keep those Con percentages down as low as you can and then whack them in the towns - that was the usual tactic.

This is why I screamed and still do when Labour sacked Luke Pollard (who did a lot to raise labours profile on rural issues and made a point of not just talking about buses) under the pretence that Labour doesn’t need rural/farming communities to support us. If there’s a bruise punch it!

The fact it was being briefed that Rees Mogg (who ofc pretends to be in touch with the rural gentry) wanted to cut tariffs on food and essentially spit on U.K. farmers shows the approach this Government has.

[Blair]

Lol someone’s briefing to the Telegraph that Lord Frost should run in Tiverton.

Less than a month after saying he should run in Wakefield.

[Blair]

Tory whips worried this might not be the only South West by-election…

[Blair]

I realised this largely happened because of the Mail on Sunday story which triggered the meeting where this was first leaked.

The Telegraph caused the Paterson by-election as it was a meeting of ex editors led by Charles Moore which led to Boris trying to save him.

Impressive work.

[Blair]

Actually this raises an interesting question - will they want Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton on the same day or a little apart? Get it all out of the way or stagger any blows?

Same day- I was going to say that Wakefield is the easier defence but that just shows how much my brain has been rotted by red wall discourse and how little faith I have in Labours by-election machine…

[Blair]

Wakefield will irrc be only the fourth by election in a Government held marginal seat this century where the opposition is the main challenger.

The interesting thing is the behaviour of voters since Batley- they’ve shown a very strong willingness to vote tactically, and in rather creative ways.

[Blair]

Lol that leaflet.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnHealey_MP/status/1522944025954770944?ref_src=twsr...

[Blair]

Any hunches/guesses on when they have it?

If I was in Government I would want to be delaying it… hope Labours poll lead fades and time it with the Durham announcement just in that vague hope.

On reflection the whole process is mad- it should be easier to resign as an MP and it should simply be ‘X number of working days’ after you resignation is a the by-election date (with carve outs for holidays etc)

[Blair]

Reports that Neil Tractor Parish is thinking of standing as an independent and has raised funds.

Would be hilarious.

[Blair]

Both posts should be a reference point!

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

Bill Bryson said that following by-elections was in itself an eccentric quirk of the British that he never understood- they’re glorious affairs and have actually got a lot more dull. The ones in the 1980s and 1990s (and before) would have daily press conferences, packed public hall meetings and quite vicious scenes too.

Reports that Neil Tractor Parish is thinking of standing as an independent and has raised funds.

Would be hilarious.

Wait, so he will resign only to run again ?

Yes- he very much seemed to be pushed and is the type of loyalist who does what they’re told. He is claiming to want to run to represent the farming community who’ve been buggered in various ways by the Government.

[Blair]

Shropshire was v strange because there was actually barely no liberal tradition at all- I feel the possible scale of tactical voting in 2024 could really cause a lot of surprises.

[Blair]

Simon Lightwood selected for Labour.

A rather rude hunch but wonder if this is a reaction to the fact he very much seemed the spare, rather than the heir on the shortlist.

[Blair]

A rather rude hunch but wonder if this is a reaction to the fact he very much seemed the spare, rather than the heir on the shortlist.

Yeah, if there is genuine local anger at a stitch-up then it can result in support for the non-anointed candidate. The most obvious recent example of this being in Bassetlaw in 2019 where the national party blocked the very popular council leader from standing and instead shortlisted a far left councillor from elsewhere in Nottinghamshire, and a pro-remain former Camden councillor. Local members were so pissed they voted for the latter (of course this being a stitch-up, the NEC forced the Corbynista on them anyways).

In true THIGMOO fashion I believe this was used to attack Keir Starmer- he was accused of not standing up for her and being too much of a Corbynista. It appears v weird now we were fighting over such a an unwinnable seat.

Simon Lightwood selected for Labour.

A rather rude hunch but wonder if this is a reaction to the fact he very much seemed the spare, rather than the heir on the shortlist.

I don't know, he's an obviously strong candidate on paper from a selection point of view (quite a few union endorsements, member of multiple Party panels, Co-op Party membership etc), so I think it's more a case of two 'acceptable' candidates being put forward and the members choosing the one with strong local ties: he's who I expected to be selected anyway! A selection that's rigged for someone is generally that candidate plus one or more candidates picked to be as unappealing to the selectorate as possible.

Oh yeah I think I phrased it badly- it seemed that the other candidate was the one favoured by LOTO (didn’t help that a senior member of LOTO retweeted her launch video!) and seemed like the type usually parachuted in- but yeah on paper he look stronger and has held various local positions.

He did use to work for Mary Creagh- who is not very liked in the seat and is still unpopular- enough so I understand that a lot of senior  people were pleased she didn’t run.

Is the Labour group on the council so hated that couldn’t shortlist a Cllr? Seems strange still.

[Blair]

It's being reported that the writs for both by-elections will be moved tomorrow, which means 23 June for polling day.

A lot sooner than I thought. Interesting.

[Blair]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

He was pictured in front of a cow (subtle!) in the Telegraph but unsure if he’s a farmer too. Then again I don’t know if farming is simply a part of the constituency or the type of seat where every hustings has questions about milk quotas, grain prices and EU directive 1010192

[Blair]

Nominations close for Wakefield next Wednesday and I haven’t even seen a discussion about who the Tory candidate is.

[Blair]

A marked contrast with the recent Tory by-election candidates!

[Blair]

What will all the money be spent on ? Flyers and online ads loose effectivness at a certain point.

Daily leaflet drops (at least after a certain point in the campaign) quite possibly produced differently for different parts of the constituency, hiring venues, various stunts (including large billboards and so on), adverts in the local media, perhaps some full-time staff for the campaign, perhaps market research and/or polling during it, that kind of thing. I never said anything about effectiveness, mind...

Ofc it has often cost them more to do leaflet drops as they have to pay people to do it in a lot of cases.