UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Lord Halifax]

One potential huge issue for Labour is that the by-election is likely to be held on local election day (6th May) where the extremely popular Tory mayor of the Tees Valley (which includes Hartlepool), Ben Houchen, is expected to cruise to a landslide re-election. It's likely that he will have at least some coat tails which will significantly boost the Tory candidate's chances of gaining the seat.

Local politics rarely influence national voting, usually it's the other way round. It seems more likely that Labour's candidate for mayor will gain a bit from Labour supporters voting straight ticket who'd otherwise have voted for Houchen.

[Conservatopia]

One potential huge issue for Labour is that the by-election is likely to be held on local election day (6th May) where the extremely popular Tory mayor of the Tees Valley (which includes Hartlepool), Ben Houchen, is expected to cruise to a landslide re-election. It's likely that he will have at least some coat tails which will significantly boost the Tory candidate's chances of gaining the seat.

Local politics rarely influence national voting, usually it's the other way round. It seems more likely that Labour's candidate for mayor will gain a bit from Labour supporters voting straight ticket who'd otherwise have voted for Houchen.

Spot on.  Plus it's difficult to have "coat tails" when turnout is only 25%.  Nobody cares about the metro mayors.

[beesley]

One potential huge issue for Labour is that the by-election is likely to be held on local election day (6th May) where the extremely popular Tory mayor of the Tees Valley (which includes Hartlepool), Ben Houchen, is expected to cruise to a landslide re-election. It's likely that he will have at least some coat tails which will significantly boost the Tory candidate's chances of gaining the seat.

Local politics rarely influence national voting, usually it's the other way round. It seems more likely that Labour's candidate for mayor will gain a bit from Labour supporters voting straight ticket who'd otherwise have voted for Houchen.

Spot on.  Plus it's difficult to have "coat tails" when turnout is only 25%.  Nobody cares about the metro mayors.

I don't think any metro mayors have coat tails but I think there's already two-tiers of them. Burnham, Street and Rotheram do actually have some sort of presence. I'm sure Houchen appears in the local newspaper a lot, and is obviously more well-known than Jacobs, but because Houchen has no real presence or relevance to national politics I'd be surprised if many voters even knew he was up for election, at least before they receive their poll card. Bowles, Jarvis and Palmer must be even less well-known.

[Conservatopia]

One potential huge issue for Labour is that the by-election is likely to be held on local election day (6th May) where the extremely popular Tory mayor of the Tees Valley (which includes Hartlepool), Ben Houchen, is expected to cruise to a landslide re-election. It's likely that he will have at least some coat tails which will significantly boost the Tory candidate's chances of gaining the seat.

Local politics rarely influence national voting, usually it's the other way round. It seems more likely that Labour's candidate for mayor will gain a bit from Labour supporters voting straight ticket who'd otherwise have voted for Houchen.

Spot on.  Plus it's difficult to have "coat tails" when turnout is only 25%.  Nobody cares about the metro mayors.

I don't think any metro mayors have coat tails but I think there's already two-tiers of them. Burnham, Street and Rotheram do actually have some sort of presence. I'm sure Houchen appears in the local newspaper a lot, and is obviously more well-known than Jacobs, but because Houchen has no real presence or relevance to national politics I'd be surprised if many voters even knew he was up for election, at least before they receive their poll card. Bowles, Jarvis and Palmer must be even less well-known.

Precisely.  I literally live in the same village as Bowles (he used to be my councillor) and nobody has ever heard of him or knows what West of England Mayor even means.

Burnham amd Street, as you correctly point out, are much bigger names.  The role is as big as you choose to make it I guess.

[CumbrianLefty]

One potential huge issue for Labour is that the by-election is likely to be held on local election day (6th May) where the extremely popular Tory mayor of the Tees Valley (which includes Hartlepool), Ben Houchen, is expected to cruise to a landslide re-election. It's likely that he will have at least some coat tails which will significantly boost the Tory candidate's chances of gaining the seat.

Local politics rarely influence national voting, usually it's the other way round. It seems more likely that Labour's candidate for mayor will gain a bit from Labour supporters voting straight ticket who'd otherwise have voted for Houchen.

Spot on.  Plus it's difficult to have "coat tails" when turnout is only 25%.  Nobody cares about the metro mayors.

I don't think any metro mayors have coat tails but I think there's already two-tiers of them. Burnham, Street and Rotheram do actually have some sort of presence. I'm sure Houchen appears in the local newspaper a lot, and is obviously more well-known than Jacobs, but because Houchen has no real presence or relevance to national politics I'd be surprised if many voters even knew he was up for election, at least before they receive their poll card. Bowles, Jarvis and Palmer must be even less well-known.

Precisely.  I literally live in the same village as Bowles (he used to be my councillor) and nobody has ever heard of him or knows what West of England Mayor even means.

Burnham amd Street, as you correctly point out, are much bigger names.  The role is as big as you choose to make it I guess.

To an extent, though it also helps that GtrManc, Merseyside and even the W Mids are already fairly well defined regions with some (albeit fuzzy) sense of "identity".

Some of these other mayoral entities, though, are distinctly amorophous.

(what would "West of England" mean to you? Probably not what that position actually covers, for sure)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I want to have some of what Ladbrokes punters are smoking.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1372098638281895939

It would be awesome if they gained traction in this race, but I don't see them getting much of anything.

They're literally a Twitter meme party, lol.

[Conservatopia]

One potential huge issue for Labour is that the by-election is likely to be held on local election day (6th May) where the extremely popular Tory mayor of the Tees Valley (which includes Hartlepool), Ben Houchen, is expected to cruise to a landslide re-election. It's likely that he will have at least some coat tails which will significantly boost the Tory candidate's chances of gaining the seat.

Local politics rarely influence national voting, usually it's the other way round. It seems more likely that Labour's candidate for mayor will gain a bit from Labour supporters voting straight ticket who'd otherwise have voted for Houchen.

Spot on.  Plus it's difficult to have "coat tails" when turnout is only 25%.  Nobody cares about the metro mayors.

I don't think any metro mayors have coat tails but I think there's already two-tiers of them. Burnham, Street and Rotheram do actually have some sort of presence. I'm sure Houchen appears in the local newspaper a lot, and is obviously more well-known than Jacobs, but because Houchen has no real presence or relevance to national politics I'd be surprised if many voters even knew he was up for election, at least before they receive their poll card. Bowles, Jarvis and Palmer must be even less well-known.

Precisely.  I literally live in the same village as Bowles (he used to be my councillor) and nobody has ever heard of him or knows what West of England Mayor even means.

Burnham amd Street, as you correctly point out, are much bigger names.  The role is as big as you choose to make it I guess.

To an extent, though it also helps that GtrManc, Merseyside and even the W Mids are already fairly well defined regions with some (albeit fuzzy) sense of "identity".

Some of these other mayoral entities, though, are distinctly amorophous.

(what would "West of England" mean to you? Probably not what that position actually covers, for sure)

Excellent points as always

West of England to me would mean Thomas Hardy's Wessex.  Of course that isn't what it means in this case.

If the UK ever federalises I will advocate for a province named Wessex for sure
I think we have the "identity" necessary for such an entity.

[beesley]

If the UK ever federalises I will advocate for a province named Wessex for sure
I think we have the "identity" necessary for such an entity.

Yes! With a parliament in Winchester maybe.

[Conservatopia]

If the UK ever federalises I will advocate for a province named Wessex for sure
I think we have the "identity" necessary for such an entity.

Yes! With a parliament in Winchester maybe.

I was hoping Bath but Winchester would work too.

Also I think if we included Dorset and Cornwall we could also lay claim to the nickname of the "Sunshine State" a la Florida and Queensland.

[beesley]

If the UK ever federalises I will advocate for a province named Wessex for sure
I think we have the "identity" necessary for such an entity.

Yes! With a parliament in Winchester maybe.

I was hoping Bath but Winchester would work too.

Also I think if we included Dorset and Cornwall we could also lay claim to the nickname of the "Sunshine State" a la Florida and Queensland.

I only selected Winchester due to it being the seat of King Alfred, though Bath has the advantage of being more central I suppose.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Burnham amd Street, as you correctly point out, are much bigger names.  The role is as big as you choose to make it I guess.

Even there Burnham is much better known than Street, whose profile within the West Midlands is less than generally presumed by political journalists. And, of course, Burnham was already a figure with a national profile. Part of the issue is that these posts are actually very weak - they can lobby Westminster and stalk local news cameras, but they do not decide on fundamental matters.

[CumbrianLefty]

Reform Party officially announces that they will stand in Hartlepool.

Also confirmed there will be a second Westminster byelection (both almost certainly on 6 May) for Airdrie and Shotts, where the sitting SNP MP is standing aside so they can run for Holyrood. Looks fairly safe for the Nats on paper, though their majority over Labour fell to under 200 at the 2017 GE.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reform Party officially announces that they will stand in Hartlepool.

It was either that or announce that they were shutting up shop.

Also confirmed there will be a second Westminster byelection (both almost certainly on 6 May) for Airdrie and Shotts, where the sitting SNP MP is standing aside so they can run for Holyrood. Looks fairly safe for the Nats on paper, though their majority over Labour fell to under 200 at the 2017 GE.

Running the by-election on the same day as the Holyrood elections is probably the best way to minimise any threat from Labour there, so would be amazed at any other date being picked.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Local politics rarely influence national voting...

It can do, but usually only when the council in question has done something exceedingly unpopular, bad enough to damage the party brand locally. Tends not to work the other way - c.f. a number of particularly horrible Labour performances in '19 happened in areas with quite popular Labour councils!

[Blair]

Reform Party officially announces that they will stand in Hartlepool.

Also confirmed there will be a second Westminster byelection (both almost certainly on 6 May) for Airdrie and Shotts, where the sitting SNP MP is standing aside so they can run for Holyrood. Looks fairly safe for the Nats on paper, though their majority over Labour fell to under 200 at the 2017 GE.

Can't find any mention of this on their twitter- I wonder if they're running someone local.

If not I can't see them even moderately well unless Tice runs (and he wouldn't be the first third party to do very well in one election & then lose a huge chunk of their vote in the next)

[YL]

Airdrie & Shotts by-election confirmed: Neil Gray has resigned his seat been appointed Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.

[Crane]

Airdrie & Shotts by-election confirmed: Neil Gray has resigned his seat been appointed Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.

Do people often resign from the UK parliament to run for Scottish parliament?

[CumbrianLefty]

This is the first time it has happened - the SNP have now said "double hatting" is not allowed.

[beesley]

Do people often resign from the UK parliament to run for Scottish parliament?

This is the first time it has happened - the SNP have now said "double hatting" is not allowed.

There are plenty of examples of former MPs becoming MSPs however: David Steel, Anas Sarwar, Angus Robertson potentially, but in terms of leaving the UK Parliament mid-term, there aren't so many. In fact, many MPs have been elected to the Scottish Parliament mid-term but obviously didn't resign their Westminster seats.

• Donald Dewar, the inaugural First Minister was MP for Glasgow Anniesland and ran in the equivalent Holyrood seat in 1999.
• Henry McLeish, Dewar's successor as First Minister, was MP for Central Fife and again ran in the equivalent Holyrood seat in 1999. He stood down from his Westminster seat at the 2001 General Election.
• Jim Wallace, the former interim First Minister and long-standing Deputy First Minister, was MP for Orkney and Shetland and ran for the Orkney Scottish Parliament seat in 1999, again waiting until 2001 to stand down from Westminster.
  
• Sam Galbraith, the inaugural Secretary for Education, was MP for Strathkelvin and Bearsden and again ran in the equivalent seat in 1999. He left both his Westminster and Holyrood seat in 2001.
• Dennis Canavan, a Labour MP for Falkirk West ran as an independent in the equivalent seat. He did resign his Westminster seat after being elected.
• Alex Salmond was a Westminster MP for Banff and Buchan when he was elected to the Scottish Parliament in 1999. He didn't leave his Westminster seat, but instead his Holyrood seat. He returned to Holyrood in 2007 as the new First Minister and left his Westminster seat in 2010.
• Douglas Ross will almost certainly return to the Scottish Parliament this May. He has no plans to resign his Westminster seat.

There may be a few I hadn't thought of. Gray however is the first to be affected by this rule (arguably Joanna Cherry was, as she didn't run for Edinburgh Central because of it.)

[CumbrianLefty]

It now looks likely that Airdrie/Shotts will be on May 13th, a week after the main elections. Holding it on the same day apparently fell foul of electoral regulations in this Covid period.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It now looks likely that Airdrie/Shotts will be on May 13th, a week after the main elections. Holding it on the same day apparently fell foul of electoral regulations in this Covid period.

An amusing miscalculation there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Meanwhile, some excitement caused by a "poll" of Hartlepool which isn't actually a poll as such.

[Lord Halifax]

Meanwhile, some excitement caused by a "poll" of Hartlepool which isn't actually a poll as such.

Tell us more.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It's MRP, which models individual seats by applying the national voting intention of demographics.  Perhaps useful for a broad indication of the "state of play" but isn't going to be very predictive of a by-election.

[cp]

And it shows Labour 3 points ahead.

For the record, they were 9 points ahead in December 2019, albeit with a divided opposition. Labour's overall percentage of the vote is about the same in this poll as it was in 2019.

To the extent any of this could be seen as indicative of what's on the ground, it's mostly bad news for Labour.