UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbf the Tories picked quite a few people like that in 2019 in seats that they still won from Labour - the likelihood remains strong that by-elections are a different beast tho.

(any known reason why their Hartlepool candidate back then isn't getting another go?)

[beesley]

John Prescott (no, not that John Prescott), will be the Reform candidate in Hartlepool. He stood in Stockton South in 2019, so this is his second race against Paul Williams.

[CumbrianLefty]

Still awaiting confirmation of LibDem and Green candidates in Hartlepool (if any)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tbf the Tories picked quite a few people like that in 2019 in seats that they still won from Labour - the likelihood remains strong that by-elections are a different beast tho.

There are circumstances when it genuinely doesn't matter who you run (and as you say the list of new MPs from 2019 features a lot of such people...), there are circumstances when it absolutely does. It's like bad behaviour from incumbents. Most of the time you'd never notice electorally, but isn't it funny how often incumbents so tarred have a habit of losing when things turn bad for their party in general?

[Lord Halifax]

John Prescott (no, not that John Prescott), will be the Reform candidate in Hartlepool. He stood in Stockton South in 2019, so this is his second race against Paul Williams.

Too bad, would have been funny.

[Gary JG]

The Liberal Democrats have re-selected their local 2017 and 2019 candidate Andrew Hagon, to stand in the by-election. So there is at least one candidate who has not moved in from another area, but I doubt that will make any noticeable difference to the result.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-56609924

[CumbrianLefty]

Still awaiting confirmation of LibDem and Green candidates in Hartlepool (if any)

Both have now announced their hopefuls - in the former's case it is their candidate in 2017 and 2019.

[Gary JG]

Death of Dame Cheryl Gillan MP (C-Chesham & Amersham) has been announced. It is a bit to soon for it to be seemly to speculate about the by-election but it is obvious that one will have to be held later in the year.

Condolences to the late MPs family and friends.

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56641597

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reached the height of her career as David Cameron's Welsh Secretary 2010-12. She did not particularly distinguish herself in the role, but had a higher profile than any of the four (!) subsequent Welsh Secretaries, despite representing a constituency in England (though she was Welsh).

[beesley]

Sad news about Dame Cheryl Gillan. Obviously there is little that can be/needs to be said about the by-election there at the moment.

The SNP and Labour have selected their candidates in Airdrie and Shotts. The SNP have selected Anum Qaisar-Javed, a modern studies teacher, while Labour have selected Fortissat councillor Kenneth Stevenson - he defeated the former MP Pamela Nash in the selection.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1379207704112156677?s=20

Obvious warning about constituency polls accuracy is obvious. The takeaway should be that the race is competitive, not who exactly is leading.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Numbers like that with a very small sample size in a constituency poll in a by-election would normally just say 'competitive', particularly a month away from the election itself.

However... er... given who commissioned the poll and some of the 'issues' with this company's constituency polling at the last GE, it might be interesting to see the internals. There are a few things that smell odd as it is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh dear Lord it turns out that the effective sample size was 302.

[Blair]

I wonder how much CWU paid for it.

The numbers for NIP seem higher than I expect but equally the numbers for Reform UK are what I expect- I think if someone called me up and asked me on the spot what the Brexit Party is now called I'd certainly struggle

[Coldstream]

The NIP will be lucky to get 0.2%.

[Lord Halifax]

Numbers like that with a very small sample size in a constituency poll in a by-election would normally just say 'competitive', particularly a month away from the election itself.

However... er... given who commissioned the poll and some of the 'issues' with this company's constituency polling at the last GE, it might be interesting to see the internals. There are a few things that smell odd as it is.

Does it matter that it was commissioned by a trade union?

What 'issues' are you talking about?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Numbers like that with a very small sample size in a constituency poll in a by-election would normally just say 'competitive', particularly a month away from the election itself.

However... er... given who commissioned the poll and some of the 'issues' with this company's constituency polling at the last GE, it might be interesting to see the internals. There are a few things that smell odd as it is.

Does it matter that it was commissioned by a trade union?

A notably pro-Corbyn and anti-Starmer union who might be interested in making a point (the poll also contains questions about various policies in the 2019 manifesto it liked).

[CumbrianLefty]

A union that has been publicly and volubly critical of Starmer's leadership (and in ideological terms, not just - as some other critics have mainly been - regarding issues of process)

Whilst the questions asked mostly seem straight enough - and of course Survation is a fully reputable pollster, even if their constituency polls at the last GE were more accurate in some cases than others - that still perhaps needs to be borne in mind when considering this poll.

[YL]

Numbers like that with a very small sample size in a constituency poll in a by-election would normally just say 'competitive', particularly a month away from the election itself.

However... er... given who commissioned the poll and some of the 'issues' with this company's constituency polling at the last GE, it might be interesting to see the internals. There are a few things that smell odd as it is.

Does it matter that it was commissioned by a trade union?

What 'issues' are you talking about?

They had some problems with weighting by past vote: they weighted by recalled vote in the 2019 European elections, but it turned out that many people who normally voted Labour or Tory didn't actually remember that they'd voted Brexit Party or Lib Dem, leading to the relatively few respondents who actually remembered voting for those parties -- not of course likely to be very representative of those who had -- getting massively upweighted.

It's not hard to see how there could be similar problems with this poll -- though I'd hope people are more accurate in their recall of a Westminster vote -- but without the tables we don't know.

[CumbrianLefty]

The NIP will be lucky to get 0.2%.

Oh, one does hope so

[YL]

The NIP will be lucky to get 0.2%.

If they don't get registered by Thursday they won't get a single vote

[CumbrianLefty]

I wonder how much CWU paid for it.

The numbers for NIP seem higher than I expect but equally the numbers for Reform UK are what I expect- I think if someone called me up and asked me on the spot what the Brexit Party is now called I'd certainly struggle

One does wonder if specifying "Reform UK - formerly Brexit Party" might have got a few points more.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

though I'd hope people are more accurate in their recall of a Westminster vote -- but without the tables we don't know.

So the internals are online and I've seen them. They are... er... well... problematic. I would suggest that we ignore this poll completely. Even if it ends up being 'right' it will only have done so by complete accident.

[Blair]

The questions in the poll also relate to issues for CWU as a union; they represent both postal workers and engineers. I assume they were added to justify the cost....

CWU are an interesting union; they played a big part in the 2019 manifesto and seemed to pick up some profile on the left when UNITE were well being UNITE. They also lack the need to work as closely with the leadership as the other big unions so they can get away with this.

though I'd hope people are more accurate in their recall of a Westminster vote -- but without the tables we don't know.

So the internals are online and I've seen them. They are... er... well... problematic. I would suggest that we ignore this poll completely. Even if it ends up being 'right' it will only have done so by complete accident.

Would be interested to know why... I’m quite thick when it comes to polling!

[Blair]

It seems to have got everyone very excited (some MPs are slagging off the CWU while Labour activists are slagging off the leadership) but surely the simple thing is to wait- I never understand the need to poll by elections unless it’s a very long/weird multi candidate race.