UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170194 times)
Blair
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« Reply #400 on: June 06, 2021, 09:15:50 AM »

Oh yeah I stupidly wrote newsworthy when I meant 'how I would assess the scale of the results myself'- if he loses I expect a challenge to Starmers leadership in some form.

Knowing Labour there will be a challenge which will get stuck at 39 signatures... which will lead nicely up to the party conference.
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beesley
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« Reply #401 on: June 06, 2021, 09:19:14 AM »


(btw I'm not sure that the margin in B&S will resonate either, all that will matter is the result. Even a narrow defeat would put Starmer's leadership into possibly terminal crisis - but the obverse of that is a razor-thin hold could, likely successfully, be spun by his people as a "turning of the tide")

Yes, and in spite of the 'Hartlepool is a 70% Leave seat' , they can turn it around and say 'we held a seat with a similar majority to Hartlepool'.
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Blair
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« Reply #402 on: June 06, 2021, 09:20:05 AM »

It's also noticeable that Keir hasn't visited the seat- he went to Hartlepool at least 3 times & there was certainly a perception that the party was throwing the kitchen seat at the sink..
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #403 on: June 06, 2021, 01:35:04 PM »

The Greens have withdrawn their candidate due to homophobic and sexist tweets he posted ten years ago, they probably don't have time to find a replacement before the deadline tomorrow. If so, good for Labour, might be worth an extra percentage point or two.
www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2021/06/06/green-party-to-replace-batley-and-spen-candidate/
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #404 on: June 06, 2021, 01:46:11 PM »

Their statement is self-contradictory:

We were very sorry to learn of Ross Peltier's historic but highly offensive tweets. We are clear that people grow and change and should not be limited by youthful mistakes. But, as a party that champions the rights of LGBTIQA+ people and their support communities, we do not feel it is right for Ross to be the party's candidate for Batley and Spen by-election.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #405 on: June 06, 2021, 06:49:45 PM »

The Greens have withdrawn their candidate due to homophobic and sexist tweets he posted ten years ago, they probably don't have time to find a replacement before the deadline tomorrow. If so, good for Labour, might be worth an extra percentage point or two.
www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2021/06/06/green-party-to-replace-batley-and-spen-candidate/

I’d still expect they will find someone. In the seat I was working in in 2019 the Green candidate withdrew and endorsed us two days before any they still managed to find a replacement. The Green Party nationally is almost as hardline as the Lib Dem’s about standing everywhere irrespective of chance of keeping their deposit.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #406 on: June 07, 2021, 05:46:57 AM »
« Edited: June 07, 2021, 05:52:55 AM by Lord Halifax »

"Reform UK has announced it will not stand a candidate in the Batley and Spen by-election in a bid to boost the Conservative Party’s chances of taking the Labour-held seat.

Leader Richard Tice said he hoped a blue victory would bring about a snap general election and “hopefully the final nail in Labour’s coffin”."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labour-richard-tice-batley-conservatives-keir-starmer-b939020.html

Their decision was made "in consultation with Laurence Fox’s Reclaim Party and Paul Halloran", so a joint decision not to stand among the "soft" right wing populists.  

Nominations close at 4pm local time today.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #407 on: June 07, 2021, 07:07:10 AM »

"Reform UK has announced it will not stand a candidate in the Batley and Spen by-election in a bid to boost the Conservative Party’s chances of taking the Labour-held seat.

Leader Richard Tice said he hoped a blue victory would bring about a snap general election and “hopefully the final nail in Labour’s coffin”."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/labour-richard-tice-batley-conservatives-keir-starmer-b939020.html

Their decision was made "in consultation with Laurence Fox’s Reclaim Party and Paul Halloran", so a joint decision not to stand among the "soft" right wing populists. 

Nominations close at 4pm local time today.

Total grifters.  They didn't manage to recruit Halloran so now they say "ackshully we wanted the Tories to win all along coz that will mean early election".

I shouldn't be complaining because obviously this is a big boost for my party but my goodness what a joke Tice is.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #408 on: June 07, 2021, 08:26:07 AM »

The Greens have withdrawn their candidate due to homophobic and sexist tweets he posted ten years ago, they probably don't have time to find a replacement before the deadline tomorrow. If so, good for Labour, might be worth an extra percentage point or two.
www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2021/06/06/green-party-to-replace-batley-and-spen-candidate/

I’d still expect they will find someone. In the seat I was working in in 2019 the Green candidate withdrew and endorsed us two days before any they still managed to find a replacement. The Green Party nationally is almost as hardline as the Lib Dem’s about standing everywhere irrespective of chance of keeping their deposit.

Though they have majorly upped GE candidate numbers in recent years, they left a significant number of seats uncontested last time even after the "remain alliance" deals with the LibDems/Nats.
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YL
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« Reply #409 on: June 07, 2021, 10:49:48 AM »
« Edited: June 07, 2021, 10:54:21 AM by YL »

16 candidates for Batley & Spen

Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance)
Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism)
Jayda Fransen (Independent)
George Galloway (Workers Party)
Thomas Gordon (Lib Dem)
Thérèse Hirst (Eng Dem)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Susan Laird (Heritage Party)
Kim Leadbeater (Lab)
Oliver Purser (SDP)
Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party)
Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU)
Ryan Stephenson (Con)
Jack Thomson (UKIP)
Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance)
Anne Marie Waters (For Britain)

No Green.  Alliance for Green Socialism is a Leeds-based microparty.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #410 on: June 07, 2021, 12:18:34 PM »

I think we can all agree that hopefully MRLP beat out Anne-Marie Waters.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #411 on: June 07, 2021, 12:40:12 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2021, 03:01:44 PM by Lord Halifax »

The final list of Batley and Spen candidates didn't differ that much from my preliminary list. But it may be of some interest to other non-Brits to have the updated version.

Three new candidates (in green) - incl. one Libertarian and one (other.. Tongue ) loonie, and no Green replacement candidate. The Heritage Party is the most moderate of the right wing populist options, followed by UKIP. But it's unclear if they can attract a sizable number of Halloran voters, the others are almost certainly too extreme. UKIP is a mess and a shadow of its former self, and the others are all micro parties.

Corey Robinson from the Yorkshire Party will likely finish third, but I doubt he gets the 5% required to save his deposit. Fairly sure Galloway is going nowhere and it's not a constituency that's favorable to the LibDems.

Far right or right wing populist:
Jayda Fransen - Independent (ex-EDL and Britain First)
Jack Thompson - UKIP
Anne Marie Waters - For Britain Movement
Susan Laird - Heritage Party
Thérèse Hirst - English Democrats

Libertarian:
Jonathan Tilt

Centre-right:
Ryan Stephenson - Conservative
Paul Bickerdike - Christian Peoples Alliance

Centrist or mixed left/right:
Tom Gordon - Liberal Democrats
Ollie Purser - Social Democratic Party
Andrew Smith - Rejoin EU

Centre-left:
Kim Leadbeater - Labour
Corey Robinson - Yorkshire Party
Ross Peltier - Green Party

Far left:
George Galloway - Workers Party of Britain
Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism)

Loonie:
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
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Blair
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« Reply #412 on: June 14, 2021, 10:28:26 AM »

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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #413 on: June 15, 2021, 09:39:39 AM »

Attention recently has majored on B&S, but before that we have C&A this week - and the increasingly voluble whispers from there is that the Tories fear it could be too close for comfort. If not worse.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #414 on: June 15, 2021, 02:52:16 PM »

Attention recently has majored on B&S, but before that we have C&A this week - and the increasingly voluble whispers from there is that the Tories fear it could be too close for comfort. If not worse.

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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #415 on: June 15, 2021, 03:07:26 PM »

Attention recently has majored on B&S, but before that we have C&A this week - and the increasingly voluble whispers from there is that the Tories fear it could be too close for comfort. If not worse.



Obvious internal polling caveats aside, this could be scary for the stories even if they win, as noted. It was a 55% remain according to calculations. Labour and Greens might have to be careful about their deposits (especially the Greens, I think).
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YL
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« Reply #416 on: June 15, 2021, 04:15:17 PM »

Obvious internal polling caveats aside, this could be scary for the stories even if they win, as noted. It was a 55% remain according to calculations. Labour and Greens might have to be careful about their deposits (especially the Greens, I think).

If Labour don't lose their deposit then I would think the Lib Dems will be disappointed with the effectiveness of the squeeze.
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YL
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« Reply #417 on: June 16, 2021, 11:41:00 AM »

If the Lib Dems win, then it's obviously a good result for them, and a poor one for the Tories, but I don't think it should be regarded as a shock on the level some are suggesting.  The Tories in Government (except during the Coalition years of course) have often been vulnerable to the Lib Dems (and their predecessors) in basically safe seats where Labour are very weak; this seat fits that pattern.

I also suspect that if Labour do lose their deposit the concern trolls will be out in force saying how terrible a result this is for them.  Now, I'm not going to deny that Labour have problems, but that just needs three words in response: Newbury, Christchurch, Winchester.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #418 on: June 16, 2021, 11:46:38 AM »

There is also a big local issue of the sort that lends itself quite nicely to a one-off kick against the government from people who basically support it in broad terms. But, again, this is not a prediction.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #419 on: June 16, 2021, 12:52:00 PM »

There is also a big local issue of the sort that lends itself quite nicely to a one-off kick against the government from people who basically support it in broad terms. But, again, this is not a prediction.

What is the big local issue?
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YL
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« Reply #420 on: June 16, 2021, 01:47:20 PM »

Some census statistics (2011 obviously).

Managers, directors and senior officials: 17.4% (8/650)
Professional occupations 23.1% (73/650)
Elementary occupations 6.4% (629/650)

Level 4 qualifications (degree level, roughly) 41.0% (39/650)
No qualifications 14.7% (608/650)
Students 18 and over 2.5% (509/650)

Owned outright 41.1% (55/650)
Owned with mortgage 35.8% (227/650)
Social rented 12.4% (468/650)
Private rented 9.0% (610/650)
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #421 on: June 16, 2021, 02:02:08 PM »

There is also a big local issue of the sort that lends itself quite nicely to a one-off kick against the government from people who basically support it in broad terms. But, again, this is not a prediction.

What is the big local issue?

Nimbyism related to housing development and HS2 I'm assuming, although he could be referring to something else.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #422 on: June 17, 2021, 03:33:56 AM »

Yes I could see anti-HS2 voting hurting the Tories a lot in this seat.

That said I reckon we hold it by 2-3 pts.
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Cassius
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« Reply #423 on: June 17, 2021, 03:57:15 AM »

I’m sure the result being due to a backlash over HS2 and the new planning laws won’t prevent parts of the media trying to crowbar in the old ‘Tories under threat in their heartland due to Brexit and socially liberal internationalist (lol) voters leaving the party’ narrative.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #424 on: June 17, 2021, 04:14:52 AM »

I’m sure the result being due to a backlash over HS2 and the new planning laws won’t prevent parts of the media trying to crowbar in the old ‘Tories under threat in their heartland due to Brexit and socially liberal internationalist (lol) voters leaving the party’ narrative.
Trying to spin the possible loss of a ultra-safe seat away is tripartisan tradition it seems.
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