UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Blair]

Am I right as well that in these sort of ultrasafe seats both parties will have a much sketchier view of where their vote is too…

[Blair]

It’s not really been discussed but it’s very plausible that if the Lib Dems win it will be down to tactical voting- the Greens got over 2,000 votes in 2019!

[Blair]

Very likely on the first- there is a small but significant number of Conservatives who despise the man- some of these people are very traditional old school wets who dislike his politics, but there are also people who just hate the man. It reminds me in a way at the way Gordon Browns vote split through these two reasons.

I think the stay at home factor is more important- it certainly happened in the locals.

https://mobile.twitter.com/timfarron/status/1539630537668804609

How plausible is it that Tory loyalists are temporarily switching to Lib Dem (or just staying home) just for this specific by-election, purely as a protest against Boris damaging the party's overall prospects?  I would imagine that even if Boris is still leading the party into the next GE they'll all fall back in line (because GEs actually matter), but for now?

[Blair]

Interesting- the polling suggests a big Wakefield majority (my guess would be around 2-5K).

Something towards the lower end is a ‘normal’ by-election loss for a Government doing badly, but if there vote really falls out the bottom in Wakefield it could be much bigger. As always the vote share will be more interesting and more useful than the top line figures!

Tory sources are now briefing that they expect to lose both by-elections, and that the margin will be closer in Wakefield than T&H, which I struggle to see. I guess we've seen stranger things in prior by-elections though.
https://www.ft.com/content/9d8b3793-7953-4f12-896e-9cb60069545a

One Tory strategist working on the two by-elections said the Liberal Democrats were on course to win Tiverton with a “substantial” majority and Labour would secure Wakefield, albeit by a smaller margin.

The strategist added the by-elections were prompted by scandals surrounding the incumbent Tory MPs and it was natural the party would lose. “Midterm governments also don’t win by-elections,” he said.

Feels blatantly dishonest to claim the government doesn't win midterm by-elections, when Labour haven't made a by-election gain in over a decade, and the Conservatives have made several, starting with Copeland, and ending with Hartlepool a year ago!
(For those of you playing the home game, the last time Labour picked up a seat in a by-election was when Louise Mensch resigned as MP for Corby in 2012, and before that you have to go back to 1997)

*

Labour seems to be trying to do their own expectation setting too:

“It’s going strong but we are very, very worried about complacency and turnout,” said one member of Sir Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet. “Anything over [a majority of] 1,000 will be a huge achievement.”

But, as you'd expect, not everyone is toeing the party line:

Another shadow cabinet member said: “Anything less than a 5,000 majority bodes badly for winning back the red wall.”

[Blair]

Wild unverified rumour time?

Tiverton could be better than expected for the Liberals.

[Blair]

I suspect the main issue is the numerical majority vs. percentage majority - it's absurd, but a lot of MPs and political insiders still tend to think in terms of the former, even though it's really not that helpful to do so. But 'we're going to get hammered' is quite a shift in briefing from a few days ago: perhaps a different source, perhaps it's just a hard constituency to get a handle on, perhaps a matter of different briefing games to different journalists, I don't know.

I prefer the forever war method of finding any way to prove the result is actually bad for the leadership.

‘If you only count the votes in wards beginning with W you can see Brown/Miliband/Corbyn/Starmer are actually going backwards compared to the result in 1997.’

[Blair]

I love that someone reported the liberals saying ‘we’re doing well in towns, the Tories are doing well in the rural parts’- yes this is like telling us water is wet.

[Blair]

Wonder what the new wedge issue will be next week…

I see they’ve gone for the Gordon Brown playbook and blamed it all on David Miliband Tory rebels.

[Blair]

Seen a claim that the Tory vote is holding up in T and H, but doesn't dispute that they are going to lose. Given that they got 60% last time, it has fallen at least 15% if they have indeed lost. Hardly holding up.

Well yes I was going to be snidey and say it’s brave to brief your vote is holding up when a 24K majority seat is at risk.

[Blair]

Wakefield expected between 3-4. I don’t think I’ve had a full nights sleep during by election night for a while..

[Blair]

Oh my god the Tories can’t find anyone to do their morning broadcast round as Dowden (Tory Party Chair) has quit over the results.

[Blair]

My first thought was that Wakefield could have been a lot worse for them.

It was a very good result for Labour, but wasn’t as much of a blowout as Tiverton. I expect the Independent candidate (an ex Tory Cllr who won a Labour ward in the locals) who got 8% meant there wasn’t as a huge lead for Labour.

But if you said a Labour majority of virtually 5K at the start of the race Labour would be happy and it is the historic vote share the party has got since the 2000s- I imagine it is a very different coalition though!

[Blair]

Well it’s a take!

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1540218121943916550?ref_src=twsrc...

[Blair]

I still think they should have split the by-elections- if they had Wakefield first it would have been easier to spin but two on one night makes it’s easier to box off bullsh**t excuses.

They’re trying to argue that Labours swing was too small, but the much larger liberal swing doesn’t matter…

Raab in on Radio 4 jabbering about a pact between the two parties- a bit late for that.

[Blair]

I’m very bored of people thinking they’re smart and alternative by saying these results are fine because Thatcher and Major lost by-elections.

So did Brown and Callaghan…

[Blair]

Should have driven an orange tractor through a blue wall.

[Blair]

We have a new line from the Conservatives!

They only lost because Conservative voters stayed at home.

[Blair]

Since we don’t have ward level data it’s impossible to know but Labour seem to think they did very well in the the rural (Tory) part of Wakefield- this is very similar to Batley and Spen, where iirc, Labour won because they had their best result in the traditional Conservative wards for 30 odd years, and survived on the basis of Tory voters switching.

[Blair]

The usual playbook is to have a hyper active local MP who campaigns to save the childrens playground, opens a new gate and opposes every new planning application.

The coalition and Brexit both basically killed their ability to do this; because their brand was so damaged and voters had bigger issues to vote on.

[Blair]

Well it wouldn’t be a shock if we have another south west by-election but god knows the Tories will be moving heaven and earth to stop any. The only seats that are safe are the ones facing Labour in Essex.

Also to be blunt MPs facing investigations often stay in Parliament- they in some cases get legal advice paid for them (as I believe the Hartlepool MP did via insurance) and leaving means they lose a large amount of their income.

[Blair]

These things take time though- so could be months or even a full year.

The biggest danger is an immediate and panicked resignation at the first sign of national attention or a backlash e.g Paterson and Tractor man.

[Blair]

I don't know how much of it was spent/wasted in 2019 but the party also has a lot more money than they once did.

They're also in a much healthier state as a party than they were in the coalition years; both in terms of the size & also the make up of its membership. I mean what reason would you have to campaign for the Lib-Dems in 2015?

[Blair]

Just saw figures showing Labour spent 93K in the Birmingham by election. 

[Blair]

Rachel Reeves did a biggish campaign trip to Reading West.

[Blair]

I know the Mid Bedfordshire seat vaguely in a non-political sense as a family friend nearby.

I don't even know where you would base a campaign HQ as it's a very large seat which seemed based around a series of villages- the larger villages/towns I know are actually in the Milton Keynes constituency.

It should be a safe hold with a new Prime Minister however... the current MP wasn't exactly loved or know as a devout constituency MP. If the party are sensible they will find someone local and run the usual low key campaign.