UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170205 times)
Blair
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« Reply #350 on: May 22, 2021, 04:57:27 AM »

Eight candidates for Chesham & Amersham

Carla Gregory (Breakthrough Party) [2]

[2] Small left-wing outfit, described on their Twitter page as a "youth-led democratic socialist party".




Think that tells you all you need to know.

This has strong vibes of when 5-6 tiny parties were all fighting to be the 'social democratic, pro-EU' splinter group from Labour.

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beesley
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« Reply #351 on: May 23, 2021, 02:29:08 AM »

Here's an article on the forthcoming Batley and Spen by-election from Tory blog Conservative Home. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/05/labour-voters-make-kim-leadbeater-sister-of-jo-cox-early-favourite-in-the-batley-and-spen-by-election.html A surprisingly American example of a pre-election article, it has all the hallmarks of a 'Trump voters at a Mahoning County diner' article.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #352 on: May 23, 2021, 04:16:55 AM »

That reads just like what Keir Starmer should be hoping...and what the bien pensants were predicting in 2020.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #353 on: May 23, 2021, 05:03:04 AM »

The Tories should have thought outside the box and run Paul Halloran.  Alas.  At least our candidate is semi-local.

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #354 on: May 23, 2021, 05:05:50 AM »

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Do you disapprove? We only have two other regular O-UK posters.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #355 on: May 23, 2021, 05:10:25 AM »

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Do you disapprove? We only have two other regular O-UK posters.

No it's fine.  As long as nobody encroaches on my monopoly of R-UK I'm hakuna matata.

Can I ask why you are disenchanted with Team Blue?
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #356 on: May 23, 2021, 05:23:01 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2021, 05:28:11 AM by Geoffrey Howe »

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Do you disapprove? We only have two other regular O-UK posters.

No it's fine.  As long as nobody encroaches on my monopoly of R-UK I'm hakuna matata.

Can I ask why you are disenchanted with Team Blue?

Well I'm not just disenchanted with the party. I'm partly disenchanted with the ideas - though they are dropping some of them. It seems fairly obvious to me that the policies which were absolutely necessary in the 1980s are not the solutions to today's problems. In that sense, I'm somewhat lost ideologically.

As for the party, well, I suppose it's been some time in the making, but their opposition to the EU I don't much like. More broadly, they don't believe in anything anymore - their sole purpose is to stay in power. Now, they have always been good at that, but there used to be, I think, something undergirding their positions; whether that was a belief in individual merit and the market or a more paternal, Butskellite angle - truly small c conservative. Now they will do whatever.
One of their great appeals for me was a respect for our traditions, and sensible government. The former was disgraced with the prorogation of Parliament and their reprehensible rhetoric towards the judiciary. The latter is, for obvious reasons, not something which Boris embodies. They're plainly incompetent and his Cabinet is just full of yes-men. And there's the towns fund which is brazenly pork-barrel politics.

I'm very sympathetic to their anti-woke stance, but it seems to me that they're going about it quite badly. The university free speech law is an example (see Danny Finkelstein's article in The Times). But it is all perhaps best epitomised by the voter ID law they want to put through. It is, as David Davis said, an illiberal solution to a non-existent problem. It is the most irritating form of demagogy - making up (or exaggerating) a problem and 'solving' it with a restrictive law - which just so happens to disadvantage voters of the other side.


All this said, if Angela Rayner is leader, I'm voting Tory.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #357 on: May 23, 2021, 05:33:00 AM »

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Do you disapprove? We only have two other regular O-UK posters.

No it's fine.  As long as nobody encroaches on my monopoly of R-UK I'm hakuna matata.

Can I ask why you are disenchanted with Team Blue?

Well I'm not just disenchanted with the party. I'm partly disenchanted with the ideas - though they are dropping some of them. It seems fairly obvious to me that the policies which were absolutely necessary in the 1980s are not the solutions to today's problems. In that sense, I'm somewhat lost ideologically.

As for the party, well, I suppose it's been some time in the making, but their opposition to the EU I don't much like. More broadly, they don't believe in anything anymore - their sole purpose is to stay in power. Now, they have always been good at that, but there used to be, I think, something undergirding their positions; whether that was a belief in individual merit and the market or a more paternal, Butskellite angle - truly small c conservative. Now they will do whatever.
One of their great appeals for me was a respect for our traditions, and sensible government. The former was disgraced with the prorogation of Parliament and their reprehensible rhetoric towards the judiciary. The latter is, for obvious reasons, not something which Boris embodies. They're plainly incompetent and his Cabinet is just full of yes-men.

I'm very sympathetic to their anti-woke stance, but it seems to me that they're going about it quite badly. The university free speech law is an example (see Danny Finkelstein's article in The Times). But it is all perhaps best epitomised by the voter ID law they want to put through. It is, as David Davis said, an illiberal solution to a non-existent problem. It is the most irritating form of demagogy - making up (or exaggerating) a problem and 'solving' it with a restrictive law - which just so happens to disadvantage voters of the other side


All this said, if Angela Rayner is leader, I'm voting Tory.


I can't disagree with anything you've written Geoff.  However I would argue that maintaining power has been the core ideology of the Tories since the Corn Laws debacle rather than a new thing.  Therefore the Tories will do what is perceived as popular and merely vaguely aligned with conservatism rather than taking what Sir Humphrey would call a "courageous decision".  Of course I would prefer the Tories to go full PiS but that's never going to happen. Wink
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #358 on: May 23, 2021, 05:37:19 AM »

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Do you disapprove? We only have two other regular O-UK posters.

No it's fine.  As long as nobody encroaches on my monopoly of R-UK I'm hakuna matata.

Can I ask why you are disenchanted with Team Blue?

Well I'm not just disenchanted with the party. I'm partly disenchanted with the ideas - though they are dropping some of them. It seems fairly obvious to me that the policies which were absolutely necessary in the 1980s are not the solutions to today's problems. In that sense, I'm somewhat lost ideologically.

As for the party, well, I suppose it's been some time in the making, but their opposition to the EU I don't much like. More broadly, they don't believe in anything anymore - their sole purpose is to stay in power. Now, they have always been good at that, but there used to be, I think, something undergirding their positions; whether that was a belief in individual merit and the market or a more paternal, Butskellite angle - truly small c conservative. Now they will do whatever.
One of their great appeals for me was a respect for our traditions, and sensible government. The former was disgraced with the prorogation of Parliament and their reprehensible rhetoric towards the judiciary. The latter is, for obvious reasons, not something which Boris embodies. They're plainly incompetent and his Cabinet is just full of yes-men.

I'm very sympathetic to their anti-woke stance, but it seems to me that they're going about it quite badly. The university free speech law is an example (see Danny Finkelstein's article in The Times). But it is all perhaps best epitomised by the voter ID law they want to put through. It is, as David Davis said, an illiberal solution to a non-existent problem. It is the most irritating form of demagogy - making up (or exaggerating) a problem and 'solving' it with a restrictive law - which just so happens to disadvantage voters of the other side


All this said, if Angela Rayner is leader, I'm voting Tory.


I can't disagree with anything you've written Geoff.  However I would argue that maintaining power has been the core ideology of the Tories since the Corn Laws debacle rather than a new thing.  Therefore the Tories will do what is perceived as popular and merely vaguely aligned with conservatism rather than taking what Sir Humphrey would call a "courageous decision".  Of course I would prefer the Tories to go full PiS but that's never going to happen. Wink

Sure, but they have taken very unpopular positions in the name of principle - e.g. 1979-1983. I can't see them doing that any more.
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Blair
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« Reply #359 on: May 23, 2021, 06:54:26 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2021, 04:59:47 PM by Blair »

Here's an article on the forthcoming Batley and Spen by-election from Tory blog Conservative Home. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/05/labour-voters-make-kim-leadbeater-sister-of-jo-cox-early-favourite-in-the-batley-and-spen-by-election.html A surprisingly American example of a pre-election article, it has all the hallmarks of a 'Trump voters at a Mahoning County diner' article.

The key thing about Leadbeater is that she is local (as is her family) & not just in the Westminster sense- she's lived and worked in the constituency.

Jo Cox was a popular local MP but had only been in office for a year before her tragic murder, so I've been a bit unsure about how much of a local vote existed.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #360 on: May 23, 2021, 10:43:17 AM »

The Tories should have thought outside the box and run Paul Halloran.  Alas.  At least our candidate is semi-local.

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Quite possibly might have lost as many votes as he gained.

Galloway appears to be sticking his oar in regarding this one, btw.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #361 on: May 23, 2021, 12:33:27 PM »

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Blair
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« Reply #362 on: May 23, 2021, 05:04:32 PM »

The Tories should have thought outside the box and run Paul Halloran.  Alas.  At least our candidate is semi-local.

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Quite possibly might have lost as many votes as he gained.

Galloway appears to be sticking his oar in regarding this one, btw.


This could cause some issues but he's not the same campaigner that won in 2012...
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YL
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« Reply #363 on: May 27, 2021, 04:54:35 AM »

The writ has been moved for Batley & Spen; polling day will be 1 July.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #364 on: May 27, 2021, 05:17:09 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2021, 05:20:46 AM by Lord Halifax »

The writ has been moved for Batley & Spen; polling day will be 1 July.

When will we know the full list of candidates?
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YL
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« Reply #365 on: May 27, 2021, 06:31:35 AM »

The writ has been moved for Batley & Spen; polling day will be 1 July.

When will we know the full list of candidates?

Friday next week (4 June), I think.  (19 working days before the election.)
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beesley
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« Reply #366 on: May 27, 2021, 06:49:10 AM »

Not sure that it will make a big difference but given that Kim Leadbeater is the Labour candidate it may have been a mistake for the Tories to select a candidate from Leeds. I'd venture that some sort of nominal connection to a place can be more important than you think.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #367 on: May 27, 2021, 09:07:14 AM »

To which the obvious retort is - it didn't hurt them in Hartlepool.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #368 on: May 27, 2021, 09:46:48 AM »

To which the obvious retort is - it didn't hurt them in Hartlepool.

OTOH, Tories had the candidate seemingly closer connected to the Hartlepool community in that by election geographically. Williams had the perception of someone from the south, whereas Jill Mortimer had the Aura of a northerner, even if she was from just outside Teesside. Nobody can deny Leadbeater's connections to B&S, so this time maybe it would be the Tories who suffer from airlifting in a distant candidate. Or maybe geography won't be an issue in this campaign since they are both Yorkshire Northers.  
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beesley
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« Reply #369 on: May 27, 2021, 12:16:48 PM »



In other news.
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YL
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« Reply #370 on: May 27, 2021, 12:57:48 PM »



In other news.

I do hope he loses his deposit.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #371 on: May 28, 2021, 09:50:10 AM »

Labour maybe just needs to make people aware he voted Tory in the recent Holyrood elections.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #372 on: May 28, 2021, 11:31:19 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2021, 12:22:27 PM by Lord Halifax »

The writ has been moved for Batley & Spen; polling day will be 1 July.

When will we know the full list of candidates?

Friday next week (4 June), I think.  (19 working days before the election.)

Apparently it's 7 June because Spring Bank Holiday (31 May) counts as a dies non. But apart from the Greens, Reform and possibly Halloran (rumored to be in taks with Reform) it looks like all the important ones have been selected.

"The Liberal Democrats have selected community campaigner Jo Conchie as the party's candidate for the Batley and Spen by-election. (...)

Labour has selected Kim Leadbeater, whose sister Jo Cox was the area's MP when she was murdered by a right-wing extremist.

The Conservatives have selected Ryan Stephenson, a Leeds councillor, as their candidate.

Former MP George Galloway, who was expelled from Labour in 2003, has also announced his intention to stand for his Workers Party of Britain.

The Yorkshire Party has selected local engineer Corey Robinson as its candidate."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leeds-57282994

Some random guy called Jack Thomson is running for UKIP.

Rumors about Hallloran:
"The Tories’ chances of victory will become much clearer when local independent heavyweight Paul Halloran makes his mind up about whether or not to stand (..) Guido now hears multiple rumours that he is having serious conversations with Tice’s Reform Party."

https://order-order.com/2021/05/26/kingmaking-batley-spen-independent-candidate-may-be-poached-by-national-party/
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beesley
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« Reply #373 on: May 30, 2021, 11:36:38 AM »

Yorkshire Party endorsed, which if you know me is not that surprising. The candidates this time aren't as awful as those at the last Batley by-election, given that about 2/3 of them were racists.
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Blair
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« Reply #374 on: May 31, 2021, 06:10:05 AM »

To which the obvious retort is - it didn't hurt them in Hartlepool.

OTOH, Tories had the candidate seemingly closer connected to the Hartlepool community in that by election geographically. Williams had the perception of someone from the south, whereas Jill Mortimer had the Aura of a northerner, even if she was from just outside Teesside. Nobody can deny Leadbeater's connections to B&S, so this time maybe it would be the Tories who suffer from airlifting in a distant candidate. Or maybe geography won't be an issue in this campaign since they are both Yorkshire Northers.  

Williams in his defence had worked in Hartlepool & represented the neighbouring seat-some people claimed he suffered more so from being a defeated MP & there's a good argument that a generic Labour candidate would have done better... but it was very clear that the Tories were picking someone with virtually no link to the seat and who was in reality on the ballot as 'Boris Johnson's Conservative candidate'.

More broadly I don't think it matters as much as people think it does; it can help sway some votes but it generally needs to hook into a much wider issue (e.g they're not local which is why they don't understand why local issue x is so important) 

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