UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Blair]

It's also noticeable that Keir hasn't visited the seat- he went to Hartlepool at least 3 times & there was certainly a perception that the party was throwing the kitchen seat at the sink..

[Blair]

https://mobile.twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1404342131410587650?ref_src=tw...

[Blair]

I’m expecting a narrow Tory win... it will be interesting to see how the Green vote does, as it could easily be high enough to stop the Lib Dem’s from winning

[Blair]

Not shocked by the result but very shocked by that margin.

lmao

I suppose we've been overdue this sort of classic Liberal by-election upset and, as noted above, there were some excellent local issues to work with. Presumably there will be some frothing and indignation on the government backbenches which may or may not have consequences.

Did it really boil down to "NIMBYism" or is there subtler stuff going on locally in Buckinghamshire as well? I wasn't really following this one until seeing the (hilarious) result.

It’s certainly a big driver; but there were signs in the locals that the Tories were losing support to the closest opposition in lots of its southern seats (sometimes the Greens, sometimes the Liberals and other times Labour in areas of Kent) There’s also the case that these sort of Tory voters are an afterthought in the Governments political strategy.

I wouldn’t be particularly panicking in terms of the national result if I was a Tory- the Lib Dem’s were campaigning in this seat before the previous incumbent had passed away.

While the public broadly support it I wonder if the lockdown extension had a minor impact- the date was chosen in the hope it would come just after the Govt re-opened.

[Blair]

Now, if the Tories gain Batley and Spen...


Plus, can we admire the Labour result? 1.6%; possibly the worst they've ever got in a by-election.

It just barely "beats" their 1.7% in the 1997 Winchester by-election.

And were polling miles better in 1997- it was another Lib-Dem Tory battle- we saw this in Richmond in 2016 too.

I don’t know why people (and by that I mean Twitter.com) are rushing to declare this a terrible result for Starmer (there should be a law for theory that everything revolves around Labour).

They just need to wait for the terrible batley and spen results for judgement day- let’s just have a rare day enjoying a Tory defeat!

[Blair]

Not wanting to get myself suspended but I know lots of Labour members who voted for Olney in 2016 and 2019- tactical voting can happen.

[Blair]

The Labour Party needs the Lib Dem’s to be winning seats like this- it’s why I was so emotionally invested in Davey winning!

[Blair]

It doesn't mean much but it's funny nonetheless:
Labour got fewer votes than they have members in this seat.

Same happened in Richmond in 2016.

[Blair]

The true by election legacy based off the Twitter discord that the result proves your pre existing views were right (including mine!)

[Blair]

A narrow result with Galloway being the margin of difference would theoretically allow Keir to say 'well blame George' but it's Keir's political strategy that allowed this gap to open. (Even though there is a very good argument that GC would have done this under Nandy or even RLB)

My hunch is that the loss will see Keir announce some sort of major change in an effort to keep the PLP on-side; he has the luxury of the Socialist Campaign Group not having the numbers to trigger an election but equally all it takes is Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner to run and you'd find 40 signatures among their loyalists, the disaffected & the other sorts in the PLP.

It's rather depressing that neither by-elections were actually necessary & as Al said are on the upper edge of where Labour would struggle. However B&S would show what the locals prove- that Keir is neither winning back the mythical red wall voter (basically people who defected from 2005 onwards) and is equally losing support among Labours reliable vote.

Nothing is risk free, but given where the party will be if B&S is indeed lost many (including in the PLP) are going to see it as a risk worth taking. Its not about the polls, its not about any "vaccine boost" for the Tories, its about Starmer haplessly alienating almost every part of Labour's existing electoral coalition in the "fools gold" pursuit of "red wall" pensioners at literally any cost.

(who then - surprise! - turn out to be more fanatically pro-Tory than ever)

SKS's not being a "natural politician" was always a potential strength *and* weakness. To make it the former he needed to select a good team around him, it is surely indisputable that he totally has not.

Yes, if Starmer oversees two by-election losses then its hard to not imagine the daggers coming out.  Labour arguably have the best B&S candidate possible, so the reaction to a loss would be that much worse.

Starmer's issue, as noted, is that he is a untraditional politician tasked with navigating a political minefield that even experienced politicians abroad have found challenging. This dilemma is of course how most parliamentary systems have unintentionally formed Unity governments in all but name when it comes to Coronavirus-related issues - the most relevant issues for voters presently. Starmer has chosen to not even bother attempting the Minefield, which led to this idea at the local elections that Labour doesn't exactly stand for anything - or at least nothing different from the governing Tories. It doesn't help that the things put forward, like self-defeating flag debate, are superficial and by nature secondary to the big policies that should be proposed.

The proper policy would have been to follow Labour's ancestors and copied Atlee. Labour then sought to "win the peace" by supporting the war but also putting forward a litany of policies that would utilize the war to rebuild society better than previously. If you look at other democratic societies right now, the most successful non-government parties all looked beyond their Coronavirus unity governments. The pandemic either exposed some fault that must be corrected for, its an excuse to move forward on some transformative policy, or the country should reform while rebuilding and progress towards something better.

Which brings us to the case of Andy Burnam, whose stock is on the rise since before the locals. He's got a program, a clear identity, a platform of experience presently outside of Westminster, and I'm not sure if there is anyone who isn't factionalized enough to stop him.

He doesn't have a Westminster seat & even a resignation to find him one this year could have a disastrous impact- seeing as he pledged to serve a full term. I expect he will run for a seat in 2023- the joy of being popular & being a mayor & running with that exact purpose is that seat shopping is a lot easier!

   

[Blair]

Arguably Keir only won in 2020 because the Talent Pool was so dire & those who were better politicians than him couldn't bear to play the 'pretend to like Corbynism & serve in the Shadow Cabinet' role.

Labour has a very real problem in thinking that the grass is always greener with another leader- Gordon would be better than Tony, David better that Ed, Dan Jarvis better than Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper better than Corbyn, Keir better than Corbyn & now Burnham better than Keir- and will no doubt return if Burnham becomes leader & we have the moral panic about one his many flaws.

It is also worth remembering that a lot of people want Labour to lose these by-elections as they want an excuse to get rid of Keir- it was the exact same for the Labour right in 2016. I'm not sure how much of it is just hyper-onlineism but the Labour party has a toxicity problem that neither other party has.

It was being briefed last year that Keir would be challenged in year two if he was not leading in the polls (and it was briefed the day after JC became leader that he would be removed)

[Blair]

There's some pretty wild expectations management going on but the only constant is no-one expects Labour to win.

It would take a Hartlepool esque margin to actually trigger something beyond a 'huh as expected' reaction.

[Blair]

Without any local knowledge this is a seat that Labour should improve on compared to 2019 even if they're still on track to lose the next election.

The Labour share of the vote in 2019 was still higher than 2015 & 2010.

It has passing similarities to the types of voters that Keir based his leadership on winning; the seat might be in Greater London but I don't necessarily see it as a London based seat.

One interesting development; I think Labour's new by-election selection rules will apply. This means the shortlist will be drawn up by 5 people; three from the local party executive (a body elected yearly by local members), one from the regional board (in this case London- recently switched to being controlled by Lab Moderates) and one from the NEC (most likely a union member to continue THIGMOO)

Who will Labour pick? The local council has 10 labour councillors; but it's the type of seat where London adjacent people (union officials, party staffers, bag carriers etc) can find a local connection & run. So I expect a dry run from someone who wants to be an MP one day... in that spirit Labour's candidate in 2006 Bromley by-election was Rachel Reeves (she is from South London but now represents a seat in Leeds)

[Blair]

Labour have had the decency not to campaign in this seat beforehand to this news.

Other parties, who shall remain nameless, were widely reported to have campaigned when MPs have been on their deathbed in the past.

[Blair]

Sunak and May both visited Bexley (the latter might be because James Brokenshire was one of TM’s true allies in politics)

However this is certainly the type of by-election where I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Governments vote cater.

[Blair]

Labour's candidate for the last few GEs in N Shropshire told he won't be shortlisted - and has stormed out of the party in a huff.

I would have expected this with someone parachuted in 2019 but seems a bit odd as he ran in 2015- although I guess this is one of those CLPs with 6 active members, who all hate each other.

Currie, who has been a member of Labour for more than 40 years, feels he has been unfairly judged for social media posts in support of Palestine. He called the local executive committee "Stalinist" and said the party has "a corruption in its soul".

In a lengthy statement, he said: "Yesterday the Labour Party National Executive Committee (NEC) blocked my inclusion onto the North Shropshire local members hustings to shortlist for the upcoming by-election candidate. This hustings is taking place today [Sunday].

"Under the guise of 'due diligence' they raised spurious concerns regarding a tweet in 2018 of a Palestinian badge and a Facebook post in 2020 where I quoted Jeremy Corbyn calling for calm following the Equalities Commission’s report on findings of Institutional anti-Semitism in the Labour Party.

"I consider I have been unjustly slurred as anti-Semitic. I abhor this slur and I am devastated and disgusted.

"I have been a member of the Labour Party since 1980, have held various elected positions and previously been the North Shropshire parliamentary candidate for the past three general elections.

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2021/11/14/betrayed-and-abused-labours-previous-north-shropshire-candidate-not-shortlisted-for-by-election/

[Blair]

Ha classic Lib Dems- 'do you hate issue x... we also hate it...' is basically their entire by-election shtick.

https://twitter.com/MatthewGreen02/status/1459864644278001667

[Blair]

What are people's hunches for Bexley?

I'm torn between it being virtually no real change from 2019 but equally can see a case where the bottom really does fall out of the Tories vote share (as happens in virtually every by-election with an unpopular government)

[Blair]

Someone keeps posting rubbish about betting odds for North Shropshire by election on Twitter and it turns out they’re a former Lib Dem MP. Just embarrassing

[Blair]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59435987

First time I've seen vox-pop praise for Keir in well a while.

I'm starting to suspect the Conservative majority will almost certainly be below 8,000- I've heard some labour activists say it feels similar to Chesham and Amersham in that safe conservative voters are not happy. 

[Blair]

Not sure if it's been proven but it was long said that the nature of how the MP departed could make a difference; I think MPs who've passed away are very broadly, less likely to lose, compared to ones who've been kicked out for being a crook. (with the obvious caveats)

My experience is that the Lib Dems do genuinely have a better idea in by-elections compared to General Elections- where they've had a pretty awful record at targeting in GEs for a number of factors, mostly that there chances are very dependent on how the two larger parties vote.

I think the danger is always people saying 'figure X shows we're going to win'- even experienced organisers who've worked the seat before can only really make an educated guess & that's based on previous results. For example in Batley & Spen if you'd told Labour in 2020 that their candidate would do awfully in Batley you'd be very worried (but Kim Leadbeater did historically very well in Spen Valley & in other parts that have been hostile to Labour) 

I would still be very surprised if the Tories lose; unlike Amersham there is still a Labour vote that will even on a bad day & with tactical voting get a figure that could save the Conservatives. It's been noted that both parties have an unofficial pact; something that was the case in the summer by-elections.

That said, I've seen some musings online that the Lib Dems only release this sort of data when they actually win by-elections, and you don't see this kind of ramping when they come short, i.e., they know more about their chances of winning than they let on and only message this strongly when they genuinely think they're going to win.

I've been around for long enough to know that this really isn't true - although it's possible that the last line there is. Quite a lot of hyped-up LibDem challenges in by-elections have amounted to a significant increase in support and yet still a clear defeat, while near-misses have been as common as spectacular victories. By-elections are strange things: sometimes it is very, very clear what is happening, but quite often all of the campaigns involved are blind to how things are going for everyone else.

This was the case I think in Whitney in 2016; it was written off when it started & didn't get a lot of coverage- but the Lib Dems I think reduced the majority down to 5,000. It was a sign that remain voters were willing to move & played out in a number of similar seats & local wards in 2017.

[Blair]

Anyway baseless predictions time.

I'm not going to try raw vote totals but I'd guess a Conservative Majority between 4-6K.

[Blair]

Reform need a better name, a leader who isn’t just an ex donor and some better talent- it’s still a shell of the Brexit party elements.

I’m surprised it hasn’t merged with Reclaim- would be a lot more potent.

Yes, Old Bexley and Sidcup is ancestrally Tory, but in a *very* different way to C&A.

The Tory protest vote is most likely to sit at home rather than consider another party. The poor weather in this part of the world today won't have helped.
I don't think ReformUK will get to double digits, but they should save their deposit reasonably comofrtably. It's good demographically with it being leave, very white, and well-off working class. They've also run a reasonably high profile campaign, but the party is a shell of its former Brexit self.
The Lib Dems have no history here and it isn't fertile ground at all (not as wealthy, educated or remain as C&A). They'll likely end up a point or two short of saving their deposit.
I'm interested to see Labour's numbers. There won't be many switchers, but a score above the 29.3% they got in 2017 would be very reasonable and it'd be an excellent night if they got to 1997's 35.1% no matter what the pundits say. I think the latter is quite unlikely, but it's quite dependent on how well RefomUK do.

I’m not sure- despite what FBPE Twitter says most voters especially in by-elections know how to vote if they want to punish the Tories. So I think you’ll see some Tory-Labour switchers.

The weather was fine and not an issue- other than it being dark. You can tell this from the numerous photos of activists in the seat.

[Blair]

Well the online reaction to the by-election has been very weird- with the anti Keir left saying it was a disaster based on the vote total being below 2019- when they’ve always been v keen on using % vote share for other metrics.

A funny example of the Labour forever war is the endless fight to spin by-election results- I remember Copeland in 2017 being blamed on Blair among other things.

[Blair]

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.