UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Blair]

I need someone to confirm it but it seems her sentence has been reduced so she can’t be recalled…

[Blair]

Early days and all but I’m struggling to see any sort of Conservative campaign in Wakefield- other than Dowden tweeting about hedges. I know it’s often much more under the radar with the Tories but there’s nothing really they can do- there isn’t a one big employer in the seat, there aren’t much community/racial politics for them to shake up.

I guess it will just be Facebook posts about energy bills.

[Blair]

This is meme worthy- including the hilarious cameo from the candidate.  No subtitles, lots of background noise and banging on about a referendum that happened 7 years ago.

https://mobile.twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1531676622813908998

[Blair]

I might be imagining it but it's interesting that a fair few Conservative commentators (who are largely anti-Boris) seem to think they'll win Tiverton.

The only difference to Wakefield & Shropshire is that the reason for the resignation was rather hilarious & also short lived, and they seem to have at least have a local candidate. But the political picture looks a lot worse than it did in late December...

[Blair]

If this is the result there will be the usual idiots in Labour going on about vote share- as with all THIGMOO election results you find any metric to prove it's actually a bad result for your opponent*- see the claims that Bexley was a bad result, despite a swing & higher vote share, based on the raw vote totals. But it's a pointless comparison!

However... the main thing is the Conservative vote dropping like an absolute rock which is what happens when Governments are doing very badly & by-elections come along. Interesting that the Green vote is so high.

*The Labour right was just as bad imo.

[Blair]

Amersham was also a lot more leafy commuter belt than the other two- there’s a reason why it was mainly about planning and the dreaded ‘sprawl’ of new developments.

It’s also based on vibes but it seemed very much like the type of place where the Conservative voters would have been members of Cafod, various local civic societies and would donate to the RNLI, and so forth- the type of place John Major talked about in the 1990s as being England.

[Blair]

Usual caveats but there is genuine talk of people switching to Labour with some enthusiasm and also of the Conservative villages basically going on strike.

The interesting thing is that the norm for the last what 15 years has been for Labour to struggle in these sort of by-elections e.g Oldham, Rotherham.

[Blair]

My point was that in those seats Labour generally had to drag it’s vote out- there doesn’t seem to be that same feeling, although a lot of that is because it’s Tory held.

 I did confuse Rotterham with Heywood somehow!

[Blair]

Well, not exactly an internal poll leak, but certainly some expectation-setting:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1534485560106143744

Why would a former Liberal Democrat MP know the overall margin and then leak it to the Telegraph? And how do they arrive at the 5000 figure given the exact result is obviously not baked in weeks before the actual election?

Expectation seeking indeed.

They often use ex MPs on campaigns- they’re free Labour!

[Blair]

Very early muttering about a Reading (East?) by election if Alok Sharma quits to take up a UN climate position.

Doing so would be an FU to the Government as it would be a hard by-election to defend- I didn’t realise how marginal it was even in 2019.

[Blair]

Yeah it’s a bizarre theory.

It’s like suggesting Kate Hoey would have access to Labour polling data.

[Blair]

Remember when we asked why the Mail kept publishing rubbish re ‘Lib-Lab evil pact’.

It’s basically done by CCHQ so they can put their claims on leaflets like this as impartial newspaper headlines.

https://mobile.twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1534340691576356869

[Blair]

Boris visiting Tiverton.

Was rumoured to be happening- did he visit North Shropshire?

[Blair]

Boris visiting Tiverton.

Was rumoured to be happening- did he visit North Shropshire?

A mildly interesting fact is that Prime Ministers never used to do campaign visits to constituencies holding by-elections. Blair breached this once (Beckenham) but it didn't work out, so never did again, and so things remained until May started making such trips normal and Johnson completely routine.

Another sex related by-election- a park bench was involved I believe!

Still weird Beckenham was very close- although actually the old boundary pre 2010 has a lot more of the well ‘south London’ wards rather than leafy stockbroker type wards.

[Blair]

Do visits by high profile figures tend to make much difference in by elections ?

They use to (in the 70s and 80s- maybe early 90s) be much bigger affairs when they visited- daily press conferences, packed public halls and rallies and so forth- so it might have made a more marginal difference back then

Now says the visits are largely to show you’ve done it and get patted on the back- they often eat up time and energy that could be spent on other things..

[Blair]

Hahahah oh I miss New Labour.

Chartered Accountant working for One North-East. Born in Hartlepool and educated at Manor Comprehensive School. Member of Hartlepool Borough Council for Rift House ward from 2002. Cabinet Member for Performance Management. Member of the GMB. Member of the North East Regional Board of the Labour Party.

The main themes of his campaign were:

'Shop-a-yob' to combat crime and anti-social behavior.

Lives here, went to school here, works here, uses the local hospital.

Stop 'Jody come lately' - remember her insult to the town.

Election literature available:

[Blair]

I still don’t understand how the prospect of losing Tiverton isn’t causing more a panic- I mean what will the spin be when you lose a by election that had a 25K majority and no local issues?

[Blair]

I still don’t understand how the prospect of losing Tiverton isn’t causing more a panic- I mean what will the spin be when you lose a by election that had a 25K majority and no local issues?

“The midterms are always poor for the government, the Lib Dems always do well at by-elections, another poor performance by Labour, the people opposed to Boris need to stop the infighting etc”.

Ha CCHQ will be calling!

I think having it on the same day will make it worse especially if Labour win by more than 3-4K- as it negates the second talking point.

[Blair]

FWIW the canvass data doesn’t include postal votes.

You’d expect these in a GE to favour the Conservatives but both Lib Dem and Labour rely on them heavily in by-elections.

Yeah this is an interesting situation because, unlike North Shropshire or even more so Chesham & Amersham, there's no sense that the Conservatives have been caught napping here: they're throwing the kitchen sink at the place. Which means a very different dynamic. LibDems putting out the obvious tactical squeeze message tells us they think it's competitive, but we all assumed that anyway!

And unlike Chesham there isn’t HS2 or planning as a local issue to really annoy local conservatives. I’ve also noticed that ambitious Conservative cllrs, activists are going to Tiverton- they didn’t go to Shropshire!

I still deep down expect a Liberal win but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Conservatives hold it and the takes will be ridiculous.

[Blair]

This is why by-elections are great. Would a US special Election for TX-98 have something this hilarious?

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1537448702016737280

[Blair]

One of her leaflets is circulating on Twitter and not only is there no Boris on it but there’s no Conservative branding at all- even last year they were still making an effort to keep the party branding.

Shows how toxic they are and the sane people running the campaigns know this, while the headless gulls in Westminster have no idea.

[Blair]

Well, that reception for the Tory candidate in T&H is certainly interesting given some pundits seem to be suggesting the Tories have a chance on hanging on there.

(OTOH the bookies made the LibDems clear favourites a while ago and that hasn't changed)

Yeah on reflection it was weird how expectation management & the extremely poor position of the Conservatives meant that this seat was seen on the day Parish resigned as a guaranteed Lib-Dem win- despite the fact they've never won this seat & it was a huge majority.

 

[Blair]

To think Batley was only a year ago...

https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1538124876594257921

[Blair]

Yeah Crewe is remembered as causing a massive panic after an awful campaign but it was only a 7K majority- Tiverton is very much not this!

For some stupid reason losing a seat like Reading West would actually cause a bigger panic than this will- it will (publicly) be put down to the Liberals machine, the evil media and tractor gate. Smarter Tories in private will be worrying though.

[Blair]

It is still insane that a 25K majority being lost without any local issue is seen as normal.