UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Blair]

It’s to put it bluntly a lot of rubbish that was written to be leaked; it even says ‘oh well Rishi is much more popular, and Keir isn’t popular and labour aren’t winning any switchers’ which is what they’ve been briefing for months.

It also has a comically low rate of labour-Tory switchers compared to the national polls.

And it makes no sense as an internal document as it only seems to rely on one form of field data and doesn’t really help the party in any sense. But again some 27 year old in CCHQ will be bragging about landing a great git- this was if we remember the same CCHQ that proudly boasted they would lose 1,000 seats in a form of expectation management that ended up coming true.

[TheTide]

There is a by-election special programme on the BBC starting at a quarter past midnight.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Reading between the lines, the memo also suggests that their data for both seats is mostly either poor quality or non-existent.

[CumbrianLefty]

The last few Labour memos from Tamworth are using the "neck and neck" line, I note.

(whereas in Mid Beds, its all a bit vaguer than that)

[Torrain]

Small subplot in the Tamworth by-election today. The Conservative candidate shared a joke flowchart, telling parents who can't feed their children to "f**k off", a year or two back - which was discovered by the papers yesterday.

It came up at PMQs, and the candidate has now given an interview where he offers a qualified apology:
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1714687235230961855
Very late in the game for this to have *any* sort of impact. But given it got picked up in the Commons, and then by the candidate himself, thought it was at least worth noting.

If nothing else, it reopens the discussion about the state of Conservative vetting. I'm not saying they should have dropped him, but surely they could have at least taken a skim through his public Facebook profile for anything the Mirror might jump on?

[YL]

Polls have opened.  Here's Andrew Teale's preview.

[afleitch]

People made 'give up the telly and the chippie and the fags'  jibes decades ago. That's nothing new. But mobile phones are necessities now. Particularly if you need to engage with public bodies from DWP to your GP.

[Blair]

It really is up in the air but I do wonder if the Lib Dems might do a good enough job at pulling the Conservative vote down at the edges and allow Labour to come up the middle; or even a weird three way result.

While I know the vibe & optic police will be out in force if the Conservatives win both it is interesting that both by elections are generally not seen as important; compared to say Uxbridge, Rutherlegen, Wakefield or even Selby

[Blair]

People made 'give up the telly and the chippie and the fags'  jibes decades ago. That's nothing new. But mobile phones are necessities now. Particularly if you need to engage with public bodies from DWP to your GP.

Yes it's a very good test to see who doesn't actually understand how the public realm works; especially as now a lot of less affluent people rely on a smart phone to access the internet too as they can't afford an ipad or laptop.

And it's cheaper to get it on a monthly rolling contract anyway

[Pericles]

It's insane how this government is so unpopular that comfortable Labour victories are now the boring, expected outcome in by-elections even in deeply Tory seats.

[CumbrianLefty]

People made 'give up the telly and the chippie and the fags'  jibes decades ago. That's nothing new. But mobile phones are necessities now. Particularly if you need to engage with public bodies from DWP to your GP.

Yes it's a very good test to see who doesn't actually understand how the public realm works; especially as now a lot of less affluent people rely on a smart phone to access the internet too as they can't afford an ipad or laptop.

And it's cheaper to get it on a monthly rolling contract anyway

The bottom line is that the Tory candidate's guff will go down well with much of their core boomer vote - but that alone isn't enough to win elections.

Most in Generation X and younger know it is nonsense from their own personal experience.

[TheTide]

People made 'give up the telly and the chippie and the fags'  jibes decades ago. That's nothing new. But mobile phones are necessities now. Particularly if you need to engage with public bodies from DWP to your GP.

In fairness, the price of fish and chips these days is enough to land anyone in swift financial trouble.

[Conservatopia]

People made 'give up the telly and the chippie and the fags'  jibes decades ago. That's nothing new. But mobile phones are necessities now. Particularly if you need to engage with public bodies from DWP to your GP.

In fairness, the price of fish and chips these days is enough to land anyone in swift financial trouble.

Cod at my one is like 8.70 now. If I took that same money to Aldi I could (and do) buy more than I could eat.

Why isn't the government taking action on fish and chips inflation??

[CumbrianLefty]

I had a chippy tea recently for the first time in a year or so.

Even in that time, the price increase has been pretty hefty.

[oldtimer]

I had a chippy tea recently for the first time in a year or so.

Even in that time, the price increase has been pretty hefty.

I think it's due to Electricity, Gas costs, Rent costs, and resistance to price cutting.  

What goes up usually never comes down with prices.

[Blair]

This chat is dangerous for my waistline.

[Torrain]

Last trip back to my hometown, the prices had almost doubled. And that’s in a fishing village that lands most of the fish they then fillet and fry. Crazy times.

[afleitch]

People made 'give up the telly and the chippie and the fags'  jibes decades ago. That's nothing new. But mobile phones are necessities now. Particularly if you need to engage with public bodies from DWP to your GP.

Yes it's a very good test to see who doesn't actually understand how the public realm works; especially as now a lot of less affluent people rely on a smart phone to access the internet too as they can't afford an ipad or laptop.

And it's cheaper to get it on a monthly rolling contract anyway

The bottom line is that the Tory candidate's line will go down well with much of their core boomer vote - but that alone isn't enough to win elections.

Most in Generation X and younger know it is nonsense from their own personal experience.

It's been quite something having to walk my, generally Labour supporting parents, that if they were raising us today, less the access to benefits, less child benefit for two of us, less the council house etc, with an insane proportion of earnings going on rent etc, we'd be destitute, whenever the topic of 'people could go without x' comes up.

A 'fill your boots' 90's boom helping to support early retirement has led to quote an alarming disconnect with working life today that I think it's a recurring theme for a lot of boomers.

[Epaminondas]

A 'fill your boots' 90's boom helping to support early retirement has led to quote an alarming disconnect with working life today that I think it's a recurring theme for a lot of boomers.

Have pensions been pegged to inflation under Major? I know several public servant retirees with bonkers pensions (over 35g, sometimes £40g a year) and can't quite understand how they got there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The state pension is,* but the state pension is a classic Rowntree Liberal (i.e. poverty trap avoidance) measure exists to top up any existing arrangements and is presently slight more than £200 a week and that's at 'full rate'. The very, very large pensions some people have are old Defined Benefit ('final salary') schemes that have now largely been closed to new pensioners and which were only available in certain occupations to start with. Some of them are genuinely quite extravagant. The phenomenon of a mid level public sector employee retiring and then immediately swinging forty foot to the right is well known and is not exactly unrelated.

_{*Via the so-called 'triple lock' mechanism that means it rises by whichever of the following is highest: CPI inflation, wages growth, a figure of 2.5%.}

[EastAnglianLefty]

The state pension is,* but the state pension is a classic Rowntree Liberal (i.e. poverty trap avoidance) measure exists to top up any existing arrangements and is presently slight more than £200 a week and that's at 'full rate'. The very, very large pensions some people have are old Defined Benefit ('final salary') schemes that have now largely been closed to new pensioners and which were only available in certain occupations to start with. Some of them are genuinely quite extravagant. The phenomenon of a mid level public sector employee retiring and then immediately swinging forty foot to the right is well known and is not exactly unrelated.

_{*Via the so-called 'triple lock' mechanism that means it rises by whichever of the following is highest: CPI inflation, wages growth, a figure of 2.5%.}

DB schemes still exist in bits of the public sector, but they're based on career average earnings rather than final salary; often have a lower accrual rate; and are sometimes limited to a maximum salary, with pensions contributions above that going to a defined contribution scheme.

They're still much better than provision at an equivalent salary in the private sector (and a big bit of the reason I choose to work in the public sector) but much reduced from what they were.

[YL]

It's insane how this government is so unpopular that comfortable Labour victories are now the boring, expected outcome in by-elections even in deeply Tory seats.

I suppose that applies to Tamworth (if you count it as deeply Tory, which is fair enough based on the last three General Elections but not on what came before that) but not really to Mid Beds, though I think the feeling that the Tories may well hold that is only because of the potential for the opposition vote to be deeply split.

The other thing is that a lot of people commenting will remember the 1992-97 Parliament, when the Tories managed to fail to win a single by-election in the entire Parliament, even losing Christchurch in a landslide to the Lib Dems.  So there's an impression that unpopular Conservative governments don't win by-elections, though in that Parliament the stronger Tory seats always went Lib Dem, not Labour; Labour only won the three seats (including South East Staffordshire, i.e. Tamworth) they were always likely to win if they got a reasonable majority in a General Election in that period.

[YL]

Rachel Wearmouth on Twitter "hearing Labour's ahead on postal votes in Tamworth".  Tories usually do better on postal votes so if that's true...

[Torrain]

Aye...

Lots of commentary about the impact of Storm Babet on election-day turnout, but hard to know how seriously to take that. Especially given the commentary is getting a bit "rain in NoVa".

Lib Dem line in Mid Beds is quite defensive, sounds more like they're geared up for third place than anything else.

[TheTide]

Rachel Wearmouth on Twitter "hearing Labour's ahead on postal votes in Tamworth".  Tories usually do better on postal votes so if that's true...

She also says that Labour are 'very positive' about Mid Bedfordshire, and the Lib Dems are saying they've been 'working hard' in the smaller villages. It's very early but I don't recall Labour sounding that confident in Uxbridge at this time of the night (and for good reason as it turned out).