UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

Labour List has an article about Mid Bedfordshire

Snippet:

Another member of my canvassing team talks to a woman who airs a wide variety of complaints about contemporary Britain’s lack of “racial purity”, ultimately concluding that it would have been better if Germany had won the Second World War. She was mulling over whether Labour or the Liberal Democrats were the smarter choice for her anti-Tory tactical vote.

According to polling in the Telegraph, the smartest home for the anti-Tory tactical vote, Nazi or otherwise, is with Labour’s Alistair Strathern.

LOL

[EastAnglianLefty]

I really wonder why they aren’t panicking more about Selby- this is not a seat that they should be losing to Labour and it would suggest the bottom of their vote has fallen out.

There's a distinctive lack of seriousness to the Tories, which this piece sets out quite well: https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tories-braced-three-by-election-defeats-blame-game-2480670

Lots of talking about things that are comparatively unimportant in the grand scheme of things but important to the individuals who benefit from them, but a tendency to ignore the actual serious problems they face.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not obvious.  It was Tory in 2005 by about 4.3 percentage points according to the "official" notional results, and if you extrapolate the swings in the then Selby back you get it being Tory by a whisker in 2001 and Labour by a slightly larger whisker in 1997.  But I suspect that those 2005 notionals over-estimated the Lib Dems and under-estimated Labour in the part of the old Selby which went into York Outer, and hence did the reverse in the bit which stayed with Selby.  (Part of the reason I suspect that is that the 2010 vote share changes in Selby & Ainsty become less extreme if you assume that.)  If that's right, then it would tend to suggest that S & A was actually carried by the Tories in 1997.

The Yorkshire notionals for the last boundary review were atrocious, weren't they? In this case the issue was a failure to realize how much of the massive LibDem dominance in the non-York parts of York UA was a purely local elections thing. Grogan will have topped the poll in both Fulford and Heslington even in 2005...

If not 1997, then possibly 1945, when Barkston Ash was very close, but I haven't attempted to analyse the difference between the two constituencies.  Otherwise the answer may be "never".

That's a tricky one as so much  of Barkston Ash was further west and as large parts of post-83 Selby constituencies were previously in the East Riding, but it might be worth having a look over the map. The Labour candidate who near won in 1945 was Bert Hazell, later the last Labour MP for North Norfolk and President of the Farm Workers union.

[Holmes]

Labour List has an article about Mid Bedfordshire

Snippet:

Another member of my canvassing team talks to a woman who airs a wide variety of complaints about contemporary Britain’s lack of “racial purity”, ultimately concluding that it would have been better if Germany had won the Second World War. She was mulling over whether Labour or the Liberal Democrats were the smarter choice for her anti-Tory tactical vote.

According to polling in the Telegraph, the smartest home for the anti-Tory tactical vote, Nazi or otherwise, is with Labour’s Alistair Strathern.

LOL

She sounds like an Appalachian voter who still somehow votes Democratic.

[YL]

With two days to go the feelings I'm getting are

Somerton & Frome: very easy Lib Dem gain
Selby & Ainsty: interestingly comfortable Labour gain
Uxbridge & South Ruislip: probably Labour gain, but less impressive than the other two

Could be way out of course.

[Tintrlvr]

My forecasts:

Somerton & Frome: LD majority around 10,000 (huge swing)
Selby & Ainsty: Labour majority around 4,000 (huge swing)
Uxbridge & South Ruislip: Labour majority also around 4,000 (i.e., a much lower swing than Selby but ending up at about the same result)

[JimJamUK]

Somerton and Frome is probably the by-election with the greatest uncertainly around the margin (not the actual winner of course). It seems to have gone under the radar compared to the previous 3 Tory-Lib Dem by elections and there’s a few indications that the Lib Dem might not do as well as you might expect given the national situation. Although now that I’ve said this they’ll probably blow the Tories out the water.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though some Tories seem to think they could be almost obliterated in S/F - let's not forget they have had an absentee MP in effect for over a year, and by all accounts the locals have not taken it well.

Compared to that, the LibDem hopeful being less than top notch may be a more minor matter.

[MABA 2020]

Does anyone think the Tories will win any of the seats on Thursday?

[Oryxslayer]

Does anyone think the Tories will win any of the seats on Thursday?

They are fairly far in the hole when it comes to expectations in all three, which shouldn't be surprising given polling.

Weirdly though, I think it would be S&F which would be the hold if they were to hold any. Selby is the type of place where Labour support is seemingly highly fluid, which in this moment means a massive swing. London meanwhile has fiercer partisans, but the type of voters who have swung are those who are responding firmly and confidently to polls of their Labour support. So a smaller but more durable swing in Uxbridge.

Meanwhile S&F has less eyes on it, and while the Lib-Dem swing can at times be massive, they can also at times be underwhelming. But really nobody should bet against the Lib-Dem by-election machine.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Curious that this announcement came this week, huh?

[TheTide]

Polling stations opened at 7AM (just over two hours ago). Rumours should start doing the rounds pretty quickly after 10PM or even before.

I may be made to look silly by this later, but if the Tories thought Uxbridge and South Ruislip were neck-and-neck or close, would they have allowed Leadsom and Grayling anywhere near?

https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1681939253884796928?s=20

[Blair]

A sign of the times is that I thought Somerton was only a 7-8K majority because it’s so widely expected to flip- but no, it’s almost 20K!

It says something that there’s two seats with such huge majorities and there’s barely a shrug that they will not only be lost but lost easily. A bit like Crewe and Norwich in the fag end of the New Labour days.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously let us not prejudge outcomes as by-elections are odd things, but that the possibility is almost being shrugged off despite there being no special factors in any of the constituencies up is... er...

[TheTide]

A sign of the times is that I thought Somerton was only a 7-8K majority because it’s so widely expected to flip- but no, it’s almost 20K!

It says something that there’s two seats with such huge majorities and there’s barely a shrug that they will not only be lost but lost easily. A bit like Crewe and Norwich in the fag end of the New Labour days.

Crewe and Nantwich. Crewe and Norwich would look quite something on the map. 

[CumbrianLefty]

Am I right that Sunak has visited neither Uxbridge or Selby, despite the first being near to his place of work and the second pretty close to his own seat?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Polling stations opened at 7AM (just over two hours ago). Rumours should start doing the rounds pretty quickly after 10PM or even before.

I may be made to look silly by this later, but if the Tories thought Uxbridge and South Ruislip were neck-and-neck or close, would they have allowed Leadsom and Grayling anywhere near?

https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1681939253884796928?s=20

As a general rule, in the last week all you're really doing is contacting supporters you've already identified to make sure they turn out. Neither Leadsom nor Grayling is so well-known that they'd be unsuitable for that.

A sign of the times is that I thought Somerton was only a 7-8K majority because it’s so widely expected to flip- but no, it’s almost 20K!

It says something that there’s two seats with such huge majorities and there’s barely a shrug that they will not only be lost but lost easily. A bit like Crewe and Norwich in the fag end of the New Labour days.

Crewe and Nantwich. Crewe and Norwich would look quite something on the map. 

No, there was the Crewe & Nantwich by-election but there was also the Norwich North by-election in 2009, at the height of the expenses scandal. The result in the latter was actually slightly better for Labour than expected - feedback on the doorstep was so awful that there was a genuine fear amongst activists that we might come fourth.

[TheTide]

Polling stations opened at 7AM (just over two hours ago). Rumours should start doing the rounds pretty quickly after 10PM or even before.

I may be made to look silly by this later, but if the Tories thought Uxbridge and South Ruislip were neck-and-neck or close, would they have allowed Leadsom and Grayling anywhere near?

https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1681939253884796928?s=20

As a general rule, in the last week all you're really doing is contacting supporters you've already identified to make sure they turn out. Neither Leadsom nor Grayling is so well-known that they'd be unsuitable for that.

A sign of the times is that I thought Somerton was only a 7-8K majority because it’s so widely expected to flip- but no, it’s almost 20K!

It says something that there’s two seats with such huge majorities and there’s barely a shrug that they will not only be lost but lost easily. A bit like Crewe and Norwich in the fag end of the New Labour days.

Crewe and Nantwich. Crewe and Norwich would look quite something on the map. 

No, there was the Crewe & Nantwich by-election but there was also the Norwich North by-election in 2009, at the height of the expenses scandal. The result in the latter was actually slightly better for Labour than expected - feedback on the doorstep was so awful that there was a genuine fear amongst activists that we might come fourth.

Ahhhh, I remember Norwich North (or not evidently). Just had a brain falter from seeing Crewe and *name that begins with N and ends in 'wich'* together and forgot about Norwich North from the following year.

[Oryxslayer]

Teale's preview of the 3 seats.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Teale's preview of the 3 seats.

Very fun read

[Storr]

lol

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1682046732207632388?s=20

[Storr]

Teale's preview of the 3 seats.

Very fun read

Wait...what?

"Eight other candidates have been nominated. Top of the ballot paper is Andrew Gray, an independent candidate from Harrogate who claims to be the AI-powered candidate. I suppose it had to happen at some point. "

[YL]

Teale's preview of the 3 seats.

Very fun read

Wait...what?

"Eight other candidates have been nominated. Top of the ballot paper is Andrew Gray, an independent candidate from Harrogate who claims to be the AI-powered candidate. I suppose it had to happen at some point. "

Here's his website: https://www.andrew-gray.org/

[Storr]

Teale's preview of the 3 seats.

Very fun read

Wait...what?

"Eight other candidates have been nominated. Top of the ballot paper is Andrew Gray, an independent candidate from Harrogate who claims to be the AI-powered candidate. I suppose it had to happen at some point. "

Here's his website: https://www.andrew-gray.org/

This is what hell looks like: AI generated political manifestos and vague sentiments about improving democracy through using "technology".

"Andrew Gray: Driving Democracy with Ethical AI"

"By combining the power of technology and local voices, we can address real issues, find consensus and achieve true democracy."

"Join this constituency conversation, make statements and cast your opinion. See how technology can help us achieve true consensus."

"In a UK-first – perhaps even a world first – on the 26 June 2023, Andrew Gray began to crowdsource the views of the people of the Selby and Ainsty constituency, using machine-learning AI, in order to create this manifesto."

Edit: The statement below is so confoundingly vague and bland it could only be made by AI or a sleep deprived former corporate public relations spokesperson with dementia:

"Maintain support for Ukraine but be open to pragmatic peace deal that delivers for the people of Ukraine

North Yorkshire stands proudly with our brothers and sisters in Ukraine."

Edit #2: How is 54% a "sweeping consensus"?

"Distance ourselves from the US

The Special Relationship has been especially one-sided of late, and their turmoil should not affect our economic stability.

The consensus…

I want close alignment with the USA

Sweeping Consensus – 54% Disagree"

[Blair]

Love when people discover how insane by elections can be