UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Tintrlvr]

There's a non-zero chance of Labour losing their deposit in this by-election.  Would this be seen as "Labour in disarray" or would it not be all that big a deal?  When last did one of the two big parties lose a deposit at a Westminster seat?

If the race is viewed as a Tory-Lib Dem contest then it wouldn't be that surprising. Labour lost their deposit at the Richmond Park by-election and I think almost did in Bromley and Chislehurst where they came fourth.

At this point I would be surprised if Labour didn't lose their deposit, and would think it reflected badly on the Lib Dem campaign.

LibDems surely need the Greens to also lose theirs to have any chance.

The Greens losing their deposit wouldn't be terribly surprising. They only got 5.5% in 2019 in C&A and have lost their deposits at most recent elections (2001, 2005, 2010, 2017; kept it in 2015 and 2019).

Personally I think Labour and the Greens will both lose their deposits but the Lib Dems still won't win, though they might break 40% and get the margin to mid-single digits.

[Tintrlvr]

We could be in for a special treat later this year:

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1407016831064416264?s=21

A Northern Irish Westminster By-Election in Lagan Valley. I don’t see it as being as competitive as some people are suggesting though. But you never know!

Alliance surged there last time, but hard to see them getting to the 35-40% they'd need to actually win the seat. Would be an immediate test of whether Donaldson could rescue the DUP's fortunes, though; right now, I'd think the DUP might be in danger of losing this seat to the UUP in a by-election if it somehow took place while Poots was still leader.

Incidentally, in the last election there won by a non-DUP candidate, the non-DUP candidate was UUP incumbent... Jeffrey Donaldson. And the losing DUP candidate was none other than Edwin Poots.

[Tintrlvr]

Are people there really bothered with politics this time of year, with the sun out, England just beat Germany...loads of factors point to a low turn out activist head count despite the considerable hype the media has tried to drum up for Galloway and the end of Starmer.

Honestly the media's long-term focus on this race makes me think big swings are less likely (and thus a Labour hold). By-elections seem to be much more likely to have sensational results the less attention that was paid to them beforehand.

[Tintrlvr]

Tbf there was debate at the time over the propriety of contesting byelections like Enfield Southgate in 1984 and indeed Eastbourne in 1990 (of course the Tories tried to raise it as an issue in the latter, but did so in such a crude and clumsy fashion that it undoubtedly backfired)

The nature of Cox's killing was so shocking and horrific, however, that Cameron's statement the Tories would not contest the resulting vacancy (followed by the other "main" parties, which in 2016 included UKIP even if that's not the case now) was half expected.

And having set that precedent, it would be tricky to back out of it now.

One other thing that I think was relevant for Batley and Spen was that, fundamentally, the by-election, if competitive, would almost certainly have centered on the same issue (Brexit and related grievances) that led to Jo Cox's murder. I think it was seen therefore as very difficult for the parties to campaign without inflaming tensions in that particular scenario.

Southend West feels like it doesn't suffer from the same issue at all, but the precedent was already set and is difficult to break.

[Tintrlvr]

What are people's hunches for Bexley?

I'm torn between it being virtually no real change from 2019 but equally can see a case where the bottom really does fall out of the Tories vote share (as happens in virtually every by-election with an unpopular government)

I think there will be a big slump for the Tories but no clear single gainer, with Labour, LDs and minor parties all up. Tories still hold with a big majority.

[Tintrlvr]

I've no idea what's going on down there (I live at the other end of the county and direct links are limited), but the LibDems in this part of the world have a playbook and it generally involves intense fishing for Labour tactical voters. In other words: this is something to put on leaflets to encourage that to happen and should be understood in that light and no other.

I do agree with that; it's no coincidence that LDEM+LAB is very narrowly > CON in that poll result.

That said, I've seen some musings online that the Lib Dems only release this sort of data when they actually win by-elections, and you don't see this kind of ramping when they come short, i.e., they know more about their chances of winning than they let on and only message this strongly when they genuinely think they're going to win.

[Tintrlvr]

I doubt the Liberal Democrats will die anytime soon, even if every LibDem MP is defeated hypothetically, they would still have a presence in local councils.

I guess it depends on your definition of "dead". For example, surely by any reasonable definition the continuation Liberal Party is "dead", but it does still exist and still elects a handful of councillors. The continuation SDP was even more "dead", having lost its last councillor, before it recently got a tiny breath of life when it was taken over by Brexit activists and even had an MEP in 2018-2019 (a defector from UKIP); is the party still alive?

Regardless, the Lib Dems are very clearly far more viable than either of those parties and continue to be quite alive in some parts of the country, if moribund in others. They were in much more dire straits in the early 1950s, kept alive only by the sentimentalism of random local Tory groups.

[Tintrlvr]

Olga Childs appears to be this person: https://sagareva.com/

The number of weird fringe righties running in races like this is a bit disturbing.

[Tintrlvr]

There's a likely by-election in Lagan Valley, caused by the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson needing to get himself into the Northern Ireland Assembly in the forthcoming election (this May) if he's going to become First Minister.

Briefly, it looked like this wasn't going to happen after all, because the Government announced a plan to remove the ban on double jobbing between Westminster and Stormont in certain restricted circumstances which looked rather specifically defined to allow Donaldson to remain an MP until the next Westminster election.  But now this plan, which went down pretty badly with everybody other than the DUP and some Tories, has been withdrawn, so the by-election is back on again.

This one looks to be a snoozefest based on past results, unless I’m missing something.

It ought to be, but there was a 17% swing to Alliance in 2019 and with the DUP not in particularly great shape at the moment they'd give it a go in a by-election.  If the big U Unionist vote splits they might have a chance.

The trouble for the Alliance is that they have had some local drama since 2019; their long-time MLA from the area, Trevor Lunn, defected to sit as an Independent in 2020. He's already announced his retirement at the next election anyway, but he's a huge figure in local politics in Lagan Valley and has left the Alliance a bit disorganized there in particular.

[Tintrlvr]

The result of Claudia Webbe's appeal against her conviction is due fairly soon, so its not impossible we could have three Westminster byelections in pretty quick succession.

Four, unless Jeffrey Donaldson decides to stay at Westminster and co-opt someone into his Assembly seat.

Maybe to avoid the embarrassment of being the first DUP Deputy First Minister?

I wonder if the Alliance could make a serious play for Lagan Valley in a by-election. The numbers don't feel like they are there, but if the UUP do just well enough, and there are enough nationalist tactical votes, maybe.

[Tintrlvr]

No by-election in Lagan Valley: Donaldson is staying in Westminster, and the DUP will be co-opting his seat at Stormont. Makes one wonder if the whole thing was just to make Edwin Poots sweat.

[Tintrlvr]

Both posts should be a reference point!

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

Bill Bryson said that following by-elections was in itself an eccentric quirk of the British that he never understood- they’re glorious affairs and have actually got a lot more dull. The ones in the 1980s and 1990s (and before) would have daily press conferences, packed public hall meetings and quite vicious scenes too.

Reports that Neil Tractor Parish is thinking of standing as an independent and has raised funds.

Would be hilarious.

Wait, so he will resign only to run again ?

Yes- he very much seemed to be pushed and is the type of loyalist who does what they’re told. He is claiming to want to run to represent the farming community who’ve been buggered in various ways by the Government.

huh, Would that Help the Lib-Dems/Labour by splitting the tory vote or hurt them by providing a conservative option without Boris's Baggage ?

Labour are irrelevant there, but it could go either way for the Lib Dems: On the one hand they should be hoovering up voters who dislike the government, so Parish running against the government also could hinder their efforts by splitting that vote, but on the other hand he may win mostly voters who are unhappy with the government but would literally never vote any party other than Tory, which could help them.

[Tintrlvr]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

Well, by most measures it ought to be an easier gain for them than North Shropshire…

Wasn't the Lib Dem Canidate over there also pretty unremarkable beyond being a local?

Yes, she had been the candidate who got 10% at the 2019 GE.

Overall, the Lib Dems need a smaller swing to win Tiverton and Honiton than happened in either Chesham and Amersham or North Shropshire, so it seems quite plausible that they could take it.

[Tintrlvr]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

Well, by most measures it ought to be an easier gain for them than North Shropshire…

Wasn't the Lib Dem Canidate over there also pretty unremarkable beyond being a local?

Yes, she had been the candidate who got 10% at the 2019 GE.

Overall, the Lib Dems need a smaller swing to win Tiverton and Honiton than happened in either Chesham and Amersham or North Shropshire, so it seems quite plausible that they could take it.

Not quite, C & A had a majority of "only" about 30% for the Tories in 2019.

(plus the LibDems actually started in second place there)

They *needed* a smaller swing in C&A, but the actual swing in C&A would be more than enough to flip T&H.

[Tintrlvr]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

He was pictured in front of a cow (subtle!) in the Telegraph but unsure if he’s a farmer too. Then again I don’t know if farming is simply a part of the constituency or the type of seat where every hustings has questions about milk quotas, grain prices and EU directive 1010192

The town of Uffculme that he lives in certainly looks like the latter on Google Maps: https://goo.gl/maps/bWddxWAfSUqh2Zuy5.

[Tintrlvr]

Ed Davey isn't someone who I am much of a fan of, but he is the ideal Lib Dem leader for by-elections such as North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton. Compare him to the other leaders or plausible leaders since 2015 - Swinson (fanatical fbper), Farron (disaster due to unconventional religious views), Cable (too much associated with the Coalition and Remain), Moran (would have been an idol of liberal-left Twitter, which means that she would have been a disaster as leader), Gina Miller (yes, I recall that this person was put forward as a potential leader of the Lib Dems or a similar outfit a few years prior). Davey is both inoffensive enough and someone who has been around the block enough in a political sense to do well in these kinds of contests. Of course, by this I mean that no one gives much of a crap about him or has even heard of him. Someone like Moran would have been tabloid gossip, and it would have cost the Lib Dems in electoral terms.

Daisy Cooper would have been a plausible alternative. But, yes, Davey's anonymity is an asset in this context. I'm not sure it's as much of an asset in a general election, where it's better for the leader to be a big personality (and Moran might be a better GE leader overall, albeit not in North Shropshire or Tiverton and Honiton!)

[Tintrlvr]

Well, I think today’s events have to be seen as the worst possible outcome for the Tories as far as these two by-elections go. Incidentally, has either Tory candidate staked out their own position?

[Tintrlvr]

Likelihood of a T&H poll?  It's nice to see not one but two (so far) confirming what we already suspected about Wakefield, but let's see where the real fun is getting started…

I think it's at least moderately likely that we get one from Survation.

Interestingly the Lib Dems haven't leaked anything yet (unless the tweet I mentioned in a previous post counts).

It’s a bit early for a Lib Dem poll leak; they usually like to wait until the last week. Of course, the widespread expectation that they will win is probably not viewed as a positive inside Lib Dem HQ.

[Tintrlvr]

Very early muttering about a Reading (East?) by election if Alok Sharma quits to take up a UN climate position.

Doing so would be an FU to the Government as it would be a hard by-election to defend- I didn’t realise how marginal it was even in 2019.

Reading West* and yes it would be another hard hold. I get the suspicion this seat is on borrowed time for the Tories and will be part of a future Labour opposition - like Cardiff North and Canterbury now.

Given the nature of the Tory demographics in the seat, if the bottom is falling out, Reading West is the sort of seat where the Tories could potentially fall from first to third, even though the Lib Dems were nowhere in the seat in 2019. Labour would win of course, but there are a lot of Tory voters who wouldn't switch to Labour but would be quite willing to vote Lib Dem.

[Tintrlvr]

I think he did, yes?

One thing about T & H is that the Tory candidate - who appeared impressive on paper - has proved to be something of a liability on the campaign trail. Whereas the LibDems seem to have gone with pretty much the ideal choice for a potential mid-term protest such as this.

What has she done that seems to make her a bad candidate?

[Tintrlvr]

I pointed out during the North Shropshire campaign that the Lib Dems only release internal "polls" when they are confident that they are going to win. I think that continues to hold true.

Also this is expectation-setting to try to counter the narrative that a Lib Dem victory is a foregone conclusion.

[Tintrlvr]

If the Old Bexley and Sidcup by election  was being held right now. Would the conservatives be likely to loose it ?

No, it's a very different seat from the sorts of seats the Tories are losing in by-elections and would be one of the last seats specifically Boris Johnson's Tories would lose even if they were headed for a near-total wipeout.

[Tintrlvr]

Anyway, the Lib Dems released some more numbers.  They now claim that they and the Tories are tied on 45%.

Do they now.

The result is going to be closer to Chesham & Amersham than North Shropshire, isn’t it?

[Tintrlvr]

Chatter of a by-election in Somerton and Frome. Would be another bruising LD-Con fight but surely the LDs would start out favored.

[Tintrlvr]

Tiverton & Honiton

LD 22,563
Con 16,393
Lab 1,562
Green 1,064
Reform UK 481
UKIP 241
Heritage 167
For Britain 146

LD maj = 6,170


LD: 52.9% (+38.1)
Con: 38.5% (-21.7)
Lab: 3.7% (-15.9)
Grn: 2.5% (-1.3)
Reform UK: 1.1% (+1.1)
UKIP: 0.6% (-1.1)