UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[MABA 2020]

It seems at this point the only result that would turn any heads would be if the lib dems don't win. The Tories losing is a foregone conclusion for most.

[MABA 2020]

Great result, looking forward to 2024

[MABA 2020]

Johnson has resigned. If Labour fail to flip Uxbridge something unusual will need to have happened.

Oh wow okay didn't expect that one

[MABA 2020]

Does anyone think the Tories will win any of the seats on Thursday?

[MABA 2020]

These results suggest Labour will win a majority if nothing changes, which has been clear for a while.

A hung parliament is not likely

[MABA 2020]

One of the funniest, pettiest resignation letter I've ever read.

Her letter reaches Truss levels of delusion

[MABA 2020]

Looks like Mid Bed will be excitingly close

[MABA 2020]

Looks like Mid Bed will be excitingly close

Possibly, though odds aren't always the most accurate indicator of what's going on on the ground. (See Chesham & Amersham, where the Tories were overwhelming favourites with the betting markets but weren't even close to holding the seat; the markets were also "wrong" in Batley & Spen and Uxbridge & South Ruislip in the sense that the favourite did not win but those were close results and the markets did suggest a reasonable probability of the seats being held.)

As it happens since the tweet quoted above the markets have moved back in the Lib Dems' favour a little.  But I don't know whether the people putting money on them have any idea what is actually happening in Mid Bedfordshire.

Of course, my comment wasn't just based on the betting market, but on the fact you hear different things from different people and this one is being seriously contested by both Lib Dems and Labour

[MABA 2020]

Would almost be good if the Tories win Mid Beds through a three way split and then continue to meme themselves into thinking that means they can still win the next election.

[MABA 2020]

It’s been briefed overnight that the Tories are fine because ‘Starmer isn’t Blair so it won’t be 1997’(the fun counter is that 2024 could end up in political memory as being worse!) and that voters really want tax cuts and flights to Rwanda. What a strange party.

Also people were saying the same things about Blair before 97, that he wasn't inspiring voters.