GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Tekken_Guy]

Ah Tim Scott, the only non-Murkowski Republican running for Senate this year whom Atlas endorsed.

I imagine the streak continues in 2024 because I envision Romney getting the Atlas endorsement. And if Menendez and Sinema win their primaries I can see them being snubbed.

Not if the AZ GOP nominates some far-right lunatic, and given what happened this year...

In AZ I mean a third party getting the endorsement Howie Hawkins 2014 style.

[Adam Griffin]

Ah Tim Scott, the only non-Murkowski Republican running for Senate this year whom Atlas endorsed.

Continuing her record!

https://uselectionatlas.org/ENDORSE/SENATE/2016/endorse.php

Ah Tim Scott, the only non-Murkowski Republican running for Senate this year whom Atlas endorsed.

I imagine the streak continues in 2024 because I envision Romney getting the Atlas endorsement. And if Menendez and Sinema win their primaries I can see them being snubbed.

https://uselectionatlas.org/ENDORSE/SENATE/2018/endorse.php

Atlas endorsed Hugin in 2018!


Non-"Democrats" endorsed by Atlas for Senate:

2010: Hoeven, Thune; Gray (G), Clements (G) & Crist (I)
2012: Sanders (I) & King (I)
2014: Alexander, Collins; Orman (I), Williams (O)
2016: Murkowski
2018: Hugin; De Leon (D*), Sanders (I) & King (I)
2020: Sasse; Harrington (L)
2022: Scott; McMullin (I)

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

It's interesting that my precinct in Forsyth County very closely approximates the overall new GA-6 vote. Walker won it 55.6% - 44.4% vs. 55.8% - 44.2% district wide.

If my precinct represents the tipping point for the district, the trendlines do not look great for Rs holding onto the district until 2030. It's swung 51 points D in the last decade, 23 points D since 2016, and 5 points in just the last two years.

The two-party vote has split approximately, Romney 81-18 in 2012, Trump 67-32 in 2016, Trump 58-41 in 2020, Walker 55-44 in the 22' Runoff.

That said, I do happen to think the new R congressman elect is fairly popular and likeable, so if he's savvy, it's conceivable he could outrun the base partisanship of the district and hold on for at least a few cycles.

Interesting how 6 and 11 swung 3% left even with an older and whiter electorate than 2020. It will be interesting to see if Dems can crack these by 2028 or so. Obviously a GOP president midterm would be an absolute nightmare for the Georgia GOP.

[Yoda]

Hear why Marjorie Taylor Greene thinks Herschel Walker lost in Georgia ...

https://us.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/12/08/marjorie-taylor-greene-walker-election-runoff-ga-sot-ip-vpx.cnn

What a psycho.
She says that the GOP keeping her from campaigning for Walker, is why he did not win (and that it was an "insult to" her).
Unbelievable.

Well, she might have a point if you think about it. Putting MTG out there to campaign and give stump speeches for Walker may have made him look smart (or at least less dumb) in comparison.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Ah Tim Scott, the only non-Murkowski Republican running for Senate this year whom Atlas endorsed.

I think in part due to said scandal with the Dem. I for one gave no endorsement and wrote in Joe Cunningham.

[MillennialModerate]

As I said in another thread - I actually felt pretty optimistic about this race which is always scary… but I did - No one knew that though because I was subjected to the iron curtain for the crime of not sufficiently spreading the gospel of thou D’s shall landslide from now till the end of time. But I digress.

First, the election coverage mantra of making things sound like a horse race when it’s not really needs to stop. It was clear EVEN to me once it got to 80% and Atlanta was mostly not IN that Walker didn’t have enough votes to match Warnock.

Second, does anyone from Georgia have any idea of just how many more counties are on track to turn blue in the coming years? That circle of blue around Atlanta has gotten bigger and bigger over the last 5-10-15 years. Fayetteville was close to turning blue this year…. What’s the future look like?

I think if it’s a Biden-6 year midterm and Republicans run a NORMAL Republican then Osoff could lose in 2026. Beyond that I think it might take a red wave for a Republican to win state wide in Georgia.

Lastly, very grateful for what her organization has done but Abrams needs to exit stage because she can’t win statewide and a Dem winning that Governors mansion would be huge. With a good canidate Dems should be favored to win it in ‘26

[Antonio the Sixth]

Asking again:

Also is there anywhere we can find the demographic breakdowns (age, race, gender etc.) of early vs election-day votes, and how they compare with the same data for November?

[patzer]

Among GA-01, GA-06, GA-11, and GA-12, which are the best long term prospects for Dems?

I’d personally argue that the only truly safe districts for the Republicans for the coming decade are the 8th, 9th, and 14th. Given that the 3rd and 10th both contain the bulk of the growth of the southern suburbs of Atlanta.

Guess it depends on which of the pro-Dem trends are strongest. 6th and 11th rely on white suburban voters more (I suspect those are probably the districts in which Abrams will have ran most behind Warnock); I’d say the 6th would likely be a good place for Carolyn Bourdeaux to run in a future election if she wants to make a comeback to Congress. The 10th is probably the most likely aside from those two, but has a very strange coalition of black voters in the expanding south Atlanta suburbs, the Athens area which is largely liberal white voters, and rural black voters.

[wbrocks67]

Ah Tim Scott, the only non-Murkowski Republican running for Senate this year whom Atlas endorsed.

I think in part due to said scandal with the Dem. I for one gave no endorsement and wrote in Joe Cunningham.

I am honestly shocked Krystle Matthews even got close to 40%. She had $0 and after that scandal I figured she'd completely implode. She lost bigly but honestly for SC, I expected her to lose even further.

[Atlas Force]

Non-"Democrats" endorsed by Atlas for Senate:

2010: Hoeven, Thune; Gray (G), Clements (G) & Crist (I)
2012: Sanders (I) & King (I)
2014: Alexander, Collins; Orman (I), Williams (O)
2016: Murkowski
2018: Hugin; De Leon (D*), Sanders (I) & King (I)
2020: Sasse; Harrington (L)
2022: Scott; McMullin (I)

I fully expect Romney to join this list come 2024.

Also did you forget to list Murkowski for 2022?

[Tekken_Guy]

Among GA-01, GA-06, GA-11, and GA-12, which are the best long term prospects for Dems?

I’d personally argue that the only truly safe districts for the Republicans for the coming decade are the 8th, 9th, and 14th. Given that the 3rd and 10th both contain the bulk of the growth of the southern suburbs of Atlanta.

Guess it depends on which of the pro-Dem trends are strongest. 6th and 11th rely on white suburban voters more (I suspect those are probably the districts in which Abrams will have ran most behind Warnock); I’d say the 6th would likely be a good place for Carolyn Bourdeaux to run in a future election if she wants to make a comeback to Congress. The 10th is probably the most likely aside from those two, but has a very strange coalition of black voters in the expanding south Atlanta suburbs, the Athens area which is largely liberal white voters, and rural black voters.

I can't think of a case why the 8th would be competitive, but the 9th theoretically could be if Hall zooms leftward and Dems get Stalinesque margins out of Gwinnett. The 14th if the Cobb portion becomes deep blue and Paulding sees an influx of suburban Democrats.

[patzer]

I can't think of a case why the 8th would be competitive, but the 9th theoretically could be if Hall zooms leftward and Dems get Stalinesque margins out of Gwinnett. The 14th if the Cobb portion becomes deep blue and Paulding sees an influx of suburban Democrats.

Over a couple decades, one could make a case for the current 8th flipping in the event of Georgia becoming a solid enough Dem state that the migration patterns in rural areas reverse, with rural Republicans leaving and it slowly building up from 30% black to closer to 50%. Very much the least likely of all the districts though.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/oregon_report/status/1600447247270846464

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1600968548637364225

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1601041549399592960

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/oregon_report/status/1600447247270846464
https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1600968548637364225
https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1601041549399592960

I'm leaving Texas because it's not a Republican state anymore. I'll move to Massachusetts. At least it elected a Republican governor in 1970...unlike Texas! Massachusetts is clearly more conservative!

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/oregon_report/status/1600447247270846464

Another Republican needs a safe space. Sad!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA went blue in 1992 sorry to tell Newt all these battlegrounds have been won by either Clinton or Obama the only one now not battlegrounds are IA and IN, LA, WVA, AR and TN and KY, but soon SC is gonna be one as well as OH, NC, FL, TX, CO, VA, NV

Ted Cruz can be in for a tough reelection when Ds finally launch a Sen campaign because Biden is on the ballot that's why Brown gotta better chance than Ryan because OH isn't voting 20% to the right of Nation like it did in 22 and Colin ALRED or John Love can give Cruz a run for his money

[Adam Griffin]

Asking again:

Also is there anywhere we can find the demographic breakdowns (age, race, gender etc.) of early vs election-day votes, and how they compare with the same data for November?

All of the EV data statewide and by county can be found here: https://georgiavotes.com/

For the ED, the state will release precinct & county data by race/age/gender in a few weeks here: https://sos.ga.gov/page/georgia-election-results 

[Хahar 🤔]

Among GA-01, GA-06, GA-11, and GA-12, which are the best long term prospects for Dems?

I’d personally argue that the only truly safe districts for the Republicans for the coming decade are the 8th, 9th, and 14th. Given that the 3rd and 10th both contain the bulk of the growth of the southern suburbs of Atlanta.

Guess it depends on which of the pro-Dem trends are strongest. 6th and 11th rely on white suburban voters more (I suspect those are probably the districts in which Abrams will have ran most behind Warnock); I’d say the 6th would likely be a good place for Carolyn Bourdeaux to run in a future election if she wants to make a comeback to Congress. The 10th is probably the most likely aside from those two, but has a very strange coalition of black voters in the expanding south Atlanta suburbs, the Athens area which is largely liberal white voters, and rural black voters.

I can't think of a case why the 8th would be competitive, but the 9th theoretically could be if Hall zooms leftward and Dems get Stalinesque margins out of Gwinnett. The 14th if the Cobb portion becomes deep blue and Paulding sees an influx of suburban Democrats.

Hall is far enough outside the city that it hasn't yet moved left at all: in the first round in 2008, Chambliss won it by 42 points, while in the first round this year Walker won it by 44. I suppose what that means is that there's a lot of room for Democratic growth, but presumably the white flight has to go somewhere, and so far it's been collecting in Gainesville. Anecdotally, when a friend of mine mentioned that she worked with a guy who lived in Gainesville, the reaction among everyone was to make cracks about how he definitely hadn't moved there for the schools.

[Sol]

Among GA-01, GA-06, GA-11, and GA-12, which are the best long term prospects for Dems?

I’d personally argue that the only truly safe districts for the Republicans for the coming decade are the 8th, 9th, and 14th. Given that the 3rd and 10th both contain the bulk of the growth of the southern suburbs of Atlanta.

Guess it depends on which of the pro-Dem trends are strongest. 6th and 11th rely on white suburban voters more (I suspect those are probably the districts in which Abrams will have ran most behind Warnock); I’d say the 6th would likely be a good place for Carolyn Bourdeaux to run in a future election if she wants to make a comeback to Congress. The 10th is probably the most likely aside from those two, but has a very strange coalition of black voters in the expanding south Atlanta suburbs, the Athens area which is largely liberal white voters, and rural black voters.

I can't think of a case why the 8th would be competitive, but the 9th theoretically could be if Hall zooms leftward and Dems get Stalinesque margins out of Gwinnett. The 14th if the Cobb portion becomes deep blue and Paulding sees an influx of suburban Democrats.

Hall is far enough outside the city that it hasn't yet moved left at all: in the first round in 2008, Chambliss won it by 42 points, while in the first round this year Walker won it by 44. I suppose what that means is that there's a lot of room for Democratic growth, but presumably the white flight has to go somewhere, and so far it's been collecting in Gainesville. Anecdotally, when a friend of mine mentioned that she worked with a guy who lived in Gainesville, the reaction among everyone was to make cracks about how he definitely hadn't moved there for the schools.

It's interesting to me that white flight specifically would wind up in Hall County since Gainesville is in fact minority-majority, but I suppose it's more affordable than Forsyth or Cherokee?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Among GA-01, GA-06, GA-11, and GA-12, which are the best long term prospects for Dems?

I’d personally argue that the only truly safe districts for the Republicans for the coming decade are the 8th, 9th, and 14th. Given that the 3rd and 10th both contain the bulk of the growth of the southern suburbs of Atlanta.

Guess it depends on which of the pro-Dem trends are strongest. 6th and 11th rely on white suburban voters more (I suspect those are probably the districts in which Abrams will have ran most behind Warnock); I’d say the 6th would likely be a good place for Carolyn Bourdeaux to run in a future election if she wants to make a comeback to Congress. The 10th is probably the most likely aside from those two, but has a very strange coalition of black voters in the expanding south Atlanta suburbs, the Athens area which is largely liberal white voters, and rural black voters.

I can't think of a case why the 8th would be competitive, but the 9th theoretically could be if Hall zooms leftward and Dems get Stalinesque margins out of Gwinnett. The 14th if the Cobb portion becomes deep blue and Paulding sees an influx of suburban Democrats.

Hall is far enough outside the city that it hasn't yet moved left at all: in the first round in 2008, Chambliss won it by 42 points, while in the first round this year Walker won it by 44. I suppose what that means is that there's a lot of room for Democratic growth, but presumably the white flight has to go somewhere, and so far it's been collecting in Gainesville. Anecdotally, when a friend of mine mentioned that she worked with a guy who lived in Gainesville, the reaction among everyone was to make cracks about how he definitely hadn't moved there for the schools.

It's interesting to me that white flight specifically would wind up in Hall County since Gainesville is in fact minority-majority, but I suppose it's more affordable than Forsyth or Cherokee?

Yes, I know a number of people who work in Cumming or points south who can't afford to live in Forsyth, which is getting quite expensive, and commute from Hall County.  Traffic on highways 306 and 369 from Hall to Forsyth in the mornings tends to get really backed up.

[politicallefty]

I didn't see it mentioned, but look at the top 3 Republican counties by raw vote margin:

Cherokee R+39,653
Hall R+29,651
Forsyth R+27,850

Forsyth, safely secure in its spot behind Cherokee for some time now, drops out of the top 2.

[Adam Griffin]

Totals as of now. The fact that Walker leads among provisionals is something we've never seen before (but only 158 are recorded), but given the margin and absurdly low number of them, I'm thinking the bulk have not been reported yet.

Code:

Type Margin	Share
EDY 	R+13.78	46.11%
AIP 	D+15.60	48.55%
ABM	D+28.44	5.33%
PRO	R+1.26	0.01%

EDY = Election Day
AIP = Early In Person ("Absentee In Person")
ABM = Absentee by Mail
PRO = Provisional

[Adam Griffin]

Among GA-01, GA-06, GA-11, and GA-12, which are the best long term prospects for Dems?

I’d personally argue that the only truly safe districts for the Republicans for the coming decade are the 8th, 9th, and 14th. Given that the 3rd and 10th both contain the bulk of the growth of the southern suburbs of Atlanta.

Guess it depends on which of the pro-Dem trends are strongest. 6th and 11th rely on white suburban voters more (I suspect those are probably the districts in which Abrams will have ran most behind Warnock); I’d say the 6th would likely be a good place for Carolyn Bourdeaux to run in a future election if she wants to make a comeback to Congress. The 10th is probably the most likely aside from those two, but has a very strange coalition of black voters in the expanding south Atlanta suburbs, the Athens area which is largely liberal white voters, and rural black voters.

I can't think of a case why the 8th would be competitive, but the 9th theoretically could be if Hall zooms leftward and Dems get Stalinesque margins out of Gwinnett. The 14th if the Cobb portion becomes deep blue and Paulding sees an influx of suburban Democrats.

Hall is far enough outside the city that it hasn't yet moved left at all: in the first round in 2008, Chambliss won it by 42 points, while in the first round this year Walker won it by 44. I suppose what that means is that there's a lot of room for Democratic growth, but presumably the white flight has to go somewhere, and so far it's been collecting in Gainesville. Anecdotally, when a friend of mine mentioned that she worked with a guy who lived in Gainesville, the reaction among everyone was to make cracks about how he definitely hadn't moved there for the schools.

I mean...there are a couple of anomalous elections to which comparisons can be drawn that would make one think Hall hasn't shifted at all (2008-Senate & 2022-Governor, most notably), but there's a fairly consistent progression over the past 15 years that points to 7-10 points of leftward drift in most apples-to-apples comparisons. I think another reason why it can be easy to not notice is because so many counties to the immediate south have shifted by 3-4x that amount toward Democrats, so such a modest shift almost seems inconsequential by comparison.  

Even Abrams this year did 10 points better than Barnes did in 2010 (to be fair, it was Deal's home county). Biden did almost 8 points better than Obama '08 and 13 points better than Obama '12. Abrams '18 did 11 points better than Carter '14. Etc.

It's much like my home county (Whitfield), in that there's enough emerging Latino population to - usually, in higher-turnout contests - offset any backsliding felt elsewhere, even if Latinos have been drifting somewhat to the right.

Obviously Hall will not follow the same trajectory along the same schedule as places like Fayette or even Forsyth, but there's definitely some movement afoot. And again - being disproportionately reliant upon Latinos is always going to nerf your performance in any year not coinciding with a presidential election (let alone runoffs and special elections).

[Adam Griffin]

It's interesting to me that white flight specifically would wind up in Hall County since Gainesville is in fact minority-majority, but I suppose it's more affordable than Forsyth or Cherokee?

Southern Hall County is still rather exceptionally white and illustrates that the ethnic Latino diversity in Gainesville is not fueled by metro growth (rather, the poultry plants that have existed there for decades, much like such was fueled in Dalton by the textile industry). Gainesville is still its own metro area in effect & with its own culture.

Case in point:

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting to me that white flight specifically would wind up in Hall County since Gainesville is in fact minority-majority, but I suppose it's more affordable than Forsyth or Cherokee?

Southern Hall County is still rather exceptionally white and illustrates that the ethnic Latino diversity in Gainesville is not fueled by metro growth (rather, the poultry plants that have existed there for decades, much like such was fueled in Dalton by the textile industry). Gainesville is still its own metro area in effect & with its own culture.

Case in point:

I always thought the divide between Gwinnett and Hall was quite extremely, both in terms of partings and racial diversity dropoff.