GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

6 and 11 look like they will almost certainly be in play by the end of the decade. Even if Republicans control redistricting again after 2030, it’s hard to see them not conceding Dems another seat in this general area.

I wonder if/when the Georgia GOP starts pushing for a commission.

Under the current legislative maps, I don’t see Dems getting control of the state senate in any situation.  So at worst, we would be looking at fair maps for the 2030s.  Maybe Republicans agree to a commission sometime in the 2030s when they have nothing to lose.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

6 and 11 look like they will almost certainly be in play by the end of the decade. Even if Republicans control redistricting again after 2030, it’s hard to see them not conceding Dems another seat in this general area.

I wonder if/when the Georgia GOP starts pushing for a commission.

Apparently GA requires 2/3rds of both chambers to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot, so it would have to involve a substantially bipartisan deal.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

6 and 11 look like they will almost certainly be in play by the end of the decade. Even if Republicans control redistricting again after 2030, it’s hard to see them not conceding Dems another seat in this general area.

I wonder if/when the Georgia GOP starts pushing for a commission.

Apparently GA requires 2/3rds of both chambers to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot, so it would have to involve a substantially bipartisan deal.

I would think Dems would agree to that now and probably into the 2030s given what they agreed to in NY/CO/VA in similar situations.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

6 and 11 look like they will almost certainly be in play by the end of the decade. Even if Republicans control redistricting again after 2030, it’s hard to see them not conceding Dems another seat in this general area.

I wonder if/when the Georgia GOP starts pushing for a commission.

Under the current legislative maps, I don’t see Dems getting control of the state senate in any situation.  So at worst, we would be looking at fair maps for the 2030s.  Maybe Republicans agree to a commission sometime in the 2030s when they have nothing to lose.

It’s a tough carry but not impossible. Biden won 23 seats and the only only of those that seems remotely likely to be a liability is Albany based SD-12. Trump + 3 SD-48 in Gwinnett and Forsyth counties seems like it’s on narrowed time. You also have the 3 Trump + 10 northern Cobb districts. The final seat is the hardest, but 17, 45, and 46 may be doable.

The TX state she is truly impossible to see Dems cracking this decade cause Rs were actually able to stretch districts far out of the suburbs into the rurals. That isn’t the case in GA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, white females flipped from R to D due to all the scandals like Fuetes, Griner and SSM, SSM is more important than to men due to more accepting to be gay as women

Especially, OH, NC and FL if SSM, Griner and Fuentes happened prior to Nov the Ds would have won but we have 24 Beshear is gonna win Stein is gonna win a we  have a pathway in 22 if McCarthy is denied SPEAKER or 24 for a Filibuster proof Trifecta

WARNOCK improved in the suburbs soccer moms if Abrams went to a runoff she would have win

[wbrocks67]

How much vote is left to be counted?

[South Dakota Democrat]

How much vote is left to be counted?

2 or 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

How much vote is left to be counted?

I don't know the numbers, but at this point it should be only provisional ballots (which must be cured by 5pm tomorrow to count) and late-arriving overseas/military ballots, which have the same deadline to be received.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Among GA-01, GA-06, GA-11, and GA-12, which are the best long term prospects for Dems?

6 and 11, definitely. This election's margins seem to suggest that as the decade goes on those districts will eventually flip.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

6 and 11 look like they will almost certainly be in play by the end of the decade. Even if Republicans control redistricting again after 2030, it’s hard to see them not conceding Dems another seat in this general area.

I wonder if/when the Georgia GOP starts pushing for a commission.

Under the current legislative maps, I don’t see Dems getting control of the state senate in any situation.  So at worst, we would be looking at fair maps for the 2030s.  Maybe Republicans agree to a commission sometime in the 2030s when they have nothing to lose.

Does Georgia have the power of a referendum which could create a fairy districting commission? Iirc for obvious historical reasons most southern states do not have referendum options.

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

6 and 11 look like they will almost certainly be in play by the end of the decade. Even if Republicans control redistricting again after 2030, it’s hard to see them not conceding Dems another seat in this general area.

I wonder if/when the Georgia GOP starts pushing for a commission.

Under the current legislative maps, I don’t see Dems getting control of the state senate in any situation.  So at worst, we would be looking at fair maps for the 2030s.  Maybe Republicans agree to a commission sometime in the 2030s when they have nothing to lose.

Does Georgia have the power of a referendum which could create a fairy districting commission? Iirc for obvious historical reasons most southern states do not have referendum options.

Why do fairies need to be redistricted?

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

6 and 11 look like they will almost certainly be in play by the end of the decade. Even if Republicans control redistricting again after 2030, it’s hard to see them not conceding Dems another seat in this general area.

I wonder if/when the Georgia GOP starts pushing for a commission.

Under the current legislative maps, I don’t see Dems getting control of the state senate in any situation.  So at worst, we would be looking at fair maps for the 2030s.  Maybe Republicans agree to a commission sometime in the 2030s when they have nothing to lose.

It’s a tough carry but not impossible. Biden won 23 seats and the only only of those that seems remotely likely to be a liability is Albany based SD-12. Trump + 3 SD-48 in Gwinnett and Forsyth counties seems like it’s on narrowed time. You also have the 3 Trump + 10 northern Cobb districts. The final seat is the hardest, but 17, 45, and 46 may be doable.

The TX state she is truly impossible to see Dems cracking this decade cause Rs were actually able to stretch districts far out of the suburbs into the rurals. That isn’t the case in GA.

It also helps that the GA Senate terms are 2 years, meaning the whole chamber is always up for election each cycle, while in TX the Senate has 4 year terms, lessening the vulnerability of the incumbents through the decade.

I think by 2030 the GA Senate could be competitive, but it'd probably be a 28-28 split and come down to LG tiebreaker (if Dems have any chance at all anyway).  A lot of those north metro districts are trending pretty fast.

[skbl17]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

6 and 11 look like they will almost certainly be in play by the end of the decade. Even if Republicans control redistricting again after 2030, it’s hard to see them not conceding Dems another seat in this general area.

I wonder if/when the Georgia GOP starts pushing for a commission.

Under the current legislative maps, I don’t see Dems getting control of the state senate in any situation.  So at worst, we would be looking at fair maps for the 2030s.  Maybe Republicans agree to a commission sometime in the 2030s when they have nothing to lose.

Does Georgia have the power of a referendum which could create a fairy districting commission? Iirc for obvious historical reasons most southern states do not have referendum options.

Georgia doesn't have voter-initiated ballot measures (except for recall elections in certain circumstances,) so any attempt to create an independent redistricting commission would have to come from the General Assembly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1600336618644127745

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I would not be surprised if GA-11 and GA-06 flip by the end of the decade. Heck even GA-10 with Athens and the far south end of the Georgia suburbs, not to mention a chunk of the black belt and Black Atlanta.

This might actually end up being a dummymander

[forsythvoter]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

It's interesting that my precinct in Forsyth County very closely approximates the overall new GA-6 vote. Walker won it 55.6% - 44.4% vs. 55.8% - 44.2% district wide.

If my precinct represents the tipping point for the district, the trendlines do not look great for Rs holding onto the district until 2030. It's swung 51 points D in the last decade, 23 points D since 2016, and 5 points in just the last two years.

The two-party vote has split approximately, Romney 81-18 in 2012, Trump 67-32 in 2016, Trump 58-41 in 2020, Walker 55-44 in the 22' Runoff.

That said, I do happen to think the new R congressman elect is fairly popular and likeable, so if he's savvy, it's conceivable he could outrun the base partisanship of the district and hold on for at least a few cycles.

[ProudModerate2]

Hear why Marjorie Taylor Greene thinks Herschel Walker lost in Georgia ...

https://us.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/12/08/marjorie-taylor-greene-walker-election-runoff-ga-sot-ip-vpx.cnn

What a psycho.
She says that the GOP keeping her from campaigning for Walker, is why he did not win (and that it was an "insult to" her).
Unbelievable.

[Inmate Trump]

Oh, it couldn't have been because he was a bad candidate.

if more folks in the metro area had been witness to Marge, they would've voted for Walker.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1600336618644127745

Not Milton County (which, if still existing, would be GA's seventh-largest county; 283k) swinging 40 points to the left in 10 years

[Adam Griffin]

Also, GA-1 & GA-12 (current and previous incarnations) have been effectively stagnant in terms of net swing/shift for a decade now. Half of each of these districts have been trending D, while the other half of each flies to the right.

Even when Jack Kingston was GA-1's congressman in like 2012, it was basically a 55-45 R split (though he personally did far better than the baseline; 60% or more of the vote). GA-12 (which isn't so different from the 2010s version) saw Romney win 56% in 2012 at the same time that Solid South D John Barrow won by 8.

It is still funny that GA-1 was more D than GA-6 or GA-11 this time (and GA-12 was more D than GA-11), though.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

NYT now has the Biden 2020 to Warnock December 2022 swing map, which is a lot more relevant in the long term than the November to December 2022 swing.

Lol that sea of red swings in neighboring swing states is amazing, Republicans really gained everywhere except where it mattered.

At least for SC you can pin it on a scandal with the D candidate. She said something about how you need to treat white people like trash.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

NYT now has the Biden 2020 to Warnock December 2022 swing map, which is a lot more relevant in the long term than the November to December 2022 swing.

Lol that sea of red swings in neighboring swing states is amazing, Republicans really gained everywhere except where it mattered.

At least for SC you can pin it on a scandal with the D candidate. She said something about how you need to treat white people like trash.

Also Tik Scott is uniquely popular and has the best constituency service of any Republican in the state

[Atlas Force]

Ah Tim Scott, the only non-Murkowski Republican running for Senate this year whom Atlas endorsed.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ah Tim Scott, the only non-Murkowski Republican running for Senate this year whom Atlas endorsed.

I imagine the streak continues in 2024 because I envision Romney getting the Atlas endorsement. And if Menendez and Sinema win their primaries I can see them being snubbed.

[Roll Roons]

Ah Tim Scott, the only non-Murkowski Republican running for Senate this year whom Atlas endorsed.

I imagine the streak continues in 2024 because I envision Romney getting the Atlas endorsement. And if Menendez and Sinema win their primaries I can see them being snubbed.

Not if the AZ GOP nominates some far-right lunatic, and given what happened this year...

Frankly, that's why I'm not so sure that Sinema is DOA in the primary or that she has no chance if she makes it to the general. Arizona Democrats are not going to let Kelli Ward or Wendy Rogers go to the Senate.