GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[President Johnson]

Seems like my prediction wasn't that far off. Congrats to the Rev, who ran an incredible campaign.

Are there any crosstabs already? What percentage of the black vote did Warnock win? I think it's fair to say that once again black women in particular delivered this amazing result!

Also Kemp did better with the African American vote then Walker did . This once again shows that this entire idea of the way to make inroads with a specific demographic is too pick someone from that demographic is utterly false .

It always was, in both directions. Obama did better with white voters than other Democrats. Even remember that Hillary was initially leading among blacks in 2007, and only after Obama won Iowa, a predominantly white states, African Americans began flocking towards him after they were convinced he can win nationally.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Seems like my prediction wasn't that far off. Congrats to the Rev, who ran an incredible campaign.

Are there any crosstabs already? What percentage of the black vote did Warnock win? I think it's fair to say that once again black women in particular delivered this amazing result!

Also Kemp did better with the African American vote then Walker did . This once again shows that this entire idea of the way to make inroads with a specific demographic is too pick someone from that demographic is utterly false .

It always was, in both directions. Obama did better with white voters than other Democrats. Even remember that Hillary was initially leading among blacks in 2007, and only after Obama won Iowa, a predominantly white states, African Americans began flocking towards him after they were convinced he can win nationally.

Oh I 100% disagree but that really doesn't stop political pundits from saying otherwise. The best way to look at this is seeing how pundits cover VP selections as when they analyze potential picks they always seem to jump to the conclusion that if a pick is from a certain demographic they will help the nominee with that demographic.

Like BTW when Kamala was picked , so many pundits assumed she would help Biden with Indian Americans but Biden ended up doing worse with Indian Americans than either Hillary or Obama did.

[Adam Griffin]

Pretty insane how much this area alone continues to be able to shift. Over 40% of the state's vote in an average election - enough to move the entire state 6 points to the left over the past 6 years.

Warnock won this by 44 points (71.8-28.2).

Clinton won this by 29 points (62.5-34.0).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Going from David Letterman to the most milquetoast version of Colbert....sad

This looks exactly like the kind of thing David Letterman would run in the last 5-10 years of hosting

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1600543160110878720

[President Johnson]

Perhaps it's premature to say this, but unless Warnock successfully runs for president or vice president, he might be a lifer in the senate. Or at least stay on as long as he wants to, given the state's trend and his strong local brand.

He and Kelly might mirror each other in a sense. Ironically, both also won with 51.4% of the vote this year, according to Wikipedia.

[Gracile]

North Fulton remains one of the swingiest parts of the Atlanta metro:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1600516495662088195

[Florida Man for Crime]

The best was that annoying Republican (not Josh Holmes but something similar) who is always on their panels saying something like "after this midterm, voters clearly want new leaders and new blood" trying to equate Biden and Trump and how both should step aside in 2024, as if Biden did not just deliver an incredible midterm performance! Absolute insanity.

You can be positive about Biden and support him etc if you like him, but let's get real here - Biden did not in fact deliver an incredible midterm performance. By that, I don't mean that Dems didn't do well in the midterms (and I agree that at least under the circumstances and relative to expectations it would be fair to call it "incredible"), but it just means that Biden was not personally responsible for it, and it is silly and unfounded to attribute it to him personally.

Biden had subpar approval ratings in the 40s of the sort which in the past co-occured with large scale losses. If Biden actually had positive approvals, you could maybe make some sort of argument, but that was not the case in exit polls (exit polls are not perfectly reliable, but they are reliable enough for this broad statement). Exit polls also had a supermajority of voters that said they didn't think that Biden should run again. Voters may or may not have been right about that and obviously it is up to Biden, not them, whether he runs, but undeniably that is what midterm voters thought.

The reasons why Dems did relatively well in the midterms were not Biden, but primarily Trump and Dobbs.

If you really want to give Biden credit for something, I suppose you could correctly say that he did not sign any major, important, and controversial legislation like Obamacare or something which could have alienated and fired up some voters in opposition to him and in opposition to Democrats. However, it would be a pretty bizarre thing to give Biden "credit" for, because it is not what he wanted to do, but instead was forced on him by the fact that Dems had only a 51-50 advantage in the Senate which was subject to Manchin and Sinema, which made it impossible to get anything significant passed which truly changed the trajectory the country was on or addressed and decisively dealt with a major issue.

[Figueira]

NYT now has the Biden 2020 to Warnock December 2022 swing map, which is a lot more relevant in the long term than the November to December 2022 swing.

[wbrocks67]

The best was that annoying Republican (not Josh Holmes but something similar) who is always on their panels saying something like "after this midterm, voters clearly want new leaders and new blood" trying to equate Biden and Trump and how both should step aside in 2024, as if Biden did not just deliver an incredible midterm performance! Absolute insanity.

You can be positive about Biden and support him etc if you like him, but let's get real here - Biden did not in fact deliver an incredible midterm performance. By that, I don't mean that Dems didn't do well in the midterms (and I agree that at least under the circumstances and relative to expectations it would be fair to call it "incredible"), but it just means that Biden was not personally responsible for it, and it is silly and unfounded to attribute it to him personally.

Biden had subpar approval ratings in the 40s of the sort which in the past co-occured with large scale losses. If Biden actually had positive approvals, you could maybe make some sort of argument, but that was not the case in exit polls (exit polls are not perfectly reliable, but they are reliable enough for this broad statement). Exit polls also had a supermajority of voters that said they didn't think that Biden should run again. Voters may or may not have been right about that and obviously it is up to Biden, not them, whether he runs, but undeniably that is what midterm voters thought.

The reasons why Dems did relatively well in the midterms were not Biden, but primarily Trump and Dobbs.

If you really want to give Biden credit for something, I suppose you could correctly say that he did not sign any major, important, and controversial legislation like Obamacare or something which could have alienated and fired up some voters in opposition to him and in opposition to Democrats. However, it would be a pretty bizarre thing to give Biden "credit" for, because it is not what he wanted to do, but instead was forced on him by the fact that Dems had only a 51-50 advantage in the Senate which was subject to Manchin and Sinema, which made it impossible to get anything significant passed which truly changed the trajectory the country was on or addressed and decisively dealt with a major issue.

Biden's approval rating or asking if people want him to run again are not really relevant here. Biden was the one who refused to back down in making election integrity and fighting for democracy, along with abortion rights, a central theme to the midterm elections. He literally did a massive speech on it the week before the election. Turns out, it was incredibly prescient. You can't just remove him from this and say, hey, you oversaw this election and determined a lot of the ultimate messaging, but your approval was only 44% so we're not giving you any credit.

Just like the "somewhat disapprovers", there is no reason to take the "do you want to see Biden run again?" question seriously, given that there's a huge chunk of people who say "no" right now but would ultimately vote for him given the option or a one-on-one against a Republican.

To try and act like he is on the same level as Trump is ludicrous. Biden has objectively been an incredibly strong first time president, but he just should not run again, when nearly every other first termer has because.... reasons? That line of thinking is ridiculous.

[wbrocks67]

Seems like my prediction wasn't that far off. Congrats to the Rev, who ran an incredible campaign.

Are there any crosstabs already? What percentage of the black vote did Warnock win? I think it's fair to say that once again black women in particular delivered this amazing result!

Unfortunately we did not get an exit poll this time, but people are musing that Warnock got a bigger share of the black vote than in November:

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1600581685904478208

[Pericles]

NYT now has the Biden 2020 to Warnock December 2022 swing map, which is a lot more relevant in the long term than the November to December 2022 swing.

Lol that sea of red swings in neighboring swing states is amazing, Republicans really gained everywhere except where it mattered.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

Perhaps Hispanic dropoff, similar to what happened in West Texas?

Are there so many Hispanics living at Georgia's Appalachian counties?

It’s like 10%, but that could def matter around the margins.

There are 10% Hispanics in the entire state but I'd expect the vast majority of them to live in Atlanta, not Rabun county.

you'd say that about northwestern SC too but there's a surprising number of hispanics in my home area. Plenty of check-cashing places with signs mostly in spanish, as an example.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Approvals are garbage anyways

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I am thankful for Warnock's patience tbh..he has now been involved in 4 different Senate campaigns in span of 2 years...we usually see how a single swing state Senate campaign itself can be gruelling, it's amazing that Warnock was involved in four such campaigns in just 2 years. It must have been exhausting

He joked about it during his victory speech.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1600467720234991618
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1600469151390187521
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1600483934441279491

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro apparently Warnock won most precincts in eastern Cobb, almost every Henry and Gwinnett precinct, and a few precincts in Cherokee County. That’s actually insane

[Progressive Pessimist]

I didn't post here since last night, shortly after polls first closed, but I'm kind of glad that I decided to avoid watching the returns as they came in. Even though the result is almost exactly what I predicted (I was off by .1% in both directions-still rare for me to ever get that close!) I don't think I could have taken the suspense if going back a ways in this thread is any indication.

But anyway, for me it wasn't disturbingly closer than expected and is still a solid result in a state that will probably only get more favorable for Democrats from here on out. Stay peachy Georgia! Thanks for sending Walker back to Texas or Transylvania, or wherever. You're (mostly) a bastion of sanity in the Deep South, especially compared to your neighbor who will remain unnamed.

And as much as Walker is a mouth-breathing, amoral hypocrite I will hand it to him for graciously conceding. It was actually the best result for him to lose just as much as it was for Georgia to not have to face the humiliation of being represented by him for six years. He seemed to enjoy campaigning but he would have been unhappy and sorely out-of-place in the job of Senator much like Trump in being President. Sure he enjoyed the title and the perks, but he doesn't give a rat's ass about policy or public service. But I digress, Walker is now spared of his obligation to please his friend, Trump now. I'd be more than happy to hear him out if he ever starts up a movie review podcast. I think that is what his future holds. Forget politics for everyone's sake, Herschel!

Also, I know Warnock still has work to do in the Senate, but nobody deserves a vacation more than him. Four elections in two years!? That sounds exhausting.

[Spectator]

For all the talk about north Georgia rurals swinging to Walker, that's probably the area where Kemp would have the greatest effect on getting those skeptical of Walker to pull the lever of him. His purported "operation" was probably strongest there.

As for the precincts of counties, how are you all getting them? The SOS downloads aren't working for me.

[dougbasedrino]

I would have voted for both MTG and Warnock lol

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Bro apparently Warnock won most precincts in eastern Cobb, almost every Henry and Gwinnett precinct, and a few precincts in Cherokee County. That’s actually insane

If democrats start to get around 40% in Cherokee County then I think republicans will be done in Georgia

[Adam Griffin]

For all the talk about north Georgia rurals swinging to Walker, that's probably the area where Kemp would have the greatest effect on getting those skeptical of Walker to pull the lever of him. His purported "operation" was probably strongest there.

As for the precincts of counties, how are you all getting them? The SOS downloads aren't working for me.

Some of the bigger counties have integrated precinct result maps in the SoS data: click on "counties reporting" and then click on counties like Fulton, Gwinnett, etc.

Bro apparently Warnock won most precincts in eastern Cobb, almost every Henry and Gwinnett precinct, and a few precincts in Cherokee County. That’s actually insane

And here's Cobb. Wow:

[Adam Griffin]

I didn't post here since last night, shortly after polls first closed, but I'm kind of glad that I decided to avoid watching the returns as they came in. Even though the result is almost exactly what I predicted (I was off by .1% in both directions-still rare for me to ever get that close!) I don't think I could have taken the suspense if going back a ways in this thread is any indication.

...are we past the point where people are panicking (like in November) because ruby-red county ED vote dumped T+2 hours in while more D vote is outstanding? I hope so.

Narrator: they were not.

[S019]

Bro apparently Warnock won most precincts in eastern Cobb, almost every Henry and Gwinnett precinct, and a few precincts in Cherokee County. That’s actually insane

If democrats start to get around 40% in Cherokee County then I think republicans will be done in Georgia

Given Cherokee was literally R+40 in 2020 narrowing it to R+20 would literally make GA a safe blue state given what it implies about the Atlanta metro counties, in general.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro apparently Warnock won most precincts in eastern Cobb, almost every Henry and Gwinnett precinct, and a few precincts in Cherokee County. That’s actually insane

If democrats start to get around 40% in Cherokee County then I think republicans will be done in Georgia

Forsyth and Cherokee have traditionally been and still are the 2 biggest R vote nets in the state. In 2020, Trump net 100k between them. The GOP would have to make up those votes from somewhere else, but it's unclear where at this point.