GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[S019]

Unpopular? opinion: Perdue is probably one of the stronger GOP candidates out there and his entrance probably precludes a total crazy like Jody Hice or Marjorie Taylor-Greene winning the nomination. On the other hand, as we saw in 2021, crazy turnout in Georgia might fall if the candidate isn't sufficiently crazy, and Democratic favored trends, as well as the inelastic nature of the state, should make a Warnock a favorite. However, while Perdue may get lower rural turnout, he will not be utterly annihilated in the suburbs (I could see Democrats breaking 61% in Cobb and like 66% in Gwinnett if MTG was the nominee ). TL;DR, Lean D is fair for this, and the GOP won't be throwing it away immediately.

[S019]

Unpopular? opinion: Perdue is probably one of the stronger GOP candidates out there and his entrance probably precludes a total crazy like Jody Hice or Marjorie Taylor-Greene winning the nomination. On the other hand, as we saw in 2021, crazy turnout in Georgia might fall if the candidate isn't sufficiently crazy, and Democratic favored trends, as well as the inelastic nature of the state, should make a Warnock a favorite. However, while Perdue may get lower rural turnout, he will not be utterly annihilated in the suburbs (I could see Democrats breaking 61% in Cobb and like 66% in Gwinnett if MTG was the nominee ). TL;DR, Lean D is fair for this, and the GOP won't be throwing it away immediately.

Perhaps Georgia is gonna be like Wisconsin where the only the most insane and conservative republicans can win statewide by energizing the crazy nut job conservative base.

Again this creates the issue of getting utterly nuked in suburban counties, if Democrats start breaking 60% in Cobb, Republicans cannot win the state, given the rurals are nearly maxed out for them.

[S019]

Perdue is the king of suburbs and will absolutely go back to pre-Trump levels. Warnock is toast. /s

Nah, Rafael will win, but Kemp will win, there is gonna be split voting, FL Crist, OH Ryan, PA Fetterman

Upsets in NH with Sununu and Ron Johnson

Lololololololololololololololololololololol, Democrats aren’t winning Ohio

[S019]

Realistically, Doug Collins is the presumptive nominee.

He can somewhat unite the Trump base and the moderate Atlanta suburbanites.

But I still think Warnock would be favored.

You mean the moderate Atlanta suburbanites that are now voting for Democrats? Why would a right wing loon like Doug Collins win them back?

[S019]

This seat is not safe in a 51/49 Senate Herschel Walker leads WARNOCK 47/45 and Gov Kemp reduced access to Runoff VBM

Imagine thinking Trafalgar is a legit firm...

[S019]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1401872560325812230

Maybe Herschel Walker is sleepwalking to victory?

Or he just isn't gonna run?

If he doesn’t run, then Raphael Warnock probably survives by about 2%. .

Georgia has consistently trended blue each year since like 2012, I think Warnock wins by anywhere from 1-3, with that margin being pretty inelastic. It is possible Republicans win the state, but it's quite unlikely due to the state's inelasticity and rural/urban polarization. Simply, rurals are almost maxed out for Republicans and the Atlanta metro continues to trend D, this is not a good recipe for a Republican win.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1430267336238452745?s=20

It's very notable that the NRSC is not taking sides in this primary, and we've heard stories about them being less than pleased with Walker's possible run.

[S019]

Bro apparently Warnock won most precincts in eastern Cobb, almost every Henry and Gwinnett precinct, and a few precincts in Cherokee County. That’s actually insane

If democrats start to get around 40% in Cherokee County then I think republicans will be done in Georgia

Given Cherokee was literally R+40 in 2020 narrowing it to R+20 would literally make GA a safe blue state given what it implies about the Atlanta metro counties, in general.